Predicting Mayweather by KO against Canelo Alvarez
I'm coming out of retirement for this play ... at the SBR book of course. As an aside, I read an excellent article on SBR.com on the Mayweather vs Alvarez match, and couldn't have written it better myself.
But here's what leads me to believe Floyd by stoppage is the play:
As for those of you betting the moneyline, don't waste your money on Alvarez. The only fighter who can truly give Floyd trouble is one that fights and moves like himself. A guy that can for a period of 12 rounds move, get off first by beating him to the punch, control the middle of the ring, work off the ropes if he needs to ... essentially, someone built like himself with impeccable defense. He's absolutely not going to taste defeat to the likes of some big muscular, stationary, flat-footed 23 year old. This is the easiest fight he has had in years, do not believe the hype.
That's all I'll go into. Study the tapes, the answer is right in front of you.
Mayweather by KO: 5/1 at Bet365
(Note: pinnacle hung 6.4/1 and then dropped to 4/1, but limit is low currently.)
But here's what leads me to believe Floyd by stoppage is the play:
- Floyd Mayweather wins the most convincingly when the odds are close and when people expect he's met his match. He also kicks the shit out of fellow undefeated boxers.
- He is already at 152 lbs and does not need to dehydrate himself to make weight. His conditioning is superior in every way.
- Alvarez weighed in 5.5 lbs over the limit seven days out from the fight. He will be noticeably slower against Mayweather and the excess pounds he packs on will not help him in any way. He is expected to come in over 170 lbs.
- Alvarez turned Pro at 15 in Mexico and 33 of his 42 victories came in Mexico. Throw out his W against an old Shane Mosley (on Floyd's undercard no less) and the only win of note was against Austin Trout. He was gifted a wide UD when the bout was fairly close. The kid is being built up and has never fought a true proven champion.
- Alvarez was gassed halfway through his last fight. He took rounds off. As soon as he tires against Mayweather he is going to get hurt badly and cut. Alvarez is also somewhat flat-footed.
- Mayweather has the best trainer in boxing in his corner in his father. His father, while a defensive wizard, is more offensive minded than he's given credit for, look no further than his pushing Mickey Bey to attempt a stoppage despite being up on the cards in his last bout.
- Floyd Mayweather destroys Mexican boxers. He hurt his hand against Guerrero, but he owns Mexicans, period.
- Mayweather is savvy enough to know that he can't fight a cautious fight - he must dominate and let his hands go. Alvarez is De la Hoya/Golden Boy's superstar of the future, and Floyd's only split decision win of his career came against former Golden Boy himself, De la Hoya. He absolutely wants to close the show in emphatic fashion and take this out of the judges hands.
As for those of you betting the moneyline, don't waste your money on Alvarez. The only fighter who can truly give Floyd trouble is one that fights and moves like himself. A guy that can for a period of 12 rounds move, get off first by beating him to the punch, control the middle of the ring, work off the ropes if he needs to ... essentially, someone built like himself with impeccable defense. He's absolutely not going to taste defeat to the likes of some big muscular, stationary, flat-footed 23 year old. This is the easiest fight he has had in years, do not believe the hype.
That's all I'll go into. Study the tapes, the answer is right in front of you.
Mayweather by KO: 5/1 at Bet365
(Note: pinnacle hung 6.4/1 and then dropped to 4/1, but limit is low currently.)
unreal ... it doesnt really matter where you throw this money away anyways...floyd hasnt had a legit tko/ko since he mangled that cokehead ginger, hatton...
