Originally posted by suicidekings
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Looks like you're just betting on name brand pitchers and not going by anything else.Comment -
Not typically my thing. I just liked them all tonight. But even if you take the names away, you wouldn't expect those five pitching lines to yield a 1-4 record. But wtv. Another day...Originally posted by CanuckGComment -
Really dont like 2marros card at all. Would like to play twinks again but every time i watch Pavano pitch i think i could jack one off that guy. lol, seriously though the value prob there cept i think Pavano sucks even more in the day and curious to see if cle can get another much needed W, their schedule up to the break is brutal so they really need this 1.Comment -
most of those games had low totals and its just an example of how the market overvalues starting pitchingOriginally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Could see the Cubbies playing a bit better tomorrow...Comment -
Originally posted by CanuckG
Really want to play them but i figured that is a sign of how bad the card is to me.
Im just not the guy who tries to bet teams when they sliding like this, i gotta keep telling myself this so i dont do it.Comment -
I think if you played the Cubs and Twins tomorrow early, at worst you'd go 1-1.Originally posted by CanuckGComment -
the best bet in this game is the underOriginally posted by CanuckGComment -
When you lay a decent amount of juice with an ace, two things often happen:Originally posted by suicidekings
1) No run support
2) Opposing pitcher steps up and pitches above his head
If both occur, your bet is in trouble. I try to avoid these games if possible, unless I see some other angle.Comment -
Originally posted by CanuckGOriginally posted by No coincidences
Looking at Pittsburgh as well, though I don't like taking them as a fave.
Will probably be on Scrubs, Twins, BoSox and Royals for sure. May consider the Nats again as well. We'll see.Comment -
Pads look kind of nice, too.
Moseley's been one of the more underrated starters in baseball so far. Too bad they don't hit for him.Comment -
twins look good, nationals look to be the clear play of the dayComment -
Good to see proven vets like Canuck, SK, Dan, vyom, lunch and others posting in this thread. Thanks for the help and thoughts, fellas! Stop by any time!Comment -
Unders for the two early games as well? Possibly -- both are sitting at plus money right now, but if you look at the stats, they might be plays.Comment -
pavano ( twins) pitched 9 innings last game....he pitched 8 innings before that....both with high pitch count. Not sure if he has arm to go deep tomorrow.Comment -
twins total doesn't look too good, cubs/reds under looks marginal because the total is a little high(for the current season), i'd wait and see how the betting action comes in first. might be better to just passOriginally posted by No coincidences
there is no correlation between high pitch count in previous outings and subsequent profitable lines. there is actually a positive expectation correlation for extreme high pitch counts, 125+ but the sample size is small and it seems unlikely to me that a majority of the market is using pitch counts to sway what side they take so i wouldn't trust itpavano ( twins) pitched 9 innings last game....he pitched 8 innings before that....both with high pitch count. Not sure if he has arm to go deep tomorrow.Comment -
i also think we're at a point right now where there is no value betting giants unders. in normal circumstances that game tomorrow would be prime but not based on where the market is trending recentlyComment -
majority of the market dont care about pitch count...but its an important factor. Pavano pitched more than 8 innings in past two games which is not normal for him. He will be hit tomorrow.Originally posted by clairvoyanceComment -
ok so lets assume that the books have never considered this when making a line(ludicrous) and that you're right that he'll be hit tomorrow. what does that translate to in % chance the indians have to win? is it 65%? is it 53%? whats YOUR fair line? hint: the answer isn't "if pavano is crap the indians will win and that makes them a good bet"Originally posted by vyomguyComment -
how can it be an important factor when there's no evidence to support the idea that previous high pitch count makes the other side a good bet?Comment -
No discussion. Let's have some winners todayComment -
good luck today nocoComment -
MIN +145 (1U)
MIN under 9 (1U)
CHC +127 (1U)
CHC under 9 (1U)
WAS +164 (1U)
WAS over 7.5 (1U)
That's what I have so far.Comment -
Unders at plus money often times represent the best value, especially in this environment. It will probably correct itself but the totals market has been incredibly soft thus far, imo.Originally posted by No coincidences
GL on your plays.Comment -
cappinpiks is on fire 44-4 runComment -
Lets get some cubbie money today, NC!Comment -
Originally posted by JamesBrown
You know I'll be cursing them out if they lose like usual.Comment -
tempted to play the cubbiesComment -
Cleveland just got pounded on 5dimesComment -
Adding a unit to the Scrubs and the under 9.Originally posted by No coincidences
Yep, Minny's losing steam late.Comment -
Good luck today NC! Glad you're getting the run going again. Not many people on here really put in as much effort as you to win money.
Cubs getting hit now. Like it.Comment -
Good Luck Guys..Comment -
You too Canuck.Originally posted by CanuckG
Cubbies for you? Yea? Nay? Anything else?Comment -
Just played Under 9 for the game.Comment -
cubs look good...but i took under....hope both of them come through for u no coin.Comment
