LB thread for MLB plays 2010

**killersweet** · 06-07-10, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Phillies RL +125 (2x)

like that

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I think this is a good play, personally.

LeBlanc is not good on the road. Or at least, he usually isn't.

- I guess we are gonna see a perfect game from him tonight.

**lyon804** · 06-07-10, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Thanks pal- wtf is going on in your avatar?

You like it? It is a binomial distribution chart. I am working on building models for next season's NBA and coming across some info in helping me do that I was inspired by the photo. Basically, in a nutshell LB I am taking the information you and I have and writing paramaters in a program to easily identify large numbers of +EV opportunities so that we will be able to turn more action over larger numbers next year. To clarify.. My goal is to take certain opportunities you and I know instinctively and put it into a language and then with large data I can pull those opportunties to the surface at the blink of an eye..

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

You like it? It is a binomial distribution chart. I am working on building models for next season's NBA and coming across some info in helping me do that I was inspired by the photo. Basically, in a nutshell LB I am taking the information you and I have and writing paramaters in a program to easily identify large numbers of +EV opportunities so that we will be able to turn more action over larger numbers next year. To clarify.. My goal is to take certain opportunities you and I know instinctively and put it into a language and then with large data I can pull those opportunties to the surface at the blink of an eye..

Sounds like a great idea. PM me.

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

You like it? It is a binomial distribution chart. I am working on building models for next season's NBA and coming across some info in helping me do that I was inspired by the photo. Basically, in a nutshell LB I am taking the information you and I have and writing paramaters in a program to easily identify large numbers of +EV opportunities so that we will be able to turn more action over larger numbers next year. To clarify.. My goal is to take certain opportunities you and I know instinctively and put it into a language and then with large data I can pull those opportunties to the surface at the blink of an eye..

**lyon804** · 06-07-10, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Sounds like a great idea. PM me.

I will do. Been meaning to catch up with you soon. I have to go home now but I really would love to get some ideas from you. I think we and other's here that have shown a strong track record can take what we know to develop models to hit long term +EV opportunities. Bottomline, we can do that both already but we are very limited with are numbers. My goal is to raise the bar and push more numbers and hold percentages the same. You had a very good NBA season for example but imagine if you would have done the same #'s over 800 plays or even a 1000 plays. Not trying to mess with anything to throw us off but trying to create more opinions and data mine more ideas to have more numbers working for us.

Basically, in many ways we are already doing this manually. I am not trying to reinvent the wheel so to speak. I am just attempting to get a handle on things that we know that we can articulate to a system that will cut down on time and create more numbers. Besides, it's just another challenge for me to do and I love challenges. I have been doing alot of reading and research and all the pro's are running way more numbers. Maybe not more than you but certainly more than me. My % is good but I need more opinions and I believe with buliding a data base and articulating what I want with data mining I can produce more numbers of more sports... The goal is big, but it starts small. At first I want to do it with NBA and get it refined to be a top running machine. After than I want to branch out into other sports at least 2 linear sports such as NBA,MLB to run around the clock annually so to speak.

Something I like is this. 2,000 wagers at 55% at just 2% BR per bet you will double your BR. I know that doesn't mean much to some people here but it does if you have money. The thing is getting to 55% over large numbers is the hard part and all the pros have databases to do it. The sky's the limit and you are only limited to your own imagination.

A little longer winded than expected but that's just me. I am a little passionate. I really am interested in any input you have and will PM you. My mind is a little fried at the moment because all I am studying is numbers and kind of have got my eye of handicapping at the moment. Basically, just be thinking of many paramaters you know instinctively that has made you successfuly over the years. We can share those and identify more of those situations quicker if we have a database.

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 06:35 PM

**anthonyc023** · 06-07-10, 06:37 PM

LB Could u get me unbanned from nba handicapping please im still banned from when we had our issue

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 06:38 PM

2-0 giants. Zito with 2 rbi.

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by anthonyc023

LB Could u get me unbanned from nba handicapping please im still banned from when we had our issue

I didnt get you banned. I have no control over that stuff. You need to pm a moderator. I can vouch for you if you want.

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 06:39 PM

Zito?

Come on, Cueto.

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 06:43 PM

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be one of those days for the Phillies.

**anthonyc023** · 06-07-10, 06:45 PM

ya please do that for me bro i didnt mean no harm

**Dexter** · 06-07-10, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

You like it? It is a binomial distribution chart. I am working on building models for next season's NBA and coming across some info in helping me do that I was inspired by the photo. Basically, in a nutshell LB I am taking the information you and I have and writing paramaters in a program to easily identify large numbers of +EV opportunities so that we will be able to turn more action over larger numbers next year. To clarify.. My goal is to take certain opportunities you and I know instinctively and put it into a language and then with large data I can pull those opportunties to the surface at the blink of an eye..

quant geek!

**Goat Milk** · 06-07-10, 07:41 PM

ay lyon with this newly acquired knowledge you have and my ultimate nba knowledge and lbs ultimate line movement reading (which works better during the reg season) and pauly pokers fix factor, games that we all agree on will be 85% likely winners

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 08:36 PM

Braves/Dbacks over 8.5 (1x)-115

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Braves/Dbacks over 8.5 (1x)-115

You saw the same line movement I did.

Too bad I'm not playing totals anymore.

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 09:01 PM

Angels ML +122 (1x)

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 09:08 PM

Cards ML +134 (1x)

**paco** · 06-07-10, 09:11 PM

Lb, im on the Dbacks over also, goodluck.

**paco** · 06-07-10, 09:19 PM

Nice hit on Giants also pal. I liked em also, but just decided to add on to Redsox RL. Worked out nice for us both. Lets finish off this Mariners game now!

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by paco

Nice hit on Giants also pal. I liked em also, but just decided to add on to Redsox RL. Worked out nice for us both. Lets finish off this Mariners game now!

Thanks pal. Im gonna probably ending up breaking even tonight.

**paco** · 06-07-10, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by paco

Nice hit on Giants also pal. I liked em also, but just decided to add on to Redsox RL. Worked out nice for us both. Lets finish off this Mariners game now!

Cash them M's.

**MidgetTossers** · 06-07-10, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

going big on texas today...big for me anyways...5x...good luck with your plays tonight pal

.....

...this one hurt big time

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

.....

...this one hurt big time

Yeah, me too. Given Cliff Lee's struggles in Arlington, I sure didn't see this coming -- no matter how well he's pitched so far this season.

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by paco

Cash them M's.

And the under for me

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 09:51 PM

Doenst matter what Cliff Lee did before there. The guy is a stud. How many games of those were pitched with the Mariners explosive offence?

**MidgetTossers** · 06-07-10, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Doenst matter what Cliff Lee did before there. The guy is a stud. How many games of those were pitched with the Mariners explosive offence?

he is a stud but i thought the rangers offense could get to him...boy was i wrong and am paying for it dearly

**No coincidences** · 06-07-10, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Doenst matter what Cliff Lee did before there. The guy is a stud. How many games of those were pitched with the Mariners explosive offence?

If you had told me before the game the M's would score 4 runs, I would have taken it as a Texas backer.

**paco** · 06-07-10, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Doenst matter what Cliff Lee did before there. The guy is a stud. How many games of those were pitched with the Mariners explosive offence?

**MidgetTossers** · 06-07-10, 10:04 PM

trust me when i say that the next time lee pitches i will back him and he will lose

**lakerboy** · 06-07-10, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you had told me before the game the M's would score 4 runs, I would have taken it as a Texas backer.

So you would have taken the chance the Rangers would get 5 runs on Lee just cause of some past results which were meaningless tonight.

**SRBI** · 06-07-10, 10:06 PM

Nice going so far LB

**MidgetTossers** · 06-07-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

So you would have taken the chance the Rangers would get 5 runs on Lee just cause of some past results which were meaningless tonight.

i thought the rangers could get 4 off of lee and then won it off there bullpen if need be....who cares now...its over and a bad call...im moving on

**paco** · 06-07-10, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by paco

Lb, im on the Dbacks over also, goodluck.