BB Home dog 2011

[BetaB]

Day13: Update

Home dog

No play

YTD:11-7 +342
BR 1342

Labby ==> change money management system ( No one should be complaining about this since it's had been profitable everyday except for the first day).

YTD: 24-12 + 142.9

BR 442.9

Total YTD:35-19

Note: As i mentioned above, i ****** up total play on NYY and CWS which both turn out to be a winner. Great day for those who tailed and hopefully people take mine advice not to play NYY with real money. Also, the past 2 weeks had been incredible and i would like to be more conservative a little more from the coming week.

To new follower: I do not post stakes for each play in unit format but in % of BR because stakes are being calculated using Kelly criteria. Also, please note that with these picks to be sufficiently profitable one will need at least a reduced juice book at the very least especially for total bets.

[BetaB]

hi good luck with what u r doing..

I am interested and will follow your thread

Thanks for visiting, hopefully this great run will continue.

[BetaB]

Day14:

Home dog play (Posts below based on Pinny line, of course i will try to get the best line possible from MB so i will be waiting for better price)

1:Astros +157 Risking 40 to win 62.8 Lost -40

2:Blue Jays +132 Risking 31 to win 40.92 Lost -31

0-2 -71USD
Labby line will be updated later

YTD:11-9 +271

[BetaB]

Update to what previously called a labby line:
1:Parder ML -152 Risking 12 to win 7.9 Lost -12
2:LAA U8.5 -108 10 to win 9.25 WON 9.25
3:NYY U10 -103 17 to win 16.5 Lost -17
4:Blue Jays O9.5 +107 32.5 to win 34.8 Lost -32.5
Also, it would be a good idea to ignore LAA game if your odd is somewhere above -112.

One play for tracing purpose only PHI U

Be warned that line on both home dog drop quite sharply esp Astros and it would be wised to lower the stake if you didn't catch both play at the odd listed above.

[BetaB]

Day14:Update

Home dog: 0-2 -71USD
YTD:11-9 +271
BR 1271

Labby:
1-3 - 52.5
YTD 25-15 +90.65
BR 390.65

Well, i'm glad i reduced my bet size on the right day. This take the pressure off me a little bit which is not such a bad thing.

[BetaB]

Day15:

Home dog
1: Astro +108 Risking 80 to win 86.4

Labby:
1Ranger -130 Risking 14
2:Padres U6.5 +102 Risking 20
3:Tiger U7.5 +105 Risking 25

[BetaB]

Day 15:Update
1: Astro +108 Risking 80 to win 86.4 Lost -80

YTD:11-10 +191
BR 1191

Labby:
1Ranger -130 Risking 14 Lost-14
2:Padres U6.5 +102 Risking 20 WON +20.4
3:Tiger U7.5 +105 Risking 25 Lost -25

YTD 26-17 +72.5
BR 372.5

[BetaB]

Day:16
Home Dog:
1:Astro +141 Risking 59 to win 84

2:Blue Jays +150 Risking 7 to win 10.5

3:Marlin +107 Risking 82 to win 87.75

Labby 2 playS

Padres Under 6.5 @-115 Risking 11 to win 9.56
Rockies under 8 +104 risking 27

[BetaB]

Day:16 Update
Home Dog:
1:Astro +141 Risking 59 to win 84 Lost -84

2:Blue Jays +150 Risking 7 to win 10.5 Lost -7

3:Marlin +107 Risking 82 to win 87.75 Lost -82

0-3 -174
YTD 11-13 +17
BR 1017

Labby 2 playS

Padres Under 6.5 @-115 Risking 11 to win 9.56 Won +9.56
Rockies under 8 +104 risking 27 Lost -27

1-1 - 17.44
YTD: 27-18 +55

Total YTD:38-31

[BetaB]

Day17: Home dog

1 Astro +116
Risking 69 to win 80

Labby:
BR 355 ==> 5% = 18(Rounded up)
1Rockies/Padres U9.5 +115 Risking 18 to win 20.5

[BetaB]

ok, the pass few days had been tough as a consequence i looked back on all my home dog play and upon doing so realized that i performed just a little below what i's expected ROI of around 5% with ROI = 1.26% (Risked 1344 Won 17), but util last night it's performed far beyond my expectation so we will have to wait and see.

On another note, i must admit that my secondary pick (what i used to called Labby) took quite a big hit and the main reason for this is that i simply can not accurately gauge winning% with 0.5 point change in total which will give you significantly +odd, putting these odd in to Kelly calculator and you simply get a very large streak which evidently wiped out my profit from previous 20 or so pick very quickly. In response, i will change the money management on these secondary play to 5% of BR and see what will happen. Of course, i'm still confident that these picks have +ev and will show profit, just that having 10+% on one game @ +126 doesn't not seem to be a good money management.

[BetaB]

Day17 Update


1 Astro +116
Risking 69 to win 80 WON +80

1-0 +80
YTD 12-13 +97
BR 1097

Secondary plays:
BR 355 ==> 5% = 18(Rounded up)
1Rockies/Padres U9.5 +115 Risking 18 to win 20.5 WON +20.5

1-0 +20.5
YTD: 28-18 +75.5

Total YTD:40-31

[BetaB]

Day17: Home dog

1: No play

Secondary plays
BR 375.5 ==> 5% = 19(Rounded up), 4% = 15USD

1 LAA -130
2 Brave O7 -120
3 Rockies U10 -113
4 NYY U8.5 -119
5 Nats +129
6 Giants +109

All play Risk 19 to win whatever.
7 Red Sox

Stake to be advised later

[BetaB]

Day17 Update:

Secondary plays

1 LAA -130 Won +14.6
2 Brave O7 -120 Push +0
3 Rockies U10 -113 Won +16.8
4 NYY U8.5 -119 Lose -19
5 Nats +129 [COLOR="SeaGreen)"]Won +25[/COLOR]
6 Giants +109 Won + 20.7
7 Red Sox Lose -19

4-2 +39.1

YTD: 32-20 +114.6
BR 414.6

[BetaB]

Day:18
Home Dog:

NO PLAY

Secondary play:

Two plays

Astro U7.5 Risking 18 @ 100
Dback U8.5 Risking 18 @ 100

[BetaB]

Day:18
Home Dog:

NO PLAY

Secondary play:

Two plays

Astro U7.5 Risking 18 @ 100 Lost -100
Dback U8.5 Risking 18 @ 100 Won +100

1-1 +0

YTD: 33-21 +114.6
BR 414.6

[BetaB]

Day:19
Home Dog:

1:Cubs (to be advised)

Secondary play

Astro U8 @-111 Risking 20
Tiger U8.5@+110 Risking 20
Nats @-108 Risking 20
Astro @ -107 Risking 20
Braves @-120 Risking 20
Dback @-140 Risking 20
Twins @ -101 Risking 20
Brewer @ -122 Risking 20

Experimental play (do not recommend unless you get access to MB)
Twins RL Risking 4
Pirates RL Risking 4 WON
Mets RL Risking 4
Giants RL

[BetaB]

Not sure if i will play the Cubs since line had moved against them rather significantly.

[BetaB]

Day:19 Update

Secondary play

Astro U8 @-111 Risking 20 Lost -20
Tiger U8.5@+110 Risking 20 WON +22
Nats @-108 Risking 20 WON +19
Astro @ -107 Risking 20 Lost -20
Braves @-120 Risking 20 WON +16.7
Dback @-140 Risking 20 WON 14.3
Twins @ -101 Risking 20 WON +20
Brewer @ -122 Risking 20 Lost -20

5-3 +32.6
YTD:38-24 +446.6

RL experiment
Pirates RL Risking 4 @-210 WON
Mets RL Risking 4 -190 WON
Giants RL Risking 4 @ -170 WON


3-0 + 6.4
Great win on Giant RL + Dback ML

[BetaB]

Since, inter league play is coming up. I might play only half the amount on these games.

[sweethook]

nice work man , gl

[BetaB]

Day 20 Update:

Possible Play(1-2% each)

Cardinals
Indians
Mets
Red Sox
Red

Cardinals Over 8
Indians Over 8
Mets Over 8
Red Sox Over 9.5
Red Over 9.5
Rays under8.5

RL tracing

Marlins RL (Optional play)

[BetaB]

Day20

Home Dog: No play

Secondary plays

Stake update: BR 446 will based play on 2% = 9 USD 2.5% = 11 USD

Cardinals Risk 9 @-173(-166)
Indians Risk 9 @ -139(-131)
Mets Risk 11 @ -124(-119)
Red Sox Risk 11 @-131(-130)
Red Risk 9 @-148(-143)

Cardinals Over 8 Risk 11 @ +100(+106)
Indians Over 8 Risk 11 @ -101(+107)
Mets Over 8 Risk 11 @ +121(109 O7.5)
Red Sox Over 9.5 Risk 11 @+104(+110)
Red Over 9.5 Risk 11 @-108(-105)
Rays under9.5 Risk 11 @ -107(-106)

RL tracing

Marlins RL (Optional play)@-150 SBR point play only

[BetaB]

nice work man , gl

Thank you and goodluck

[BetaB]

Day20 Update

Home Dog: No play

Secondary plays


Cardinals Risk 9 @-173(-166)
Indians Risk 9 @ -139(-131)
Mets Risk 11 @ -124(-119)
Red Sox Risk 11 @-131(-130)
Red Risk 9 @-148(-143)

Cardinals Over 8 Risk 11 @ +100(+106)
Indians Over 8 Risk 11 @ -101(+107)
Mets Over 8 Risk 11 @ +121(109 O7.5)
Red Sox Over 9.5 Risk 11 @+104(+110)
Red Over 9.5 Risk 11 @-108(-105)
Rays under9.5 Risk 11 @ -107(-106)

5-6 -14USD (according to MB odd)
YTD:43-30 +432.6

RL tracing
Marlins RL (Optional play)@-150 SBR point play only

[BetaB]

Day21: Home dog 2 plays

1 Mets +116

1Cubs @ +134 Risk 25
2Dback @ +103 Risk 25

Secondary PLays:
A' @-102 Risk 10.8
Red Sox @-178 Risk 10.8
Rockies @-152 Risk 10.8
Twins @-137 Risk 10.8
Cards U9 -123 Risk 10.8

Braves @ Risk 5

[BetaB]

Make mistakes on the previous post, have a new card as follow

Home dogs:
1Cubs @ 134 Risking 30
2Dback @ 109 Risking 30

Secondary plays

Twins @-133 Risking 11
Rockies -143 Risking 11
Rays -140 Risking 11
Mariners-138 Risking 11
Indians -140 Risking 11
Card U9 +110 Risk 11

[BetaB]

Hopefully, Mariners and Rockies will come through and give us a sweep. Dback comeback would also be nice.

[BetaB]

I got to admit that, i've been considering about split my BR more evenly between the original home dog plays and Secondary plays. NVM update here.

Day21: Update
Home dogs:

1Cubs @ 134 Risking 30 Lost -30
2Dback @ 109 Risking 30 Lost -30

0-2 -60
YTD 12-15 +37
BR 1037


Secondary plays

Twins @-133 Risking 11 WON +8.2
Rockies -143 Risking 11 WON +7.7
Rays -140 Risking 11 WON +7.85
Mariners-138 Risking 11 Lost -11
Indians -140 Risking 11 WON +7.85
Card U9 +110 Risk 11 Push +0

4-1 so far +20
YTD:47-31 +452.6

Now even if Seattle lost i would still reach the first milestone of 50% increase in BR.

[BetaB]

Also, i would give SBR 70 points for anyone who can put all the secondary plays and labby line play on spreadsheet. I want to calculate ROI for those and re-evaluate my money management plan but not have the time atm.

[BetaB]

Home dog play

Colorado Rockies +130 Risking 37 to win 51 Lost -37
0-1 Lost 37

YTD 12-16 +0
BR: 1000

Secondary plays

1Nats @-129 Risking 11 to win 8.5 Lost -11
2Indians @-145 Risking 11 to win 7.6 Won +7
3Mets @ -133 Risk 11 to win 8.27 Lost -11
4Twins @-143 Risk 11 to win 7.7 Won +7.7

2-2 -7.3
YTD:49-33 +445.3

[BetaB]

As thing are now, it look like i'm back to the start with Home dog play and play might not be resume until inter league is over. So, i would like to use this opportunity to spread out the BR a little as illustrated below.

Home dag BR: 500

Secondary play BR 600

Reserved: 345.3

[BetaB]

Day23:

Secondary plays

1Pits @-110
2Pit O8 @+104
3Cleveland@-114
4Atlanta @-118
5Florida@+117
6Florida O7@+121
7Texas@-174
8Texas O10@-110
9 Chicago(A)@-148
10 Chicago(A) O8.5@+106
11. Milwaukee@-135
12 Milwaukee O9@104

All play risk 15 except CWS and Brewer Risk 18.

6-6 -15 USD
YTD:55-39 +130.3

[BetaB]

Day 24:

Secondary Plays

Giants Risk 15 Lost
Braves Risk 15 Won
Mets Risk 15 Lost
Nats Risk 15 Won
Indians Risk 15 Lost
Rangers Risk 15 Won
Red SoX Risk 15 Lost
Royals Risk 30 Lost
CWS Risk 15 Won
Giants O7 Risk 15 Won
Royals O9 Risk 15 Push
LAD Risk 15 Won

6-5 -19

YTD:61-44 +111

[BetaB]

Ok got more time on hand now, so hopefully thing will go more smoothly.

Day25:

As usual no home dog play.

Secondary play
BR 600-15-19 = 566USD 4% = 22 and 5% = 28

Indians@-126 Risked 22 to win 17.4 WON +17.4
Rangers@ -185 Risked 22 to win 12 Lost -22
Red Sox@-208 Risked 22 to win 10.8 Lost -22
Royal@+110 Risked 22 to win 24.2 Lost -22
CWS@-175Risked 22 to win 12.57 Won +12.57
Braves@-145Risked 28 to win 19.3 [COLOR=SeaGreen"]Won +19.3[/COLOR]
LAD@+101 Risked 28 to win 28.28 Lost -28
NATS@-106 Risked 28 to win 26.4 Won +26.4

Parlay
Boston+Ranger+CWS Risked 15 Lost -15

4-5 -33.3

BR 533