just locked these in: post your plays thread

[rocky16]

Good to know, I have seen them haang ridiculous opening lines that other books only posted days later, it was kind of a red flag for me.

I'd say if you deposit your money its safe there.

[Sacrelicious]

Again, good to know, I will put in a small deposit and try to hit an early line there and see what happens if I try withdraw it. Much appreciated.

[rocky16]

Again, good to know, I will put in a small deposit and try to hit an early line there and see what happens if I try withdraw it. Much appreciated.

No problem pal.

[goodfellas433]

100 on Golovkin by decision...thought the odds are worthwhile. Looking to add a few more plays on this fight.

[gabe]

If Weidman wins, it will be by Decision.

You heard it here.

If anyone is finishing the fight, it's gonna be Silva. I cap Silva at -130 so not touching.

[Beelzebubzy]

If Weidman wins, it will be by Decision.

You heard it here.

If anyone is finishing the fight, it's gonna be Silva. I cap Silva at -130 so not touching.

so how big of a play do you have on weidman

[Sacrelicious]

so how big of a play do you have on weidman

A large flier, I would reckon.

[Crassus]

100 on Golovkin by decision...thought the odds are worthwhile. Looking to add a few more plays on this fight.

Check out Golovkin by unanimous decision,I got a quarter unit on it at +1000.

[goodfellas433]

I did that as well, but now it is just insurance. After doing all the research I can muster I have maxed golovkin by tko and itd. If Macklin wins my bankroll is screwed, so I hope I made the right choice.

[MD]

I did that as well, but now it is just insurance. After doing all the research I can muster I have maxed golovkin by tko and itd. If Macklin wins my bankroll is screwed, so I hope I made the right choice.

You made the wrong choice. Why even bother risking a high percentage of your bankroll on juiced lines? Bankroll management or broke, bro.

[goodfellas433]

I need to get bankroll management tattoo'd on my fn forehead. But if he beats Macklin itd and I win I will likely continue the behavior which I know is so stupid. Just being honest.

[MD]

I need to get bankroll management tattoo'd on my fn forehead. But if he beats Macklin itd and I win I will likely continue the behavior which I know is so stupid. Just being honest.

What's the point? There's always going to be good spots. If you're not smart about how much you're risking, you're reducing your edge. There's no reason to take such a big risk, it's no different from a guy who puts his rent money on roulette. You can make money with far less risk just by playing lines which you have an edge on. If you're set in your ways and you're sure that the (huge) risk of losing your entire bankroll if you continue this behaviour is something you've accepted, then fair enough. I hope you don't bust. I feel obligated to point out that it's not a smart idea and that there are easier ways to make money in gambling, though.

I remember one time, a member of this board lost his only two bets of the night very early, and said something to the effect of "I'm not going to chase my losses like an idiot, so I'm done for the night guys", to which I actually felt a bit of happiness because this guy is a legit degen, and I replied to him and praised him for his decision making. Later on in the night, he put a big bet down on Koscheck to beat Robbie (90% sure that was the exact bet he made, could be wrong though). The look on my face.

[goodfellas433]

I can respect that, thanks for trying to talk some sense into me. I had two plays on decision here, but the more I read/watched the more I felt that this has tko written all over it. This is a pivotal fight in whether you actually believe the ggg hype or not...
Initially I really did believe this would see the cards...but I changed my mind. Which I hate because I have now bet against myself so to speak.

[MD]

It's not about whether you believe it'll hit the cards or not, it's just percentages. Hard to find value on GGG to win inside the distance when you need to be right more than 80% of the time just to break even. Even if you think he wins a unanimous decision 10% of the time, there's value in the UD prop at +1000. Bet big where you think there's more value, not where you think you're most likely to cash.

[goodfellas433]

Admittedly, that is where I need work. That's why I was interested in seeing what other's plays were in here as many of you bet the perceived value/odds/probability where I have always been hit/didn't hit.

[goodfellas433]

I'm sure you bitches hit opening lines and I'm late to the party....but anyone care to share?

I personally haven't grabbed a thing...waiting to see if I hit the reds and nationals tonight.

[Vaughany]

So far have edgar at -280, swanson -195. Then have anderson -230 in a parlay with mcregor, and also fight starts rnd 2 at -195 in a parlay as well. A parlay of Seth polish pistola, Pierce, and barboza tht works out at +120 approx.

[Vaughany]

Im hoping gracie gets action later in week and maybe get kennedy nearer to -110

[Thor4140]

Im hoping gracie gets action later in week and maybe get kennedy nearer to -110

i think that fight and the Munoz fight will most likely go to a decision and then u are in the hands of the judges. Kennedy fight reminds me of the last Davis fight against Vinny but Kennedy will take more risk than Davis which could be trouble. Still like Kennedy tho. He did trash the UFC pay scale the other day tho lol.

[ArchieUD]

So far I got:
5Dimes: Frankie Edgar -320, Not Swanson by dec - 225, Silva/Weidman starts rd 2 -215, Silva/Weidman starts rd 3 +100, Not Munoz ITD -410, Oliveira/Barboza o1,5 -185.
Ladbrokes: Swanson by t/ko +333
Unibet: Gracie by dec +550, Boetsch t/ko +300
Betsson: Kennedy/Gracie o2,5 +100

[MD]

So far I got:
5Dimes: Frankie Edgar -320, Not Swanson by dec - 225, Silva/Weidman starts rd 2 -215, Silva/Weidman starts rd 3 +100, Not Munoz ITD -410, Oliveira/Barboza o1,5 -185.
Ladbrokes: Swanson by t/ko +333
Unibet: Gracie by dec +550, Boetsch t/ko +300
Betsson: Kennedy/Gracie o2,5 +100

Not a fan of most of these. I like the u1.5 in the Barboza fight, and I really don't like Not Swanson Decision. Siver is a very hard man to finish. I do like Kennedy/Gracie o2.5 though. I thought it must have been a mistake when it opened on 5D at +125.

[ArchieUD]

Too bad, I was hoping we would be on a lot of the same bets. I actually think it's closer to a coin flip if this fight ends before the time or not than the odds implies, and even if it does I would not count out FW-Sivers chances at getting the nod. I like my spot as it covers both at a currently better price than playing them individually. I might be biased as a fan, but Cub's power and timing is in my eyes equally impressive as Sivers toughness.

Why do you like the Oliveira vs Barboza u1.5? Styles make fights and so on, but none of them are overly aggressive in the first round?
Would appreciate your thoughts

[MD]

Too bad, I was hoping we would be on a lot of the same bets. I actually think it's closer to a coin flip if this fight ends before the time or not than the odds implies, and even if it does I would not count out FW-Sivers chances at getting the nod. I like my spot as it covers both at a currently better price than playing them individually. I might be biased as a fan, but Cub's power and timing is in my eyes equally impressive as Sivers toughness.

Why do you like the Oliveira vs Barboza u1.5? Styles make fights and so on, but none of them are overly aggressive in the first round?
Would appreciate your thoughts

I think Barboza has improved significantly in terms of his all-round MMA game, in that he looks far more comfortable in the cage than he used to. There's no reason that a guy like Oliveira should make it out of the first round unless Barboza is lazy, and even then, surviving an extra 150 seconds is unlikely. I think the u1.5 should be around -125, I won't be surprised if it goes under or if it goes over, but the value is with the under in my opinion.

[goodfellas433]

I think Barboza has improved significantly in terms of his all-round MMA game, in that he looks far more comfortable in the cage than he used to. There's no reason that a guy like Oliveira should make it out of the first round unless Barboza is lazy, and even then, surviving an extra 150 seconds is unlikely. I think the u1.5 should be around -125, I won't be surprised if it goes under or if it goes over, but the value is with the under in my opinion.

Would it be fair to say that barboza itd is a solid play here...and up to what odds would you like it?

[MD]

Would it be fair to say that barboza itd is a solid play here...and up to what odds would you like it?

Depends on what Barboza plans on doing. He could show up and point-fight his way to a decision. His power is overstated a bit. If he wants the finish and goes after it aggressively, it shouldn't be too difficult for him though. If I were Kalikas, I'd open the line at -230.

Don't take my word for it though, seriously, I'm just some internet guy with a bird for an avatar. Watch some tape and decide for yourself, never bet if you don't have an edge.

[rocky16]

Adding .5 units on Gracie +120, Boetsch +105,

[MD]

Adding .5 units on Gracie +120, Boetsch +105,

You've been on the same side as me for most of the recent cards, sad to see you take Gracie. With you on Boetsch though.

[goodfellas433]

Lol. You are a character.

I am fortunate to have a job where I can study tape for hours, but sometimes when my eyes glaze over it becomes easier to compare my thoughts with what you goons think.

[rocky16]

You've been on the same side as me for most of the recent cards, sad to see you take Gracie. With you on Boetsch though.

I hope this doesn't bit me in the ass but all along I've been on Kennedy side but I keep thinking this may turn into a shitty kickboxing match and I have a feeling we'll see some big improvements from Hoger here, plus the reach advantage plays in his favor. Love to see this fight hit the mat though. Kennedy is damn solid on the mat but Gracie is a focking stallion. Good luck pal.

[MD]

I think Kennedy can hold down Roger if he wants to, to be honest. Preferably after he tires Roger out. Would love to see him dirty box for a while and keep Roger against the fence until he's tired. He should really never lose this fight if he game-plans it properly.

[Vaughany]

yep, I think heavy leg kicks and dirty boxing will be the Jackson gameplan

[gabe]

so how big of a play do you have on weidman

Not betting against Silva just 'cos I see value in Weidman's line, fool. I don't just bet on lines, I bet on the fighters. I'm not gonna go laying money down on every line I see value in. I think Weidman has a good shot at winning but I personally wouldn't lay money down against Silva.

[Thor4140]

I think Kennedy can hold down Roger if he wants to, to be honest. Preferably after he tires Roger out. Would love to see him dirty box for a while and keep Roger against the fence until he's tired. He should really never lose this fight if he game-plans it properly.

i can't imagine Roger having any gas left if this hits round three. I get winded just watching the pace of Kennedy.

[rocky16]

I think Kennedy can hold down Roger if he wants to, to be honest. Preferably after he tires Roger out. Would love to see him dirty box for a while and keep Roger against the fence until he's tired. He should really never lose this fight if he game-plans it properly.

Dirty boxing against cage is the perfect gameplan for Kennedy. Lets see if he implements.

[MD]

Dirty boxing against cage is the perfect gameplan for Kennedy. Lets see if he implements.

How alpha do you think Kennedy is, 1-10? I think he's a solid 9. Acts like a man, fights like a man.