Calmeat's MLB Props 2012

[calmeat]

@crackerjack,
Its really not that hard, no PhD needed. 3 game series chases on ML, ML games that just miss the criteria, Yes there will be a run in the first inning(Prop), and Team to score first(Prop).
If i have
GM2 WSH (-120) 2.33u it means bet to win 2.33 units on game 2 of Washington's series.

I am more than willing to help with anything you have questions about.

[calmeat]

This has been a bad series so I have been trying to minimize losses. Looking at the matchups today I am not
confident on San Fran to win or Score first. Therefore I am personally dropping them and counting them as losses.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 18w-3L-0open 85.71%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 36w-2L-0open 94.74%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 15w-2L-1open 88.24%
Score First Chase - 18w-1L-0open 94.74%

MLB 5/3/12 +59.51u

ML Series Chase +10.48u
GM1 NYY (-133) 1x

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +33.32u
No Plays

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +5.68u
GM3 ARI/WSH (+120) 3.37u
GM1 NYY/KC (-125) 1u

Score First Chase +14.68u
GM1 NYY (-165) 1u

[unclebuzz1]

Cal, I read in the 1st post where you say you're not familiar with how to track units. Let me give you this bit of advice ... add the units won/lost today to the units won/lost before the start of today, which gives you the units won/lost before the start of tomorrow.

Refer to the results for the ML Series Chase for 4/27/12 and 4/28/12 (posts # 54, # 55 and # 57) ...

You've indicated that you went from +7u before the 1st day to +11u after the 2nd day. When you put the +8u in-between the 2 days, it appears as though you won 1u the 1st day (going to +8u) and won 3u the 2nd day (going to +11u). It doesn't give a true representation of how you got from +7u to +11u for the 2-day period.

What really happened was that you lost 2.7u the 1st day and won 6.7u the 2nd day. A more accurate representation is that you went from +7u to +4.3u to +11u for the 2-day period.

This is where major confusion comes in for someone that wants to verify the accuracy of your record. GL

[calmeat]

@unclebuzz1
Ok i see how that could be confusing and difficult for someone else to track. The reason i don't subtract a 1 game loss from the total units is because in theory its still not a loss until the chase is over with no win, but understand what you are saying. If it would make it easier i will start doing that. might be ugly at first so if you see something wrong please let me know so I can get track this a bit better for other people. Thanks again for the suggestions.

[calmeat]

Will update prop lines when they are released.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 18w-3L-0open 85.71%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 36w-2L-0open 94.74%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 15w-3L-1open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 18w-1L-0open 94.74%

MLB 5/4/12 +51.24u (Going to track the units daily instead of series.)

ML Series Chase +9.15u
GM2 NYY (-173) 2.33u
GM1 WSH (-190) 1u
GM1 LAD (-145) 1u
GM1 TEX (-150) 1.5u
GM1 TB (-200) 1.5u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +33.32u
GM1 STL (-155) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +.39u
GM2 NYY/KC (-110) 2.65u
GM1 CIN/PIT (+110) .5u
GM1 ATL/COL (-140) .5u

Score First Chase +13.03u
GM2 NYY (-180) 2.25u
GM1 LAD (-160) 1u
GM1 ARI (-150) 1u
GM1 STL (-170) 1u

[Alki]

Thanks Cal.

[calmeat]

Hey guys,
So with the help of unclebuzz i have corrected some mistakes he found. Again i stated in the begining i wasnt sure how to track units and man i was right. So I have went back to the beginning and corrected all the units and the card for today should have looked like the below. I will do my best to keep this as correct as possible so if anyone else sees a mistake please let me know. I want to keep this as accurate as possible. Thanks again to unclebuzz.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 16w-2L-1open 88.89%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 36w-2L-0open 94.74%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 15w-3L-1open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 18w-1L-1open 94.74%

MLB 5/4/12 +33.39u (Going to track the units daily instead of series.)

ML Series Chase +3.82u
GM2 NYY (-173) 2.33u
GM1 WSH (-190) 1u
GM1 LAD (-145) 1u
GM1 TEX (-150) 1.5u
GM1 TB (-200) 1.5u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +25.73u
GM1 STL (-155) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +.39u
GM2 NYY/KC (-110) 2.65u
GM1 CIN/PIT (+110) .5u
GM1 ATL/COL (-140) .5u

Score First Chase +12.03u
GM2 NYY (-180) 2.25u
GM1 LAD (-160) 1u
GM1 ARI (-150) 1u
GM1 STL (-170) 1u

[calmeat]

Will be out and about on Saturday so not sure if i can post so i will just do it now.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 19w-2L-2open 90.48%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 36w-2L-1open 94.74%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 17w-3L-1open 85%
Score First Chase - 21w-1L-1open 94.74%

MLB 5/5/12 +38.82u

ML Series Chase +4.95u
GM2 LAD (-?) 2.45u
GM2 TEX (-140) 3.75u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +24.18u
GM2 STL (-152) 2.55u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
PHI/WSH (-) .25u
MIA/SD (-) .25u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -.74u
GM2 CIN/PIT (-?) .95u

Score First Chase +15.08u
GM2 LAD (-?) 2.6u

[calmeat]

Will Update Prop lines as soon as they come out.

MLB 5/6/12 +43.29u

ML Series Chase +11.5u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +20.30u
GM3 STL (-160) 6.43u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.15u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -1.70u
GM3 CIN/PIT (-100) 1.91

Score First Chase +17.68u
No Plays

[calmeat]

MLB 5/7/12 +51.12u


ML Series Chase +11.15u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +26.73u
GM1 STL (-112) 1u
GM1 TEX (-131) .5u
GM1 LAD (-150) 1.5u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.15u
LAA/MIN (-130) 1u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -.29u
GM1 LAD/SFG (+120) 1.2u
GM1 ARI/STL (-120) 1.5u
GM1 SD/COL (+125) 1.25u

Score First Chase +17.28u
GM1 CIN (-130) 1u
GM1 LAD (+105) 1.05u

[unclebuzz1]

Cal, the layout is 100x easier to read without the clutter. The units for ...

ML Series Chase looks OK

UnOfficial ML Series Chase looks OK except for typo in post #79 (corrected later)

No score 1st Inning looks OK

Yes score 1st Inning Chase looks off between posts #77 and #78
... can't tell between posts #78 and #79 without odds
... looks off between posts #79 and #80

Score 1st Chase looks off between posts #77 and #78
... looks off between posts #78 and #79


GL

[calmeat]

Cant go back and edit those posts so here is what i have

Post 77 5/4
Yes Score should be -3.54
Score First should be +12.03


Post 78 5/5
Yes Score should be -1.24
GM2 CIN/PIT (-100) .95u


Score First should be +14.68
GM2 LAD (-160) 2.6u


Post 79 5/6
Yes Score should be -.29
Score First should be +17.28

Now with your help i believe it is showing the true units won. I have updated my formulas in my sheet so i should be accurate going forward but please if anything looks fishy let me know. Thanks again for all your help its truly appreciated.

[calmeat]

Will update when Props are released

MLB 5/8/12 +53.92u

ML Series Chase +11.15u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +29.73u
GM2 LAD (-190) 1u (Playing them again eventhough they won)
GM1 PHI (-170) 1u
GM1 WSH (-120) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -5.45u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +1.46u
GM2 LAD/SFG (+135) 2.20u
GM1 TB/NYY (-110) 1u

Score First Chase +17.03u
GM2 CIN (-135) 2.30u
GM1 WSH (-145) 1u

[calmeat]

So for today I am moving some things around.
I have more faith in Washington winning a game more than Philly not blowing a lead today. So taking Philly and adding it to washington.
Also I am taking LAD ML loss and moving that to TB Score First.
If you have any questions let me know and ill answer. Thanks

Will update when Props are released

MLB 5/9/12 +44.29u

ML Series Chase +11.15u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +24.93u
GM2 WSH (-105) 4.9u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -5.45u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -1.27u
GM2 LAD/SFG (+115) 3.83u
GM1 TB/NYY (-125) 2.10u

Score First Chase +14.93u
GM3 CIN (-145) 2.30u
GM2 TB (-135) 2.90u

[Alki]

Liking the WA for PHIL switch. Makes sense and I can definitely see your point even with C Lee going.
GL

[calmeat]

yeah if Lee wasnt on a pitch count tonight i would have stuck with philly. But since the bullpen will likely pitch i cant bet them.

[calmeat]

MLB 5/10/12 +39.40u

ML Series Chase +11.15u
GM1 TOR (-145) 1u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +19.79u
GM3 WSH (-170) 10.5u
GM2 TEX (-129) 1u (Game 1 of Doubleheader)
Gm3 TEX (-150) 2.29u (GM2 of DH only if Game 1 Looses)

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -5.45u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -2.50u
No Plays

Score First Chase +16.42u
No Plays

Short Card today but big play on the NATS. Also im dropping TB score first they have a shot tonight but to me its not worth the risk especially with the nats being such a big play.

[Alki]

Good Logic.
Nats it is.
GL.

[calmeat]

MLB 5/11/12 +46.64u

ML Series Chase +12.15u
GM2 TOR (-140) 1u
GM1 TEX (-155) 1u
GM1 LAD (-170) 1.5u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +29.13u
GM1 STL (-139) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -5.45u
GM1 WSH/CIN (-140) 1u (Series Chase)

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -2.50u
GM1 ARI/SFG (-115) 1u
GM1 COL/LAD (-105) 1.5u

Score First Chase +13.31u
GM2 CLE (-140) .5u
GM2 TOR (-170) 1u
GM1 SEA (-135) .5u
GM1 HOU (-135) 1u
GM1 SFG (-160) .5u

Will Update prop lines when they show up.

[calmeat]

MLB 5/12/12 +50.95u

ML Series Chase +13.25u
GM3 TOR (-130) 2.40u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +27.74u
GM2 STL (-140) 2.39u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -6.85u
GM2 WSH/CIN (-140) 2.40u (Series Chase)

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0u
No Plays

Score First Chase +16.81u
No Plays

Will update props when released

[calmeat]

MLB 5/13/12 +46.64u

ML Series Chase +15.65u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +24.39u
GM3 STL (-145) 5.74u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -10.21u
GM3 WSH/CIN (-135) 5.76u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0u
No Plays

Score First Chase +16.81u
No Plays

Don't think ill be playing NO scores again anytime soon.

[unclebuzz1]

Cal, the number of units to post and the bookkeeping for the number of units posted is correct from the start of 5/10/12 on. It looks like you're on your way. I'll be around a while longer.

I strongly recommend that G1, G2, G3 represent the game number in the 3-game chase rather than the game number between the two teams. We don't need to know which game it is between the 2 teams, it's the game that's played on that day. Double headers can be designated as in post #87.

I'm a bit concerned that you would go as high as 10.5u on GM3 WSH (-170) on 5/10/12. That's 17.85u to win previous losses plus 1. If it were to lose, you'd lose most of your profit for the season. Slow and steady wins the race.

Don't worry about the number of followers at this point. If you produce the numbers that you have recently, word will get around.

BTW, congratulations for winning 7 of 9 G1 games on 5/11/12.

[Coach Potato]

[Alki]

Thanks as always Cal. Let's get the Cards in today.

[calmeat]

Thanks again for all your help unclebuzz. Its been really nice to hear the things i can do to be a better capper and post these correctly. That washington game was a big one yes but i liked the pitcher matchup so went with it. I think this will be my last No score play for a while so far that is the only category in the red with not much promise of getting to the plus soon.

Thanks for the suggestion on naming the games. I will from now on designate the games numbered by how we play them instead of game number between teams. hopefully i will now be able to keep track of the units correctly now but if anyone see's it off please let me know.

It does get a little frustrating since one guy i know just started doing the same thing with the ML chases pretty much the same as i am doing a couple days ago and hes already got more feedback. But its not a big deal and i know just to keep plugging away.

As for the good day thanks hope there are many more!

Again thanks a lot for all your help.

[calmeat]

Well i guess the good day and today even out a bit. I am going to start choosing the plays more carefully for the UnOfficial plays since now that seems to be getting hard to cap. Next series looks good so lets get that and more back this week.

Current record will post plays tomorrow
Overall +30.55u
ML Series Chase +15.65u
UnOfficial ML Series Chase +16.08u
No Score 1st Inning -17.99u (Done with these for a while)
Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0u
Score First Chase +16.81u

So looking at the above I am thinking about upping the ML series chase and score first going smaller on the yes chase and UnOfficial plays and getting rid of No Score (until it starts being profitable)

[Alki]

Cal,
I read your post above about someone else doing the ML chase like you do and that he (she) has more feedback than your thread. My opinion, FWIW, is thank god!!! It is so nice to be able to read through your thread and not get lost in all of the BS posts from people wanting to bash you for a losing day......which we all have. Believe me when I say I am sincerely thankful that this thread has been low volume and no BS. Some of the others are impossible to read through and have forced me to not even open them anymore.
Though you may or may not agree, I truly feel this way.

[calmeat]

Alki,
that makes a lot of sense. glad that you like it. Alright no more of that nonsense from me. Todays card to follow.

[calmeat]

MLB 5/14/12 +30.55u


ML Series Chase +15.65u
GM1 WSH (-155) 2u
GM1 TEX (-185) 2u
GM1 CLE (-130) 1u
GM1 LAD (-152) .5u (Kemp out but still like LAD chances of taking this one.)

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +16.08u
No Plays

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -17.99u
DET/CWS (-?) 0u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0u
GM1 KCR/TEX (-145) .5u

Score First Chase +16.81u
GM1 MIL (-170) 2u
GM1 SEA (-115) 1.5u
GM1 CLE (-160) 1u
GM1 LAD (-100) .5u (smaller play cause Kemp OUT, otherwise 1.5u)


Will update Props when they come out.

So this week we will be playing the series a bit different. We are going to combine the 2 game series into a 4 game chase. It will be a little different though. If we get 1 win in a series we will finish it and probably not play that series again. The hope is that at the most we have one game left going into game 1 of the second 2 game series. Some plays if they creep into the second 2 game series we will be tweaking but i will let you all know what the plan is.

[calmeat]

MLB 5/15/12 +22.90u

ML Series Chase +15.45u
GM2 TEX (-250) 5.70u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +16.08u
No Plays

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -17.99u
SD/WSH (-170) 0u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -.72u
GM2 KCR/TEX (-145) 1.23u

Score First Chase +10.58u
GM2 MIL (-170) 5.40u
GM2 SEA (-120) 3.23u
GM2 CLE (-160) 2.60u


Washington has its 3 best pitchers going next 3 games vs SD (Strasburg) then Gonzalez and Zimmerman vs PIT, all 3 at home. With this said i will be Double dipping that series and playing them again. Starting with that juice though i can't bring myself to post it as an official play.

Edit------ I am adding .5 to the ML chase Overall units. Forgot to add the LAD win last night.

[VonnyB]

Hey, BCI can now post a reply, I have been following your ml chase. I hope I can get out Of the hole that i am in. Thanks for all your post Hun.

[calmeat]

Hey VonnyB nice to see you on here! Hopefully i can help out and we can all make some money.

[I_WILL_WIN]

I went all in with SEA to score 1st. I hope your right..........

[I_WILL_WIN]

Seattle SUCKS at scoring in the 2nd and the Red Sox are HOT in scoring the 1st/2nd. I think we are screwed buddy.

[calmeat]

yeah was really hoping beckett to suck top of 1st. Good thing it was low juice and the king is pitching tomorrow.