LB thread for MLB plays 2010

paco · 10-12-10, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Texas has the better offense as well.

Then go put ur points on this special.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/723629-paco-special-rangers-rays-do-die-game.html#post6825037

TylerDurden · 10-12-10, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Rangers TT over 3 is juiced while Rays tt under 3.5 is juiced at pinny.

Meaning what exactly LB? Here's what I make of this, your take would be appreciated as always:

the books are hesitant to move Rays TT to down to 3 indicating over 3.5 is the play? Same could be made for Tex under 3, but not really a play b/c it's on a solid number rather than a half number?

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by TylerDurden

Meaning what exactly LB? Here's what I make of this, your take would be appreciated as always:

the books are hesitant to move Rays TT to down to 3 indicating over 3.5 is the play? Same could be made for Tex under 3, but not really a play b/c it's on a solid number rather than a half number?

It means Rangers will score 4 at least and TB will not score more than 3.

paco · 10-12-10, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

It means Rangers will score 4 at least and TB will not score more than 3.

So ur saying Rangers win?

TylerDurden · 10-12-10, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

It means Rangers will score 4 at least and TB will not score more than 3.

Really? I'm so lost now...

So in terms of TT the play is following the juice or fading it (b/c they are reluctant to just move the line)?

Bo$$ Bet$ · 10-12-10, 01:28 AM

First off giants

......now

PAYTON20 · 10-12-10, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

It means Rangers will score 4 at least and TB will not score more than 3.

Originally posted by paco

So ur saying Rangers win?

Rangers ML? Rangers TT over?

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by paco

So ur saying Rangers win?

No but thats what the books feel.

Originally posted by TylerDurden

Really? I'm so lost now...

So in terms of TT the play is following the juice or fading it (b/c they are reluctant to just move the line)?

YOu follow the juice if it stays strong and doesnt get past the -128 mark without moving the line up to the next hook level. THis is a fairly typical pinny line on the playoff games so far. THe fact that Texas +1.5 is -200 or above at most shops tells you the rays wont win by more than 1 or lose su.

ROFLcopter · 10-12-10, 01:30 AM

Damn.. not what I wanted to hear. I have Rays as a last leg of a 3 teamer. I guess the smartest thing for me to do is take Texas to ensure myself a profit.

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by ROFLcopter

Damn.. not what I wanted to hear. I have Rays as a last leg of a 3 teamer. I guess the smartest thing for me to do is take Texas to ensure myself a profit.

Copter bro you know how we cashed those +1.5 high juices on the ML late in the year.

ROFLcopter · 10-12-10, 01:33 AM

That's true LB. I see 67% on Tampa RL but line is holding strong so far

kmarinouofm · 10-12-10, 01:41 AM

i have picked the wrong times to go against the rays.. i still feel like they are the weaker team tomorrow..

I think Playing in Tampa is exactly what the Rangers need. For some odd reason they have been able to get it done in this stadium..

PAYTON20 · 10-12-10, 01:41 AM

So LB, the Rangers wouldn't qualify for a bet according to your system like the Giants did?

troutsky · 10-12-10, 01:43 AM

wahwooey cash the ray rays

FLO31 · 10-12-10, 01:45 AM

i'm leaning rangers and cliff lee big all the way.. i'm waiting for someone to talk me out of it lol...

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by PAYTON20

So LB, the Rangers wouldn't qualify for a bet according to your system like the Giants did?

Not a 10x play in an elimination game on the road. I do think the Rangers qualify in my system as a FF +0.5 play for sure.

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:48 AM

I personally think the Rays turned the corner but i hate going against all the things that help me win. One of those things is that you dont fade a team that is -225 on +1,5 and especially with Lee. It is pretty obvious linemakers believe Price is gassed. They have made that abundantly clear with the line.

PAYTON20 · 10-12-10, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not a 10x play in an elimination game on the road. I do think the Rangers qualify in my system as a FF +0.5 play for sure.

Haha nah I wasn't saying 10x. I was wondering if they'd qualify for let's say a 1-3 unit play. I've already got 2x pending on the Rangers in a parlay, so I might not even bet the game. I was just curious how you decide or determine the play and unit size. I'll be checking in tomorrow. Thanks once again for Giants tonight and on the series

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by PAYTON20

Haha nah I wasn't saying 10x. I was wondering if they'd qualify for let's say a 1-3 unit play. I've already got 2x pending on the Rangers in a parlay, so I might not even bet the game. I was just curious how you decide or determine the play and unit size. I'll be checking in tomorrow. Thanks once again for Giants tonight and on the series

TO me this game is a 1-2 unit game. There is hardly any edge here.

PAYTON20 · 10-12-10, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I personally think the Rays turned the corner but i hate going against all the things that help me win. One of those things is that you dont fade a team that is -225 on +1,5 and especially with Lee. It is pretty obvious linemakers believe Price is gassed. They have made that abundantly clear with the line.

Cliff Lee has proven he's a big game performer. If he can shut out the Yankees in the World Series in Yankee Stadium- what's stopping him from doing the same to any other team in any other stadium. The Rangers are a good fastball hitting team and jumped all over Price in Game 1. Even though it's tough to see a repeat of that, I think all the Rangers need is 3 runs to win this game. It's pretty tough to hold that offense under that number

lakerboy · 10-12-10, 02:02 AM

The other thing that is non related to this game but alwys helps the hated teams is that the yanks get home field with texas. YOu know somehow that could occur just so the yanks are set up nicely.

sneakerhead · 10-12-10, 02:26 AM

I found something interesting on 5dimes, wanted to share here, what do you make of this LB?

TEX wins by exactly 1 run +575
TAM wins by exactly 1 run +382

TEX wins by exactly 2 run +694
TAM wins by exactly 2 run +708

TEX wins by exactly 3 run +872
TAM wins by exactly 3 run +950

TEX wins by exactly 4 run +1261
TAM wins by exactly 4 run +1311

TEX wins by exactly 5 run +1568
TAM wins by exactly 5 run +1668

TEX wins by exactly 6 run +2468
TAM wins by exactly 6 run +2468

Rays are getting better odds than Rangers by 1 run win but Rangers are getting better odds in a 2-6 run win.

TylerDurden · 10-12-10, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

YOu follow the juice if it stays strong and doesnt get past the -128 mark without moving the line up to the next hook level. THis is a fairly typical pinny line on the playoff games so far. THe fact that Texas +1.5 is -200 or above at most shops tells you the rays wont win by more than 1 or lose su.

Originally posted by lakerboy

Copter bro you know how we cashed those +1.5 high juices on the ML late in the year.

I see what you mean by the game being within one run, I just took it to mean that the Rays win a 4-3 type game. Rays would score 4 (thus they juice the under 3.5 instead of moving it down to 4). But then again I guess your right, you get the value if you take the Rangers in a basically even game, especially with a solid pitcher like Lee on the bump....which long-run is probably alot more profitable than taking the Rays and laying juice.

Thanks for the help bud, I'm fairly new to this and always down to learn a thing or two.

Tommy_de1st · 10-12-10, 02:43 AM

Another monster night. Im speechless

TylerDurden · 10-12-10, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

Another monster night. Im speechless

Damn Tommy who's the babe?...I'm speechless!

JR007 · 10-12-10, 03:39 AM

Thanks LB, for the Giants !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tommy_de1st · 10-12-10, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by TylerDurden

Damn Tommy who's the babe?...I'm speechless!

Tyler, i found her in one of Dad's thread, check yourself http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ml#post6799519

Nelly · 10-12-10, 05:16 AM

best of luck laker boy

brucethebear · 10-12-10, 05:20 AM

Great day today LB!
Giants ML, Giants + under parlay, Giants series - All win!

Cheers, BtB

Carlito7 · 10-12-10, 08:46 AM

woehoee

, congrats lb!!

up over 100 units! great comeback,awesome

Dexter · 10-12-10, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Giants ML +127 (10x)

No other plays on this game.

great call - i was shocked this didnt get to a game 5, but at least i got my series bet on SF.

we finally agree on something tonight...

GiveMeaBJ · 10-12-10, 09:18 AM

Been a while but nice hit on the Giants last night LB. Great season you are having.

Originally posted by lakerboy

I personally think the Rays turned the corner but i hate going against all the things that help me win. One of those things is that you dont fade a team that is -225 on +1,5 and especially with Lee. It is pretty obvious linemakers believe Price is gassed. They have made that abundantly clear with the line.

I agree that the Rays turned the corner. I disagree though that the line was set like this because Price is gassed. I think the line was set like this because originally Cliff Lee wasn't getting any credit because ever since he had gotten traded to Texas he went 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA. Then he shuts down the Rays in Game 1 and we all have that "Oh yea, Cliff Lee is really good" moment. I'm sure lots of people backing Cliff Lee again after watching Game 1.

Originally posted by lakerboy

TO me this game is a 1-2 unit game. There is hardly any edge here.

Completely agree. I have my Rays to win series bet at -145 pending for 2 units. I think I just have to let it ride, I lean Rays tonight but I'm not crazy about anything in this game.

ROFLcopter · 10-12-10, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by sneakerhead

I found something interesting on 5dimes, wanted to share here, what do you make of this LB?

TEX wins by exactly 1 run +575
TAM wins by exactly 1 run +382

TEX wins by exactly 2 run +694
TAM wins by exactly 2 run +708

TEX wins by exactly 3 run +872
TAM wins by exactly 3 run +950

TEX wins by exactly 4 run +1261
TAM wins by exactly 4 run +1311

TEX wins by exactly 5 run +1568
TAM wins by exactly 5 run +1668

TEX wins by exactly 6 run +2468
TAM wins by exactly 6 run +2468

Rays are getting better odds than Rangers by 1 run win but Rangers are getting better odds in a 2-6 run win.

Very interesting prop. Would love to see what you think here LB. Based on the RL it looks to be a 1 run game

DMB40 · 10-12-10, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

The other thing that is non related to this game but alwys helps the hated teams is that the yanks get home field with texas. YOu know somehow that could occur just so the yanks are set up nicely.

Yankees are away regardless of who wins they were the wild card.

rb3b3 · 10-12-10, 10:21 AM

guys i need your help big time!!!!! dont hate me for this, but i live in ny, and i am a huge yankee fan!!! with that being said, i have seen cliff lee perform unreal in hugee playoffs games against the yankees!! i mean he is dominant in huge games against the yankees. in game 1 lee destroyed the rays!!!! now here we are in a huge game 5 with lee on the mound. i feel the betting gods are giving us free money here. this is a repeat of game 1. what has changed other then momentum which lee will kill in a huge game. can someone please tell me where i am wrong? i think lee will dominate again like he always does in huge games!!! plus the rays are the worst hitting team in the playoffs.Texas has a great lineup that can smoke any pitcher. thats my theory at least. so again someone please tell me why the rays are favoites in this game other then home field advantage???i dont understand this!! usually when i like a game this much you fade me and make a ton of money!!!!!!!!!!!