UFC on FUEL TV 5: Struve vs. Miocic

[Vaughany]

Manuwa...what a specimen...look forward to seeing Wannabet's hog analysis on this man

[Vaughany]

haha Gareth E Davies little bit about Manuwa!!!

[PunisherIND]

Manuwa...what a specimen...look forward to seeing Wannabet's hog analysis on this man

lmao. damn minuwa made kingsbu look ordinary. and he didnt look amused with the sherlock and fanny pack act.

[Vaughany]

Just maxed Nelson at -225 on WH, should be able to get Damarques at +275 or better by fight time

That's if it isnt cancelled

[PunisherIND]

Just maxed Nelson at -225 on WH, should be able to get Damarques at +275 or better by fight time

That's if it isnt cancelled

if it was going to be cancelled, i would imagine they would have said something right then and there. no? seemed like the fight was going on.

[CaDDyy]

Miocic wins inside distance -150
wiman -105
kingsbu +150

[Vaughany]

if it was going to be cancelled, i would imagine they would have said something right then and there. no? seemed like the fight was going on.

yeah guess so. Looks like Damarques jus got some action on pinnacle, maybe people will bet him on basis that he'll have weight advantage

[Beelzebubzy]

who does everyone like in the young peralta matchup

[NunyaBidness]

what is your philosophy when it comes to heavy line movement? does it influence you in any way? i.e. would you ever consider buying out some/all of your original bet?

It doesn't influence me in the sense of 'uh-oh somebody knows something i don't' unless the line movement is very very strong (Green/Briggs for example).

But, if I cap a fight at something like A -150, B +175 and the line opens at A -140 and it moves to B +210. I'll bet through and switch my position completely.

[PunisherIND]

It doesn't influence me in the sense of 'uh-oh somebody knows something i don't' unless the line movement is very very strong (Green/Briggs for example).

But, if I cap a fight at something like A -150, B +175 and the line opens at A -140 and it moves to B +210. I'll bet through and switch my position completely.

i see. so if we use the reverse scenario, lets say you cap A -150, B +175, line opens at A -140 and it moves to A -115. assuming you played the -140, and assuming the movement is not based on a change of circumstances (rampage missing weight etc.), you would add more on A at -115? or would you just keep the original position?

[PunisherIND]

who does everyone like in the young peralta matchup

i like young to win a decision.

[NunyaBidness]

i see. so if we use the reverse scenario, lets say you cap A -150, B +175, line opens at A -140 and it moves to A -115. assuming you played the -140, and assuming the movement is not based on a change of circumstances (rampage missing weight etc.), you would add more on A at -115? or would you just keep the original position?

Yes, I would add on up to whatever kelly fraction I'm currently using.

I posted a calculator for optimal staking sizes after line movement in the past, I'll see if I can dig it up.

[NunyaBidness]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/26617-overbets-line-changes-kelly-spreadsheet.html

[PunisherIND]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html

great stuff. thanks man.

[Vaughany]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html

yeah nice one bud. Good timing as well as I've gotta start taking my bankroll management a lot more seriously (just set up a new spreadsheet with kelly formula set-up), got a wee bit complacent and silly in past couple weeks due to soccer betting and not being as careful as I have been in past (blown a lot of profits recently due to getting carried away).

[Dillonious Monk]

Man, Struve gets backed up against the cage so easily...not good against guys with big power.

[NunyaBidness]

Note, that spreadsheet requires solver, so it will only work in excel, not openoffice or whatever. And certain versions of solver gave me troubles too, had to install an older version of excel to get it working properly.

[The HOFF]

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[Beelzebubzy]

Note, that spreadsheet requires solver, so it will only work in excel, not openoffice or whatever. And certain versions of solver gave me troubles too, had to install an older version of excel to get it working properly.

You can add Solver
Go to Excel OPtions
then Add Ins
then select Solver then click GO
Andohter screen will come up, selct them all

Done,

[Beelzebubzy]

I may be wrong I did it once, my first year in grad school, but I did not need a disc back then, so I doubt you need one now

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah, I'm not saying you can't add it in, just this spreadsheet for some reason is incompatible with some versions of solver. You get errors.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Nice pics Hoff

Jimi Manuwa looks serious

I think he smokes Kingsbury in under 1 round

[gabe]

Nice pics Hoff

Jimi Manuwa looks serious

I think he smokes Kingsbury in under 1 round

Yeah, Hoff, nice pics. What kind of camera do you use?

[DirtyX]

Looking to add Straight bets on J. Manuwa, Brad Tavares and Dan Hardy also. GL!

Ticket#:74975463 Sep 29 04:05 PM

INTERNET / -1

Sep 27 01:32 AM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24214] P SASS -110 (M WIMAN vrs P SASS)

$220 / $200

[Mercersux]

Have a feeling that the Gunnar Nelson - Demarques Johnson fight might be off. Off the board on 5dimes. Hopefully they refund my play asap because made a good sized play on Nelson. Oh well...