LB thread for MLB plays 2010

[No coincidences]

100% correct. This clown has never pitched a playoff game before and we got a thread in this section dedicated to him. Thats pure fade material. Also the game is at that weird 5:05 PM time slot that will allow it to start in the evening but end in the dark. All the philly folks will be piss drunk and booing this fukker if he allows a few early runs. Im telling you guys the Reds ML (small)and RL (double the small) are the plays. On top of that why is the total only 7 if the reds are throwing volquez out there? volquez is gold as a dog pitcher. Just think twice before you bet on the phils. They should win the game but in sports you dont make money by taking -200 ML's.

I like it in theory, but Volquez is as unpredictable as they come.

If you're going to play this, play it small. Because either Cincy somehow prevails in a low-scoring game, or gets absolutely bombed.

[TylerDurden]

Tyler i have taken -400 in the past but its not worth it. Obviously it depends on the sit. Reds are a little bit over 500 on the road this year hence they are not +190 this game. Also i look at certain books and one i like is not giving good odds on reds ML compared to others and that has worked in the past for me.

Thanks that seems like wise move. I love the logic you bring to sportsbetting as I think removing emotion and personal bias is a difficult thing to do, so props for that.

I know your a Pinny-guy (as they are undoubtedly the sharpest offshore book) but I only see Betjam and BoDog at +185, am I correct in BetJam being "one of those books" as they typically have a large recreational betting base?

[No coincidences]

Thanks that seems like wise move. I love the logic you bring to sportsbetting as I think removing emotion and personal bias is a difficult thing to do, so props for that.

I know your a Pinny-guy (as they are undoubtedly the sharpest offshore book) but I only see Betjam and BoDog at +185, am I correct in BetJam being "one of those books" as they typically have a large recreational betting base?

Bodog's lines are custom-fit for square bettors.

[TylerDurden]

Bodog's lines are custom-fit for square bettors.

Yeah I noticed they're juicing Philly like -225 haha I just wasn't sure how much stock LB put into Bodog as he was talking about Cincy being undervalued, so I'm wondering if he meant BetJam or Bodog?

[Raynor21]

For what it's worth, Bookmaker has Cincy at +193

[Bo$$ Bet$]

Very interesting stuff LB, NoCoin, and Tyler (one of my all time favorite movies)

[jcubs55]

Good luck with your plays LB, I am on the Twins (Game 1, Series, AL Pennant, World Series) and Giants (series) myself.

[memo99]

what does everyone think about this prop: how many pitches will c.c. sabathia throw under 105 pays -104 i think he leaves in the 5th or 6th inning after giving up 5 runs with around 80-85 pitches

[Totolover1409]

Bol:d

[memo99]

i have to disagree with your reds pick for game 1 lb i don't go against you too often but Halladay will shine in this post season he has been waiting so long for this chance at a world series he just pitched a 2 hit shutout to clinch the division for the phillies and while his teammates were celebrating and getting drunk he was working out and watching videos of the reds he's probably gonna win the cy young he pitched a perfect game a couple months ago and he's 33 its not he's some young kid wondering what he's doing here Halladay eats pressure with his toast in the morning this guy is the real deal can't wait to watch him in action i'm hoping he does very well cause i also put futures on the phillies to win the world series back in april

[BigMama]

Great day for all.........good luck

[NYSportsGuy210]

Agreed.....

[Smogs]

I like it in theory, but Volquez is as unpredictable as they come.

If you're going to play this, play it small. Because either Cincy somehow prevails in a low-scoring game, or gets absolutely bombed.

I was actually thinking either the Red destroy Halladay, or the Phils win it small, like a 3-1 type game.
The books are going to shit a brick with all this money on the phils, if Volquez bombs then i'll have a little giggle at the bookies expense

[Ace_of_Spades]

Vegas would take a beating if Halladay wins i would imagine and Vegas usually never falls to their knees.

[Ace_of_Spades]

And JJGold has Minn and the Rangers, fuk!

[JMobile]

No play for me on the Reds/Phillies game. Too much confusion going on between the vets here.

[Smogs]

And JJGold has Minn and the Rangers, fuk!

So the correct plays are the yanks and rays lol

[superjeff24]

I gotta say, going against Halladay is not a good idea. Dude is strictly business. In a preseason game vs the Jays he didn't even speak with his former teammates before or during the game. Dude aint gonna let some playoff game affect him. Remember this is a future Hall of Famer. He will win tonight, I would almost take the ML but its a playoff game

[JMobile]

So the correct plays are the yanks and rays lol

That's what I am on.

I gotta say, going against Halladay is not a good idea. Dude is strictly business. In a preseason game vs the Jays he didn't even speak with his former teammates before or during the game. Dude aint gonna let some playoff game affect him. Remember this is a future Hall of Famer. He will win tonight, I would almost take the ML but its a playoff game

I just took the Phillies rL. Fvck it!

[superjeff24]

haha I like it! -200 isn't worth it in my opinion, but Shiet, I think I'm even going to take the RL as well. Halladay is going to pitch 7-9 strong innings, Phils will Mash Volquez and 5-2 will be the final score. If the reds muster more than one, I'll be impressed.

[JMobile]

In my mind, the Phillies line-up should not be batting under pressure or guessing pitches. That's why I took the RL, plus it's cheaper than going ML.

[shakinakin]

2007 lost game 1

2008 won both home games

2009 won game 1 but lost game 2

so they are 4-2 in the 6 home games of the NLDS.

so at +190 i like the reds.

If we are looking at the trend that says that the Phillies lose 1 in 3 shouldnt we be looking for a line in excess of +200?

[t-wizzle]

LB, how did Cliff Lee do last year? You know he had never pitched in the playoffs before either, right?

Also, I know you've probably seen the team totals on pinny.

[Brocc]

Yes i lost on Miami and i will lose many more going forward. Calling Halladay a clown is just a term that i use when im posting. I guess cause i lost the Miami play i cant ever be right again. I wish i took the Pats but i stick with what has gotten me to the dance and keeps my bankroll growing and thats my system. It is a winning system- not every time but overall. Dont forget i was down 68 units in MLB this year and people were laughing at me but i kept going and made my money. Some people were so scared to post baseball plays the last 2 months even though they were still betting it but not me. I stopped for 10 days to refresh. Brocc my friend philly should win but the game has to be played still. Dont forget you are a homer. Your vision isnt perfect. The local Toronto former GM Gillick won for you guys. You wont win without him.

Jesus LB, now you're saying they can't win without Pat Gillick Come on Bro... Of course I see where you're coming from, yes there is value against any +200 Fav & unconventional thinking usually wins more..In another thread you remarked, how many post-season games has Halladay pitched...well, how many has Volquez pitched? The same, zero. The Phils dealt with massive injuries to all their guys except Werth the 3 months of summer, then look what happened when they all came together after getting Oswalt. They're more talented from 1 to 8 hitting than any other team, Reds have Vato and that's it. They're 32-9 against winning teams the 2nd half of the season, they know when it counts. The Reds are an abysmal 12-21 against winning teams in the 2nd half. The Phils are a PERFECT 6-0 in Game 1's from 2008...Sure I'm a homer, but I think my points are valid and go beyond just rooting for my team.

Do I like when my selections are on the same side as you, sure I do! I love your way of looking at sporting events, and usually agree the majority of the time. This Phils team has probably the best rotation since the 90s Braves big 3, and we all know good pitching always neutralizes good hitting any day. I wish you the best of luck always, but not in this series

[DC]

My play on the Philly game is under 7. With the ML at -215 and the RL at +105, the books are telling me it's going to be a low scoring 1 point game! Seen it 100 times before, the RL should be -140 or so with a ML of -220! Philly has 1 run against volquez in 2 games, last game reds had 0 runs against halladay, 11 career runs in 4 games! The under 7 is the PLAY in my opinion!


Does lb have any official plays out other than San Fran series play??

[lakerboy]

LB, how did Cliff Lee do last year? You know he had never pitched in the playoffs before either, right?

Also, I know you've probably seen the team totals on pinny.

Im not gonna compare players etc. The phils got rid of lee despite him being the only reason they didnt get swept in the world series last year. Also Lee is a lefty so its not a fair comparison. Yes the team totals indicate the phillies/yanks/rangers and giants win game 1's.

Do you think those teams all win there games just based on the team totals? Also if pinny wanted they could make philly team total 4.5 but they arent cause they are afraid of the sharp money taking the under 4.5.


Listen guys i know philly is a great team and are expected to win this series and agme 1 but its baseball and there are 2 teams playing. Anything could happen.

[t-wizzle]

LB you know i'm just playing devil's advocate. I didn't bring up Lee to compare. My point is that he had never pitched a playoff game either and did just fine because pitchers of pedigree (like a Lee or Halladay) are made for this stuff.

You're 100% right here; if you wanna make a play on this game, the only real play is the reds because of the value. But I just don't see it happening. The total is dead on: Volquez will look good early but then in the middle innings, the Phillies will get to him and have their one breakout inning and that will be the difference. I think we get a 5-2 type game here.

[Bluedragon]

anybody like TEX-TB - NO TEAM TO REACH 3 runs....pays 5/1

[JR007]

"With a pitching matchup of Lee vs. Price, runs should be at a premium this afternoon in Tampa. Consider that Tampa Bay went Under the total in their final eight regular season games and that Texas has gone Under the total in its last six postseason games. Continuing the perfect trends is David Price, who has gone Under in each of his last nine home day starts. Take the Under"

"Tampa Bay starter David Price has allowed 9 runs total in his last 6 starts. The Rays are 14-3-1 UNDER their last 18 home games and they are 8-0 UNDER their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is 6-0 UNDER when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game. Texas starter Cliff Lee has allowed 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Rangers are 37-16-2 UNDER their last 58 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 10-5 in the last 15 starts made by Lee. Texas is 6-2 UNDER following a day off"

[JR007]

"Edinson Volquez, who missed the first four months of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery and serving a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, peeled off four straight quality starts in September, posting a 1.95 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, a 31-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .183 batting-average against. The Reds won three of those four contests, and they’re 9-3 when Volquez starts this season, including 4-1 on the road.

Volquez has faced Philadelphia twice (both times in 2008), and the right-hander held Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Werth, etc., to a total of one run, seven hits and four walks while striking out 16 in 12 1/3 innings. He won both contests easily (8-0 at home; 2-0 in Philly).

Obviously, Volquez and the Reds have their work cut out for them today facing Halladay, who went 21-10 with 2.44 ERA, including a complete-game 1-0 home win over the Reds on July 10. However, 11 days prior to that, the Reds beat Halladay 4-3 (the right-hander allowed all four runs on 13 hits in eight innings), so they have the confidence that they can beat him.

And when you look at how these two offenses performed down the stretch, you’ll see that Cincinnati hit .280 over its final 10 games (.284 versus right-handers) while the Phillies batted just .257 in its last 10 games (.225 versus right-handers)".

[lakerboy]

LB you know i'm just playing devil's advocate. I didn't bring up Lee to compare. My point is that he had never pitched a playoff game either and did just fine because pitchers of pedigree (like a Lee or Halladay) are made for this stuff.

You're 100% right here; if you wanna make a play on this game, the only real play is the reds because of the value. But I just don't see it happening. The total is dead on: Volquez will look good early but then in the middle innings, the Phillies will get to him and have their one breakout inning and that will be the difference. I think we get a 5-2 type game here.

Great points Twiz my brother.

Oh btw the phils TT is now favoring under at pinny.

[lakerboy]

Win or lose im taking the reds. Im not taking a 85 % public play. NO fukkin way.

[JR007]

"ODDSMAKERS SHADE AGAINST THE PUBLIC
IN MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYOFF GAMES
The Major League Baseball Playoffs start on Wednesday, and will run through the next few weeks.
Oddsmakers have some interesting challenges when posting moneylines and totals in these games. I wanted to review those for you so you can evaluate the options properly with your day-to-day selections.
The public is much more involved in the playoffs and World Series than they are the regular season. So, oddsmakers are much more focused on shading against public tendencies. That means:
*You'll pay a premium if you want to bet on a big city franchise. The Yankees may win every game, but they're never going to be a bargain on the moneyline. Squares (the general public) love betting on the Yankees. They have a storied history. They're thought of as champions no matter who has been winning World Series the past several years. Derek Jeter has become the single most celebrated player in the game...while Alex Rodriguez may be the single most despised. But, he's despised because he's a star on a winner!
Philadelphia of the National League doesn't get the line respect the Yankees of the American League do for the most part. But, it was starting to get that way late in the season when one of the Phillies' aces was on the mound. You won't get any bargains this month with Roy Halladay, and probably not with Roy Oswalt either.
*You'll pay a premium if you want to bet on the home team. Squares think home field advantage is huge in the playoffs. Historically, it's nothing special. Every so often you get a series where the home team wins every game. Not enough to justify the support squares give to home teams though. Really, the only time you WON'T be paying a premium for a home team is when somebody is hosting the Yankees, or maybe the Phils and Halladay.
*You'll pay a premium if you want to bet the Over. Squares like rooting for scoring to happen. That's true in all sports, even baseball. They figure they'll have to sweat an Under all night if they bet it, and that's no fun. A big inning can happen at any time.
Some of the best playoff bets are historically pitchers duels because you're getting high quality arms and a manageable total. You'll see a 2-1 finish that won't get anywhere near the Vegas line. If you want to bet on a quality pitcher, an Under can be the most affordable way to do that.
*Public money is more an issue in night games than in day games. Squares will treat an evening playoff game like it's football. They're going to watch. They want to root for something while they watch. Day games? Who's going to take off work to run to a sportsbook to get a game they won't watch anyway? If you're monitoring line moves to try and discern 'sharp' action (moves created by money from professional wagerers), assume moves in day games are sharp moves...and late day moves in night games are coming from a public bandwagon effect.
*Should a public team, or a home team, have lost their prior game, you'll REALLY pay a premium if you want to back them. Everyone wants to bet the bounce back. They've heard from announcers for decades that great teams always bounce back from a loss. In a 'must win' game, the public will be all over the team that has to win. Oddsmakers know this and charge a premium for the right to do so. If this is something you're prone to do yourself, BE CAREFUL! There's rarely any value in the price, even if the team does happen to get the bounce back victory. Laying -200 when a line should be -150 isn't smart even if it happens to work out.
Clearly, with all of these premiums in play, you should be able to find out where the value is. Bet against the flow!
Playoff moneylines are based on a combination of reality, perceptions, and the premiums that are charged to punish the public. If you want to beat the bases this month, you need to do a good job of:
*Figuring out how the teams and starting pitchers REALLY stand against each other.
*Figuring out which 'perceptions' are out of place because fans and the media have been paying too much attention to football lately and not enough to baseball.
*Putting those premiums in your favor instead of trying to overcome them. "

[ayuntalo]

Great points Twiz my brother.

Oh btw the phils TT is now favoring under at pinny.

no disrespect LB but i think they expect it to be 4-2 phillies..

[fletch49]

Great info JR You are right on, especially with the HT advantage NOT being that big of a deal. I have been watching MLB playoffs for many years and have discovered that in games 6 and 7 the HT with a must win situation is one of the worst bets in sports.