I'm not worried at all in the tigers game. Unless porcella really tanks it, well get to the dabax bullpen. And when we do, well tax them
My Sports
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Lakers714SBR MVP
- 06-17-09
- 4671
#20756Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#207572-2 Tigers!Comment -
unpredictableSBR Hustler
- 06-01-10
- 56
#20758guys what do you think of a STL in play for some money, currently down 1 run.Comment -
DaAceSBR MVP
- 03-28-10
- 1415
#20759Damnit,.... Why would you throw thatComment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20760fvcken Rauch. needed 1 more out!Comment -
DaAceSBR MVP
- 03-28-10
- 1415
#2076110-10
phillies twinsComment -
Lakers714SBR MVP
- 06-17-09
- 4671
#20762**** u Ross gload!!!Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20763now we continue in Twins game!Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20764come on Kelly, bring em home.Comment -
BamaCBassSBR MVP
- 10-07-09
- 1252
#20765Unbelievable Paco. They can still do this thing.Comment -
jcubs55SBR MVP
- 04-18-10
- 1023
#20766mauer is gonna get a pitch to hit right here
EDIT: or not, 4 pitch walk...Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20767Porcello needs a quick inning.Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20768need a clutch hit Twins, and get an OUt Porcello.Comment -
jcubs55SBR MVP
- 04-18-10
- 1023
#20769INFIELD RBI SINGLE FOR YOUNG!!! 11-10 Twins!!!Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20770Twins score!!!!!Comment -
BamaCBassSBR MVP
- 10-07-09
- 1252
#20771Run!!!! Yes sir!Comment -
buzzerSBR Wise Guy
- 01-15-10
- 881
#20772dam i left that twins game and missed the ninth, gotta watch nowComment -
DaAceSBR MVP
- 03-28-10
- 1415
#20773Thank you twins.... Hold onto this againComment -
Lakers714SBR MVP
- 06-17-09
- 4671
#20774Twins!!!Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20775alright Tigers, big boys coming up, tag this fvck Jackson NOW!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Lakers714SBR MVP
- 06-17-09
- 4671
#20776This dbax lineup reminds me of the jays. Bunch of free swingers that strikeout a lot and hit a lot of homers.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#20777SQUARES KEPT INVENTING REASONS
TO BET GAME SEVEN OVER
It was amazing to hear as I was walking around sportsbooks this past Thursday afternoon. The general public wanted to bet the OVER in a low scoring series featuring great defenses that was about to go to a 7th game.
You shouldn't like Overs in a low scoring series. You shouldn't like Overs with great defenses on the floor. You REALLY shouldn't like Overs in a 7th game because all the shooters are dead tired, and because 'ultimate' games like that often slow way down in terms of pace. Also, refs tend to swallow their whistles in seventh games too, meaning there are fewer free throw attempts.
The public would have none of it. Among the reasons for the Over I heard:
*Kobe, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, pick a guy, SOMEBODY was going to ignite and have a huge offensive game, and that would drive the total way Over.
*There's no way the teams would score just 156 again (technically true), so the improved scoring would create a big offensive night (apparently nobody realized there was about 31 points of breathing room there!).
*Kendrick Perkins missing the game hurt defense and helped offense at the same time because he's such a defensive force but a non-scorer (true enough, but the guys getting those minutes weren't defensive slouches or offensive stars).
*Desperate teams create free throw parades late in a big game, meaning the game would fly Over in the fourth quarter even if it was a defensive battle. Squares all remember games (especially in March Madness) where that's happened. They assume it ALWAYS happens.
*All the volatile tempers on the floor would lead to a bunch of technical fouls on the losing team. Ron Artest might attack the whole Celtics team if the Lakers were in trouble. Rasheed Wallace is a fight waiting to happen in the other direction. Things were going to get NASTY in a Game Seven war, and you'd get a lot of cheap points from technicals.
*Let's not forget a chance for overtime! Most Lakers fans weren't thinking that way because they always assume LA will win big. They don't mind having insurance though.
As it turned out, overtime wouldn't have been enough. Game Seven landed about 25 points Under the Vegas total. At the pace they were going (3.3 points per minute), it would have taken a second overtime to reach the number.
My clients and I had the Under. Many sharp handicappers and professional wagerers were on the Under as well. That's what you're supposed to do in Game Sevens in terms of the percentages. There can be as much as a 4-5% decrease in scoring in a series finale like that. Oddsmakers can't drop the total THAT far because it would create high risk with VERY unbalanced action (if square money liked Over 187, imagine what it would have thought about 181 or 178!). Oddsmakers won't put their employers in position to suffer a disaster if there is a double overtime game, or a rogue ref blowing his whistle like crazy.
Were YOU one of the people on the Over? Were YOU talking yourself into it all day even though you had just watched games land on 175, 185, 178, and 156 with your own eyes? Mathematically speaking, some of you had to be.
Here's one key thing that separates sharps from squares. Squares often decide what they think about a game in about two seconds, then spend the rest of the time trying to find reasons that justify their gut reaction. That's not 'handicapping' by any means. That's defending an uninformed knee jerk reaction. And, it's why squares lose a lot more than they win (unfortunately, those knee jerk reactions are right just often enough to trick squares into trusting their gut!).
Sharps will try to talk themselves out of a bet rather than into one. They look over the evidence, then draw their conclusions LAST. Squares draw their conclusions first. BIG DIFFERENCE.Comment -
DaAceSBR MVP
- 03-28-10
- 1415
#20778Yes... More comfortComment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20779Tolbert!!!!!!!!!!!1Comment -
HotnicksSBR Sharp
- 06-04-10
- 423
#207803 Run lead... We need a 1,2,3 inning!!Comment -
jcubs55SBR MVP
- 04-18-10
- 1023
#2078113-10 twins!!! tolbert was pegged at third but not before his 2 rbi double... lets CLOSE. THIS. OUT.Comment -
BamaCBassSBR MVP
- 10-07-09
- 1252
#20782Baez just took one for the team, Pac.
Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20783Gotta Love Brad Lidge !Comment -
buzzerSBR Wise Guy
- 01-15-10
- 881
#20784holy crap pac,Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#20785That was a dud inning by the Tigers.Comment -
Tommy_de1stSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-23-10
- 8397
#20786Time for a redtubeComment -
BamaCBassSBR MVP
- 10-07-09
- 1252
#20788Bwaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaa!!!
Unbelievable Paco. Congrats on Detroit last night and good luck on them tonight too!Comment -
Lakers714SBR MVP
- 06-17-09
- 4671
#20789You were right paco, this tigers game is gonna be a shitterComment
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