BB Home dog 2011

[BetaB]

1 Nats@+110 Risk 33 to win 36.2
2 Mets @-130 Risk 33 to win 25.4
3 Royals @ +103 Risk 33 to win 34

[BetaB]

Day 26 Update:

1 Nats@+110 Risk 33 to win 36.2 Won +36.2
2 Mets @-130 Risk 33 to win 25.4 Won +25.4
3 Royals @ +103 Risk 33 to win 34 Lost -33

2-1 +28.6

YTD: 67-50 +96.6

[BetaB]

Well, can't get on SBR for the past 2 days, plays will resume after inter league.

[BetaB]

Ok, time to get back on MLB

Gonna start off fresh with 540 BR with around 800 in reserved. I expect ROI to be around 3.5-4.5%, let's see what will happen. Basically, for favorite bet 5% and for dog bet to win 5% in this case 26 USD.

1Over 9.0 (KC/CHW) -101 $26.00 $25.74
2Toronto +127 $20.47 $26.00
3Cleveland +119 $22 $26.18
4Over 9.5 (TOR/BOS) -100 $26.00 $26

5Houston +122 $21.31 $26.00
6Arizona +133 $19.55 $26.00
7Over 7.5 (ARZ/MIL) -102 $26.00 $25.49
8New York (N) +106 $24.53 $26.00
9Cincinnati +114 $22.45 $25.59

[BetaB]

got bad line on Over Arizona and Houston and Mets and Toronto should have wait a little. Great line on Jays/Sox over and Dback though. Total Risk 208.31

[BetaB]

Argh a push for CWS, pull the trigger far too early. From now on i will list play and update odd later close to game time as i have seen many line moved so significantly e.g. Tor went at least +10 cents as well as CWS over went up more than 20 cents and you may realized that for 50% hit rate every 2 cents pretty much mean 1% extra ROI so this is greatly important.

[BetaB]

Summary below include commission from Matchbook

1Over 9.0 (KC/CHW) -101 $26.00 $25.74 Push +0
2Toronto +127 $20.47 $26.00 Won +25.94
3Cleveland +119 $22 $26.18 Won 26.16
4Over 9.5 (TOR/BOS) -100 $26.00 $26 Won 25.84

5Houston +122 $21.31 $26.00 Lost -21.35
6Arizona +133 $19.55 $26.00 Won 25.95
7Over 7.5 (ARZ/MIL) -102 $26.00 $25.49 Won 25.36
8New York (N) +106 $24.53 $26.00 Won 25.95
9Cincinnati +114 $22.45 $25.59 Won -22.63

6-2 +110 (on 540 BR). Current BR 650 USD

YTD: 73-52 +206.6 (Previous project YTD: 67-50 +96.6 on 300 BR included)

[BetaB]

Play resume with

BR = 650 ie 5% = 32.5 and 4% = 26 and 1.5% = 10

CWS risked 5%
Marlins risked to win 4%
LAA risked to win 4%
Twins Risked to win 4%
Indians Risked to win 4%
Rangers Risked 1.5%
Pirates Risked 1.5%

[BetaB]

Baseball
Detroit (Verlander) at Los Angeles (A) (Haren) Money Line Los Angeles (A) +107 24.30 26.00
Houston (Rodriguez) at Pittsburgh (Karstens) Money Line Pittsburgh -110 10.00 9.09
Kansas City (Paulino) at Chicago (A) (Peavy) Money Line Chicago (A) -140 32.50 23.21
New York (A) (Sabathia) at Cleveland (Carrasco) Money Line Cleveland +148 17.69 26.18
Philadelphia (Hamels) at Florida (Volstad) Money Line Florida +151 17.22 26.00
Tampa Bay (Shields) at Minnesota (Baker) Money Line Minnesota +109 23.85 25.99

[BetaB]

Straight from my BM account Baseball
Detroit (Verlander) at Los Angeles (A) (Haren) Money Line 07/06/11 00:43 24.30 25.95
Kansas City (Paulino) at Chicago (A) (Peavy) Money Line 07/05/11 23:10 32.50 -32.69
Tampa Bay (Shields) at Minnesota (Baker) Money Line 07/05/11 22:59 23.85 25.94
New York (A) (Sabathia) at Cleveland (Carrasco) Money Line 07/05/11 22:27 17.69 -17.73
Philadelphia (Hamels) at Florida (Volstad) Money Line 07/05/11 22:18 17.22 -17.25
Houston (Rodriguez) at Pittsburgh (Karstens) Money Line 07/05/11 21:41 10.00 9.07

Damn, As you can see in previous post i forgot to bet on Texas. Never mine, it was a small one anyway.

Result: 3W - 3L(exclude Texas game) -7USD

YTD: 76-55 +199.6

BR 643 USD

[BetaB]

2 plays:

1 Tiger/LAA under 8.5 Risked to win 32(5%) @ +odd
2 Florida risked 32 (-odd)

[BetaB]

LAA U8.5 for +116 Risked 27.5 to win 32
Florida -129 Risk 32 to win 24.8

[BetaB]

Argh. i'm mad. Should have gotten a push with LAA. This is the second time in 3 days that 1/2 point cost me even though i only played a handful of total.

Philadelphia (Kendrick) at Florida (Sanchez) Money Line 07/06/11 22:36 32.00 24.61
Detroit (Penny) at Los Angeles (A) (Chatwood) Total 8.5 07/06/11 19:16 27.59 -27.73

YTD: 77-56 +196.6

BR 640 USD

Result: 1W - 1L(exclude Texas game) -3USD

[BetaB]

Only one play for today

KC Royals Risked to win 32.

[BetaB]

Kansas City +118 $27.12 $32.00 matched Lose -27.12

0-1 -27.12 USD

YTD: 77-57 +169.8
BR: 615.88

[BetaB]

NYY u9 to win 5% if dog
Bos Risked 5%
Indians Risked 5%

[BetaB]

NYY u9 to win 5% if dog
Bos Risked 5%
Indians Risked 5%

[BetaB]

Cleveland -109 $32.00 $29.36
Under 9.0 (TB/NYY) +101 $31.68 $32.00
Boston -199 $32.00 $16.08

[BetaB]

Cleveland -109 $32.00 $29.36
Under 9.0 (TB/NYY) +101 $31.68 $32.00
Boston -199 $32.00 $16.08

1-1 -13.4


YTD: 77-57 +156.4
BR: 602.48

[BetaB]

NYY U8.5 4%
NATS 5%
LAA 4%
Royal 5%
CWS 5%

[BetaB]

Seattle (Pineda) at Los Angeles (A) (Pineiro) Money Line 07/09/11 23:54 24.00 23.71
Detroit (Furbush) at Kansas City (Hochevar) Money Line 07/09/11 22:37 34.41 30.94
Colorado (Jimenez) at Washington (Marquis) Money Line 07/09/11 21:49 28.18 -28.41
Minnesota (Duensing) at Chicago (A) (Buehrle) Money Line 07/09/11 18:59 32.00 22.02
Tampa Bay (Price) at New York (A) (Burnett) Total 8.5 07/09/11 16:24 24.00 -24.11

3-2 +24

YTD 80-58 +180.4

[BetaB]

Seattle (Pineda) at Los Angeles (A) (Pineiro) Money Line 07/09/11 23:54 24.00 23.71
Detroit (Furbush) at Kansas City (Hochevar) Money Line 07/09/11 22:37 34.41 30.94
Colorado (Jimenez) at Washington (Marquis) Money Line 07/09/11 21:49 28.18 -28.41
Minnesota (Duensing) at Chicago (A) (Buehrle) Money Line 07/09/11 18:59 32.00 22.02
Tampa Bay (Price) at New York (A) (Burnett) Total 8.5 07/09/11 16:24 24.00 -24.11

3-2 +24

YTD 80-58 +180.4

[BetaB]

Only one game today.

KC risked to win 4%

[BetaB]

Very strange, got KC +171 and i though i got a bad line as it went up to almost +180. Then for some reason it's swing all the way back to +152. Injuries??

[BetaB]

Detroit (Verlander) at Kansas City (Francis) Money Line 07/10/11 17:06 14.62 -14.65

0-1
YTD:80-59
BR:608

[gohabsgo]

Home dogs are the way to go, gotta pick your spot

[BetaB]

Home dogs are the way to go, gotta pick your spot

Yeah,i realized that home dogs are +ev. The only problem with home dog is that there are only a handful or game each week. If you read through the thread you will see that i changed many things along the way and this is more like a learning thread. Having said that. i do monitored my picks for around 7 weeks now and they are +ev. So, i'm quite happy with these additional bet so far. My target is still to double my BR before the end of the season.

[BetaB]

No play until after allstar break

[BetaB]

MLB is back yeah.

[sweethook]

this looks good , gl beta

[BetaB]

3 plays tomorrow

1Ranger U7 (Lock in -124 already, line look like it will end up being U6.5) Risked 4% (Fav)
2Baltimore O Risked to win 4% (dog)
3Blue Jays Risked to win 3% (dog)

Well, not too confidence about games right after all star so i will go with 4% and 3% instead of 5%.

[BetaB]

Texas (Holland) at Seattle (Vargas) Total 7.0 07/15/11 00:35 31.00 24.95
New York (A) (Colon) at Toronto (Reyes) Money Line 07/14/11 22:09 21.05 27.77
Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles for Game. +104 27.40 -27.40

2-1: +25.42

YTD:82-60
BR:633.42

[BetaB]

Lean for today.

Mariners (small)
DB
A
PARDES
METS
Twins
Jays
Under O
Under Cubs (Small)

[BetaB]

Under 7.5 (FLA/CHC) matched -115 $23.00 $20.00 (to win 3%)

DB 5%
A 5%
PARDES 5%
METS 5%
Twins 5%
Jays 5%
Under O 5%

for dog risked to win 5% for Favorite risked 5%.


Mariners (small) to be advice later

[BetaB]

oh, dear. got Det/CWS over in my spread sheet but for some reason i forgot to post it. zzzzzzzzz