Now that we're basically a third of the way through the season, I think there are enough stats to truly start a performance based system. I posted this system on a couple other forums last year...if you look around you'll find it.
Here is a "short" breakdown of how the system will work:
This system is based on how teams perform in a 2, 3, or 4 game series at home or on the road. Based on a rather complicated formula, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series. That means, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series. Also, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series. We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each play. The plays are decided based on the matchups. This system is dynamic so there are no set teams to play on. As the season progresses, we collect team data that will put matchups in or out of the system. That means we don't always start betting on the first game of a series and we don't always chase after a team in a series if we lose the first game. As each day is completed and the results are processed, the factors that decide the plays for each team changes. I think this is the most important part of the system and one of the major reasons it has such great potential. You are relying on up to the minute data. The team to play on and if you play the road or home team, is completely dependent on the numbers. That means teams will move in and out of the system depending on 1)how good or bad they do, 2) how good or bad their opponent does, and 3) how good or bad the league does AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.
I don’t promise you’ll win a million units, but I do promise rock solid record keeping, a fun thread, and an interesting project to follow. Unlike many people here, I have no grandiose dreams of becoming a professional gambler and trying to make millions. This is more about my personal passion for sports and the challenge of trying to come up with a system that wins consistently. Hopefully we’ll make a few bucks along the way.
Good luck
Leprechaun
Here is a "short" breakdown of how the system will work:
This system is based on how teams perform in a 2, 3, or 4 game series at home or on the road. Based on a rather complicated formula, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series. That means, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series. Also, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series. We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each play. The plays are decided based on the matchups. This system is dynamic so there are no set teams to play on. As the season progresses, we collect team data that will put matchups in or out of the system. That means we don't always start betting on the first game of a series and we don't always chase after a team in a series if we lose the first game. As each day is completed and the results are processed, the factors that decide the plays for each team changes. I think this is the most important part of the system and one of the major reasons it has such great potential. You are relying on up to the minute data. The team to play on and if you play the road or home team, is completely dependent on the numbers. That means teams will move in and out of the system depending on 1)how good or bad they do, 2) how good or bad their opponent does, and 3) how good or bad the league does AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.
I don’t promise you’ll win a million units, but I do promise rock solid record keeping, a fun thread, and an interesting project to follow. Unlike many people here, I have no grandiose dreams of becoming a professional gambler and trying to make millions. This is more about my personal passion for sports and the challenge of trying to come up with a system that wins consistently. Hopefully we’ll make a few bucks along the way.
Good luck
Leprechaun
Annoying but that's life in the gambling world. I'm always reminded...it's just as hard to go 0-4 as it is to go 4-0!
The gambling gods do not like the first posted week of any system. We will take it very easy here but when we go on a run we'll get aggressive. Anyone who followed this system last year knows that I keep plugging along through thick and thin. No matter what happens, I'll carry this thread to the all star break at least. We'll reevaluate at that point. Lots of plays on the board today so let's get a few W's and turn this in the right direction.
. I'll be happy to end today and get to a new week. We keep going...but this system is looking dead before it even got going. Maybe I'll start fading it.
GL!
A little tight on time today...let's gain some momentum here and knock a few units off this deficit.
Let's hope today goes better.