Toronto stayed alive with a convincing 13-4 win over Seattle in Game 3 that saw all 3 of our prop bets cash. SBR's Josh Goldberg shares his best bets from Game 4 of Blue Jays vs Mariners:
Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 hits (+110 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho has struggled against Mariners starter Luis Castillo, registering only one hit in 12 at-bats (.083 average). He had two hits in Game 3, but had only one hit in the previous four games combined.
Varsho has a .428 wOBA in the postseason thus far, but a .346 xWOBA, indicating some good fortune in his overall quality of contact. Castillo has permitted a modest 13.3% hard-hit rate in two postseason appearances."
Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-103 via Caesars)
"Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco has one home run in eight career at-bats against Max Scherzer. He handled himself well against both fastballs and offspeed pitches during the regular season, which should allow Polanco to be in a position to continue having success against Toronto's inconsistent bullpen once Scherzer is out of the game.
Polanco was a completely different hitter at T-Mobile Park in the regular season, posting a .902 OPS with 15 home runs and 47 RBIs, compared to a .740 OPS with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs on the road."
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 walks (+126 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has drawn three walks in his 18 career at-bats against Castillo. After a flawless four-hit performance in Game 3, I expect Seattle to be cautious with Guerrero whenever they can.
Castillo has walked six batters per nine innings in the postseason. Seattle’s bullpen, meanwhile, has handed out 3.51 free passes per nine innings in the playoffs."
Addison Barger to hit a home run (+700 via Caesars)
"Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder Addison Barger crushed his first career postseason homer to cap off Toronto’s impressive Game 3 victory.
The young slugger has been held in check for the most part in the postseason, but he seems to really enjoy hitting at T-Mobile Park. He hit .462 with one homer, three RBIs, and a 1.423 OPS in 13 at-bats during the regular season.
Barger ranked in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, 86th percentile in average exit velocity, and 93rd percentile in bat speed during the regular season.
Castillo had issues giving up loud contact in 2025, sitting in the 17th percentile in barrel percentage and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate."
Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 hits (+110 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho has struggled against Mariners starter Luis Castillo, registering only one hit in 12 at-bats (.083 average). He had two hits in Game 3, but had only one hit in the previous four games combined.
Varsho has a .428 wOBA in the postseason thus far, but a .346 xWOBA, indicating some good fortune in his overall quality of contact. Castillo has permitted a modest 13.3% hard-hit rate in two postseason appearances."
Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-103 via Caesars)
"Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco has one home run in eight career at-bats against Max Scherzer. He handled himself well against both fastballs and offspeed pitches during the regular season, which should allow Polanco to be in a position to continue having success against Toronto's inconsistent bullpen once Scherzer is out of the game.
Polanco was a completely different hitter at T-Mobile Park in the regular season, posting a .902 OPS with 15 home runs and 47 RBIs, compared to a .740 OPS with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs on the road."
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 walks (+126 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has drawn three walks in his 18 career at-bats against Castillo. After a flawless four-hit performance in Game 3, I expect Seattle to be cautious with Guerrero whenever they can.
Castillo has walked six batters per nine innings in the postseason. Seattle’s bullpen, meanwhile, has handed out 3.51 free passes per nine innings in the playoffs."
Addison Barger to hit a home run (+700 via Caesars)
"Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder Addison Barger crushed his first career postseason homer to cap off Toronto’s impressive Game 3 victory.
The young slugger has been held in check for the most part in the postseason, but he seems to really enjoy hitting at T-Mobile Park. He hit .462 with one homer, three RBIs, and a 1.423 OPS in 13 at-bats during the regular season.
Barger ranked in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, 86th percentile in average exit velocity, and 93rd percentile in bat speed during the regular season.
Castillo had issues giving up loud contact in 2025, sitting in the 17th percentile in barrel percentage and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate."