Nice Value on Giants +195 with Zito

[Tsoprano]

Should of dontaed that $ to charity. Mets will win this.

[BuddyBear]

And YES Zito had value today because I gave the Giants at least a 35% chance of winning this game in his current form. You do the math at +195.

He's one of the worst money pitchers in the league. He's near the bottom and his team has won a total of less than 28% of his starts. I wish you good luck....but this to me is a losing proposition to back a pitcher as poor as Zito regardless of a minimal edge you might find.

[pokernut9999]

I only saw value in the over 4.5 first 5 innings.

So I am a happy camper


No sweating anything out for me on this game.

[LT Profits]

Most gamblers are short-term thinkers and have no concept of value. I give the Giants around a 35% chance of winning this ONE GAME, so of course the odds are 65/35 against me. But if I make this bet at +195 100 times and go 35-65 as I expect, I win LONG TERM.

THAT is all that matters in this game, thus valuie means everything.

[onthewhat]

they arent playing this game 100 times, they are playing once

mets have the edge

[BuddyBear]

I guess....good luck then!

[LT Profits]

BB,

But my argument is that Zito is NOT as horribel as you are saying, and he has in fact been good on the road. Also, ANY advantage is bettable because those small edges add up over time. It is better to go 54% over 500 plays than 60% over 150 plays.

[cobra_king]

Alot of results orientated thinking going on here!

[LT Profits]

they arent playing this game 100 times, they are playing once

mets have the edge

WRONG! You missed my point entirely, as this is a perfect example of SHORT-TERM thinking. Remember I do this for a living, so I have no choice but to think long term.

[onthewhat]

well you're only up like 5 units on the season...you might want to get a day job

[BuddyBear]

You won't hear a dispute from me LT. I know you are one of the sharper cappers and respect your opinion regardless. I just think you are over-estimating Zito's ability, although so far so good. I certainly understand the concept of advantage betting and continue to appreciate your insights and analysis on this game and many others....

[LT Profits]

well you're only up like 5 units on the season...you might want to get a day job

I'm still living off of my College Hoop and Hockey winnings this year.

Besides, I bottomed out at -13 units in MLB this year, so I've been OK since then and there is still a long ways to go.

[pavyracer]

LT, you are preaching to the choir. I'd take a +200 Zito/Maine matchup every time.

[woodg8]

well you're only up like 5 units on the season...you might want to get a day job

true that

[LT Profits]

true that

Excuse me, I've had a winning record in every sport this year. OK, NBA was flat and I only ended up +1.70 units, but the other sports more than made up for that.

Where are your records?

[Tsoprano]

I only saw value in the over 4.5 first 5 innings.

So I am a happy camper


No sweating anything out for me on this game.

Nice call

[onthewhat]

it doesn't matter what our records are...we win multiple units per day by having jobs.

[Tsoprano]

This wood dude talks a lot of shit

[johnnymapalo]

Ok, the game is tied 3-3 but Zito had nothing to do wid it. That ediot Maine walking those batters and throwing wild pitches into the ocean is what got those 3 runs for San Fran.. Zito is still a square..

[woodg8]

This wood dude talks a lot of shit

Oh dear, have i upset you?

[LT Profits]

it doesn't matter what our records are...we win multiple units per day by having jobs.

I haven't worked in the "real" world in eight years, and I am supporting a wife, three kids and two mortgages. And you sure can't beat the freedom of not reporting to a boss!

[smitch124]

Ok, the game is tied 3-3 but Zito had nothing to do wid it. That ediot Maine walking those batters and throwing wild pitches into the ocean is what got those 3 runs for San Fran.. Zito is still a square..

Thats what gives a +195 play value in MLB, other crap can happen and often does...

[unde0087]

Mets will win this, they are on fire now

[Tsoprano]

Oh dear, have i upset you?

nope.

[fifawcs]

Lt, What was ur job before u became a professional gambler/investor?

[LT Profits]

Ok, the game is tied 3-3 but Zito had nothing to do wid it. That ediot Maine walking those batters and throwing wild pitches into the ocean is what got those 3 runs for San Fran.. Zito is still a square..

Well it's not like Zito was terrible, he left in a 3-3 game. A tied game from the seventh inning on is anyone's game, so win or lose, I'd rather be sitting with a +195 ticket at this point than a -220 (or whatever Mets were).

[LT Profits]

An accountant by trade fifa.

[Wilforth]

BB,

But my argument is that Zito is NOT as horribel as you are saying, and he has in fact been good on the road. Also, ANY advantage is bettable because those small edges add up over time. It is better to go 54% over 500 plays than 60% over 150 plays.

And when you're 54% on value plays (say between -110 to +130, for instance), you're way ahead of someone who's 80% on chalky plays (say between -220 to -400)!

[woodg8]

**** sakes, 5-3 now

[onthewhat]

5-3 mets

[SBR Lou]

Looks like this one will go over, darn I wanted to take that.

[BuddyBear]

And when you're 54% on value plays (say between -110 to +130, for instance), you're way ahead of someone who's 80% on chalky plays (say between -220 to -400)!

All i said, is that Zito is horrible and his team is horrible too. I just disagreed with Zito having a 35% chance of winning, not the thought process. I would say that 35% if more accurate if he starts in TripleA game right now....

[LT Profits]

Yeah, Tatis 2-run bomb. But even if I lose this, it doesn't change any of the points I made in ths thread. Remember, this is a marathon not a sprint.

[pokernut9999]

LT has a business that makes money also.

[fifawcs]

Lt, What kind of income tax do you have to pay?