MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

I wouldn't be just as unhappy. I would be thrilled. lol-- busted my parlays

I don't really care whether my plays cash or not. I just want that EV. I'd rather lose three +EV plays in a row than win three plays and think to myself after the fight that they were all -EV.

Also, Johnson was a premium play, is what Punisher means.

[NunyaBidness]

Also, Johnson was a premium play, is what Punisher means.

Shows what a joke that service is when their own guys bet against it.

Yeah, pay us money and we'll tell you to bet these picks, but we're gonna bet the other side.

But no matter, we're booking both bets.

Nothing to see here. Ignore the man behind the curtain.

[Vaughany]

It's 250 for openers on straight lines, 100 for props. Goes up to 500+ closer to fight time.



Same, barely. Thought he clearly won R1, clearly lost R2, scraped out R3. I would have been just as unhappy if he had won, though. Wrong side is wrong side.

oh not for me!

[NunyaBidness]

oh not for me!

Guess you gotta be a line mover to get the good limits.

[PunisherIND]

Guess you gotta be a line mover to get the good limits.

[Vaughany]

Guess you gotta be a line mover to get the good limits.

haha

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Finished down on my Twitter bets, and didn't do much better for the night myself. Pretty much broke even and only profited for the day because of boxing. I think I got screwed on that 'Reem bet, it should seriously have been stopped when he dropped Travis multiple times and Travis wasn't responding to his punches. I was definitely wrong about that Hall bet, though. Incredibly awful, probably the worst bet I've made all year.

Your welcome for the Kovalev play. Here's 10 points total. 1 more to go.

[MD]

Your welcome for the Kovalev play. Here's 10 points total. 1 more to go.

I didn't tail anyone on that play brah. And thanks for the points.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I didn't tail anyone on that play brah. And thanks for the points.

You already thanked me last night. In another thread 6:19 PM. Did you partake in the libations last night?

[MD]

You already thanked me last night. In another thread. Did you already forget?

??? No I didn't. This is what I said, in response to you posting the news that Kovalev got the KO, and were celebrating your victory:

$$$. Nicely done, good sir. Biggest boxing cash of the month for me.

I don't do much tailing bro. Not my game.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Well if you say so. I guess I believe you. Serious question. Have you already done your breakdown of the rematch between Condit vs Kampmann? If Condit mixes his level changes up I can see him not only winning but also itd. I wonder how much of an effect the Big Rig KO will have on Kampmann?

[MD]

Well if you say so. I guess I believe you. Serious question. Have you already done your breakdown of the rematch between Condit vs Kampmann? If Condit mixes his level changes up I can see him not only winning but also itd. I wonder how much of an effect the Big Rig KO will have on Kampmann?

I'm not done with that fight yet. Condit should win, obviously, but it's difficult to back him at these odds. I don't know enough about Kampmann's cardio to be comfortable here. I think there's actually a pretty good chance that Kampmann locks up a guillotine.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I'm not done with that fight yet. Condit should win, obviously, but it's difficult to back him at these odds. I don't know enough about Kampmann's cardio to be comfortable here. I think there's actually a pretty good chance that Kampmann locks up a guillotine.

2 factors to consider. 1 Recent KO at the hands of Big Rig. 2 The shake up at Xtreme Couture. Does he still train there? Are there any welterweight pro's left?

[Tommy Blingshyne]

I don't really care whether my plays cash or not. I just want that EV. I'd rather lose three +EV plays in a row than win three plays and think to myself after the fight that they were all -EV.

Also, Johnson was a premium play, is what Punisher means.

i hear what youre saying...when im playing poker, as long as i got my money in w/ the best hand im happy w/ my play regardless of the outcome but honestly, when its all said and done, id truly rather just win the $$$ no matter which way it comes...ideally, i always want to make the correct move AND win but in the end, id be perfectly fine w/ being a luckbox and winning then being good and losing...over time the skill will outweigh the luck but aint nobody got time fo dat!

[SlipperyKyhol]

i hear what youre saying...when im playing poker, as long as i got my money in w/ the best hand im happy w/ my play regardless of the outcome but honestly, when its all said and done, id truly rather just win the $$$ no matter which way it comes...ideally, i always want to make the correct move AND win but in the end, id be perfectly fine w/ being a luckbox and winning then being good and losing...over time the skill will outweigh the luck but aint nobody got time fo dat!

When I play poker I go all-in with any two cards.

[On2TheNext1]

It's easier to calculate/quantify your EV in poker. MD chalks his losses up to variance, but there's no real way to quantify his EV when it's directly correlated to his ability to cap. He's working under the assumption his plays are +EV when in reality he could just very well be a shitty capper.

--

Condit hasn't tapped in 7yrs, I guess he's due.

[MD]

It's easier to calculate/quantify your EV in poker. MD chalks his losses up to variance, but there's no real way to quantify his EV when it's directly correlated to his ability to cap. He's working under the assumption his plays are +EV when in reality he could just very well be a shitty capper.

Not an assumption, I think my plays are +EV because I have had steady bankroll growth for a significant period of time. Always the chance that I'm a 1 in 1000 superdonk luckboxing my way ahead of EV, and if so, may the good times keep rolling.

Condit hasn't tapped in 7yrs, I guess he's due.

Nick Diaz hadn't been wrestlef-cked in seven years before the GSP fight. Even wikicapping could have shown you how many submission threats Condit's fought since then.

[On2TheNext1]

Not an assumption, I think my plays are +EV because I have had steady bankroll growth for a significant period of time. Always the chance that I'm a 1 in 1000 superdonk luckboxing my way ahead of EV, and if so, may the good times keep rolling.

Like I said.

Nick Diaz hadn't been wrestlef-cked in seven years before the GSP fight. Even wikicapping could have shown you how many submission threats Condit's fought since then.

Successfully defended... or "fought". Are you comparing Kampmann's submission game to GSP's TD/top control game? They're analogous to you?

[MD]

Like I said.



Successfully defended... or "fought". Are you comparing Kampmann's submission game to GSP's TD/top control game? They're analogous to you?

You said I was assuming. I looked at a large quantity of relevant data and came to a conclusion. Difference.

I am not comparing Kampmann's submission game to GSP's takedown game. I'm not even saying that it's likely that Kampmann will submit Condit. I am pointing out the clear and obvious flaw in your argument. Ron Sparks hasn't been submitted in his entire seven-year career, either.

[On2TheNext1]

You said I was assuming. I looked at a large quantity of relevant data and came to a conclusion. Difference.

Then you know. Fair enough. What's a large quantity? What's your basis of comparison to put yourself in the top thousandth percentile of sports bettors out of curiosity, or just a figure of speech?

I am not comparing Kampmann's submission game to GSP's takedown game. I'm not even saying that it's likely that Kampmann will submit Condit. I am pointing out the clear and obvious flaw in your argument. Ron Sparks hasn't been submitted in his entire seven-year career, either.

Then why'd you bring up Diaz/GSP or Kampmann by guillotine?

I understand the point you're attempting to make, but you're doing a shitty job of it with apples to oranges comparisons. Again, how is Ron Sparks career/abilities analogous to Carlos Condit's?

[Vaughany]

2 factors to consider. 1 Recent KO at the hands of Big Rig. 2 The shake up at Xtreme Couture. Does he still train there? Are there any welterweight pro's left?

He went to Denmark to start his camp in July. Since then been working at Drysdales and with Sefo at "Syndicate MMA", sparring with Brad Tavares and Evan Dunham, Chris Spang

[sorinnn]

Should Vera be the favorite against Ben Rothwell?
I know Ben lost to Gonzaga but from what I've read he was sick that day

[Vaughany]

Both suck ballz, no idea really! Rothwell will struggle to take Vera down tho and you have to give Vera the edge in the striking department, as well as cardio so I guess Vera is rightful favourite.

[MD]

Then you know. Fair enough. What's a large quantity? What's your basis of comparison to put yourself in the top thousandth percentile of sports bettors out of curiosity, or just a figure of speech?



Then why'd you bring up Diaz/GSP or Kampmann by guillotine?

I understand the point you're attempting to make, but you're doing a shitty job of it with apples to oranges comparisons. Again, how is Ron Sparks career/abilities analogous to Carlos Condit's?

A large quantity is what I say is a large quantity. Obviously I'm not sharing any of my personal stats on a public forum.

If you understood the point I'm attempting to make, then you wouldn't think I was doing a shitty job of it. I've stated pretty clearly that my examples are not analogous to Condit, I am saying that using a time period of not being submitted without any context is nonsense. You used the fact that Condit has not been submitted in seven years to mock my suggestion that Kampmann has a realistic shot of submitting him. Ron Sparks hasn't been submitted in seven years. Diaz hadn't been wrestlefucked in seven years. It means nothing.

[Vaughany]

Kampmann can sub anybody imo if he gets hold of their neck. Condit isnt the type who is going to dive in on a double and leave his neck out there, maybe during a scramble on the ground tho

[Vaughany]

appreciate your thoughts, as usual. this is admittedly a bit of wikicapping, but i have trouble backing someone (melancon) who lost a decision to a 145lb fighter that i've never heard of (adam schindler). have you seen any footage of this fight?

Right to be concerned, what I will offer though is that Melancon had 4 weeks to prepare and had to change his camp half way through that period which messed his preparation up a bit (he joined Paradigm at this point where he is still training today). He then had a horrible cut and came in over weight (he spent over 4 hrs in the sauna and only managed to lose a quarter of a lb! so I guess that's why he sticks to 170 now which is optimal weight!). I'm recalling this from an interview I once saw, its probably on youtube somewhere.

Just to highlight how bad his weight-cuts were to 155...

It seems like your last few cuts at 155 were very difficult. I’ve seen you at weigh-ins and have also heard rumors of you spitting up blood and all that. What was the thought process behind all that sacrifice?
I was told that it would give me the best chance to make it to the UFC so I was willing to do it. It took me over a year and a half to strip down the muscle from being 200lbs and to learn how to cut weight. My first pro fight was a catchweight at 160 and I cut from 180 the last 24hrs. It was brutal but I did it and decided I could do the rest. After that I started cutting to 155, but I could never keep my body weight down. I tried, but no matter how strictly I dieted, I could never really stay under 180 except right before a fight.
I’ve never really walked around under 180-185. I just wouldn’t tell people that. They would ask me and I would tell them (I was) 175, but that was actually a few days out from the fight. But yeah, there were some brutal moments during my weight cuts. I have gone through things that I probably shouldn’t talk about. People will think I’m an idiot. The worst was kidney failure, and heart palpitations. I seriously contemplated going to the ER rather than weigh-ins this last time. I’m not the only one that has ever gone through this. But after this last time, it scared me enough to know that I can never do it again. I won’t go in to details, but let’s just say it went way past the bounds of sanity. It was very dangerous and definitely not worth it.

[Vaughany]

1st round of that fight was pretty entertaining btw, some terrible technique on show but loads of knockdowns and back and forht!

[PunisherIND]

I'm not done with that fight yet. Condit should win, obviously, but it's difficult to back him at these odds. I don't know enough about Kampmann's cardio to be comfortable here. I think there's actually a pretty good chance that Kampmann locks up a guillotine.

i think there's some value in the sub prop

$20.00

$389.00

Pending

8/28/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1035 Kampmann wins by submission +1945* vs Any other result

[MD]

i think there's some value in the sub prop

$20.00

$389.00

Pending

8/28/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1035 Kampmann wins by submission +1945* vs Any other result

Agreed. I played it too. 'Capped it at around +700

[Vaughany]

I capped it at +1995 so not quite enough value for me, hopefully will go back up by fight time!

[Beelzebubzy]

I capped it at +1995 so not quite enough value for me, hopefully will go back up by fight time!

Not abedi by sub -5520
lock it up boys

#winnerz

[Vaughany]

I like it Bubz.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

When I play poker I go all-in with any two cards.

then id love to play you heads up for the rest of my life...haaaa

[On2TheNext1]

A large quantity is what I say is a large quantity. Obviously I'm not sharing any of my personal stats on a public forum.

Ha! On so many levels. Sharing your sample size is hardly giving anything away.

If you understood the point I'm attempting to make, then you wouldn't think I was doing a shitty job of it. I've stated pretty clearly that my examples are not analogous to Condit, I am saying that using a time period of not being submitted without any context is nonsense. You used the fact that Condit has not been submitted in seven years to mock my suggestion that Kampmann has a realistic shot of submitting him. Ron Sparks hasn't been submitted in seven years. Diaz hadn't been wrestlefucked in seven years. It means nothing.

I tutored calc/trig in college and despite wrong answers, I was usually able to recognize the errors and mistakes as well as how/why they were made by my students. Recognizing the point you're attempting to make despite the flawed logic to support it doesn't mean you're doing a good job of making said point. Do you see why?

Seven years of higher quality opponents, on par, if not better, than Kampmann. You're being purposefully simplistic for the sake of your argument now.

[MD]

Ha! On so many levels. Sharing your sample size is hardly giving anything away.



I tutored calc/trig in college and despite wrong answers, I was usually able to recognize the errors and mistakes as well as how/why they were made by my students. Recognizing the point you're attempting to make despite the flawed logic to support it doesn't mean you're doing a good job of making said point. Do you see why?

Seven years of higher quality opponents, on par, if not better, than Kampmann. You're being purposefully simplistic for the sake of your argument now.

I'm pretty sure you realize how bad your logic is, and you're just attempting to dodge me at this point. You haven't said anything to argue with my point, all you keep saying is that I'm doing a bad job of arguing my point.

You used the fact that Condit has not been tapped in seven years to mock my suggestion that Kampmann has a good shot at a sub. Ron Sparks has not been tapped in seven years. Nick Diaz had not been grinded by a wrestler in seven years before GSP. Yet you continue to act as if the fact that he hasn't been submitted in seven years has any bearing on whether or not Kampmann has a realistic shot of submitting him. Are you going to stand by the position that the length of time gone without being submitted is indicative of good submission defence? Either you'd say the same about Ron Sparks, or you're admitting that using this logic to argue in this scenario was wrong. Pick one.