The bombCanada MLB Runline Chase

[bombCanada]

This system is a synthesis of systems ideas from around this and other boards.

The rules are pretty simple:
1) Play the biggest opening line favorite (as listed on sbrodds) on a synthetic -1 runline.
2) Chase losses up to 6 games (this could change as I develop the idea further)
3) Actual dollars are tracked. Lines are from Matchbook at the time I make the wager. A purely arbitrary $10 is risked on each game.
4) I may choose to track variations on the theme. I'm especially interested in variations on money management.
5) The first 2 weeks and the last 2 weeks of the system will be accounted for separately to see if results are demonstrably different from the rest of the season.

[bombCanada]

For 4/5:

CWS ML $6.09 to win $3.90 (-156)
CWS RL $3.90 to win $5.23 (+134)

Game record: 0 - 0 - 0
Chase record: 0 - 0

Note on the synthetic -1 runline: since matchbook only makes a market in a runline of -1.5, one can synthesize a -1 line with a combination of ML and RL-1.5 wagers. Note that if CWS wins by exactly 1 run, then the win on the ML bet exactly offsets the loss on the RL-1.5 bet, creating a push. I far prefer the 3 options of win, lose, or push to the 2 options of win or lose.

[johnolerud9]

keeping track

So you will post everyday to keep track, I will join your system.
I have a min to win $25 site im on so what should my bet be?

[bombCanada]

So you will post everyday to keep track, I will join your system. I have a min to win $25 site im on so what should my bet be?

Multiply each of the risked numbers (or win numbers) above by 2.5.

So for the ML portion of the wager, risk 15.23 to win 9.75. Do the same for the RL portion. You're going to have to account for the difference in the odds at your book. The important aspect of the synthetic -1 RL is to make sure the ML win amount is the same as the RL risk amount so that the result of a 1 run win is a push.

[johnolerud9]

I was trying to say that my bets have to be a min of $25 so what should be the breakdown based on that, the lines are not out yet but let me know based on your odds so I can figure it out in the future

[bombCanada]

This is a simple math problem. Bet $25 on the RL. 25 / 3.90 = 6.41.

Now multiply the ML amount * 6.41 = 39.04. Bet that on the ML.

[johnolerud9]

Bets are in, so let's keep track and win

[bombCanada]

Win yesterday, CWS 6 CLE 0

Game record 1 - 0 - 0
Chase record 1 - 0
Season Profit $9.13

[bombCanada]

For 4/6:

TAM ML $6.4 to win $3.56 (-181)
TAM RL $3.56 to win $4.16 (+117)

[bombCanada]

Push yesterday, TAM 4 BAL 3

Game record 1 - 0 - 1
Chase record 1 - 0
Game Profit $0.00
Season Profit $9.13

[bombCanada]

For 4/7:

TAM ML $6.71 to win $3.29 (-204)
TAM RL $3.29 to win $3.45 (+105)

[glassjaw]

BOL bombCanada.

I'm tailing...

[million2one]

Good luck, I'm a sucker for chase systems, will be checking it out.

[bombCanada]

4/7 Push:

BAL 3
TAM 4

First 2 weeks:
Games 1 - 0 - 2
Chase 1 - 0
Game Profit: $0.00
Season Profit: $9.13

[bombCanada]

BOL bombCanada.

I'm tailing...

Thank you for the kind wishes and best luck to us both!

[bombCanada]

Good luck, I'm a sucker for chase systems, will be checking it out.

Million, thank you for the support, best luck to you as well.

[bombCanada]

Well, it's taken less than a week and I'm already questioning the play the system dictates today... BAL/TAM for the 3d day in a row... TAM has won twice already in this series, and the opening odds keep going up, although the current odds have reduced quite a bit. This is making it feel like a streak chasing system, which is not what I want it to be. I've deliberately separated out the first two week for exactly reasons like this. I need to think about this a little more.

[bombCanada]

For 4/8:

TAM ML $6.21 to win $3.79 (-164)
TAM RL $3.79 to win $4.39 (+116)

[johnolerud9]

braves

I see that the braves are even lower odds

[bombCanada]

I see that the braves are even lower odds

Team selection is based upon opening odds as listed in sbrodds at the time I look at it. I show the Braves opening yesterday at -165.

[bombCanada]

4/8 Game Loss

BAL 5
TAM 4

First 2 weeks:
Games 1 - 1 - 2
Chase 1 - 0
Game Profit: -$10.00
Season Profit: -$0.87

So while I'm unhappy about events proving me right, I have to figure out whether or not I should modify the system as a result of what I emotionally believe to be an inevitable loss.

[TheCommish]

Careful with adding feeling to it, once you do that it's no longer a system. (Not that any system is guaranteed or anything).

[bombCanada]

For 4/9

COL ML $13.84 to win $8.24 (-168)
COL RL $8.24 to win $10.05 (+122)

So this is a B bet... a $10 risk on the game + the additional $12.07 to win back the $10 loss yesterday.

[bombCanada]

Careful with adding feeling to it, once you do that it's no longer a system. (Not that any system is guaranteed or anything).

Hi Commish

Have been admiring your work from afar in both the NHL and now MLB contests in sbrpicks. Thank you for watching my thread.

And yes, I agree that feeling / intuition has no place in a system and that's why I made the TAM play in spite of all that. I'm not a big enough fan of baseball to know if this is going to be a pattern that repeats itself throughout the season. Will be interesting to watch.

Thanks again.

[johnolerud9]

well that would be a win today!!!!!!!

[bombCanada]

4/9 Win:

SDG 0
COL 7

First 2 weeks:
Games 2 - 1 - 2
Chase 2 - 0
Game Profit: $18.29
Season Profit: $17.42

[bombCanada]

well that would be a win today!!!!!!!

John, thank you and I appreciate your playing along at home.

[bombCanada]

OK, Saturday presents 2 problems... Clear favorite ARI requires the -1 RL system to lay odds on the -1.5 RL line. If I fall back to the 2nd best opening lines, there are 2 teams who opened at -175, DET and COL. I'm going to choose COL again because the opening odds on the -1.5RL show them slightly more likely to win by 2.

[bombCanada]

For 4/10

COL ML $5.95 to win $4.05 (-147)
COL RL $4.05 to win $5.38 (+133)

Good luck!

[TheCommish]

Best of luck (even though I'm Canadian )

[goblue12]

Love the user name.

Good luck on your strategy.

[johnolerud9]

Im in for the COL!!!!

[bombCanada]

4/10 Loss:

SDG 5
COL 4 (14 innings)

First 2 weeks:
Games 2 - 2 - 2
Chase 2 - 0
Game Profit: -$10.00
Season Profit: $7.42

[bombCanada]

COL is laying money on the RL today. There are 4 teams who opened at -200. Of them SFO now has the best odds so they'll be my play for today.

[bombCanada]

For 4/11

SFO ML $15.21 to win $8.45 (-180)
SFO RL $8.45 to win $8.87 (+105)

Good luck!