Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

can i get really lucky and have this dback game land on 9?

[Dexter]

Fuckin Madson.... WTF!?

with braun and fielder up i thought this was gonna end a push. k of braun was the game...

[Love The Action]

Congrat Dex...great win!

[Dexter]

Sunday 9/11:

(1u) under redsox 7
(1u) under whitesox 8.5

[JBT]

Whew... congrats Great win!

[azn624]

Gotta say A3's are the best . Has this been backtracked or have you only done them for a few years?

[Dexter]

Gotta say A3's are the best . Has this been backtracked or have you only done them for a few years?

last year it was around 70% as well. in 2008 and 2009 i didnt factor in the bullpens and i didnt make sure the last 3 starts were in the last 30days. once i made those tweaks, it took off last year. im definitely upping A3 next year and reducing A1 and A2 down to 3-5u....as long as pitchers keep dominating, A3 should do well.

i think its impossible to backtest. you would need to know a pitchers whip last 3 starts (within 30 days) before each start. then the bullpen ranking that day as well. maybe there is a database that can gather that data, but i doubt it...

[Luv2Play2]

damn i missed this

(3u) under tigers 9 (A4-Layne)

and the late 2.. but i got lucky not seeing the change in the arz game..
as always ty dex..

[Dexter]

(3u) under rangers 9.5 (A4-Hoye)

[Dexter]

Week 23: 18-9 (+27.1u)

A1: 2-2 (+0u)
A2: 0-0
A3: 1-0
A4: 6-4
Reynolds: 1-1
Welke: 2-0
Hoye: 1-1
Layne: 1-0
Darling: 1-1
Miller: 0-1
___________________________
YTD: 277-239 (+124.85u)

A1: 16-14 (+.4u)
A2: 2-6
A3: 24-11
A4: 97-82
Reynolds: 13-15
Welke: 17-11
Hoye: 14-11
Layne: 14-12
Darling: 17-12
Joyce: 6-7 (Out for Year)
Miller: 16-14

Week 24: 6-12 (-5.8u)

A1: 1-1 (+2.4u)
A2: 0-0
A3: 1-0
A4: 3-6
Reynolds: 0-1
Welke: 1-0
Hoye: 1-1
Layne: 1-1
Darling: 0-1
Miller: 0-2
________________________
YTD: 283-251 (+119.05u)

A1: 17-15 (+2.8u)
A2: 2-6
A3: 25-11
A4: 100-88
Reynolds: 13-16
Welke: 18-11
Hoye: 15-12
Layne: 15-13
Darling: 17-13
Joyce: 6-7 (Out for Year)
Miller: 16-16

[bhunter]

No A4's on 7PM games

[azn624]

Looks like Tim Welke in Phillies game (This is an A4)

[Dexter]

Monday 9/12:

(3u) over phillies 7.5 (A4-Welke)

[Dexter]

Tuesday 9/13:

(3u) over phillies 7.5 (A4-Reynolds)
(8u) dbacks -120 (A1)

[Bs1194]

I like em. Good luck tonight guys

[Luv2Play2]

gl dexter....

[Dexter]

not many weeks left in the MLB season. i suspect we will have plenty of A3's during the playoffs with elite pitchers on the bump. hopefully a few A4 umps are in the playoffs - although those plays have not been great in the 2nd half. i hope they can at least finish 55%.

[JBT]

How are the A3's during the playoffs?

[remypom]

(8u) dbacks -120 (A1)

sorry im new. wat does A1 mean? and dbacks -120, is that the moenyline for diamond backs?

[ShogunRua]

(8u) dbacks -120 (A1)

sorry im new. wat does A1 mean? and dbacks -120, is that the moenyline for diamond backs?

You can find out what a1 - a4 means on page 1 of the thread...and yes -120 is the ML that he got last night or whatever. It's probably closer to -140 or so now.

[rtx1125]

(8u) dbacks -120 (A1)

sorry im new. wat does A1 mean? and dbacks -120, is that the moenyline for diamond backs?

A1_play any pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. the pitcher with the 1.00 or less whip must have the better ranked bullpen era behind him. i will move some plays to the runline when i dont feel comfortable laying heavy odds.

DBacks -120 is the moneyline. If he was betting on the runline he would have put it like this DBacks -1.5

[Dexter]

How are the A3's during the playoffs?

werent that many last year....i dont recall.

[Dexter]

You can find out what a1 - a4 means on page 1 of the thread...and yes -120 is the ML that he got last night or whatever. It's probably closer to -140 or so now.

A4 is on page 7 - post 220

[ram1502]

Glad to see you're still tearin it up dex. GL the rest of the season!

[Dexter]

Glad to see you're still tearin it up dex. GL the rest of the season!

is this the same ram from the old days? new avatar has me not so sure....

[Dexter]

Wednesday 9/14:

(3u) under braves 8 (A4-Layne)
(8u) under dodgers 6 (A3)

[ShogunRua]

A4 is on page 7 - post 220

Oh...my bad.

[Bs1194]

Hell yea dex. Great night

[Dexter]

hey mike......we were bad luck watching that together....bang

[ram1502]

is this the same ram from the old days? new avatar has me not so sure....

It's me...in the flesh! Great night!

[JBT]

If we were unlucky with the Phillies, then we got fuckin lucky with the D'backs! Hell yeah

Thanks man!

[Dexter]

If we were unlucky with the Phillies, then we got fuckin lucky with the D'backs! Hell yeah

Thanks man!

i will take a 1-1 +5u night every day.....fuk winning %'s....they are for touts and attention whores...haha

[Dexter]

(3u) under rays 9 (A4-Miller)

[Luv2Play2]

mines still holding & 8' ovr -120.. you thinking it may still get to 9 ? thanks and gl always

[Dexter]

mines still holding & 8' ovr -120.. you thinking it may still get to 9 ? thanks and gl always

the rays? i see some online books already moved to 9....definitely wait it out. not going down to 8.