UFC Fight Night : Gustafsson Vs Manuwa (March 08, 2014)

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Unless Manuwa can pull some voodoo Gus-breaking-his-foot-on-the-way-to-the-octagon type shit, hes getting choked out.

Stick to the chalk Ron, its your thing.

To the newbie low IQ untrained eye I suppose it may seem that way. However, my plays have nothing to do with chalk or dogs. I simply bet on winners. Hating because you're happy? Nah. You mad? Yes. Keep hating bro. It suits you.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

IMO gus looked so good against Jones because jones can't box and doesn't know what to do in boxing range apart from back away with one hand out-stretched. Other than that I agree with you. I'm playing Manuwa by KO, and thinking about hedging it with an over +2.5 rounds bet. Like you said, with Manuwa's aggressive striking i don't see Gus going all out for an early finish. I suspect, with nothing to base it on other than the intensity he throws with, that Manuwa could have cardio issues if it goes long enough.

Exactly! Knuckle dragger's like mirinquads simply say to themselves Gus almost beat Jones & Jones is champion therefore Gus can beat Manuwa. Ya know the thing is if it weren't for simple minded buffoons like mirinquads then the bookies would go out of business from guys like me. So even mirinquads serves a purpose in the grand scheme of things.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

easy win for Gus havent decided on Ko or points yet.
Pickett by Sub
Guillard to win on points.

[Dwil125]

Took Pickett/Seery U2.5 -130. Does anyone like Mitchell +150 over Igor?

[Skel]

I think Manuwa's being underrated big time. I'm not laying any money on him because I do think Gustafsson will win (and because I dislike betting against my favorite fighters) but the odds are off and this is certainly not an easy fight for Alex.
I actually think I'll play the over 2.5 at +115. I think Alex will be conservative, fighting from the outside (where I think he'll have difficulty generating enough power for a finish) and looking for takedowns to work on the ground (where Jimi's not a pushover). An early highlight reel KO by Alex is possible but unlikely.
I think Gunnar will win his fight but don't know if there's value there at -310. His opponent isn't great but he's tough, powerful and knows how to win. The over 1.5 at -165 might be a good bet.
I need to watch a little more tape on Latifi but I sense value in him at -105. His size and strength, along with his wrestling, should allow him to control Diabate. Judging by Latifi's build I'd say he probably has a good chin too.
I don't really know whether to touch Johnson/Guillard. These two know each other from training and they're both explosive enough to end the fight quickly. I do see more consistency in Johnson, though, and perhaps a better chin, so maybe I'll throw him in a parlay or something.

[Unwritten Law]

I like Manuwa in this one.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I think Manuwa's being underrated big time. I'm not laying any money on him because I do think Gustafsson will win (and because I dislike betting against my favorite fighters) but the odds are off and this is certainly not an easy fight for Alex.
I actually think I'll play the over 2.5 at +115. I think Alex will be conservative, fighting from the outside (where I think he'll have difficulty generating enough power for a finish) and looking for takedowns to work on the ground (where Jimi's not a pushover). An early highlight reel KO by Alex is possible but unlikely.
I think Gunnar will win his fight but don't know if there's value there at -310. His opponent isn't great but he's tough, powerful and knows how to win. The over 1.5 at -165 might be a good bet.
I need to watch a little more tape on Latifi but I sense value in him at -105. His size and strength, along with his wrestling, should allow him to control Diabate. Judging by Latifi's build I'd say he probably has a good chin too.
I don't really know whether to touch Johnson/Guillard. These two know each other from training and they're both explosive enough to end the fight quickly. I do see more consistency in Johnson, though, and perhaps a better chin, so maybe I'll throw him in a parlay or something.

Some good observations. Welcome to SBR. Hope to see more posts from you soon.

[Skel]

Thanks. What do you think of Manuwa by decision at +1000?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Thanks. What do you think of Manuwa by decision at +1000?

If it wasn't 5 rounds it would be a great play. +1625 was a good play. I'm not so sure about +1000.

[torrentzflow]

If it wasn't 5 rounds it would be a great play. +1625 was a good play. I'm not so sure about +1000.

really very little difference betwewwn +1625 and +1000

[mirinquads]

Exactly! Knuckle dragger's like mirinquads simply say to themselves Gus almost beat Jones & Jones is champion therefore Gus can beat Manuwa. Ya know the thing is if it weren't for simple minded buffoons like mirinquads then the bookies would go out of business from guys like me. So even mirinquads serves a purpose in the grand scheme of things.

Pictured: Ronni blowing up his girlfriend / betting account after another deflating event.

The Gus fight has little to do with Jones, they are stylistically very different fighters. The fight will likely be closer than the line indicates, but Gus wins it.

[mmaed]

I dont think the fighht will be that close. Does anyone not see gustafson taking him down? I have a feeling manuwa is not that great on the ground.

[Dwil125]

Does manuwa have bad tdd?

[Skel]

I dont think the fighht will be that close. Does anyone not see gustafson taking him down? I have a feeling manuwa is not that great on the ground.

He looked decent on the ground against Kingsbury and got Diabate down a couple times in their 1 round fight. I think Gustafsson's wrestling is being a little overrated since the Jones fight. I give him the advantage there for sure but it won't be a cakewalk.

[mmaed]

Yesh maybe i am looking at this one the wrong way. I just assume that because he is this former body builder turned mma fighter that has all his wins by tko that his ground game probably isnt that great. In regards to taking down diabate, that isnt too hard.

[mirinquads]

I dont think the fighht will be that close. Does anyone not see gustafson taking him down? I have a feeling manuwa is not that great on the ground.

Takedowns in Round 2-3 when manuwa is tired from throwing all those full power hooks.

Gus by sub.

[judochop87]

Gus ITD
Gus Johnson Pickett parlay
Maybe gunnar latifi gaudinot parlay
Maybe johnson guillard o 2.5

[marzwoody]

Lets keep it real guys, gus is most likely gonna win.

[NunyaBidness]

Lets keep it real guys, gus is most likely gonna win.

Look at the big balls on brad. Claiming a 4.5-1 favorite is "most likely gonna win."

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Takedowns in Round 2-3 when manuwa is tired from throwing all those full power hooks.

Gus by sub.

It's +275 on 5dimes. All in that sh!t bruhv! Get it while you can!

[latarianmilton]

Thanks. What do you think of Manuwa by decision at +1000?

if manuwa wins it will most likely be by decision, he's fighting at home in the uk so no home cooking. also gus has an unreal chin.

i see gus having a close fight until he stops manuwa. still im big on manuwa by decision, johson, and small on dibiate

[judochop87]

Nah brah. If manuwa wins it"'ll be in the first two rounds. most of his fights end in the 1st. Gus has great conditioning and chin and beats Manuwa in the later rounds. Gus ITD

[judochop87]

If you're going to bet Manuwa, do ITD or by KO, more likely to hit.

[Vaughany]

if manuwa wins it will most likely be by decision, he's fighting at home in the uk so no home cooking. also gus has an unreal chin.

i see gus having a close fight until he stops manuwa. still im big on manuwa by decision, johson, and small on dibiate

well thts on the basis if it's a close fight. Gustaffsson is going to be quicker, going to land more leg kicks, going to throw more punches, and if anybody goes for takedowns it will be him - and he should get them as well - Kingsbu was taking Manuway down!

[Vaughany]

Lets keep it real guys, gus is most likely gonna win.

[Vaughany]

He looked decent on the ground against Kingsbury and got Diabate down a couple times in their 1 round fight. I think Gustafsson's wrestling is being a little overrated since the Jones fight. I give him the advantage there for sure but it won't be a cakewalk.

Did he?

Have I been watching the same fight?! He looked like a turtle from what I can remember and if Kingsbu had any idea how to attempt an arm-triangle he could of put him in a a lot of danger...instead he just seemed to lie there on top of him in side control

[Vaughany]

I dont think the fighht will be that close. Does anyone not see gustafson taking him down? I have a feeling manuwa is not that great on the ground.

absolutely, where Gustaf has the biggest advantage so be dumb if he just stands with him

[Ron_Paul_2012]

2.75 units Manuwa straight

16.5 units Pickett straight

.5 units Pickett/Barnatt parlay

3 units Latifi straight

16 units Nelson straight

1.5 units Johnson straight

[Vaughany]

2.75 units Manuwa straight

16.5 units Pickett straight

.5 units Pickett/Barnatt parlay

3 units Latifi straight

16 units Nelson straight

1.5 units Johnson straight

What is tht on barometer scale?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

What is tht on barometer scale?

1 unit = 1% of bank roll

[mmaed]

1 unit = 1% of bank roll

Good luck with the pickett play

[mmaed]

absolutely, where Gustaf has the biggest advantage so be dumb if he just stands with him

Yeah i would think he would just hit the td. Work manuwa a little bit to tire him out and greatly improve his chances of victory. Even if he cant sub him right away he is out of his danger zone. Frankly i think he can sub him eventually. Like someone mentioned, kingsbury was handling him. Landi takedowns and all. Kingsbury isnt the most graceful either. Hes a big muscle bound football player. I think manuwa should be an easy win for gustaffson unless gustaffson fights to manuwas strengths. The only way i can see that happeni is if he wants to land some flashy standing knock out in hopes of impressing dana for the title shot.

[Thor4140]

Nah brah. If manuwa wins it"'ll be in the first two rounds. most of his fights end in the 1st. Gus has great conditioning and chin and beats Manuwa in the later rounds. Gus ITD

Gus looks to have a great chin but i think getting hit by this guy is a bit different than getting hit by Jones punches. Then again he did take a couple of huge kicks and elbows. To me this one has live betting written all over it. Gus gets caught with a bomb early its over. Gus starts dancing and picking him apart early it will prolly go a few rounds before Gus is just to much.

[torrentzflow]

i will be too busy live betting the preliminary fights

[Vaughany]

haha