UFC 164: Henderson Vs Pettis 2 (August 31, 2013)

[Noleafclover]

What Thor said before that fight and let me say this loud and clear. I said before the fight that all the money was on Machida and now they dropped th line like somehow people were taking Davis. I said look for a shady decision here and that is what exactly happen. NOt one soul had Davis winning that fight and i saw only one guy on this site back Davis. One guy.

Ya ya, I had Machida winning too, but not so decisively that he shoulda been a -600 fav or whatever he peaked at. Looks like it was -530. And closed around -330, still not as low as the opener of -270.

But there may be some truth in your conspiracy theory in this way: Sal D'Amatto, Chris Watts, and Richard Winter are likely to be American judges - I don't know and can't be assed to find out. If so, and that was released ahead of time, it may have lead some of the big money to go on Davis.

[MD]

Ya ya, I had Machida winning too, but not so decisively that he shoulda been a -600 fav or whatever he peaked at. Looks like it was -530. And closed around -330, still not as low as the opener of -270.

But there may be some truth in your conspiracy theory in this way: Sal D'Amatto, Chris Watts, and Richard Winter are likely to be American judges - I don't know and can't be assed to find out. If so, and that was released ahead of time, it may have lead some of the big money to go on Davis.

You can't determine the true odds of a fight by watching how it played out. Not saying Machida was the right side, though. Too many variables for me to say one way or the other.

[rocky16]

Adding .5 unit Varner. .5 unit Mir. 3 units Pettis. Those are my plays playas.

1 more unit on Pettis. Now I'm done, phagets.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Adding .5 unit Varner. .5 unit Mir. 3 units Pettis. Those are my plays playas.

I give you a modicum of credit for posting your plays along with unit size. There are a couple of communist parasites who don't post plays with % of Bank Roll or unit size. Actually just one name comes to mind. He just lurk's around & wait's for a free tip & contribute's nothing to the board. I also give you prop's for not posting "medium large" or other such nonsense.

[MD]

I give you a modicum of credit for posting your plays along with unit size. There are a couple of communist parasites who don't post plays with % of Bank Roll or unit size. Actually just one name comes to mind. He just lurk's around & wait's for a free tip & contribute's nothing to the board. I also give you prop's for not posting "medium large" or other such nonsense.

Agreed. The only correct bet sizes are "all in" and "30% bankroll" (also known as "the thin value bet").

[rocky16]

I give you a modicum of credit for posting your plays along with unit size. There are a couple of communist parasites who don't post plays with % of Bank Roll or unit size. Actually just one name comes to mind. He just lurk's around & wait's for a free tip & contribute's nothing to the board. I also give you prop's for not posting "medium large" or other such nonsense.

Will you finally pinch my pekker now?

[Noleafclover]

You can't determine the true odds of a fight period. But the bolded claim is not materially different from a claim about something being the right side. I'm sure you have some difference without a distinction to play devil's advocate about....

[MD]

You can't determine the true odds of a fight period. But the bolded claim is not materially different from a claim about something being the right side. I'm sure you have some difference without a distinction to play devil's advocate about....

Do I really have to say "you can't determine your opinion on the true odds of a fight" rather than "you can't determine the true odds of a fight"? I thought it was pretty obvious on a handicapping forum that this is a matter of opinion. If I say "Bendo probably gets the decision", I'm not claiming that as a fact.

Anyway, not playing devil's advocate, what I'm saying is that people are far too willing to let the actual outcome of a fight decide where the right side lays.

[MD]

If you disagree, we can settle this with a prop bet: who will be more obese on fight night, Ben Rothwell or Brandon Vera?

Seriously, Brandon Vera looks like he's trying to imitate Mark Hunt to get some sort of mental edge over Rothwell.

[Noleafclover]

Haven't seen weigh-ins, but I'd almost be in on Vera sight unseen on that.

Fair enough, determine is definitely some strong language here though. I disagree that the outcome shouldn't impact your assessment, but it sounds like you're not even contending that - just saying people frequently adjust opinions too easily based on the outcome. To that I say... probably?

But if you're reasonable, its a useful tool. Ex. - capped deRandamie over Kedzie @ -600, think the outcome bore that out, even though Kedzie got a round. GDR was never in danger or controlled except when the ref made an error, and Kedzie's gameplan was the one which gave her the best shot of winning, it just wasn't enough. Similarly say Davis and Machida came out with expected gameplans, but nowhere near as decisive or inevitable-seeming of a victory.

[MD]

Haven't seen weigh-ins, but I'd almost be in on Vera sight unseen on that.

Fair enough, determine is definitely some strong language here though. I disagree that the outcome shouldn't impact your assessment, but it sounds like you're not even contending that - just saying people frequently adjust opinions too easily based on the outcome. To that I say... probably?

But if you're reasonable, its a useful tool. Ex. - capped deRandamie over Kedzie @ -600, think the outcome bore that out, even though Kedzie got a round. GDR was never in danger or controlled except when the ref made an error, and Kedzie's gameplan was the one which gave her the best shot of winning, it just wasn't enough. Similarly say Davis and Machida came out with expected gameplans, but nowhere near as decisive or inevitable-seeming of a victory.

Vera looked the worst I've ever seen him. I thought it was just because he's a heavyweight now, but after watching his earlier heavyweight fights, it looks even worse. The guy needs to rely on his movement and speed to beat Rothwell. Hell, he probably just needs to make it out of round one. Being overweight is the worst thing he could do here.

I'm saying that, yeah, but it's not just that. I think that people contradict themselves frequently between their assessments of "value", and their use of results to judge the right side. I've discussed this in detail on the forum before so I won't bother going into it, since it'll probably sound like I'm arguing with you (which I'm not, we're mostly in agreement here). I think that determining who the right side was in the Davis/Machida fight is incredibly difficult. Obviously most any Davis backer will think that Davis was the right side, while a lot of Machida backers will probably say that they were on the correct side. I think that even the most dedicated of Davis backers didn't think that he'd be so aggressive on the feet, however, and that's what won him the fight, for the most part. Pretty much everyone here expected him to turtle up as soon as he got a whiff of a punch. What percentage of the time does he do that? What percentage of the time does Machida bumrush in R1, leave his feet in a bad position, and get taken down (which cost him the fight; I was literally screaming for him to stop after he had Davis on the floor, as he seemed to want to let Davis up and then bumrush him again, which is an awful gameplan)? There is enough uncertainty in those two questions alone for me to be unable to come up with a clear answer.

[Vaughany]

Cedenblad is a big dude!

[Noleafclover]

Vera looked the worst I've ever seen him. I thought it was just because he's a heavyweight now, but after watching his earlier heavyweight fights, it looks even worse. The guy needs to rely on his movement and speed to beat Rothwell. Hell, he probably just needs to make it out of round one. Being overweight is the worst thing he could do here.

Eeexxxcellent

[The iron sheik]

Agreed. The only correct bet sizes are "all in" and "30% bankroll" (also known as "the thin value bet").

There's also the rarely seen 11-15% "cautious parlay bet", reserved for some -600 favorites lumped in together

[MD]

There's also the rarely seen 11-15% "cautious parlay bet", reserved for some -600 favorites lumped in together

That's so rare that I didn't even think to mention it. Generally if you're going as low as 30% bankroll, you only have a 1-2% edge at most. The majority of bettors wouldn't be able to calculate their edge well enough to bet on anything less than that, but a guy like Ron_Paul is a different breed.

[The iron sheik]

That's so rare that I didn't even think to mention it. Generally if you're going as low as 30% bankroll, you only have a 1-2% edge at most. The majority of bettors wouldn't be able to calculate their edge well enough to bet on anything less than that, but a guy like Ron_Paul is a different breed.

You're absolutely right.

Infact, I've grown skeptical it's a man. I think it's a machine.

[Vaughany]

A bot!

[gabe]

I'm not playing Vera/Rothwell but I'll note that I was talking to a training partner of his and when I mentioned I was thinking about betting on Vera, he talked me out of it.

[Noleafclover]

Nikita Krylov has gone on a tear on the European regional circuit and has made enough noise to earn himself a call from Joe Silva and the UFC

His opponents are f*cking terrible.

[Vaughany]

I'm not playing Vera/Rothwell but I'll note that I was talking to a training partner of his and when I mentioned I was thinking about betting on Vera, he talked me out of it.

Is this the same guy that gave you the scoop on Payan/Stephens?!

[Beelzebubzy]

I'm not playing Vera/Rothwell but I'll note that I was talking to a training partner of his and when I mentioned I was thinking about betting on Vera, he talked me out of it.

What's your scoop on mir? You said you had one web the fight was announced

[Thor4140]

Ya ya, I had Machida winning too, but not so decisively that he shoulda been a -600 fav or whatever he peaked at. Looks like it was -530. And closed around -330, still not as low as the opener of -270.

But there may be some truth in your conspiracy theory in this way: Sal D'Amatto, Chris Watts, and Richard Winter are likely to be American judges - I don't know and can't be assed to find out. If so, and that was released ahead of time, it may have lead some of the big money to go on Davis.

No money was on Davis u clown. If there was money on Davis you wouldn't have saw every MMA site in the country's posters all up in arms about the decision. That line move was strictly to get more money on Machida so they could pull a fast on on the bettors. One after another i saw people liking Machida especially when they dropped that line and they were right because it was the right side. They just got screwed. This doesn't happen every fight. It is targeted one's just like they do in every other sport. If Bendo some how all of the sudden becomes a two to one favorite Pettis will get fuked tonight unless he can pull a TJ Grant and get a knockout before it gets in the hands of these crooked fuk judges. TJ Grant was gonna get fuked against Gray Maynard but he got the knockout and thankfully saved the majority of the bettors. This is nothing about conspiracy theories and everything to do with common sense which most gamblers lack terribly. Their egos can't stand when another guy points out something their mind just can't handle.

[Thor4140]

Like i said earlier Vera is done. He looks terrible like he hasn't even trained. Now can this can make him quit is another story. I think he can. Vera fluke against Shogun where it looked like he wanted to quit ten different times was just that a fluke. He is a shot fighter.

[BIGDAY]

I think Wrastlers rule tonight.

Bendo
Mendes
Varner

GL tonight fellas.

[rocky16]

I think Wrastlers rule tonight.

Bendo
Mendes
Varner

GL tonight fellas.

The pony tailed phaget getting starched.

[BIGDAY]

Guida butt Fukked that stupid fuk Petis.

[plekz]

Guida butt Fukked that stupid fuk Petis.

No he didn't he wrestled defensively for three rounds and didn't attempt any kind of finish, Guida is a shoot type wrestler btw, Benson is a clinch type two VERY different styles, in the past Pettis has been able to defend clinch wrestling in his sleep pmuch.

Varner is also on very thin ice considering he's in there against the strongest and most muscular LW in the division and his sure route to victory would be to use his wrestling.

Mendes is the only one with clear routes to victory as he is better then Guida in every facet.

[BIGDAY]

Ya, but Benson is Smooth...

[Rubber Guard]

I have flip flopped so much on the main event that I will just stay away. Weeks ago I liked Bendo. Now I sort of like Pettis. Who knows. that is why the line is so close. My plays are Barnett (-155), Varner (-130), Rothwell (Evens).

[wagerjunkie]

I'm on Pettis because he actually goes for finishes instead of point fighting. And Pettis is better standing, plus Bendo doesn't really have the explosiveness that say Guida has, people expect Bendo to just be able to get Pettis down at will, he did for like one round in the first fight then Pettis said no thanks.

WTF. that's a joke right?!?!

[plekz]

Ya, but Benson is Smooth...

Doesn't change the fact that as much as you people like to claim Benson has evolved (i'm hard pressed to see any except his cardio) Pettis has evolved aswell.

Look at Pettis movement now compared to in WEC, his movement is so much better, and the way he moves latteraly has made him even better at cutting angles (this makes him a nightmare to shoot for td's on aswell) His footwork has also opened up his stance switching (this is what allowed him to headkick Lauzon and also what made him land the liver kick on Cerrone that had him wanting to shit out his bowels)

WTF. that's a joke right?!?!

Guida is faster then Benson, and his shot from the outside is also alot faster this is why he was able to get td's on Pettis, Benson don't use his wrestling anywhere even NEAR similar to how Guida does it.

Guida is a FAR better mma-wrestler then Benson is, Guida is top 5 all time on takedowns in the UFC.

[BIGDAY]

A lot of people on Pettis. Might buy out and go big on Pettis...

you guys are convincing.

Dont fuk me.

[wagerjunkie]

A lot of people on Pettis. Might buy out and go big on Pettis...

you guys are convincing.

Dont fuk me.

don't do it BigDay! Bendo is going to outwrestling him! he's not going to stand and trade kicks. hes not going to point fight like everyone is saying. to predictable and Henderson knows it.

under 3.5 rounds and Bendo by sub.

[plekz]

don't do it BigDay! Bendo is going to outwrestling him! he's not going to stand and trade kicks. hes not going to point fight like everyone is saying. to predictable and Henderson knows it.

under 3.5 rounds and Bendo by sub.

How? he tried that approach in the first fight didn't work out at all for him, and even then Pettis was giving him fits standing, show me concrete examples of how Benson's wrestling has evolved since then.

Even if he get's Pettis down it's alot more likely Pettis uses sweeps or get's his hips out and scrambles back to his feet, he wont just lay there in guard when there is a belt on the line. And not when he's alot better on the feet.

BIGDAY:

The only thing that worries me slightly is where Pettis weight will be @ tonight, considering he was cutting down to get Aldo, if he's managed to bulk himself up to where he needs to be then i have him winning tonight.

Pettis is probably the best guy in the ufc at creating space and cutting angles.

Point fighting is Bensons most likely route to victory and what he's used for every fight he hasn't had a considerable edge in (the Diaz fight) He also hasn't been able to commit to a 'wrestling' oriented gameplan in ANY of his titlefights.

[Rubber Guard]

Guida is a FAR better mma-wrestler then Benson is, Guida is top 5 all time on takedowns in the UFC.