Realization About MMA Gambling..

[marzwoody]

A lot is possible in an infinite universe, but trust me when I say that I am in no way, shape or form intimidated by your intelligence. But it's cute that you consider this a discussion btw.

The shit you're posting now about running and fuckin walking dead scenarios (the fock?) reminds me of my days in elementary school. There were kids that were big, and as such could fight.. and there were kids who could run. The runners (a.k.a. skinny bitches) would always provoke the kids that could fight, but only when they were outside.. for reasons that I hope are obvious. It's funny how the internet created similar social dynamics.

Anyway, this goddamn circus has gone on long enough. You were right about this being wasted energy, but I had a few good chuckles. Good luck with your life.

What about the kids who could run and fight?

[NunyaBidness]

Impressive numbers. I have double your unit size, and barely a quarter of that profit over 2013. Can I assume here that you bet on other sports beside boxing/mma as well? If not, you might be the best capper on here, given the small number of UFC events..

Being a good handicapper is the least important part of sportsbetting.

It's probably, the thing that gets the most people in trouble, in fact. Everyone thinks because they're a super-fan they see something that no one else sees. If that was the case Greg Jackson would probably be the richest MMA bettor on earth.

[PunisherIND]

A lot is possible in an infinite universe, but trust me when I say that I am in no way, shape or form intimidated by your intelligence. But it's cute that you consider this a discussion btw.

The shit you're posting now about running and fuckin walking dead scenarios (the fock?) reminds me of my days in elementary school. There were kids that were big, and as such could fight.. and there were kids who could run. The runners (a.k.a. skinny bitches) would always provoke the kids that could fight, but only when they were outside.. for reasons that I hope are obvious. It's funny how the internet created similar social dynamics.

Anyway, this goddamn circus has gone on long enough. You were right about this being wasted energy, but I had a few good chuckles. Good luck with your life.

lmao. reminds me of a fight i had in 3rd grade. this kid wanted to scrap. he was, lets say, an athletic and explosive type. so after school lets out, we meet up in the playground. the kid jabs me in the forehead and takes off running. hahah. still makes me laugh to this day. best part was when he showed up at my house later that night, with his mommy.

[Dwil125]

Being a good handicapper is the least important part of sportsbetting.

It's probably, the thing that gets the most people in trouble, in fact. Everyone thinks because they're a super-fan they see something that no one else sees. If that was the case Greg Jackson would probably be the richest MMA bettor on earth.

How so? I would think that would be one of the more important things along with bankroll management, hog analysis, etc. Being able to set your own lines that are sharper than the openers as well as having a decent win percentage appears to be the way to go in the long run?

[NunyaBidness]

How so? I would think that would be one of the more important things along with bankroll management, hog analysis, etc. Being able to set your own lines that are sharper than the openers as well as having a decent win percentage appears to be the way to go in the long run?

I'm not saying handicapping isn't useful, it certainly is right now. MMA betting is sort of in a sweet spot right now, where its large enough that books are opening up decent limits, but small enough that no one has taken the time to figure it mathematically yet.

There are some amateurs who are making attempts at doing so, and failing pretty miserably (see cagerank.com for an example), but eventually someone will do it.

Right now, all you need to be able to do is beat either Kalikas or Oddessa at the beginning of the week, but it won't be so easy down the road.

And some people here probably can't beat the openers; but there are still plenty of ways to beat the market without it.

[Beelzebubzy]

lmao. reminds me of a fight i had in 3rd grade. this kid wanted to scrap. he was, lets say, an athletic and explosive type. so after school lets out, we meet up in the playground. the kid jabs me in the forehead and takes off running. hahah. still makes me laugh to this day. best part was when he showed up at my house later that night, with his mommy.

hahah my crew of peeps call them Canadians

[Beelzebubzy]

I'm not saying handicapping isn't useful, it certainly is right now. MMA betting is sort of in a sweet spot right now, where its large enough that books are opening up decent limits, but small enough that no one has taken the time to figure it mathematically yet.

There are some amateurs who are making attempts at doing so, and failing pretty miserably (see cagerank.com for an example), but eventually someone will do it.

Right now, all you need to be able to do is beat either Kalikas or Oddessa at the beginning of the week, but it won't be so easy down the road.

And some people here probably can't beat the openers; but there are still plenty of ways to beat the market without it.

Because either a) the talent will be better, b) more sharps in the market realizing weaknesses or c) lines will be more boxing like?

[NunyaBidness]

Because either a) the talent will be better, b) more sharps in the market realizing weaknesses or c) lines will be more boxing like?

B Quantitative sharps will enter the market. I've seen a few smart guys making an effort, to no avail yet, but it will come.

And also C, to some extent. There are a specific subset of lines that have been wildly mispriced for years, those will come to an end sooner than everything else.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Betting on fights is silly.. no one has a crystal ball, no one knows the outcomes.. you can study footage until your head hurts if you wish, And look at stats, doesn't mean shit. i have been taking a beating lately and losing past few events like most other people i have seen post there picks on forum.. the over/ under round props have more success but really? your making chump change with that shit. no one is making life changing money betting on MMA.. just a bunch of bums that may or may not make money on somebody else's achievements. The only decent way is to bet a large amount on a fighter your very confident in winning. betting on events every two weeks like most on this forum (parlays etc) is for the birds / people who like losing money, it ruins the fights aswell as your invested in one fighter winning for your own interest instead of just enjoying the fight as it is. Just speaking the truth. and this variance you gamblers speak of is nothing more then an illusion designed to make you feel like you have some kind of control over how things turn out, (which you don't) Just felt like writing this.

Peace!

Kid loses his lunch money! Another pea brained idiot bites the dust!

[Dwil125]

How far down the road are you thinking?

[marzwoody]

Kid loses his lunch money! Another pea brained idiot bites the dust!

Was gonna remind you of the 33 units you lost the other week but then thought why bother? oh wait... too late..

[Beelzebubzy]

How far down the road are you thinking?

By the time Khabib Nurma finishes a fight

[Vaughany]

How so? I would think that would be one of the more important things along with bankroll management, hog analysis, etc. Being able to set your own lines that are sharper than the openers as well as having a decent win percentage appears to be the way to go in the long run?

Goes without saying tht Hog Analysis is most significant aspect. Everything else is secondary

[NunyaBidness]

How far down the road are you thinking?

Several years.

[TheCalculator]

Here's a few classic points (from Nunya):

1) Math is important
2) Line shopping is important
3) Having lots of outs is important
4) Not betting on or against fighters you've never heard of is important.

[MD]

Here's a few classic points (from Nunya):

1) Math is important
2) Line shopping is important
3) Having lots of outs is important
4) Not betting on or against fighters you've never heard of is important.

What do you mean by this?

[PunisherIND]

Here's a few classic points (from Nunya):

1) Math is important
2) Line shopping is important
3) Having lots of outs is important
4) Not betting on or against fighters you've never heard of is important.

yes to the first three.

I can think of exceptions to the fourth.

[NunyaBidness]

What do you mean by this?

Having a lot of books available to you.

[NunyaBidness]

yes to the first three.

I can think of exceptions to the fourth.

Agree, but I have said that.

What I meant is that you shouldn't be capping a fight based on the strengths of only one competitor. I think a lot of people who bet Mein never bothered to look into Perpetuo at all, for example.

The things you're talking about are completely unrelated to capping.

[PunisherIND]

Agree, but I have said that.

What I meant is that you shouldn't be capping a fight based on the strengths of only one competitor. I think a lot of people who bet Mein never bothered to look into Perpetuo at all, for example.

The things you're talking about are completely unrelated to capping.

that's true. i thought calc was listing general mma betting principles, and not specifically talking about handicapping.

[Bumdeal]

Agree, but I have said that.

What I meant is that you shouldn't be capping a fight based on the strengths of only one competitor. I think a lot of people who bet Mein never bothered to look into Perpetuo at all, for example.

The things you're talking about are completely unrelated to capping.

I'm guilty of this. I try to reel myself in but I find myself making bets for silly reasons at times, which puts me in the degenerate classification. I am a huge fan of Mein and Nurmy, as I was placing my bets I had a moment of clarity realizing I was betting almost exclusively on my excitement to see these two scrap, discounting their opponents entirely. Then I hit "Confirm".

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Agree, but I have said that.

What I meant is that you shouldn't be capping a fight based on the strengths of only one competitor. I think a lot of people who bet Mein never bothered to look into Perpetuo at all, for example.

The things you're talking about are completely unrelated to capping.

Or even worse they thought he was the other Perpetuo @ 170 Thiago.

[Wilbo86]

B Quantitative sharps will enter the market. I've seen a few smart guys making an effort, to no avail yet, but it will come.

And also C, to some extent. There are a specific subset of lines that have been wildly mispriced for years, those will come to an end sooner than everything else.

You think the sharps will be able to do it as well as they have for baseball and the other leages? I was wishfully thinking that the nature of the sport would limit the applicability of quant modelling. I was thnking smartmoney crwding out the rest would be more likely, too nieve?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Marzwoody and MD going hard at each other, you should both do one of those call out videos

[NunyaBidness]

You think the sharps will be able to do it as well as they have for baseball and the other leages? I was wishfully thinking that the nature of the sport would limit the applicability of quant modelling. I was thnking smartmoney crwding out the rest would be more likely, too nieve?

It's never going to be as tight as baseball. Baseball is the chess of sportsbetting, its penetrating solved, there's a reason why matchbook can hang -101/-101 lines on that. I think it will be beatable for a long time to come, but if I was a young kid making 25 - 30k on this thinking it was my job I would certainly be looking to expand my horizons.

I saw it happen with a lot of young guys in the poker world, dropped out of school, worked 2 hours a week, made 50 grand a year thinking they'd just do it forever, then the games dried up, they've got a 5 year hole in their resume, no education, no skills.

[MD]

Marzwoody and MD going hard at each other, you should both do one of those call out videos

You don't even want to know what V and our crew are going to do to his supple crevices.

We're going to butter his lady biscuits.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm guilty of this. I try to reel myself in but I find myself making bets for silly reasons at times, which puts me in the degenerate classification. I am a huge fan of Mein and Nurmy, as I was placing my bets I had a moment of clarity realizing I was betting almost exclusively on my excitement to see these two scrap, discounting their opponents entirely. Then I hit "Confirm".

And there's nothing wrong with that if your goal is to have some sweat on the fight and you can afford the stakes.

The problems come in when you think you're doing it 'professionally' but always happen to find reasons to bet on someone because they're the same race as you, or wrestled in the same school that you did, or whatever.

Being a fan is the hardest thing to get over in sportsbetting, like I stated a couple of weeks ago, I'm a huge fan of Kawajiri, but felt very confident that he was going to lose that fight. I mean, walk into your local sportsbar when the local ncaa team is playing and scoop up bets at even money when they're a 3 point dog, its easy money.

[Becel]

You pretty much nailed it when you said to only bet when you see a very clear advantage and that may not come on every event. I'm pretty much a sucker and bet on each fight even though I know its bad. The thing is though, I am good at recognizing when a fighter is completely outclassed and can get -300 or less.

An example was the Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida fight. I knew Guida had not even a punchers chance of winning as he had no punching power and there was no way he was going to out wrestle Chad and the initial odds were ridiculous. I knew it would be very clearly one sided. The thing is that it takes great discipline to only bet on sure winners and just sit and watch when you aren't sure.

I knew GSP was going to be a force that no one could touch for a long time and made some nice bank on him. He was actually a dog when he fought Hughes the second time and I loaded up. The trouble is that those sure wins don't make up for the all the "action" bets over the long run.

Discipline is really what separates the good gamblers from the bad.

Just for some help when capping a fight. Ask yourself.

Does the person you are betting against have a punchers chance? If so, bet lightly as MMA is much more offensively oriented than boxing.

Does the person you are betting against have a solid wrestling background and is fighting "knockout" artist? Bet lightly as wrestling is the predominant discipline in this sport.

Whats the cardio of the fighter you are betting against? MMA is still relatively new and a lot of these fighters are really cans and not really athletes. The classic example was Belfort against Couture waaay back in the day. No one thought Randy had a chance as Vitor looked unstoppable, but that wrestling background and cardio for days Randy punished him. And no, I'm not saying Belfort is a can, he is clearly not.

Anyway, just some thoughts.

[Wilbo86]

It's never going to be as tight as baseball. Baseball is the chess of sportsbetting, its penetrating solved, there's a reason why matchbook can hang -101/-101 lines on that. I think it will be beatable for a long time to come, but if I was a young kid making 25 - 30k on this thinking it was my job I would certainly be looking to expand my horizons.

I saw it happen with a lot of young guys in the poker world, dropped out of school, worked 2 hours a week, made 50 grand a year thinking they'd just do it forever, then the games dried up, they've got a 5 year hole in their resume, no education, no skills.

Yeah you don't want to be stuck there with no options when the tide changes, and no profitable angle will be open for ever. Surely given how short a fighters career is, how few relevant data points are out there and the general volatility an noise in what data is available will make and quant modelling pretty challenging. Either way, make hay while the sun shines i guess.

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah you don't want to be stuck there with no options when the tide changes, and no profitable angle will be open for ever. Surely given how short a fighters career is, how few relevant data points are out there and the general volatility an noise in what data is available will make and quant modelling pretty challenging. Either way, make hay while the sun shines i guess.

Absolutely, when I first started posting here it was to see if anyone was doing any work into it; I had just started working on modeling it myself, and wasn't getting much of anywhere.

The main problem is going to be that the type of data that needs to be collected isn't being tracked by anyone. You can't just lump in all strikes together the way they do in boxing. Even dividing it by head/body/leg or standing vs ground isn't enough.

Cagerank is a perfect example, they're trying to model based on fightmetric data, and its pretty much worthless.

[PunisherIND]

Absolutely, when I first started posting here it was to see if anyone was doing any work into it; I had just started working on modeling it myself, and wasn't getting much of anywhere.

The main problem is going to be that the type of data that needs to be collected isn't being tracked by anyone. You can't just lump in all strikes together the way they do in boxing. Even dividing it by head/body/leg or standing vs ground isn't enough.

Cagerank is a perfect example, they're trying to model based on fightmetric data, and its pretty much worthless.

from what i understand, fightmetric actually has much more detailed data that they dont provide to the public. gotta pay for dat shit.

[Becel]

MMA just isn't there yet. Most fighters work second jobs and a lot of them are basket cases Its also so new that a fighter may show vast improvement from one fighter to another. Its also so offensively oriented that a fight can change on a dime.

Cerrone is pretty much nuts and it looked like he was going to get his ass handed to him, but one stiff jab and a rear naked choke and its over. No standing count in this sport.

[Becel]

Another thing, you are looking for fight metrics that MMA judges don't care about. Leg kicks have no value at all. A desperate successful take down after a full round stand up beating at the end of a round, well you can pretty much give the round to that guy. Statistics don't matter in this sport

[Ron_Paul_2012]

You pretty much nailed it when you said to only bet when you see a very clear advantage and that may not come on every event. I'm pretty much a sucker and bet on each fight even though I know its bad. The thing is though, I am good at recognizing when a fighter is completely outclassed and can get -300 or less.

An example was the Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida fight. I knew Guida had not even a punchers chance of winning as he had no punching power and there was no way he was going to out wrestle Chad and the initial odds were ridiculous. I knew it would be very clearly one sided. The thing is that it takes great discipline to only bet on sure winners and just sit and watch when you aren't sure.

I knew GSP was going to be a force that no one could touch for a long time and made some nice bank on him. He was actually a dog when he fought Hughes the second time and I loaded up. The trouble is that those sure wins don't make up for the all the "action" bets over the long run.

Discipline is really what separates the good gamblers from the bad.

Just for some help when capping a fight. Ask yourself.

Does the person you are betting against have a punchers chance? If so, bet lightly as MMA is much more offensively oriented than boxing.

Does the person you are betting against have a solid wrestling background and is fighting "knockout" artist? Bet lightly as wrestling is the predominant discipline in this sport.

Whats the cardio of the fighter you are betting against? MMA is still relatively new and a lot of these fighters are really cans and not really athletes. The classic example was Belfort against Couture waaay back in the day. No one thought Randy had a chance as Vitor looked unstoppable, but that wrestling background and cardio for days Randy punished him. And no, I'm not saying Belfort is a can, he is clearly not.

Anyway, just some thoughts.

Finally someone who knows what their talking about when it comes to gambling on MMA!

[Sykes]

Cerrone did get knocked into Zombie mode, Dude is a killer, I bet against! always fun to watch.