Calmeat's MLB Props 2012

[Alki]

Thanks as always Cal.
Appreciate your continued efforts.

[calmeat]

In case i dont have time to post tomorrow here is the card. Also note the STL score first was cancelled today due to the pitcher change. Both 5dimes and Bovada graded it as no action so i am as well.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 29w-1L-0open 96.67%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 5w-1L-0open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 9w-0L-1open 100%

MLB 4/22/12 +37.57u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +31.22u
No Play

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +1.7u
No Plays

Score First Chase +7.5u
GM3 STL (-155) 5.4u - GM2 graded as no Action due to pitcher change.

[ConeyKing]

Cal, I’ve been following your system for a week now. Nice work! Thanks and congratulations.
Please help me understand this play:
4/19 you started the DET-TEX series with DET. (DET Lost)
4/20 No play on the DET-TEX series (Series left OPEN in your record, game rained out)
4/21 No play on the DET-TEX series (series still OPEN in your record, DET 1W-1L in double header)
4/22 No play on the DET-TEX series (series no longer OPEN and no affect to W-L record)

Probably it’s not a big deal. But I would like to know what happened to this series.
(I personally closed the series with a WIN in the 2^nd game satday with Verlander)

ALSO!! How do you pick the matchups? I’ve seen you favor the AWAY team in what appear to be close matchups or advantage for away team in the whole series.

[calmeat]

@ConeyKing
Yeah kind of messed up this game. So what happened is this.
Tex was the actual play. But i looked over pitcher matchups and thought DET would take the first game. So I went against the systems and chose DET to chase. After the first game i realized i undervalued TEX a bit and after much thinking decided to stop on the chase on DET and was going to chase TEX but figured that i would be better off to stop that chase and add the losses onto STL and LAD series. Oh and for the record i forgot to take it off the open series thing so totally my mistake again. I am pretty sure on 4/20 i posted that I was cancelling the DET series and placing it on the STL and LAD chases.

Yesterday i def thought about taking tex first game and then doing det which would have won but that Texas team is scary and since i recovered the losses on the other series decided just to let that TEX/DET series alone. I learned my lesson to stick with the system and the Official plays will always be the system plays so I wont be doing that again.

[calmeat]

Also for picking matchups based mainly on stats and pitcher matchups. One thing i am tracking and probably going to add as a filter is that "No bet on a team where first game of series they are + odds" I will track this a bit and see how that works out.

[ConeyKing]

Thanks Cal!
Here's to a season of winnings!!

[calmeat]

Woohoo winner!! +16.5 units on these series! Lets keep it rolling!

[calmeat]

Today starts the official plays Lets get 'em, I will update with Prop Lines when they come out.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 29w-1L-0open 96.67%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 5w-1L-0open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 10w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/23/12 +39.57u

ML Series Chase
GM1 TX (-110) 1u
GM1 STL (-120) 1u
GM1 ARI (-115) 0.5u
GM1 CWS (-120) 1.5u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +31.22u
GM1 ATL (+115) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +1.7u
GM1 NYY/TX (-115) 1u
GM1 PHI/ARI (-130) 0.5u
GM1 ATL/LAD (-100) 0.5u

Score First Chase +9.5u
GM1 HOU (+105) 0.5u
GM1 STL (-150) 0.5u

[doubledime]

Cal, Good luck this year!

[calmeat]

Cal, Good luck this year!

Thanks DoubleD, same to you!

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 2w-0L-2open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 29w-1L-1open 96.67%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 8w-1L-0open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 11w-0L-1open 100%

MLB 4/24/12 +44.07u

ML Series Chase +2u
GM2 TX (-138) 2.1u
GM2 STL (-145) 2.2u
GM1 CLE (-135) 1u
GM1 TB (-150) 1u
GM1 WSH (-120) 1u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +31.22u
GM2 ATL (-120) 1.87u
Gm1 DET (-190) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +3.2u
GM1 LAA/TB (+105) 0.5u

Score First Chase +10u
GM2 STL (-160) 1.25u

[Alki]

You're like the shoe company - Nike.
Just do it.

[calmeat]

So today I am doing something a little different. i dont feel good about betting
against King Felix so I am splitting the losses on that game and placing half on
Washington and skipping the DET game today and will play them tomorrow .

YTD
ML Series Chase - 6w-0L-1open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 30w-1L-1open 96.77%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 9w-1L-0open 90%
Score First Chase - 11w-0L-1open 100%

MLB 4/25/12 +49.07u

ML Series Chase +6u
GM3 STL (-155) 5.39u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +32.22u
Gm2 DET (-) Skip (will place 1.45u on GM3)
GM2 WSH (-140) 1.45u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +3.7u
No Plays

Score First Chase +10u
GM3 STL (-180) 3.25u

[calmeat]

Got a little worried with the STL games but they hit today. 3-0 for today!! Started with $50 BR and up to $350 now. Hoping to get to +100 units before all-star break. Hope some peeps are tailing. If so let me know.

[calmeat]

Adding plays now for tomorrow. Finishing the chase on Detroit and adding a single game no chase on Cleveland for small and for fun.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 7w-0L-0open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 31w-1L-1open 96.77%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 9w-1L-0open 90%
Score First Chase - 12w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/26/12 +51.07u

ML Series Chase +7u
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +32.72u
Gm3 DET (-200) 1.45u
Gm3 CLE (-142) .5u (Single game no chase)

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
GM1 BOS/CWS (-125) .5u (possible Chase)

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +3.7u
No Plays

Score First Chase +10.5u
No Plays

[abe74]

Got a little worried with the STL games but they hit today. 3-0 for today!! Started with $50 BR and up to $350 now. Hoping to get to +100 units before all-star break. Hope some peeps are tailing. If so let me know.

Started following you yesterday, definitely wish I started from the beginning of the year. GL the rest of the year, will follow your system with you.

[calmeat]

Cool glad your aboard. Just some notes. The system can get juicy so please follow money management. If you are doing it online then its a lot easier since if you start with $50 you can start the chase with the 5% ($2.50). With a local person its a lot tougher. This series i just started but not doing the chase yet until I get the BR up.

Also today is a perfect example of where it can get scary. When games go to Game 3 its a bit nerve wrecking but again with the right money management if that Game 3 looses then it will not destroy your bankroll. For the STL score first my application spit out today was the day STL would score first so I trusted the stats and matchups and luckily things went to plan. Hoping this goes as well as last year and if does then we are in for a good MLB season.

[calmeat]

Also gonna play DET/CLE parlay - not a system play or anything but just throwing this one out there.

[calmeat]

Bad Day Yesterday. Should have just taken the day off after a really good series. Oh well back at it today!
Will update lines when they are released/


YTD
ML Series Chase - 7w-0L-0open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 31w-2L-1open 94%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-3L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 9w-1L-0open 90%
Score First Chase - 12w-0L-0open 100%


MLB 4/27/12 +47.57u

ML Series Chase +7u
GM1 ATL (-190) 1u
GM1 BAL (-130) 1u
GM1 TEX (-140) 1u
GM1 SFG (-100) 1u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +29.82u
GM1 STL (-130) .5U

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -3.45u
DET/NYY (-120) 1u

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +3.7u
GM1 MIA/ARI (+105) .5u
GM1 TB/TEX (-115) 1u
GM1 NYM/COL (-115) .5u
GM1 PIT/ATL (+105) .5u

Score First Chase +10.5u
GM1 HOU (-125) 1u
GM1 KC (-145) .5u

[calmeat]

Back on Track did some extra plays and lost so gotta remember stick with the


system. In laws are coming tomorrow so figured got the plays out now.
The San Fran game is not over but to be safe I am adding it as a loss. If the game ends and San Fran ends up coming back to win then that series would be done and DO NOT play them again.


YTD
ML Series Chase - 8w-0L-3open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 32w-2L-0open 94.12%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 12w-1L-1open 92.31%
Score First Chase - 14w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/28/12 +51.37u

ML Series Chase +8u
GM2 BAL (-145) 2.3u
GM2 TEX (-160) 2.4u
GM2 SFG (-100) 2u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +30.32u
No Plays

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +5.7u
GM1 PIT/ATL (-?) 1.17u

Score First Chase +12u
No Plays

[Alki]

Thanks Cal.

[calmeat]

Nice back on track!

YTD
ML Series Chase - 11w-0L-0open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 32w-2L-0open 94.12%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 13w-1L-0open 92.86%
Score First Chase - 14w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/29/12 +54.87u

ML Series Chase +11u
GM3 - ATL (-162) 1x - 2game chase

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +30.32u
No Plays

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +6.2u
No Plays

Score First Chase +12u
No Plays

[calmeat]

Just to add. There is an optional play today. Since the PIT/ATL game is a 4 game series and ATL is an RPI play you can chase them again. ATL won the first game so really the chase could have started yesterday (glad I didnt). Since PIT won yesterday that means you can do a 2 game chase on ATL.

I am going to edit the card above and placing ATL in as an Official play again. Pit might take game one since its Hudson's first game back but the second game i like Minor pitching for ATL.

[Alki]

Got it. Short card for us today.
Thanks.

[Alki]

Squeaked by a winner. Good idea you had.

[calmeat]

Yeah def glad i played it. Had other ideas yesterday and played them but didnt post them. All gut feeling and a bit of chasing some bad bets i made the day before. But between yesterday and today 10-0 yesterday going 9-0 with all my actual bets. So I ended up making up for the bad bets (philly scoring first with Halladay pitching, etc..) and got some extra. overall this weekend Im up a 100, With no open bets my Bovada BR = 411.85 (started with 50)
5dimes BR = 144.12 (started with 50 2 series ago)
Local BR = 67 (doing things different with local If team looses first game and is a ML chase and pitcher matchup is good i put 15 or 20 on the game, started with 0)

Gonna update stats tonight and tomorrow morning will run the games and with banmanj's help will find the series and bets we want to play. Personally the YES bets have been doing very well so may put a full unit on them instead of the .5u. Score first i will keep at .5 though since that juice is usually high.

Hope everyone had a good weekend and let start the week off right tomorrow!

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 12w-0L-0open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 32w-2L-0open 94.12%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 13w-1L-0open 92.86%
Score First Chase - 14w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/30/12 +55.87u

ML Series Chase +12u
GM1 TEX (-150) 1.5u
GM1 NYM (-115) 1u
GM1 LAD (+115) 1u
GM1 DET (-150) 1/2u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +30.32u
GM1 BOS (-165) 1/2u
GM1 NYY (-170) 1/2u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +6.2u
GM1 TEX/TOR (-110) 1u
GM1 BAL/NYY (-125) 1u
GM1 LAD/COL (-130) 1u

Score First Chase +12u
GM1 TEX (-175) 1.5u
GM1 LAD (-135) 1u

[calmeat]

Ended last night on the positive side. Hoping to get the same result tonight. Hopefully we will only have a couple plays tomorrow.

Since TB is a 4 game series we are picking TB up at GM2.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 13w-0L-2open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 34w-2L-0open 94.44%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 14w-1L-2open 93.33%
Score First Chase - 16w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 5/1/12 +61.87u

ML Series Chase +13.5u
GM2 NYM (-125) 2.15u
GM2 LAD (+105) 1.87u
GM1 WSH (-145) 1u
GM1 ATL (-125) 1u
GM1 SFG (-165) 1u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +31.32u
GM1 TB (-210) 1u
GM1 STL (-190) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +7.2u
GM2 TEX/TOR (-120) 1u
GM2 BAL/NYY (-140) 1u
GM1 ARI/WSH (+125) 1u

Score First Chase +14.5u
GM1 TB (-120) 1u
GM1 NYM (-160) 1u
GM1 SFG (-100) 1u

[unclebuzz1]

Lookin' good!

[calmeat]

Well first bad night last night, Hope that is a rare occasion

I will update Prop lines once they are released.
NYM 3rd game is not in our favor. Therefore What i will be doing is splitting those units and playing 4 other games (STL, DET, LAD, LAA)
Also dropping TEX Yes score and counting as loss

YTD
ML Series Chase - 14w-0L-4open 100%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 36w-2L-0open 94.74%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-4L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 15w-2L-1open 88.24%
Score First Chase - 17w-0L-2open 100%

MLB 5/2/12 +64.77u

ML Series Chase +14.5u
GM2 NYM (-) Suspended
GM2 WSH (-120) 1u
GM2 ATL (-105) 1u
GM2 SFG (-128) 1u
GM2 DET (-280) 1.21u
GM2 STL (-170) 1.21u
GM3 LAA (-260) 1.21u
GM3 LAD (-160) 1.21u

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +33.32u
NP

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -4.65u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +6.1u
GM2 ARI/WSH (-) 1.80u

Score First Chase +15.5u
GM3 LAD (-) 2.60u (replacing NYM SF)
GM2 SFG (-) 2u

[unclebuzz1]

Cal, you lost me on this last one.

1) why are WSH, ATL, SFG all for 1u when they all lost yesterday?

2) if NYM GM3 was not in our favor, why not just play HOU instead?

3) why are DET and STL listed as GM2 but LAA and LAD listed as GM3?

.
.

[calmeat]

@unclebuzz,
messed up on those WSH ATL and SFG Sorry about that. I did it last night and had the kid home sick today, on conference calls for work and trying to rush and post the games and missed updating those to the correct unit size they should be
GM2 WSH (-120) 2.33u
GM2 ATL (-105) 2.23u
GM2 SFG (-128) 2.49u

NYM GM3 yes not in our favor but if i were to play houston and NYM won i would want to shoot myself. So instead i decided it would be best to spit them all up with all favorable pitcher matchups (hasnt really worked out well so far)

So DET and STL are listed as game 2 because its game 2 in the series and game 3 for LAA and LAD unless i misread them as well.

Again sorry about that. Hopefully it all works out tonight so far not looking too good. Just remember for unit size its always what you have lost so far on the series + the original amount you wanted to win.

Ill try to be a little more careful when posting.

[unclebuzz1]

Fair enough. I mistakenly thought that GM1, GM2, GM3 represented the game number in your 3-game chase rather than the game number between the 2 teams. Thanks!

[calmeat]

Ah ok gotcha, Yeah since we are only following a team for the series i thought it would be best to put in the series game number plus when a double header happens it gets a little more difficult to differentiate what game is what. Sorry for the confusion and Thanks for the heads up.

[crackerjack]

I wish I had a PhD so I could understand this thread...