Mlb 2012

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Nice night Biff Tee

thanks, Redscot!

Originally posted by dodger33

Morales and the rest of the Angel bats are starting to wake up. Angels are notoriously a streaky team. Wouldn't be shocked if when they started hitting ran off 7-8 wins by decent sized margins in a row.

good point, the Angels bats have looked pretty good the last 3 games, and given that they have to listen to a lot of talk about being overpaid/overrated lately, you can see them going on a streak and shutting people up soon. so much talent relative to the results so far.

Originally posted by pacocn

Great night biff, keep it going

thanks, pacocn. let's get back at em tonight. on Mets and O's with you.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 10:09 AM

adding

2* Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8' (-107)

Tuesday 4.18.2012 updated card
3* Tribe ML (-121)
2* Cubs ML (+147)
2* Orioles ML (+122)
2* Tigers/Royals over 9 (-110)
2* Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8' (-107)

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 10:22 AM

weird line movement on DET/KC total at Pinny. maybe there will be some lineup surprises with 2 lefty starters. whatever, hard not to like Tigers lineup against Chen. at first glance, it looks as if Chen has some decent numbers against Detroit (like .246 BA), but then you realize that that includes Inge being 1-23 (the most ABs of any Tiger vs Chen, and he likely won't be in the lineup tonight) and Tigers still have .500 slug % and .846 OPS vs Chen. if you take out Inge's numbers, the rest of the Tigers are .290/.382/.598/.980 vs Chen.

interesting tidbit i saw on twitter: Pirates are first MLB team since 1988 to not score or allow over 5 runs in first 10 games of a season.

svenodds · 04-17-12, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Monday 4.16.2012 final card
2* Rays/Red Sox under 9 (-110) - WINNER
2* Parlay: Nationals ML + Tigers ML (+124) - WINNER
2* Twins/Yankees over 10 (-110) - PUSH
2* Mets ML (+153) - WINNER
2* Padres ML (+111) - WINNER

4-0-1 +9.76u

26-32-2 -13.37u season to date

nice monday

RoadDog · 04-17-12, 11:13 AM

Nice day Biff. Told you it was just a matter of time

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by svenodds

nice monday

thanks, sven!

Originally posted by RoadDog

Nice day Biff. Told you it was just a matter of time

thanks, RD, appreciate that. now gotta back it up today. i see that you're on the Brewers, that's my next lean off the card, pretty tempting to add it. definitely glad to see that you're not backing the good guys and Danks, heh heh. BOL tonight.

RoadDog · 04-17-12, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

definitely glad to see that you're not backing the good guys and Danks, heh heh. BOL tonight.

Haha. You wont see me on Danks too much. He's a supposed "ace" left-hander and lefties hit .270 off him last year (righties hit .275). This year, lefties are hitting .368 off him. Lefties take away his best pitch, his cutter. I'm not a fan of when lefty "studs" cant get lefties out. I'm not a fan of him.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

Haha. You wont see me on Danks too much. He's a supposed "ace" left-hander and lefties hit .270 off him last year (righties hit .275). This year, lefties are hitting .368 off him. Lefties take away his best pitch, his cutter. I'm not a fan of when lefty "studs" cant get lefties out. I'm not a fan of him.

i hear you. this Orioles lineup can rake against lefties, too.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

Haha. You wont see me on Danks too much. He's a supposed "ace" left-hander and lefties hit .270 off him last year (righties hit .275). This year, lefties are hitting .368 off him. Lefties take away his best pitch, his cutter. I'm not a fan of when lefty "studs" cant get lefties out. I'm not a fan of him.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 02:13 PM

upgrading Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8.5 (-107) from 2* to 3*

Tuesday 4.18.2012 updated card
3* Tribe ML (-121)
3* Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8' (-107)
2* Cubs ML (+147)
2* Orioles ML (+122)
2* Tigers/Royals over 9 (-110)

Redscot · 04-17-12, 02:27 PM

Reyburn in Miami Biff Tee.

dodger33 · 04-17-12, 02:30 PM

Anyone got an update on Berkman and Freese for today?

Redscot · 04-17-12, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

Haha. You wont see me on Danks too much. He's a supposed "ace" left-hander and lefties hit .270 off him last year (righties hit .275). This year, lefties are hitting .368 off him. Lefties take away his best pitch, his cutter. I'm not a fan of when lefty "studs" cant get lefties out. I'm not a fan of him.

Ricky Romero falls into this category as well Roadie.

RoadDog · 04-17-12, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Ricky Romero falls into this category as well Roadie.

True, but I'm starting to fall in love with him today. His numbers against Tampa Bay are ridiculous. No one touches him except Zobrist. They hit .163 off him as a team in a large sample. Trying to find an edge to bet this one because I dont want to lay the -147 juice. I'm thinking Blue Jays -.5 First Five Innings at -105.

With the total climbing to 9 (which i dont understand at all), looks like someones giving up some serious runs tonight. I'm willing to bet its Niemann and not Romero at home.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

True, but I'm starting to fall in love with him today. His numbers against Tampa Bay are ridiculous. No one touches him except Zobrist. They hit .163 off him as a team in a large sample. Trying to find an edge to bet this one because I dont want to lay the -147 juice. I'm thinking Blue Jays -.5 First Five Innings at -105.

YUp, there is a pretty big sample size there, only reason I laid off Tampa.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

True, but I'm starting to fall in love with him today. His numbers against Tampa Bay are ridiculous. No one touches him except Zobrist. They hit .163 off him as a team in a large sample. Trying to find an edge to bet this one because I dont want to lay the -147 juice. I'm thinking Blue Jays -.5 First Five Innings at -105.

have you considered Jays -1 (-105 at 5D)? with TB's shitty pen, any game with them can get out of hand.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Reyburn in Miami Biff Tee.

gotcha. i have him as a decent under ump, not huge but a factor. do you have any notable home/road numbers for him?

RoadDog · 04-17-12, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

have you considered Jays -1 (-105 at 5D)? with TB's shitty pen, any game with them can get out of hand.

That's exactly what I'm going to do. I'm gonna think about this for a while, but thats what I've settled on. I'd be sick if i put that first five inning bet in and the score was like 2-2 and i lost.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

gotcha. i have him as a decent under ump, not huge but a factor. do you have any notable home/road numbers for him?

Yeah, he has a healthy strike zone and last year had heavy under results (one year does not an under ump make though) . Nothing amiss regarding home field bias.

HOT WINGS · 04-17-12, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by dodger33

Anyone got an update on Berkman and Freese for today?

There both in case you didn't see yet. Like the Cards alot tonight.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by dodger33

Anyone got an update on Berkman and Freese for today?

Berkman and Freese both in lineup: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

There both in case you didn't see yet. Like the Cards alot tonight.

beat me to it.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 04:09 PM

adding

2* Rays/Blue Jays under 9 (-120)

Tuesday 4.17.2012 updated card
3* Tribe ML (-121)
3* Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8' (-107)
2* Rays/Blue Jays under 9 (-120)
2* Cubs ML (+147)
2* Orioles ML (+122)
2* Tigers/Royals over 9 (-110)

BOL to all tonight.

HOT WINGS · 04-17-12, 04:15 PM

Speaking of movement on total.... Anyone have a good reason why the total dropped from 7 to 6.5 on Stros game? Where does your model have that game Biff?

dodger33 · 04-17-12, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Berkman and Freese both in lineup: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

Gracias!

CappinTerp · 04-17-12, 05:27 PM

Like the Cub bet ......................................gl

Redscot · 04-17-12, 05:31 PM

Your Zona under just got a boost, no Upton. GL tonight Biff Tee, on a number of the plays with ya.

HOT WINGS · 04-17-12, 06:06 PM

GL Biff. Took Stros over couldnt see any good reason not too. Also on Cards, Rangers, Jays, Mets and small plays on FF unders in Mets and Cubs games. Almost played Cubs too and lik the Tribe, Giants & Tigers/over later

BiffTFinancial · 04-18-12, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

Speaking of movement on total.... Anyone have a good reason why the total dropped from 7 to 6.5 on Stros game? Where does your model have that game Biff?

sorry that i did not reply, Hot Wings. got caught up with some work stuff and then unexpectedly went out for the night and never checked back to SBR. sorry to see that the over didn't work out for you, pal.

BiffTFinancial · 04-18-12, 09:22 AM

Tuesday 4.17.2012 final card
3* Tribe ML (-121) - WINNER
3* Pirates/Diamondbacks under 8' (-107) - LOSER
2* Rays/Blue Jays under 9 (-120) - LOSER
2* Cubs ML (+147) - LOSER
2* Orioles ML (+122) - WINNER
2* Tigers/Royals over 9 (-110) - LOSER

2-4 -4.37u

28-36-2 -17.74u season to date.

BiffTFinancial · 04-18-12, 03:04 PM

Wednesday 4.18.2012
3* Cardinals ML (-124)
1* Cardinals FF ML (-130)

YOUNGBUCK · 04-18-12, 03:23 PM

Biff u like the rays?

Jermusom · 04-18-12, 03:26 PM

Value in the under in the reds/cards game as well, right?

BiffTFinancial · 04-18-12, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by YOUNGBUCK

Biff u like the rays?

hey buck. if i went with a side in that game, it would be Rays. Jays struggle against lefties, and Price has good history vs Jays, but Price's first two starts have me a little concerned. lean under/FF under but passing.

like Phils a lot, will be on them.

BiffTFinancial · 04-18-12, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by Jermusom

Value in the under in the reds/cards game as well, right?

no question. i don't like to play side and total in same game, but my model puts that game in the 6.8-6.95 range.