just locked these in: post your plays thread

[Vaughany]

whines like a bitch tho which brings him down to a 5 in my book.

[MD]

whines like a bitch tho which brings him down to a 5 in my book.

I definitely wouldn't say he whines. Fighter pay is a pretty big deal brah.

[Vaughany]

I definitely wouldn't say he whines. Fighter pay is a pretty big deal brah.

It is indeed, but I'm not just referring to that. He's always moaning about something on twitter or in interviews.

And regardless, the fact he back-tracked so hard and started licking UFC's ass after whining about the fighter pay makes him an even bigger bitch, so actually he's probably a 3 out of 10 now!

[Grabaka]

Its no alpha to go kill poor fellaz in Afghanistan....ill bring him down to 2 now

[Vaughany]

Not looking good for him!

[The iron sheik]

I definitely wouldn't say he whines. Fighter pay is a pretty big deal brah.

Besides, he makes the point that fighting isn't his only source of income. If anything, it's pretty alpha to put yourself in a shitty light with your boss to better the conditions of your fellow fighters.

It's kind of like with Fitch, the guy never let anyone believe he is poor or that the UFC didn't pay him enough. Sometimes it feels people are fans of the promoter, not the sport.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

i like Kennedy also. wrestling is good enuf to neutralize a Gracie

He lost to Mayhem Miller twice. He is losing vs Gracie. Look for a significant portion of the fight to be up against the fence. Whether by points or submission Gracie's hand will be raised in the end.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Besides, he makes the point that fighting isn't his only source of income. If anything, it's pretty alpha to put yourself in a shitty light with your boss to better the conditions of your fellow fighters.

It's kind of like with Fitch, the guy never let anyone believe he is poor or that the UFC didn't pay him enough. Sometimes it feels people are fans of the promoter, not the sport.

I agree. I have a tremendous amount of respect for any fighter or 9 to 5 worker who speaks out in order to benefit his fellow workers. I can't remember who said it but I like the phrase "We all stand together or we all hang separate!"

[MD]

He lost to Mayhem Miller twice. He is losing vs Gracie. Look for a significant portion of the fight to be up against the fence. Whether by points or submission Gracie's hand will be raised in the end.

No he did not. Also, nice logic bro, good to see your analysis is as good as your bankroll management.

[Vaughany]

Besides, he makes the point that fighting isn't his only source of income. If anything, it's pretty alpha to put yourself in a shitty light with your boss to better the conditions of your fellow fighters.

It's kind of like with Fitch, the guy never let anyone believe he is poor or that the UFC didn't pay him enough. Sometimes it feels people are fans of the promoter, not the sport.

yeah initially it was, but then he backtracked like a bitch!

[Crassus]

Besides, he makes the point that fighting isn't his only source of income. If anything, it's pretty alpha to put yourself in a shitty light with your boss to better the conditions of your fellow fighters.

It's kind of like with Fitch, the guy never let anyone believe he is poor or that the UFC didn't pay him enough. Sometimes it feels people are fans of the promoter, not the sport.

Yeah but in a way he was disingenuous/didn't accept his own responsibilities. For one, he failed to account for money from sponsorship which itself isn't very large but if it were say, $10,000 a fight, after taxes that would be like $6,000 and that's close to 30% more income than he was reporting. Say he fights twice a year suddenly Tim Kennedy could be making 62k a year after expenses, not too bad at all.

He also had some crazy expenses, like iirc correctly he paid 10% to a manager, a gym and a nutritionist each. Most high quality gyms have a nutritionist on staff, at 10% of his income it would seem to be in his interest to find another gym then. Not to mention he's not talking about his fair amount of free time which many fighters have, if he made the regional circuit there are lots of gyms in the midwest I can confirm would pay him like 800-2000 and cover his hotel/food bills for him to do a weekend seminar in the gym. Yeah he'd be gone a lot of weekends but he could easily do it 1 or 2 weekends a month and add a decent amount of income.

Should fighter pay be higher? Sure. But fighters should also be smarter about costs in my opinion. There are a ton of variables I'm not accounting for, that's true but overall I'd say there were options he failed to mention.

[Thor4140]

He lost to Mayhem Miller twice. He is losing vs Gracie. Look for a significant portion of the fight to be up against the fence. Whether by points or submission Gracie's hand will be raised in the end.

I won't be betting it either way. Just my opinion. I like Kennedy's gas tank. I think he is a sloppy fighter but tough as nails.

[Thor4140]

Yeah but in a way he was disingenuous/didn't accept his own responsibilities. For one, he failed to account for money from sponsorship which itself isn't very large but if it were say, $10,000 a fight, after taxes that would be like $6,000 and that's close to 30% more income than he was reporting. Say he fights twice a year suddenly Tim Kennedy could be making 62k a year after expenses, not too bad at all.

He also had some crazy expenses, like iirc correctly he paid 10% to a manager, a gym and a nutritionist each. Most high quality gyms have a nutritionist on staff, at 10% of his income it would seem to be in his interest to find another gym then. Not to mention he's not talking about his fair amount of free time which many fighters have, if he made the regional circuit there are lots of gyms in the midwest I can confirm would pay him like 800-2000 and cover his hotel/food bills for him to do a weekend seminar in the gym. Yeah he'd be gone a lot of weekends but he could easily do it 1 or 2 weekends a month and add a decent amount of income.

Should fighter pay be higher? Sure. But fighters should also be smarter about costs in my opinion. There are a ton of variables I'm not accounting for, that's true but overall I'd say there were options he failed to mention.

Dude 62 grand a year to fight someone hoping u don't die in the ring isn't worth anything. This is a brutal sport and these guys get paid shit unless they are top tier. I guess they should have figured this out before they went into this career but seriously these guys could get seriously hurt for this kind of money. Some might even say no amount of money is worth taking these risk.

[Crassus]

Dude 62 grand a year to fight someone hoping u don't die in the ring isn't worth anything. This is a brutal sport and these guys get paid shit unless they are top tier. I guess they should have figured this out before they went into this career but seriously these guys could get seriously hurt for this kind of money. Some might even say no amount of money is worth taking these risk.

Truckers in Iraq where 68 people have died in 2.5 years (not a large sample size either) where starving iraqis regularly attack trucks, where I remember a dude saying he killed a teenager with one of the wrenches in his truck because the teenager was gonna kill him for his food or some craziness, their salaries start at 70k. SEVENTY THOUSAND. Granted tax-free but GTFO out with that.

EDIT: Also realized I was wrong on 62k, it's 52k. Kennedy said he came out with about $20,000 after taxes so it'd be 52k. I thought he'd said it was 25k.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I think Ron Paul has Tim Kennedy mistaken for Todd Carney... Someone mayhem miller has beaten twice, LOL.

[Vaughany]

lol easy mistake to make, looks very similar!

[goodfellas433]

went fairly big on Munoz at -115

I really like:
Pierce/Barboza/Not Edgar round 1
Pierce/Barboza/Bacynski

Have some longer parlays in which I switched gracie/kennedy....know thats throwing money away but that fight has scrambled my brain.

Also like Parke straight, played Siver for value...though I think Swanson wants this win big time, I think this will be a phenomenal fight.

I have Gonzaga in several of my parlays, hoping he will take this to the ground rather than trade and eventually gas..

Took Bacynski under 2.5 and won't go distance, though my read on how this fight goes is different than most of the other forum members I think. I see a one sided Bacynski win here.

[DSSCA]

3 fight parlay:
.8 units to win .45 units.
Barboza, Edgar and Pierce

Swanson straight up @ -225
2.25 units to win 1 unit

3 fight parlay:
3 units to win 2.5 units.
Edgar, Swanson and Tyron Spong

Boetsch/Munoz o2 1/2 @ -165
1.65 units to win 1 unit

Oliveira/Barboza fight won't go the distance @ -230
2.3 units to win 1 unit.

And just for fun...
15 fight parlay:
.2 units to win 9.1 units
Edgar, Pierce, Johnson, Carmouche, Masvidal, Mitrione, Machida, Aldo, Maia, Magalhaes, McGregor, Henderson (Benson), Teixeira, Benavidez and Jones.

[DSSCA]

Winner winner. Good night for me. Hope everyone profited. On to the next one.

[Vaughany]

Nice one

[DSSCA]

Thanks V, how did you end up doing for the event?

[Vaughany]

Thanks V, how did you end up doing for the event?

Did ok, just over $600 thanks to Swanson and Edgar mainly

[DSSCA]

Did ok, just over $600 thanks to Swanson and Edgar mainly

Swanson and Edgar were def my favorite two plays. Sounds like a profitable night pal, good work.

[DSSCA]

3 Fight Parlay:
3 units to win 14units

Demetrious Johnson -450
Chiesa/Masvidal Fight won't go 3 rd distance -130
Guillard ITD +165

2 Fight Parlay:
2 units to win 1.3 units

Demetrious Johnson -450
Jorge Masvidal -260 (Not happy about getting that line, I think it opened at -220?)

Probably will add some straight plays closer to fight day. Just felt like having some fun

[MD]

Masvidal opened -140.

[PunisherIND]

Masvidal opened -140.

lol odessa special

[DSSCA]

Masvidal opened -140.

Are you F'ING kidding?? Makes my line suck sack even more... Also, in what world does Masvidal only win 58% of the time??

[Dwil125]

What did you catch Masvidal at? I'm playing him and fading carmouche.

[DSSCA]

What did you catch Masvidal at? I'm playing him and fading carmouche.

I played him in the parlay @ -260. But got him @ -250 for another parlay. Not much better compared to that heaven sent opener!!

[Noleafclover]

for similar payouts -
2-teamer: not carmouche rd 1 -300 + not johnson by split decision -705 (-190)
johnson to win in 4th round +2100

masvidal/chiesa not to hit cards is tempting, but masvidal's last 8 fights have gone there.

[Das Jax]

If anyone's looking to plump up a parlay, I recommend playing "Not Masvidal via submission" at -1095. He has one submission in 24 wins and his opponent, Chiesa is a jiu jitsu specialist who damn sure isn't going to get tapped by the likes of Masvidal. A "Not Guillard by submission" play amounts to essentially the same rational, but at -3870, represents far less value.

Also, if anyone is following the Tour de France, Froomis essentially has it locked up and you can still get him at -1500. He could obviously still die in a horrible crash 10 ft from the finish line, so I wouldn't bet the house on that, but it's definitely worth throwing in a parlay or two.

[DSSCA]

If anyone's looking to plump up a parlay, I recommend playing "Not Masvidal via submission" at -1095. He has one submission in 24 wins and his opponent, Chiesa is a jiu jitsu specialist who damn sure isn't going to get tapped by the likes of Masvidal. A "Not Guillard by submission" play amounts to essentially the same rational, but at -3870, represents far less value.

Also, if anyone is following the Tour de France, Froomis essentially has it locked up and you can still get him at -1500. He could obviously still die in a horrible crash 10 ft from the finish line, so I wouldn't bet the house on that, but it's definitely worth throwing in a parlay or two.

I think Masvidal is going to be the better wrestler and if knocks Chiesa down or hurts him with GNP, he could submit a weary Chiesa. Unlikely, but very possible. Just something to think about before assuming it is a lock. Not that you did, just sayin.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

3 fight parlay:
.8 units to win .45 units.
Barboza, Edgar and Pierce

Swanson straight up @ -225
2.25 units to win 1 unit

3 fight parlay:
3 units to win 2.5 units.
Edgar, Swanson and Tyron Spong

Boetsch/Munoz o2 1/2 @ -165
1.65 units to win 1 unit

Oliveira/Barboza fight won't go the distance @ -230
2.3 units to win 1 unit.

And just for fun...
15 fight parlay:
.2 units to win 9.1 units
Edgar, Pierce, Johnson, Carmouche, Masvidal, Mitrione, Machida, Aldo, Maia, Magalhaes, McGregor, Henderson (Benson), Teixeira, Benavidez and Jones.

I think you might be on to something. I can't disagree with any of those plays that are still live. My crystal ball says that you will be 9.1 units richer in a couple months.

[Das Jax]

I think Masvidal is going to be the better wrestler and if knocks Chiesa down or hurts him with GNP, he could submit a weary Chiesa. Unlikely, but very possible. Just something to think about before assuming it is a lock. Not that you did, just sayin.

I don't know man, Masvidal is no wrestler and you can't tell me his game plan is going to involve taking the fight to the ground against a guy who submitted his last six opponents. Unless he's retarded, Masvidal's game plan will most definitely be to keep the fight standing since, by doing so, he'd be matching up the strongest aspect of his game with the weakest part of Chiesa's game. Your hypothetical is certainly possible... I just don't think it's very probable. The whole name of the gambling game is to identify soft spots in the lines and I think the smart play here is fairly apparent.

Anyway, just my two cents. Take it or leave it as you will.

[DSSCA]

I don't know man, Masvidal is no wrestler and you can't tell me his game plan is going to involve taking the fight to the ground against a guy who submitted his last six opponents. Unless he's retarded, Masvidal's game plan will most definitely be to keep the fight standing since, by doing so, he'd be matching up the strongest aspect of his game with the weakest part of Chiesa's game. Your hypothetical is certainly possible... I just don't think it's very probable. The whole name of the gambling game is to identify soft spots in the lines and I think the smart play here is fairly apparent.

Anyway, just my two cents. Take it or leave it as you will.

I always appreciate a response. You're right, why would Masvidal take down an opponent whose strength is on the ground? He wouldn't... However if able to gain top position against a hurt opponent and jump on a finish, rather than to allow a stand up... He would, I believe, make the game time decision to try to finish with either GNP or submit a rocked Chiesa. At some point in the fight, whether Masvidal initiates it or not, Masvidal will end up on top. He is physically stronger and a better wrestler. What he does with it, will be of circumstance. My thoughts.