BB Home dog 2011

[BetaB]

another winning day.

Phil over W +24
Twins under W + 24
Brewer W + 28
Mets L -24
Padres L -24
Braves L -24
Dback W + 29
TB rays W +24

5-3 + 53

YTD:25-18 +266.55 ( Target Reached ) more than 25% increase in BR.

[BetaB]

Now, i'm officially lost on how to proceed. It was suppose to take at least half a month to reach the goal but just 5 days i have done it. Not sure what will happen from now on.... Probably going to lay low for a bit.


Also, i MIN game 2 total ever got back up to 8.0 in game to take the under on live bet.

[BetaB]

Looking back. the past month had been crazy. I went from 37-40 -30 on the 6th of August betting typically 50USD per play to 100-80 +1024 on the 21th which concluded my main project.
Then 22th to 31 i went 21-7 +414.75 with typically 25USD per play and 25-18 +266.5 again with 25 USD per bet.

overall 109- 65 (62.3%) over the period

I know that my stake is already lower after the main project ended (to protect my profit obviously) but now i want to lowered it again, but i wonder if 15 USD per unit will worth the time and effort....

[Optional]

Maybe withdraw, bank some profit, and reset your BR back to starting amount. Rather than reduce unit size.

Most people around here would be thinking of increasing unit size at this point. How come you are all contrarian?

[BetaB]

Maybe withdraw, bank some profit, and reset your BR back to starting amount. Rather than reduce unit size.

Most people around here would be thinking of increasing unit size at this point. How come you are all contrarian?

Because, i know my expected ROI and currently i've been exceed by miles. I'm not as optimistic to think that my plays will keep performing that much better than expected. Besides, i'd a bad streak earlier in the season and i taught me to not getting over excited. Personally, i love winning but i hate losing much much more especially when that one lose took away 2-3 wins worth.

Note: My ROI is estimated at around 5% but since i'm using MB i would be around 6-7%.

[BetaB]

One play so far.

CUBS 20 USD

[BetaB]

ok

1Cards
2Padres
3Cubs
4Dback

all 25 USD play

Well make it 24

[ebbearsfb1]

Good luck beta heard you say your killing bases.. your. Playing these each to win 24?

[BetaB]

Nah risked 24. They are all dogs.

[Optional]

Because, i know my expected ROI and currently i've been exceed by miles. I'm not as optimistic to think that my plays will keep performing that much better than expected. Besides, i'd a bad streak earlier in the season and i taught me to not getting over excited. Personally, i love winning but i hate losing much much more especially when that one lose took away 2-3 wins worth.

Note: My ROI is estimated at around 5% but since i'm using MB i would be around 6-7%.

You are the same as me, fear of losing my BR is greater than greed to win big.

Unusual in gamblers it seems.

Maybe we are not.

[BetaB]

1 play added

FLA to win 24 (Favorite)

[ebbearsfb1]

I'm tailing good use a good end to the season for bases

[BetaB]

Final card today

Florida Marlins -119 $28.56 $24.00
Chicago Cubs +121 $24.00 $29.04
St Louis Cardinals +110 $24.00 $26.40
Arizona Diamondbacks +102 $24.00 $24.48
San Diego Padres +100 $24.00 $24.00

[Optional]

That'll learn you for starting a thread about how well you are going. ;-)

[BetaB]

Florida Marlins -119 $28.56 $24.00 L -28.56
Chicago Cubs +121 $24.00 $29.04 L -24
St Louis Cardinals +110 $24.00 $26.40 W +26.4
Arizona Diamondbacks +102 $24.00 $24.48 L -24
San Diego Padres +100 $24.00 $24.00 L -24

1-4 -74.16

Two though extra inning loses.

YTD:26-22 +192.34

[BetaB]

Florida Marlins -119 $28.56 $24.00 L -28.56
Chicago Cubs +121 $24.00 $29.04 L -24
St Louis Cardinals +110 $24.00 $26.40 W +26.4
Arizona Diamondbacks +102 $24.00 $24.48 L -24
San Diego Padres +100 $24.00 $24.00 L -24

1-4 -74.16

Two though extra inning loses.

YTD:26-22 +192.34

[BetaB]

CWS over
LAA under
Marlins
Padres
Cubs
Astro
LAD
Phillies
STL

all 24 USD

[BetaB]

1CWS over W + 26.64(+111)
2LAA under Pending
3Marlins L -24
4Padres W 31.2 (+130)
5Cubs W 25.68 (+107)
6Astro L -24
7LAD Cancelled +0
8Phillies W +24
9STL W + 24

5-2 and 1 pending + 83.5

YTD:31-24 +275.86 with LAA under 9 pending

[BetaB]

LAA under Winner +24

Today: 6-2 +107.5
YTD: 32-24 + 299.86

[BetaB]

One play i really like for tomorrow

CWS over.

[BetaB]

Ok aside from CWS over. I got

KC under
Mets Over (G1)
Tor
Brewer 30SD play
Mets (G1) 30USD play
Padres

all play are 24USD unless state otherwise.

[BetaB]

Come on Padres. Seem like i will be saved by Total play going 3-0?

[BetaB]

1 KC under W +24
2 Mets Over (G1) W + 26 (+109)
3 Tor W +24
4 Brewer 30SD play L -30
5 Mets (G1) 30USD play L -30
6 Padres L -24
7 CWS over W +24

4-3 +13.14 (roughly)

YTD: 36-29 + 313

[BetaB]

Not too bad considering how both 30 USD plays lost.

[BetaB]

From today, i will be monitoring another money management system base on Kelly Criteria. From past result on average i play around 7 game per day. ROI is estimated at 5-6% so my edge is 5.5%?? Based on Kelly Calculator i should bet 3.9% or My bBR per bet, being conservative i apply a factor of 0.7 to that so i will be 3% on each play.

BR: 1000+313 = 1313
3% or 1313 = 39.39 USD

Let's see how it go.

[Optional]

I'm not sure Kelly works based on your average historical advantage. You are supposed to size each bet based on the advantage you see in that action to enjoy the mathematical benefit.

3% x 7 = 21% of BR in play every day too. Seems a highish number for someone who was talking about lowering stakes a few days back?

[BetaB]

I'm not sure Kelly works based on your average historical advantage. You are supposed to size each bet based on the advantage you see in that action to enjoy the mathematical benefit.

3% x 7 = 21% of BR in play every day too. Seems a highish number for someone who was talking about lowering stakes a few days back?

First of all, thank for you advise.

I'm not going to really implement it, just keeping a record separately that why i used the word monitoring. The actual amount i play will still be around 24 USD per play. I know, that you should size each bet individually but i've done that before earlier on this thread and it was not worked out so well, kelly seem to overestimate some play like +145 Dog with 45% chance of winning. Beside, my estimate is already of a lower bound (conservative).

Also, i must admit that i do not know how to convert from ROI to edge and that might screw me up.

Hopefully, they will star the NBA season since NBA is probably the only sport where i can accurately gauge my edge for ATS.

[BetaB]

Lad o5.5
PIT
Brew
CUBS
Braves
DET over
LAA

All 25 USD

[BetaB]

I missed one play

LAD ML

[BetaB]

1LAD W +28.25 (+113)
2LAD over 5.5 L -25.25(-101)
3LAA W +25
4Braves L -25
5Brewers L -25
6Det O9.5 W +25
7Pit L -25
8Cubs L -25

3-5 -47 USD

YTD: 39-34 + 266

[BetaB]

For tracing purpose only

Stake based on Kelly: 39.39 per play

3-5 - 74

Remaining BR 1313-74 = 1239

tomorrow stake: = 37.17

[BetaB]

Today play

1Reds
2NYM
3Pirate
4Brew
5BAL under
6NYY under

All 25 USD

[BetaB]

added 5 USD no Brewer

[BetaB]

1Reds L -25
2NYM L -25
3Pirate L -25
4Brew L -30
5BAL under P 0
6NYY under W +25
1-4-1 -80

YTD: 40-38 + 186




Kelly stake
1-4-1 -11.5
BR 1127
Tomorrow play 33.9 per game

[BetaB]

1Mets
2Cards
3Giants
4Astro
5Pit
6Rays
7Rays under
8Mariners
9Mariners Under
10 Phi

Mets 35USD, the rest 25 USD