chilidog's top capper tails/fades

[phillybadboy]

there's four cappers in MLB that u can tail blindly

[chilidog]

there's four cappers in MLB that u can tail blindly

I have a list of about 30 that I track, then go from there, depending on how they've done over the past 7 days, also taking into consideration if they've had a really lucky/bad luck day (ie. going 8-0 or 0-8 in one day). If a capper has one of those days and it pushes them into the range where I would tail/fade them, then I don't include them for that day. I'm only going after the cappers that are consistently either in a hot streak or really bad cold streak.

I guess only time will tail if works or not, but it has so far for the mlb season.

[cro]

seems like its working good
keep it up

[chilidog]

Not looking as good today!

[chilidog]

Adding:

MLB [5926] NO - SEA/TEX SCORE 1ST INNIN +110 26.00 USD / 28.00 USD

[chilidog]

Well, had I left that 'score in 1st inning' alone, I would've been up another $20 yesterday, instead I lost almost $40. Lesson learned No more systems - just flat betting. I went 6-7 yesterday because of the system. Had I not bet it, I would've gone 6-4.

Oh well, today's another day. The system is proving itself, had I just stuck to it. It'll take a few days to recover yesterday's losses, but no biggie. I got time

[chilidog]

Okay, for today, looks like I will be following 5 cappers, and fading 3. 2 of the cappers are up almost $1k each for the week. I do not take into consideration how many units they bet on each game; I only take their pick, and track it as a flat bet with a $100 unit, including any juice.

I know that interleague starts today, so hopefully that won't affect the capper's ability to pick winners/losers. The World Cup starts today as well, so I'm also going to start tracking some soccer cappers. Soccer is pretty huge in Costa Rica, so I'd like to get in on some of the action. Plus, it's usually all that's on tv, on the 5 sports channels that we have. Occasionally, some American sports come on TV, but usually just the nationally televised games. I'll have most of the World Cup games on TV here, so I guess something is better than nothing.

[chilidog]

Wow, in regards to tracking soccer handicappers, looks like I'm going to have my work cut out for me. I have 25 cappers loaded into excel, ready to start tracking their plays. I won't be making any bets on soccer from these picks until I have at least 3 days worth of stats for each capper.

[chilidog]

First bet of the day, Friday, June 11:

MLB [953] TOTAL o10½-115 (CWS vrs CUB) 8.94 SBR / 7.77 SBR

I will have more plays later today, but the games don't start until 7pm est, so that gives the cappers time to release their picks.

[chilidog]

I will be posting my bets for tonight in about an hour or so, but as now, it's looking like cardinals, rangers, redsox, padres, dodgers, rockies, and giants. It could change; I'm still waiting on a few cappers. It's always a plus winning a day game; it makes the night games that much more exciting. I was a little disappointed last night after bombing with the 'runs in 1st inning' that I was tracking, but I woke up today treating it as a new day, and have gone back to my usual flat-betting routine.

I know that many people on here like to bet 'to win', but I prefer to bet 'to risk', simply to control my bankroll when I get a pick that is something like -230. I will re-evaluate this in about a month (I keep stats of everything I'm doing), and see if I made/lost money by betting 'to risk' vs 'to 'win'. Time will tell. GL for tonight!

[chilidog]

Adding:

MLB [951] STL -153 9.25 SBR / 6.05 SBR

MLB [966] BOS -144 9.25 SBR / 6.42 SBR

MLB [971] TEX -125 9.25 SBR / 7.40 SBR

MLB [974] COL -185 9.25 SBR / 5.00 SBR game cancelled

MLB [976] SDG -144 9.25 SBR / 6.42 SBR

MLB [978] LOS -172 9.25 SBR / 5.38 SBR

MLB [980] SFO -181 9.25 SBR / 5.11 SBR

[chilidog]

Adding:

MLB [962] DET -1½-130 8.94 SBR / 6.88 SBR

[MR PROFIT]

gl on ur Detroit & Texas plays..

[chilidog]

Sweet, went 6-2 yesterday, and almost a $20 profit. Halfway there to earning back the stupid $40 loss the day before yesterday. I guess interleague play is affecting some capper's abilities, because it looks like I'm going to be tailing 3 cappers, and fading 2.

Since the 1st game for today of the world cup just started, I'm going to now track yesterday's/today's picks on soccer, and see how the cappers are doing. I don't plan on betting until at least Monday - I'll see how it's going.

[chilidog]

BTW, since the sbr sportsbook doesn't let you bet props, here's an accurate look at how I did for the past week. On June 5, I had a 67.47 point balance in sbr. As of this morning, June 12, my point balance is now 211.04

[chilidog]

1st play for Saturday, June 12:

MLB [903] HOU +1½+105 10.55 SBR / 11.08 SBR

[phillybadboy]

take a look at Paulzcappin and Cappinpicks

[chilidog]

I can't find a thread for either of them where they consistently list their plays, and neither of them use a spreadsheet, so that's too much work for me to track how they're doing. I'm tracking about 30 mlb cappers currently, and another 30 soccer cappers currently, so that's enough work as is.

[phillybadboy]

they do new threads daily, they've been money

[chilidog]

Adding:

MLB [906] TOTAL u8½-110 (CWS vrs CUB) 10.55 SBR / 9.59 SBR

MLB [907] TOTAL o10-115 (PHI vrs BOS) 10.55 SBR / 9.17 SBR

[chilidog]

take a look at Paulzcappin and Cappinpicks

Okay, I just tracked cappinpicks for the past 7 days, and he's actually down -$1. I only track cappers by flat-betting $100 a pick, including juice, and I don't take into consideration how many units they put on any given pick. So far, this has been working for me. So, under the rules that I set for this, he's not eligible. He's actually 3-3 for the week - 50% win ratio.

And as for pauulzcappin, he only made a few picks the past 7 days - his threads just weren't definitive enough for me to add him to the list. His 'picks' were more like 'what do you guys think about this?'.

But I appreciate the suggestions. If you have any others, or if anybody else does, I'll gladly research them and add them to the spreadsheet. I have added cappinpicks into the spreadsheet, so as long as he keeps posting picks, I'll keep tracking him, and the day he hits the criteria to be included, I'll bet his picks

[phillybadboy]

okay cool

[chilidog]

Adding:

MLB [909] WAS +102 10.55 SBR / 10.76 SBR
MLB [913] PIT +165 10.55 SBR / 17.41 SBR
MLB [916] TOTAL u8½-110 (FLA vrs TAM) 10.55 SBR / 9.59 SBR
MLB [921] KAN +156 10.55 SBR / 16.46 SBR
MLB [924] TOTAL u9-115 (TOR vrs COL) 10.55 SBR / 9.17 SBR
MLB [925] SEA -129 10.55 SBR / 8.18 SBR

[phillybadboy]

Cappinpicks 2 and 0 today, i put 25% of my roll on his orioles under super easy win

[chilidog]

Ouch. horrible day yesterday. 3-6. Just ouch. Oh well. it happens. Better luck today, I hope!

[chilidog]

Here's to a better day today! My plays for Sunday, June 13:

NBA [709] LA LAKERS +2½-110 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

NBA [709] TOTAL o187½-110 (LA LAKERS vrs BOSTON) 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [952] TOTAL u8½-110 (STL vrs ARI) 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [954] TOTAL u8EV (WAS vrs CLE) 8.68 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [956] NYY -1½-165 14.32 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [958] DET -200 17.36 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [960] CIN -110 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [962] BOS -110 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [963] NYM -145 12.59 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [968] TOTAL u8½-110 (ATL vrs MIN) 9.55 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [972] CUB -153 13.28 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [978] SDG -120 10.42 SBR / 8.68 SBR

MLB [980] LOS -118 10.24 SBR / 8.68 SBR

[chilidog]

heh, I should be fading myself after this past 2 days

[chilidog]

Monday, June 14:

MLB [902] STL -1½-140 [L FRENCH -L/WAINWRIGHT -R] 9.00 SBR / 6.43 SBR

MLB [903] TOTAL o6½-125 (TOR vrs SDG) [S MARCUM -R/J GARLAND -R] 8.04 SBR / 6.43 SBR

MLB [904] SDG -110 [S MARCUM -R/J GARLAND -R] 7.07 SBR / 6.43 SBR

MLB [906] LAA -155 [R WOLF -L/J SAUNDERS -L] 9.97 SBR / 6.43 SBR

[phillybadboy]

cappinpicks 6-0 on guaranteed winners

[chilidog]

2-2 yesterday. I'll update units when I'm done updating my capper stats

[chilidog]

Tuesday, June 15:

SOC [6055] BRAZIL DRAW +800 10.00 SBR / 80.00 SBR

[chilidog]

After a few losing days, I studied the track record of each capper, and I decided to only follow the top 3 cappers for each day. Previously, I would be tailing as many as 6-8 cappers, cancelling out any opposing plays, and playing, which resulted in playing a lot of action. Now I will have fewer plays, unless the top 3 cappers daily are playing a full card, then, so will I.

For instance, this morning I had 8 cappers that matched my criteria of who I would tail, since all 8 were up at least $500 for the previous 7 days, betting $100/play, including juice. I am only taking the top 3 of these 8, so hopefully this will turn around my slight losing streak.

[chilidog]

Adding:

NBA [712] LA LAKERS -6½-110 7.89 SBR / 7.17 SBR

MLB [953] CWS -129 [F GARCIA -R/B LINCOLN -R] 9.25 SBR / 7.17 SBR

MLB [962] FLA -159 [C WILSON -L/J JOHNSON -R] 11.40 SBR / 7.17 SBR

MLB [963] TAM -140 [D PRICE -L/K KAWAKAMI -R] 10.04 SBR / 7.17 SBR

MLB [966] BOS -205 [I KENNEDY -R/C BUCHHOLZ -R] 14.70 SBR / 7.17 SBR

MLB [967] OAK +103 [T CAHILL -R/C ZAMBRANO -R] 7.17 SBR / 7.39 SBR

MLB [969] HOU +105 [F PAULINO -R/K DAVIES -R] 7.17 SBR / 7.53 SBR

MLB [975] TOR -104 [B CECIL -L/M LATOS -R] 7.46 SBR / 7.17 SBR

[chilidog]

Much much better yesterday

I went 6-2 on my capper picks, but since I bet Brazil to draw (as a personal pick), I will still include that as well, so yesterday's total is 6-3. I do have an idea how to fine-tune this even better, but for now, I'm feeling good about it

[valsen]

Good work yesterday!

any picks for tonight?