Calmeat's MLB Props 2012

[calmeat]

Hello all,
Just opening the thread to get it ready for the season. Official plays will not start for about 2 weeks after start of season. A filter was added last year that in order to place a wager the pitcher must have at least 5 starts. We will be playing the following items in this thread.

ML series chase - Will be chasing a 3 games series 1 win then series is finished. 4 game series if we win game 1 then we may treat the series as a 3 game chase again. We will not chase 4 games.

UnOfficial ML series chase - These are series that don't make the cut but i feel really good about.

No Score 1st inning - This will normally not be a chase unless otherwise noted

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase - This will be a chase with the same rules as the ML series chase.

Score First Chase - Same rules as ML series Chase.

Did this last year and it ended up pretty well. With the Help of banmanJ we created extra filters and came up with new props to play such as score first and Yes score chases. It was my first time creating systems and trying to track units which i did not know how to so the +/- units were not very accurate. However the records are below

ML Series Chase - 48w-0L-1 (the 1 series had game 3 postponed so put it as a push but could count as loss as well)
UnOff. ML Series Chase - 42w-1L
No Score - 97w 53L
Yes Score Chase - 99-9-1 (the 1 series had game 3 postponed so put it as a push but could count as loss as well)
Score First Chase - 39-4-1 (the 1 series had game 3 postponed so put it as a push but could count as loss as well)

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-0L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%

MLB 4/5/12

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase
Gm1 PHI (-165) 1x
Gm1 DET (-141) 1x

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted)
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
No Plays

Score First Chase
No Plays

Leans
Score First Chase
GM1 LAD (-175)

[ghost212]

Can i ask how many units u place in chasing game 2 and 3 ?

[calmeat]

As of right now I will only be chasing that 1 unit. It may change based on matchups and such but right now ill be only chasing that original one unit.

[calmeat]

Nice 3-0 today. Looks like a lot of peeps did well today.

Got my bets ready for tomorrow but will wait to post them till tomorrow just in case something changes.

Remember SBR points are a GREAT way to say thanks!

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 2w-0L-0open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-0L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%

MLB 4/6/12

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +2u
Gm1 LAA (-215) 1x

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted)
SFG/ARI (-140) 1x

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
No Plays

Score First Chase
Gm1 LAA (-130) 1x

LEANS
NO score 1st
LAD/SD (-160) 1x

[calmeat]

Ill be at the Phils game at 9 AM so wont have time to post tomorrow but here are my plays.
YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 3w-0L-0open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-1L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%




MLB 4/9/12 +2.6u


ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +3u
GM1 PHI(-147) 1X
GM1 LAA(-160) 1X
GM1 STL(+115) 1X
GM1 NYY(-148) 1X




No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -1.4u
No Plays


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
No Plays


Score First Chase +1u
No Plays

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 6w-0L-1open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-1L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/10/12 +5.75u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +6.15u
GM1 DET(-107) 1X
GM1 LAD(-230) 1X
GM1 ARI(-114) 1x

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -1.4u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
No Plays

Score First Chase +1u
No Plays

Leans
Score First
LAD (-135) 1/2x

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 9w-0L-1open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-1L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/11/12 +8.75u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +9.15u
GM2 PHI(-140) 1X

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -1.4u
DET/TB (-145) 1x

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
No Plays

Score First Chase +1u
No Plays

Leans
CIN ML (-125) 1x

[calmeat]

That was a good series up 10units 10-0 on UnOfficial ML chase. Just need to be patient with the props right now.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 10w-0L-0open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 10w-0L-0open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%


MLB 4/13/12 +8.3u


ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +10.15u
GM1 STL (-195) 1x
GM1 MIL (+112) 1x
GM1 ARI (-102) 1x
GM1 DET (-115) 1x
GM1 TEX (-154) 1x


No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
CWS/DET .5x


Score First Chase +1u
No Plays


Leans
Tracking GM1 for UnML Chase
NYY -146
TB +106
WSH -138
NYM +163
BAL +168
SEA -155

Score First
LAA -130
ARI -145

[jnsbanman]

No love in this thread either eh?

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 11w-0L-4open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-1open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%


MLB 4/14/12 +9.3u


ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +11.15u
GM2 STL (-200) 2.95x
GM2 MIL (110) 2.12x
GM2 ARI (+130) 2.02x
GM2 DET (+103) 2.15x




No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
CWS/DET 1x


Score First Chase +1u
No Plays


Leans
Tracking GM2 for UnML Chase
TB +110
SEA -155

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 12w-0L-3open 100%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-0L-1open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%


MLB 4/15/12 +10.3u


ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +12.15u
GM3 MIL (+130) 4.45x
GM3 ARI (-100) 3.58x
GM3 DET (-110) 4.23x


No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
CWS/DET 2x


Score First Chase +1u
No Plays

[Alki]

Hey Cal,
Missed your thread from day 1 but just caught up with you today. Good to see you back again this year. Looking forward to following along with you again this baseball season.
Thanks for posting your work.

[calmeat]

Hey Alki,
Welcome back. Yeah we will tread lightly in the beginning since certain stats aren't flushed out, right now i am still thinking of playing the unofficial ML chase (most of them are actual system plays though right now) MIL was a gut feeling that they would not get swept vs ATL but my gut is obviously not always right. I personally played ARI, STL, and TEX at 2x and DET and MIL at 1x but didnt want to post that cause one of those 2x losses could push people away. New series will be starting tomorrow so will have them up in the AM. Peace.

[calmeat]

*Note - Dropping unit size to 3% of BR until full system is running.
YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 14w-1L-0open 93.3%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 0w-1L-0open 0%
Score First Chase - 1w-0L-0open 100%


MLB 4/16/12 +6.57u


ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +10.72u
GM1 WSH (-265) 1.5x
GM1 NYY (-190) 1x
GM1 DET (-190) 2x
GM1 ARI (-140) 2x


No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -2.3
GM1 ARI/PIT (-105) 1x


Score First Chase +1u
GM1 DET (-180) 1x

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 17w-1L-1open 94.44%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 1w-1L-0open 50%
Score First Chase - 2w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/17/12 +14.07u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +16.22u
GM2 NYY (-230) 2.90x
GM2 CWS (-138) 1x - added 4/17
Gm2 WSH (-170) 1x - restart series
GM1 STL (-120) 2x


No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -1.3
GM1 LAD/MIL (-105) 1x

Score First Chase +2u
GM2 NYM (-140) 1x
Gm1 CLE (-145) 1x
Gm1 LAD (-130) 1x

[Alki]

With ya Cal. GL

[calmeat]

Lets get 'em Alki!

[calmeat]

So this is the last series until inter-league for the Props. Going to stick mostly with ML chases with exception to one or two props depending on teams and match ups. here is today's

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 20w-1L-1open 95.24%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 1w-1L-1open 50%
Score First Chase - 3w-0L-2open 100%

MLB 4/18/12 +18.07u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +20.22u
GM3 CWS (-138) 2.38

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -1.3
GM2 LAD/MIL (+105) 2.05x

Score First Chase +3u
GM3 NYM (-140) 2.40x
Gm2 LAD (-125) 2.30x

[calmeat]

Bam nice LAD Scored first in the first inning gotta love that. NYM scored first now we just need CWS to win tonight for a really good night.

[calmeat]

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 21w-1L-0open 95.45%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 2w-1L-0open 67%
Score First Chase - 5w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/19/12 +23.07u

ML Series Chase
No Plays


UnOfficial ML Series Chase +21.22u
DET (+113) 1x
ATL (-125) 1x
PHI (-121) 1x

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase -0.3
ATL/ARI (-120) .5x
PHI/SD (+110) .5x

Score First Chase +5u
PHI (-155) .5x
ATL (-155) .5x

[Alki]

Good Work Cal.

[calmeat]

alright got the props out of the way. Hoping the other 2 ML plays hit. Also thinking of switching out DET and playing TEX. After watching them you have to think they will win at least one more.

[calmeat]

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 23w-1L-1open 95.83%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 4w-1L-0open 80%
Score First Chase - 7w-0L-0open 100%

MLB 4/20/12 +27.07u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +23.22u
GM1 STL (-135) 2u
GM1 LAD (-140) 2u
GM1 TB (-180) 1u
GM1 WSH (-125) 1u
GM1 TOR (-110) 1u
GM1 CLE (-120) 1u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0.7u
GM1 NYY/BOS (-145) 0.5u

Score First Chase +6u
GM1 NYY (-150) 1u
GM1 CLE (-155) 0.5u
GM1 STL (-170) 2u

will updated with lines for props when they come out.
Also canceling Det ML chase. Splitting losses on STL and LAD.

[calmeat]

Well another good night. Hope some people are following and making some money. Expecting to finish up the 2 open bets today.

Remember if your tailing and making money i would def appreciate some SBR pts. Good luck everyone and lets get em today.

YTD
ML Series Chase - 0w-0L-0open 0%
UnOfficial ML series chase - 28w-1L-1open 96.55%
No score 1st Inning - 0w-2L 0%
Yes score 1st Inn. Chase - 5w-1L-0open 83.33%
Score First Chase - 9w-0L-1open 100%

MLB 4/21/12 +36.57u

ML Series Chase
No Plays

UnOfficial ML Series Chase +30.22u
GM2 TB (-190) 2.80u

No Score 1st Inning (No chase unless noted) -2.85u
No Plays

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase +0.7u
No Plays

Score First Chase +7.5u
GM2 STL (-155) 5.4u

[doubledime]

Hey CM,

Good luck this year. When do the official plays begin?

[calmeat]

I am thinking official plays will start next series. The UnOfficial ones have been pretty much the official ones and they seem to be doing well so will start that next series and unofficial ones will begin to be the ones that just miss the cut as an official play.

[crackerjack]

Tried to give you points and it says you can't receive points...

[calmeat]

@crackerjack
Hmm ill have to see why that is. Thanks for trying hopefully i can get that fixed. Glad to some new people.

[jnsbanman]

Can non pros still give pts?

[thes0vereign]

Can non pros still give pts?

I have no trouble sending points.

[calmeat]

Thanks for the pts.

Hopefully we close out those open bets today. Would like a nice relaxing sunday.

tempted to add tex today. I dont see DET taking both games of a doubleheader. But will probably just layoff.