UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2 (March 23, 2014)

[MD]

It opened at +1400 and bestfightodds.com doesn't have it moving above +1700 (what it is now).

What a ridiculous thing to say. BFO is wildly inaccurate, they miss line changes all the time.

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah, it was at 450 yesterday. I went to play it then passed after seeing the drop.

Kushmoney's new account?

The line opened at 3:52pm today.

[NunyaBidness]

Where is that? The highest I've seen it is +1700

There are two people on this card named Santos.

[Skel]

There are two people on this card named Santos.

LOL. I thought he was referring to Leo Santos. Sorry.

[Sykes]

What a ridiculous thing to say. BFO is wildly inaccurate, they miss line changes all the time.

Its impossible to keep up with them, you wouldn't realize how messed up just providing the odds is. SB A had it J santos, SB B has J dos Santos, you gotta do shit to change that so it displays J Santos, and all the books are different, plus they just let you update x amount of times every x mins. Its a pain in the ass. If I put as much effort into slots or something id prolly be rich by now.

[covertops]

my plays so far (pending weigh ins)

Shogun ITD
Parke
Villante
Markes
Tausimov
Lahat
Perpetuo
Ferreira/CB o2.5
Jorgenson/Jussier ov2.5
Brando/Chope o1.5

What y'all think

I think those are solid picks except Brando/Chope. I could see it ending early with chope getting tagged and KO'd quickly. Diego likes to come out swinging hard 1st rd although I think he has veered a bit form that strategy he will definitely pack the most power in the 1st rd and judging by Chope's last performance I don't think it will be too hard for a KO/TKO as skinny as he is.

Your picks with Ferreira/CB & Jorgenson/Jussier are both golden (all have amazing chins and I can see CB taking a few good ones to the jaw and still standing)

Honestly I feel that park is a LOCK. He is judo black belt so it will go to the ground when HE wants (which I think he will keep it standing) and his TDD is at 80%. Santos KO % is only 13% which he has 1 KO out of his 15 fights total he has weak hands. I don't see him being able to get the fight to the ground unless parke gets stupid (which I rate him a 9/10 with his fight intelligence). He is like GSP he fights only to win (even if its boring).

[begood2]

Brandao fight is cancelled because Chope is a wife beater. Parlay is ****** now

[PunisherIND]

all FOTN bets focked also

[Beelzebubzy]

Nothing

[whipton]

@whipthecapper
2014 SBR Record: 3-4 (+2.5 Units)

UFC Fight Night 38 Play
====================

Dan Henderson/Mauricio Rua Over 2½ (-160) 1.6 Units for 1 Unit

Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-150) 3.75 for 5 Units *wager restriction on opening

Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-195) 3 for 3.4 Units

*Parlay Ronny Markes (-705) x Scott Jorgensen( -210) 2 Units for 1.4 Units

*Brandao now off the card. Readjusted the parlay.

[yisman]

Brandao fight is cancelled because Chope is a wife beater. Parlay is ****** now

☯ Surfer Ken©™ ☯ <s>@</s>SurferKenLive <small class="time"> 1m </small> Will Chope cut from UFC. Supposedly threatened his ex-wife with a knife. Diego threatened to stab Poirier. Let's have a Beat It Knife Fight!

[mirinquads]

Rua ITD +130 is a bad bet. Hendo still has an iron chin, and wasnt truly out against Vitor even after getting absolutely blasted multiple times.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

☯ Surfer Ken©™ ☯ <s>@</s>SurferKenLive <small class="time"> 1m </small> Will Chope cut from UFC. Supposedly threatened his ex-wife with a knife. Diego threatened to stab Poirier. Let's have a Beat It Knife Fight!

Fight cancelled because of an incident that happened in 2009! So the UFC only now just figured this sh!t out! Brandao @ -320! I am so f*cking pissed! I will NEVER buy another UFC pay per view again! Never!

[Vaughany]

Fight cancelled because of an incident that happened in 2009! So the UFC only now just figured this sh!t out! Brandao @ -320! I am so f*cking pissed! I will NEVER buy another UFC pay per view again! Never!

Lol its just beyond ridiculous and shambolic. Why werent they aware of this before today?!

[Vaughany]

I think those are solid picks except Brando/Chope. I could see it ending early with chope getting tagged and KO'd quickly. Diego likes to come out swinging hard 1st rd although I think he has veered a bit form that strategy he will definitely pack the most power in the 1st rd and judging by Chope's last performance I don't think it will be too hard for a KO/TKO as skinny as he is.

Your picks with Ferreira/CB & Jorgenson/Jussier are both golden (all have amazing chins and I can see CB taking a few good ones to the jaw and still standing)

Honestly I feel that park is a LOCK. He is judo black belt so it will go to the ground when HE wants (which I think he will keep it standing) and his TDD is at 80%. Santos KO % is only 13% which he has 1 KO out of his 15 fights total he has weak hands. I don't see him being able to get the fight to the ground unless parke gets stupid (which I rate him a 9/10 with his fight intelligence). He is like GSP he fights only to win (even if its boring).

Certainly right about tht. Nice call Sir

[NunyaBidness]

Fight cancelled because of an incident that happened in 2009! So the UFC only now just figured this sh!t out! Brandao @ -320! I am so f*cking pissed! I will NEVER buy another UFC pay per view again! Never!

If that makes you "so penetrating pissed" you're going to have a tough time in your life.

[Dwil125]

I'm surprised they didn't know before either. I'm guessing he gets paid his show money.

[getlucky2win]

Seems like my undr bet should b a winner. It went way less than 1.5 rnds

[NunyaBidness]

Seems like my undr bet should b a winner. It went way less than 1.5 rnds

I send you 100 points today if you try to convince Tony of that and post the chat log.

[PunisherIND]

I send you 100 points today if you try to convince Tony of that and post the chat log.

i'll throw 50 in the pot

[marzwoody]

So what happens now that brandao is off the card?? i still have bets pending on him. will my parlays just continue with him not included?

[bjpenn85]

Yep, or thats at least how 5dimes do it

[getlucky2win]

I don't wanna draw any attention to my acct or I'd do it

[yisman]

yes, one leg being voided does not void the rest of the parlay. If it was a 5 teamer, it's still action as a 4 teamer.

[yisman]

Seems like my undr bet should b a winner. It went way less than 1.5 rnds

[NunyaBidness]

I don't wanna draw any attention to my acct or I'd do it

Alright, 100 points to anyone who does it.

[Vaughany]

Haha ill throw in a point as well #nonproproblemz

[Vaughany]

I'm surprised they didn't know before either. I'm guessing he gets paid his show money.

Yee brandao is getting show and win money, and a fight in april

[Ron_Paul_2012]

If that makes you "so penetrating pissed" you're going to have a tough time in your life.

Actually I have a wonderful life. Not much goes wrong in it. So missing out on a big unit play for what I consider an invalid reason made me momentarily angry. The anger left me as soon as I expressed it and pushed the ENTER key. It is not healthy to repress one's emotion's especially negative emotions. Repression can lead one to be a "paraplegic of the soul" which can manifest itself into a very concrete way. So you might want to pay attention to what I just said. All your little passive aggressive snipes at the posters on SBR are very telling. You need to let your anger go. Only then will you be able to heal.

[MD]

Rua ITD +130 is a bad bet. Hendo still has an iron chin, and wasnt truly out against Vitor even after getting absolutely blasted multiple times.

I disagree. I have Rua ITD, Rua in R1, Rua by KO, and Won't Start Round 3. I do agree that Henderson's chin is still iron, but it doesn't really matter much, if Shogun continues to show the same improvement that he did in his last fight he should get a finish pretty early, and pretty easily.

[MD]

Actually I have a wonderful life. Not much goes wrong in it. So missing out on a big unit play for what I consider an invalid reason made me momentarily angry. The anger left me as soon as I expressed it and pushed the ENTER key. It is not healthy to repress one's emotion's especially negative emotions. Repression can lead one to be a "paraplegic of the soul" which can manifest itself into a very concrete way. So you might want to pay attention to what I just said. All your little passive aggressive snipes at the posters on SBR are very telling. You need to let your anger go. Only then will you be able to heal.

Are you f-cking retarded?

[NunyaBidness]

I disagree. I have Rua ITD, Rua in R1, Rua by KO, and Won't Start Round 3. I do agree that Henderson's chin is still iron, but it doesn't really matter much, if Shogun continues to show the same improvement that he did in his last fight he should get a finish pretty early, and pretty easily.

Can I just mention the word Variance here?

[NunyaBidness]

Actually I have a wonderful life. Not much goes wrong in it. So missing out on a big unit play for what I consider an invalid reason made me momentarily angry.

You'll never make it as a gambler.

Can't live and die on a single play.

[MD]

Can I just mention the word Variance here?

If you think that how Shogun won his last fight, and why that's relevant here, has much of anything to do with variance, you need to re-evaluate how you view MMA.

You'll never make it as a gambler.

He lost his whole bankroll on one card a few months back, that ship has sailed.

[getlucky2win]

I didn't really see shogun improving much