Reverend's 2010 MLB

**balls2wall** · 04-26-10, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by dyeguy

Here's my favorite. If you scroll over the pitcher's name, it brings up a summary of their performance.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/?tcid=nav_mlb_schedule

Here is the same thing, but it is all on one page without having to highlight the pitcher to see the write ups.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/index.jsp?c_id=mlb

**ahhlenn** · 04-26-10, 12:46 PM

let's get it today rev, liking seatle and arizona

**rgbraves** · 04-26-10, 12:57 PM

I am new to this forum and this thread. It looks as if you have cleaned up so far this season. If i were to start today do i play to win 3 units tonight on the brewers. I don't quite understand the 2 game chase. Also do i play to win 1.5 units on the cubs and angels or 1 unit since i haven't won my 20 games yet?

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by rgbraves

I am new to this forum and this thread. It looks as if you have cleaned up so far this season. If i were to start today do i play to win 3 units tonight on the brewers. I don't quite understand the 2 game chase. Also do i play to win 1.5 units on the cubs and angels or 1 unit since i haven't won my 20 games yet?

Great question. I am going to try and address this in a future post as I have gotten a number of PM questions about the same issue. If you are just starting today, then play each series to win 1 unit and build up your roll like I mentioned in the first post and increase the units as you go.

I am going to start weighting the series, so if I have 4 plays, 3 are for 1.5 units and 1 is for 2 units, then you would be fine to bet more on the "top" play and so forth.

Glad to have you in the thread

**rgbraves** · 04-26-10, 01:09 PM

Thanks for clearing that up for me. It says 2 game chase for the brewers and not for the cubs and angels. What is the difference. Sorry i am a little confused.

**investor** · 04-26-10, 01:10 PM

Rev, sent you some points.

Just started looking at your thread yesterday but i love that your so helpful and patient. Thanks!

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by rgbraves

Thanks for clearing that up for me. It says 2 game chase for the brewers and not for the cubs and angels. What is the difference. Sorry i am a little confused.

A normal series chase is going to be on 3 games. So you have to be prepared to make and a, b and c bet.

but the brewers series, I am only willing to chase it for an a and b bet.

**wacky13** · 04-26-10, 01:11 PM

thanks Reverend

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by investor

Rev, sent you some points.

Just started looking at your thread yesterday but i love that your so helpful and patient. Thanks!

Thanks for the points!

I always appreciate yall sending some points my way!

**JVP3122** · 04-26-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by rgbraves

Thanks for clearing that up for me. It says 2 game chase for the brewers and not for the cubs and angels. What is the difference. Sorry i am a little confused.

Rev doesn't like the pitching matchup in the third game for the Brewers, but thinks the other two are favorable, so he's only playing two games with them. For the Cubs and Angels he's willing to chase for the full three games if need be.

Also, with the wager amount. Just take however much you've got in your bankroll, and start with 2% of it. When you get a return of 50% on your original bankroll, then increase the bet to 2% of whatever the new bankroll is. Just follow what Rev is betting based on what the units are supposed to be. Like he said, if the standard bet is 1.5 units and he's betting 3 units, just double what your normal bet is. I'm just starting now and that's how I'm doing it. I might even consider re-calculating my 2% at the beginning of each week instead of when I've increased my bankroll by 50%.

**rgbraves** · 04-26-10, 01:22 PM

Thanks for the help

**rgbraves** · 04-26-10, 01:38 PM

So if the brewers lose today and tomorrow you lose the series bet.

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by rgbraves

So if the brewers lose today and tomorrow you lose the series bet.

that is the plan of action for now. i dont want to cut myself off from a possilbe c bet, but it is highly likely that i would end the chase after the 2nd game

**bozeman** · 04-26-10, 01:43 PM

reverend is that 47-3 your individual bets record, no chasin I mean?

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:52 PM

Monday April 26:

Series System:

A Bet: Brewers (ML) 6.15 Units to Win 3 Units (2 Game Chase)

A Bet: Cubs (ML) 2.25 Units to Win 1.5 Units

A Bet: Angels (ML) 2.77 Units to Win 1.5 Units

Situational System:

A Bet: Boston (ML) 2.8 Units to Win 2 Units

FAV System:

A Bet: Brewers (-1 RL) 3 Units to Win 2 Units

Individual Bets:

Marlins (-1 RL) 2.15 Units to Win 2 Units

Arizona (-1 RL) 1.65 Units to Win 2 Units

Seattle (-1 RL) 2.7 Units to Win 1 Unit

*If the Braves beat the Cardinals on Monday, I will be looking at a possible 2 game chase on the Cardinals starting on Tuesday

*We will have 2-3 possible series starting on Tuesday

*Also note that I have altered the flat betting of the previous 3 weeks and have weighted the different series

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by bozeman

reverend is that 47-3 your individual bets record, no chasin I mean?

no, it is my personal record with individual bets and chases. I did not place a c bet in 2 of our series, which I took as 2 losses although both c games won.

i wanted to separate the "systems record" from my personal record, so everyone knows upfront where i stand.

**tokio** · 04-26-10, 02:05 PM

Sent you some points bro.

**MrMike** · 04-26-10, 02:07 PM

gl tonight

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by tokio

Sent you some points bro.

I really appreciate that tokio!

**Djtrikee** · 04-26-10, 02:39 PM

Rev, If you were to put your bankroll on two teams today, which two would it be?? Im thinking about making a huge bet on Brewers/Angels on a Two Team Parlay.

**jolmscheid** · 04-26-10, 02:59 PM

AWESOME Rev! Thanks for all you do...let's get 'em tonight!

**mister bee** · 04-26-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

AWESOME Rev! Thanks for all you do...let's get 'em tonight!

+1

lemme toss a few points your way also.

**docvinny** · 04-26-10, 03:50 PM

gl tonight

**youngerthree** · 04-26-10, 04:20 PM

This thread is awesome

**Jethro** · 04-26-10, 04:49 PM

-1run calculator

Rev, I used the -1run calc. on the Brewers Fav game but the results show a loss when I fill in the blanks. What am I doing wrong?

**kelvinlym** · 04-26-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Jethro

Rev, I used the -1run calc. on the Brewers Fav game but the results show a loss when I fill in the blanks. What am I doing wrong?

If you see the column "Total win" less than total bet, that is because it means your nett win. i.e. IF you bet 10 dollars, you are paid 16 dollars; 10 dollars your original bet, 6 dollars your winnings.

**Jethro** · 04-26-10, 05:06 PM

Bookmaker has runline @ -105 and moneyline @ -230 for the Brewers tonight. If you insert these figures into the spreadsheet and bet any amount you want, the result is always a negative amount. I'm pretty sure about that.

**kelvinlym** · 04-26-10, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Jethro

Bookmaker has runline @ -105 and moneyline @ -230 for the Brewers tonight. If you insert these figures into the spreadsheet and bet any amount you want, the result is always a negative amount. I'm pretty sure about that.

I realised that the formula in the calculator is not accurate. Try the other one.

Here, I've updated the formulas.

-1RL_Calculator

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjeMU09tFqoqdGFWem1qeUYyVGJqYjFGangxODl6TkE&hl=en_GB

**balls2wall** · 04-26-10, 05:32 PM

as I have been saying, everyone needs to use the one that I posted called RL CALC.xls

I wouldn't use the one called -1rl_calculator

**investor** · 04-26-10, 06:00 PM

Balls can you pleas repost your calculator here? I don't know where to look for it in your posts.

**jbizzle** · 04-26-10, 06:04 PM

lets get it tonight guys!! BOL!

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Djtrikee

Rev, If you were to put your bankroll on two teams today, which two would it be?? Im thinking about making a huge bet on Brewers/Angels on a Two Team Parlay.

i like that parlay

**reverend** · 04-26-10, 06:10 PM

lets get it done tonight boys

**swngus44** · 04-26-10, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by JVP3122

Rev doesn't like the pitching matchup in the third game for the Brewers, but thinks the other two are favorable, so he's only playing two games with them. For the Cubs and Angels he's willing to chase for the full three games if need be.

Also, with the wager amount. Just take however much you've got in your bankroll, and start with 2% of it. When you get a return of 50% on your original bankroll, then increase the bet to 2% of whatever the new bankroll is. Just follow what Rev is betting based on what the units are supposed to be. Like he said, if the standard bet is 1.5 units and he's betting 3 units, just double what your normal bet is. I'm just starting now and that's how I'm doing it. I might even consider re-calculating my 2% at the beginning of each week instead of when I've increased my bankroll by 50%.

New to this site and thread. I want to make sure I'm doing the math right. Your saying 2% of your bankroll. So if you have a bankroll of $1000, your only betting a max of $20. Since I'm new, I want to be conservative. I'm only going to bet on series system for now. So if you had a $1000 bankroll, you would only bet $20 on these three picks. You must have a serious bankroll if I'm doing the math right. It just seems like a very small wager. Just making sure.

**Jordan23** · 04-26-10, 06:41 PM

Hello everyone. I am Anthony. I am new to the thread. I am also new to the world of sports betting. I look forward to learning more and improving my skills! I have been reading over this thread and I must say I am very impressed. Everyone here seems like they have something great to offer and everyone seems so friendly and willing to help each other.

I have a question. When you say (-1 RL) is that the same as -1.5?