Reverend's 2010 MLB

reverend · 04-26-10, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by allenc85

you posting any plays tonight rev?

Yes. I am just finishing up working through all the new series that start on Monday and Tuesday.

I should have them up shortly...

sheffield77 · 04-26-10, 12:17 AM

gonna start tailing it looks promising

Waikong83 · 04-26-10, 12:39 AM

Keep up the good work Rev!!!

dolphan34 · 04-26-10, 12:58 AM

Can't wait for the picks. I don't personally see more than 2 or 3 series plays, but waiting to see what you say.

jpot34 · 04-26-10, 01:02 AM

You da man, Rev! Looking forward to your plays!!!!!

reverend · 04-26-10, 01:21 AM

Monday April 26:

Series System:

A Bet: Brewers (ML) X Units to Win 3 Units (2 Game Chase)

A Bet: Cubs (ML) X Units to Win 1.5 Units

A Bet: Angels (ML) X Units to Win 1.5 Units

Situational System:

A Bet: Boston (ML) X Units to Win 2 Units

FAV System:

A Bet: Brewers (-1 RL) X Units to Win 2 Units

Individual Bets:

Marlins (-1 RL) X Units to Win 2 Units

Arizona (-1 RL) X Units to Win 2 Units

Seattle (-1 RL) X Units to Win 1 Unit

*If the Braves beat the Cardinals on Monday, I will be looking at a possible 2 game chase on the Cardinals starting on Tuesday

*We will have 2-3 possible series starting on Tuesday

*Also note that I have altered the flat betting of the previous 3 weeks and have weighted the different series

*I will add in the units wagered tomorrow once I have placed the bets

Edge29 · 04-26-10, 01:25 AM

Thanks for the update, Rev.

Why so confident in the Brewers? With the juice we're currently looking at for them it would be hard for me to risk 6ish units to win 3 on them. Also, why just a 2 game chase? What scares you about Wednesday's matchup?

Thanks for all your hard work!

jpot34 · 04-26-10, 01:25 AM

Outstanding, Rev! Let's get em.

reverend · 04-26-10, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by Edge29

Thanks for the update, Rev.

Why so confident in the Brewers? With the juice we're currently looking at for them it would be hard for me to risk 6ish units to win 3 on them. Also, why just a 2 game chase? What scares you about Wednesday's matchup?

Thanks for all your hard work!

Brewers have 2 quality pitchers. They are going in these first 2 games, and I love the fact they just got swept at home by the Cubs.

Gallardo K'd 10 with 0 ER last week against this Pit lineup @ Pit
Duke walked 4, gave up 7 hits and 6 ER last week against MIL @ home

I suspect the Brewers are going to pull out the sticks tomorrow and lay down a beating.

Edge29 · 04-26-10, 01:32 AM

Fair enough, appreciate the insight and analysis.

reverend · 04-26-10, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by Edge29

Fair enough, appreciate the insight and analysis.

sure thing edge

natelli1 · 04-26-10, 02:22 AM

these systems look absolutely amazing..still not sure about the series system ... do you bet them to win the series(2of3 or sweep)? or do u bet the first game and if it loses then you chase? its probably really simple im just not understanding it fully

mizzoujohn · 04-26-10, 02:42 AM

Originally posted by natelli1

these systems look absolutely amazing..still not sure about the series system ... do you bet them to win the series(2of3 or sweep)? or do u bet the first game and if it loses then you chase? its probably really simple im just not understanding it fully

bet for the team to NOT get swept. Should be an overview in post 1 I think.
John

thechaoz · 04-26-10, 02:54 AM

Ok to follow up, I am new to bases betting as of this season. On the few sites I play on I don't see anything about betting the series in baseball. Do we just bet all 3 games individually and try to reach our units desired/chase it etc? Do some sites not have this option?

Thanks

EDIT: Ok I noticed you are betting individual games. Why on some are you trying to get 1.5 units as a win. I understand the 2 game chase if you expect them to win the series and lost the first game.

BillAccpetor · 04-26-10, 03:16 AM

Today Braves against Cardinals (@home)...

On STL...

mizzoujohn · 04-26-10, 03:38 AM

ok... to the people posting asking about how this chase works without doing any reading first, read this thread through starting most importantly with page 1, you should figure it out. There are numerous other threads in this forum with chase systems to read, in case this thread didn't make it clear to you. Rev, myself, the other people working on these systems are more than happy to explain anything and everything, we are all in this together, but with that said, do a little reading first and figure the basics out. We aren't here to give a synopsis to every person who jumps in without doing a little research.

With that said, here are my plays for tomorrow (My play in caps):

A: Cle @ LAA
A: Pit @ MIL
A: PHI @ Sf 2 Games Only,

Thats it for tomorrow... I'll consider playing STL if they lose tomorrow.

thanks, and good luck all,
John

mizzoujohn · 04-26-10, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by Edge29

Thanks for the update, Rev.

Why so confident in the Brewers? With the juice we're currently looking at for them it would be hard for me to risk 6ish units to win 3 on them. Also, why just a 2 game chase? What scares you about Wednesday's matchup?

Thanks for all your hard work!

I recommend taking the -1RL... You would be laying 4.4 to win 3 instead. You push if Mil wins by 1 but I gladly took that to significantly cut down my risk.

John

denn333 · 04-26-10, 04:15 AM

roll on...

Sawyer · 04-26-10, 04:33 AM

Liked Brewers chase! I know they just get swept at home by Cubs but Pirates are a excellent opponent for a bounce back. GL Rev!

therber2 · 04-26-10, 05:08 AM

Rev,

When you say "-1 RL" do you mean -1 or -1.5?

therber2 · 04-26-10, 05:32 AM

Originally posted by therber2

Rev,

When you say "-1 RL" do you mean -1 or -1.5?

NVM, Rev I read the first page, and figured it out. I know how to calculate that; I LOVE this thread. Wish I discovered it earlier. I am running a few interesting things at "The Big Card" if you'd like to drop by at any time.

I am really liking the Brewers based on a system I have been developing; you can see it in depth at the Big Card or at cleanuphitter.com; the owner liked the system enough to include it on his site for me. Really great guy.

The only worry I have about the Brewers is that this is a grudge match vs. the Pirates, and the juice is high. Other than that; I think the Pirates are awful, and I wish you luck on this. I think it is too early in the season for grudges anyways. I love the transparency of what you are posting here. I think you, G, and I think very much alike in that regard. At the big card we are about developing thoughts and strategies; haven't really gotten to the point where I can feel confident in providing picks to people. My experimental record is great, but my inside info has unfortunately lost people cash in a few cases. Anyways, glad I stopped by here today.

betmajster · 04-26-10, 05:40 AM

Originally posted by chase1

So refreshing to see a MLB season long thread that is positive. You have a great system in place here and will be following it. Plus many thanks to balls2wall for providing the link to the excellent spreadsheet for tracking progressive bets. Here it is in case you missed it I think on pg4- http://www.1stopsportsinvestors.com/...-blueprint.php. I wouldn't worry about all the other stuff on the page since all we need is the Reverends plays. Keep up the good work!!

thanks Chase for the link.
I was just beginning to make a similar spreadsheet, but u saved me some time and I can enjoy nice weather outside.
cheers, mate

diegoelmestre · 04-26-10, 06:42 AM

lets go some cash ^^

Betting Guru · 04-26-10, 07:31 AM

Let's go Rev, appreciate the extra info on brewers!

sycoogtit · 04-26-10, 07:49 AM

Let's get it rev. Threw some points your way -- thanks for the great thread.

aufordboy · 04-26-10, 08:00 AM

Thanks Rev -- Let's Go Brewers!

robert_wrath · 04-26-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Liked Brewers chase! I know they just get swept at home by Cubs but Pirates are a excellent opponent for a bounce back. GL Rev!

Hard Lean on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh this week. Smells like an easy money team to ride for the series.

Don't be surprised if they sweep thru.

Love em like your mother, Buck em like a whore!

robert_wrath · 04-26-10, 08:13 AM

Hey Reverend, have you any thoughts or strong considerations on the Seattle/Kansas City series? Thanx for your input on the issue.

Siksid · 04-26-10, 08:56 AM

Keep the money flowing reverend

balls2wall · 04-26-10, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

bet for the team to NOT get swept. Should be an overview in post 1 I think.
John

LOL, yeah, good ole post #1 is always a good place to start.

khaden · 04-26-10, 09:13 AM

xxx

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

ok... to the people posting asking about how this chase works without doing any reading first, read this thread through starting most importantly with page 1, you should figure it out. There are numerous other threads in this forum with chase systems to read, in case this thread didn't make it clear to you. Rev, myself, the other people working on these systems are more than happy to explain anything and everything, we are all in this together, but with that said, do a little reading first and figure the basics out. We aren't here to give a synopsis to every person who jumps in without doing a little research.

With that said, here are my plays for tomorrow (My play in caps):

A: Cle @ LAA
A: Was @ CHC
A: Pit @ MIL
A: PHI @ Sf 2 Games Only,

Thats it for tomorrow... I'll consider playing STL if they lose tomorrow.

thanks, and good luck all,
John

With you on the Phillies series--I really thought this would have been a situational series this week. I am going to add it as well, Holliday is a steal at this price.

spankadank · 04-26-10, 09:30 AM

I do not have excel, is there a simple equation I can use to get a -1 RL. Thanks for the help. Great job on the thread Rev and everyone else helping.

mlb · 04-26-10, 09:38 AM

Good luck today man ... gonna be an important day with all the heavy juice lines

brko · 04-26-10, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by spankadank

I do not have excel, is there a simple equation I can use to get a -1 RL. Thanks for the help. Great job on the thread Rev and everyone else helping.

you have online calculators, but only one i can now think of uses decimal odds

balls2wall · 04-26-10, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by spankadank

I do not have excel, is there a simple equation I can use to get a -1 RL. Thanks for the help. Great job on the thread Rev and everyone else helping.

Yes, but I don't know off the top of my head.

here is basically how it works

say you want to win $100

-200 ML and +100 RL = -150 easy enough

you would bet ($100) enough to win $50 on the ML and risk $50 on the RL so they cancel each other out if they win by 1 run and give you the $100 profit if it wins by 2 or more.

the amount you risk on the RL is always equal to the amount to win on the ML so they cancel each other out if it is a 1 run win