Realization About MMA Gambling..

[marzwoody]

Betting on fights is silly.. no one has a crystal ball, no one knows the outcomes.. you can study footage until your head hurts if you wish, And look at stats, doesn't mean shit. i have been taking a beating lately and losing past few events like most other people i have seen post there picks on forum.. the over/ under round props have more success but really? your making chump change with that shit. no one is making life changing money betting on MMA.. just a bunch of bums that may or may not make money on somebody else's achievements. The only decent way is to bet a large amount on a fighter your very confident in winning. betting on events every two weeks like most on this forum (parlays etc) is for the birds / people who like losing money, it ruins the fights aswell as your invested in one fighter winning for your own interest instead of just enjoying the fight as it is. Just speaking the truth. and this variance you gamblers speak of is nothing more then an illusion designed to make you feel like you have some kind of control over how things turn out, (which you don't) Just felt like writing this.

Peace!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[NunyaBidness]

I debated on giving you a serious answer, but then realized you're not smart enough to understand any of it.

I think you're right that no one is making "life-changing" money, because in order to make a decent amount of money, you have to already have a decent amount of money.

[marzwoody]

I debated on giving you a serious answer, but then realized you're not smart enough to understand any of it.

I think you're right that no one is making "life-changing" money, because in order to make a decent amount of money, you have to already have a decent amount of money.

Go ahead and try me. ill keep an eye out for your reply,

[marzwoody]

By the way, I know that i am intelligent, because i know that i know nothing.

[NunyaBidness]

For starters, it isn't about 'knowing outcomes' whatsoever, its about defining a reasonable range of probable outcomes and betting anything that falls outside of that range.

A good handicapper is going to be wrong about many, many fights, and by wrong, I don't mean, loses a bet, I mean, caps the fight wrong, sometimes completely wrong. But, if you're good at doing it, it will all come out positive in the long run. Edge x Volume = Profit.

Every event in the world has some true probability of it occurring, either 0, 1, or somewhere in between. Even if no one knows what that number is, it still exists.

MMA is perhaps the easiest sport to prove that it is beatable. Most MMA lines move so much between open and close that the lines cross each other, for example the Cerrone/Barboza fight opened with Barboza at even money and closes with Cerrone +160, so, by mathematical necessity that line HAD to be off the true line at one or more points in its lifecycle.

[NunyaBidness]

By the way, I know that i am intelligent, because i know that i know nothing.

Your misquote proves that you don't understand what Socrates meant.

[marzwoody]

Your misquote proves that you don't understand what Socrates meant.

It wasn't a misquote and its pretty obvious what he meant, but whatever, if you want to make yourself look like a fool for the sake of an argument.

[Kermit]

I like to bet on dog lines that are close, but I feel should be closer. Or against fighters who are overrated and have lines that reflect it.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

this thread sounds like marzwoody is a defeated man. I'm guessing he had Barboza and was already counting his money then the hammer dropped.

[NunyaBidness]

this thread sounds like marzwoody is a defeated man. I'm guessing he had Barboza and was already counting his money then the hammer dropped.

I think you're right.

Some people when they can't succeed at something have to convince themselves that no one else can do it either.

[Beelzebubzy]

He last three months . wonder who drops next?

Pabst beer is the fav at -150

[NunyaBidness]

He last three months . wonder who drops next?

Pabst beer is the fav at -150

It's a strange pathos these guys have.

Day 1
"penetrate you guys, I'm the greatest MMA capper ever"

Day 30
"Does anyone know why I'm losing?"

Day 90
"Can I borrow some money? I promise to pay it back."

[NunyaBidness]

and this variance you gamblers speak of is nothing more then an illusion designed to make you feel like you have some kind of control over how things turn out, (which you don't)

This really is the key to the entire thing. Professional gamblers don't feel like they have any control over how things turn out, they try to get the money in good, and then the decision making process is done, whatever happens happens. You congratulate yourself on making a +EV and you're done with it.

Degenerate gamblers look for signs, reasons, and superstitions behind why things happen. The craps player turned around to pay the waitress one time and won, so now everytime the dice go out, he spins around at the table. The guy in the sportsbook thinks the Seahawks won because he was rubbing his cross. The poker tournament player continues to wear the shirt he wore on day 1, because its "lucky".

[marzwoody]

For starters, it isn't about 'knowing outcomes' whatsoever, its about defining a reasonable range of probable outcomes and betting anything that falls outside of that range.

A good handicapper is going to be wrong about many, many fights, and by wrong, I don't mean, loses a bet, I mean, caps the fight wrong, sometimes completely wrong. But, if you're good at doing it, it will all come out positive in the long run. Edge x Volume = Profit.

Every event in the world has some true probability of it occurring, either 0, 1, or somewhere in between. Even if no one knows what that number is, it still exists.

MMA is perhaps the easiest sport to prove that it is beatable. Most MMA lines move so much between open and close that the lines cross each other, for example the Cerrone/Barboza fight opened with Barboza at even money and closes with Cerrone +160, so, by mathematical necessity that line HAD to be off the true line at one or more points in its lifecycle.

Yeah this is something of the effect of what i was doing when i first started, strategy's based on probabilities.. if fight A fails ill most likely make money back with fight B etc. and had great success, every event i was winning money. but the downside was, maybe its just my mind or me being competitive or whatever, but it felt like i was over-thinking things way to much about the fights, i mean everyday, until the fights started. and obviously as time went on got sloppy and lazy, just wanted instant winnerz but most of all just got uninterested, and not giving it 100% of my attention. i have shit to do and things to sort out in my life. but this has been an interesting experience, and you are a grand master at this btw, way better than i am at this. maybe one day ill come back to this, as i'm still somewhat interested and if i can give it full or most of my attention.

[Wilbo86]

The books make their money on volume, and betting every single fight of every single event is a quick way to loose money unless you're a very proficient/experienced capper. That's a big mistake I think a lot of people make.

Reading your post it sounds like you're convinced its impossible to have an edge. As nunya pointed out, MMA is rife with mispriced lines. Save your bets for fights you genuinely think you have an edge in, whether its one per event or less, whatever the number is. If you don't have an edge, bet small money for enjoyment or not at all.

[Beelzebubzy]

Yeah this is something of the effect of what i was doing when i first started, strategy's based on probabilities.. if fight A fails ill most likely make money back with fight B etc. and had great success, every event i was winning money. but the downside was, maybe its just my mind or me being competitive or whatever, but it felt like i was over-thinking things way to much about the fights, i mean everyday, until the fights started. and obviously as time went on got sloppy and lazy, just wanted instant winnerz but most of all just got uninterested, and not giving it 100% of my attention. i have shit to do and things to sort out in my life. but this has been an interesting experience, and you are a grand master at this btw, way better than i am at this. maybe one day ill come back to this, as i'm still somewhat interested and if i can give it full or most of my attention.

I thought you do what you want when you want? What do you need to sort out in your life

[marzwoody]

this thread sounds like marzwoody is a defeated man. I'm guessing he had Barboza and was already counting his money then the hammer dropped.

Dude i am. last event i was convinced bisping was gonna win. he looked terrible.

Before the last event if someone said they were going all in on werdum, he would of been laughed off the forum, i mean insulted from everywhere, i think 70-80% of people were on browne. and werdum dominated 5 rounds.

Money Maker Tavares got steamrolled by Romero who looked anderson silva like in the octagon.

Honestly these were only "small plays" i made, but its just the principle of it. that if i had the money for big plays i could of lost a lot of money.

At this point i am just like WTF and WTF is the point?

[marzwoody]

The books make their money on volume, and betting every single fight of every single event is a quick way to loose money unless you're a very proficient/experienced capper. That's a big mistake I think a lot of people make.

Reading your post it sounds like you're convinced its impossible to have an edge. As nunya pointed out, MMA is rife with mispriced lines. Save your bets for fights you genuinely think you have an edge in, whether its one per event or less, whatever the number is. If you don't have an edge, bet small money for enjoyment or not at all.

Good advice.

[marzwoody]

I thought you do what you want when you want? What do you need to sort out in your life

I don't need to sort anything out.. because that would mean something was wrong in the first place. so wrong choice of words.. i just need to get somewhere and betting on fights would do me no benefit right now and would just distract me from something i temporarily have to get done which i don't want to do. hope that was vague enough for you

[NunyaBidness]

Dude i am. last event i was convinced bisping was gonna win. he looked terrible.

Before the last event if someone said they were going all in on werdum, he would of been laughed off the forum, i mean insulted from everywhere, i think 70-80% of people were on browne. and werdum dominated 5 rounds.

Money Maker Tavares got steamrolled by Romero who looked anderson silva like in the octagon.

Honestly these were only "small plays" i made, but its just the principle of it. that if i had the money for big plays i could of lost a lot of money.

At this point i am just like WTF and WTF is the point?

There is a bit of a sounding board problem in this forum. I've found that the nights I do the absolute best are when everyone here gets slaughtered. Sounds dickish, but thats not my intention.

[Sykes]

You obviously haven't heard if Luca fury, the best capper on planet earth, he left here cause he's to good for here. But he makes a living off of this prolly has a speed boat n shit..

[rosietop]

you have no clue, mma is a good sport to bet on, you are just not good enough. Instead of blaming yourself you think others suck as well lol ego tripping homie

bookies dont want my bets, they be running scared.

most people who post on forums are not professionals. who in their right mind would give out proven winning plays for free to the public? Do you work for free? of course not dont be stupid.

[marzwoody]

I will get back to my winning ways one day. this has never been just about the money for me, not a money driven or material person what so ever simply a fun hobby. and yeah i doubt anyone is making a living off betting on MMA, i looked at that Luca Fury's guys twitter feed, i wonder why hes constantly giving discounts for his service? because no one is buying that shit.

[Sykes]

I think nunya is part of the 0.01% is actually the real deal with this stuff, not MMA just gambling.

Could be wrong though.

[marzwoody]

you have no clue, mma is a good sport to bet on, you are just not good enough. Instead of blaming yourself you think others suck as well lol ego tripping homie

bookies dont want my bets, they be running scared.

most people who post on forums are not professionals. who in their right mind would give out proven winning plays for free to the public? Do you work for free? of course not dont be stupid.

STFU no ones running scared of your $2 bets and i have always said MMA / Boxing is the only good sport to bet on. you haven't been paying attention have you?

[rosietop]

I will get back to my winning ways one day. this has never been just about the money for me, not a money driven or material person what so ever simply a fun hobby. and yeah i doubt anyone is making a living off betting on MMA, i looked at that Luca Fury's guys twitter feed, i wonder why hes constantly giving discounts for his service? because no one is buying that shit.

I love Luca Fury. He claims all this "I have been on a hot streak", "undefeated", "high winning percentage" ,etc shit

then you go look at his bets and its square shit like a heavy heavy favorite who ends up having a really close fight like Minakov, Alex Garcia, Bocek where in hindsight the underdog was the proper bet, or its just a really obvious bet like clay guida over 2.5 lol, nothing "premium" about these bets at all.

you sign up for that shit to get a "premium" bet: clay guida to go over 2.5 @-400 I mean, really? cmon now..


Enough of my negativity, here's something positive, At least Luca Fury has a track record where he tracks all of his bets so I respect that and I also respect his passion for the grind to make videos, podcasts, twitter, etc, hes much more motivated than me and I respect that.

STFU no ones running scared of your $2 bets and i have always said MMA / Boxing is the only good sport to bet on. you haven't been paying attention have you?

Since bookies consider beating the closing line more significant than the amount you bet to limit you, your argument is just as valid as an elephant riding a pushbike. Go out in the world, read a few books have some respect for your elders than come talk to me. kiddo.

[Sykes]

Wish I could edit/delete my posts because this was getting good.

[Bumdeal]

This is good for you marzy. You started here claiming invincibility, telling everyone you had mma betting figured out. Now you see how easy it is to lose. It's unfortunate that you're too thick headed to learn from others here. You prefer first hand experience.

It's also amusing that this post was so close to exhibiting humility.. Right up until "if I can't succeed with my month of experience, it must mean no one can".

So close.

[Wilbo86]

Some further cryptic advice for you marz, try to be a fox and not a hedgehog. I'll let you do with that what you want.

[MD]

Some further cryptic advice for you marz, try to be a fox and not a hedgehog. I'll let you do with that what you want.

Someone's been reading those Pinnacle betting articles.

[Vaughany]

Haha

[Wilbo86]

Actually Nate Silver, but same dif i guess

[Cavendish]

and this variance you gamblers speak of is nothing more then an illusion designed to make you feel like you have some kind of control over how things turn out, (which you don't)

but most of all just got uninterested, and not giving it 100% of my attention.

The problem is your attitude towards sportsbetting. First you claim that because you are losing, it's impossible to correctly play the lines the bookeys put out. Later, you backtrack and claim you were losing because you weren't giving it your best. You designed both arguments to protect your ego.

If you want to move forward with this, it's important to realize that you suck right now, but that you can get better if you study the bets of more successful cappers, and especially the reasoning behind the bets. Something this forum thoroughly lacks these days, because everyone that posts (losing) analyses/picks gets spewed out by the legions of gutter retards on here.

I think nunya is part of the 0.01% is actually the real deal with this stuff, not MMA just gambling.

Why's that? Don't get me wrong.. I enjoy his posts a lot, in part because he's one of the few on here whose writing style suggests any form of education. Paragraphs motherfuckers! That being said, it's not as if he's posting his picks for all to see, so as far as I'm concerned his presumed success is all theoretical.

[MD]

The problem is your attitude towards sportsbetting. First you claim that because you are losing, it's impossible to correctly play the lines the bookeys put out. Later, you backtrack and claim you were losing because you weren't giving it your best. You designed both arguments to protect your ego.

If you want to move forward with this, it's important to realize that you suck right now, but that you can get better if you study the bets of more successful cappers, and especially the reasoning behind the bets. Something this forum thoroughly lacks these days, because everyone that posts (losing) analyses/picks gets spewed out by the legions of gutter retards on here.


Why's that? Don't get me wrong.. I enjoy his posts a lot, in part because he's one of the few on here whose writing style suggests any form of education. Paragraphs motherfuckers! That being said, it's not as if he's posting his picks for all to see, so as far as I'm concerned his presumed success is all theoretical.

It sort of touches back on the second point you made; his reasoning and mentality are those of a winning gambler. I discuss MMA bets with Nunya via PM quite often and I consider him to be pretty sharp, for whatever that's worth.

He does, however, have a thread where he posts random value lines from varying markets, and his plays are way up from what I'm aware. Welcome to the forum, by the way.