ufc on fx 8: belfort vs rockhold (5.18.13)

[MD]

Market says, nope.

Pounded Natal against Craig, learned my lesson there. He's not good enough to be as arrogant as he is, against a late replacement = recipe for disaster.

He barely even has a puncher's chance, though. His best shot is Natal f-cking up and getting choked out.

I 'cap Natal at -750 and I think that's generous to Zeferino.

[mirinquads]

Cholish +265?

is dat sum



Pound action I see there? Slick grappler and creative striker against a huge weightcutter thats getting old. Cholish is only fighting part time, and its his 'hobby' though thats some serious red flags.

Anyone know anything about Michel Prazeres? He beat Anderson Silva so he must be bretty brertty gud. Seems like a good line for Thiago though

[Beelzebubzy]

Can he survive on te ground vs natal?

Natal SUb night for me

[Beelzebubzy]

Cholish +265?

is dat sum



Pound action I see there? Slick grappler and creative striker against a huge weightcutter thats getting old. Cholish is only fighting part time, and its his 'hobby' though thats some serious red flags.

Anyone know anything about Michel Prazeres? He beat Anderson Silva so he must be bretty brertty gud. Seems like a good line for Thiago though

Yeah V

[mirinquads]

+170 cholish now, that went quick

[MD]

Can he survive on te ground vs natal?

Natal SUb night for me

Natal KO of the night.

[NunyaBidness]

+170 cholish now, that went quick

When Nunya fires two barrels, the books run.

[MD]

You like Cholish, Nun? I was going to wait for the KO prop. Only way he really wins I think. Good chance Tibau bullies him.

[NunyaBidness]

I capped Gleison around -160

[Grabaka]

I maxed Cholish too @ +190.
Goddamit i woke up and all hell was loose.

[Grabaka]

Maxed Gashimov and Cariaso too.

[NunyaBidness]

I think that Gashimov line will improve, I would wait on it if you like it.

[gabe]

Kiss your $ on Cholish goodbye. This will be the only time I'm not fading Tibau.

[gabe]

I think that Gashimov line will improve, I would wait on it if you like it.

Yeah, I see him getting to +200

[MD]

Kiss your $ on Cholish goodbye. This will be the only time I'm not fading Tibau.

I feel sort of similar. I don't see how Cholish keeps Tibau off of him for long. Castillo's chin is a lot weaker than Tibau's; in fact, Castillo is worse in almost every conceivable area than Tibau is. Tibau should be able to get him down and take the decision. I had Tibau beating RDA 30-28 and RDA is, like Tibau to Castillo, better than Cholish in every area. More importantly, I expect Cholish to fight a similar style to how RDA fought Tibau, with less clinching.

[Vaughany]

Partly because of the Peralta debacle I'm very reluctant to back any part-time fighters from now on. And add to that the fact he is fighting one of the biggest and most experienced guys in the division and to top it off in his own country. I mean, Cholish is having to use 6 days holiday leave from work just so he can get to the fight!

Tibau is also only 29, he might not even be at his peak yet...even if it does seem that he isnt exactly evolving greatly and the ridiculous weight-cuts may be catching up with him. But Im not ready to think that he is done quite yet.

Think Tibau grinds out a decision. Cap him -200 to -250 range

[Vaughany]

Maxed Gashimov and Cariaso too.

yeah interested in both of these. I need to watch more footage of Gashimov. How good is his grappling exactly? Like are we talking beastly like his fellow angry Communist friend from Jackson's who tossed Vinc Pichel on his head?

And Cariaso fight should be a pick-em me thinks. Again need to watch some more Jussier fights and see how line moves. Also reluctant to bet against BRazilians when they are fighting in own back-yard....only time I've done it was with Camozzi against Cane but that was a bit of an exception as Cane had already lost before in Brazil and is just a stiff!

[Sacrelicious]

Natal -350.

Belfort ITD +184 and a bit more at +195.

[Dwil125]

I'm on Maldonado -235. Cariaso isn't very good, I might play him +3.5. The judges always give him rounds he shouldn't get.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

3 weeks between events seems like forever now

[Educ8d Degener8]

Like Maldonado at the moment. In simpleton terms I see it as a bigger sloppier version of an njokuani v bowling type matchup. Though that njokuani play gave me a stiffy, and a Maldonado play has me at around half a chub... If only Maldonado had leg kicks...

[Sacrelicious]

Maldonado Dec, maybe...

[Vaughany]

Like Maldonado at the moment. In simpleton terms I see it as a bigger sloppier version of an njokuani v bowling type matchup. Though that njokuani play gave me a stiffy, and a Maldonado play has me at around half a chub... If only Maldonado had leg kicks...

haha

[Dwil125]

Like Maldonado at the moment. In simpleton terms I see it as a bigger sloppier version of an njokuani v bowling type matchup. Though that njokuani play gave me a stiffy, and a Maldonado play has me at around half a chub... If only Maldonado had leg kicks...

I think leg kicks would be bad since it would be easier for hollet to take him down off of them if he throws them consistently. I hope he just sticks to those nasty body punches

[MD]

You done your homework bros? Hollett never goes for takedowns. He's a better overall striker than Maldonado and has pretty good head-movement. He's unrelentingly passive though, and has no finishing instincts. Incredibly low fight IQ, too. I wouldn't be comfortable paying the juice on either of these guys, which makes me lean towards the dog. Depends on where the line ends up I suppose.

Both are terrible, C-level fighters, but Hollett has some semblance of technique I suppose. The one thing Maldonado has going for him is that he's a slow starter while Hollett fades relatively quickly. It's probably going the distance. I'm sort of expecting Maldonado to win the striking exchanges just by pushing forward and swinging hooks. No reason to think it won't work against such a passive guy.

[MD]

Lentz moving to -120 surprises me. He should be a clear favourite here.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Partly because of the Peralta debacle I'm very reluctant to back any part-time fighters from now on. And add to that the fact he is fighting one of the biggest and most experienced guys in the division and to top it off in his own country. I mean, Cholish is having to use 6 days holiday leave from work just so he can get to the fight!

Tibau is also only 29, he might not even be at his peak yet...even if it does seem that he isnt exactly evolving greatly and the ridiculous weight-cuts may be catching up with him. But Im not ready to think that he is done quite yet.

Think Tibau grinds out a decision. Cap him -200 to -250 range

WannaBet's 2nd rule of MMA betting: friends don't let friends bet on part-time fighters.

That law was indoctrinated for Jon Cholish as my justification for why I was betting on Castillo. Don't know if I'll be betting such a passive cinderblock in Tibau at reasonably steep juice but I can't take a stab at Cholish here personally.

[Sacrelicious]

Lentz moving to -120 surprises me. He should be a clear favourite here.

Missed -120, but Lentz -130????

[mirinquads]

Tibau -190

Might just hit that. He's just so goddamn lazy, always fights to his opponents level.

[Beelzebubzy]

Tibau by split
he is the huge Garcia but instead of air strikes he has fake takedowns

[MD]

Tibau by split
he is the huge Garcia but instead of air strikes he has fake takedowns

Judges don't like Tibau. Did you watch the Nurmagomedov fight? The worst scorecards in MMA history. Tibau wins 30-27, all three judges score it 30-27 for Nurmagomedov. The RDA fight, too. I had it Tibau 30-28, he clearly won at least two rounds, yet some nut job still gave it to RDA.

[Beelzebubzy]

The nurma decision was bad real bad good point

[gabe]

Nurma did enough to win that fight. Tibau didn't. I recall Nurma being the aggressor throughout the fight and stealing rounds. Both looked shitty but wasn't a robbery by any means.

[CaDDyy]

belfort +110 2u
Cariaso +110 1u
Dias +130 1u
godbless

[Rubber Guard]

Would figure Lentz would be a BigDay special this week. A p p p pounder. Good price on Lentz, I just hate going against upcoming Brazilians in Brazil. But Lentz has impressed me and just dominated Nunes.