The Mariners return home for Game 3 on Wednesday after taking both the first two games of the ALCS in Toronto. SBR's Sean Tomlinson shares his best player prop bets for Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3:
George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 via DraftKings)
"The Blue Jays seem to strike out almost never, recording the second-fewest regular-season strikeouts. The Jays boast a lineup filled with hitters who make consistent contact, resulting in an MLB-leading .265 average.
They've become even firmer in that approach throughout the playoffs. New York Yankees starting pitchers recorded a total of just seven strikeouts across four games against Toronto during the ALDS, and Mariners starters have tallied five throughout nine combined innings thus far.
Next up is George Kirby, who went below this 4.5 strikeout line 10 times during the regular season. He has three pitches he leans on 25% of the time or higher: a four-seamer, slider, and sinker. The fastball is effective, but right-handers are posting a .292 batting average with a .479 slugging percentage against the sinker, according to Baseball Savant."
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases (+112 via DraftKings)
"Cal Raleigh will surely bat from the left side against the right-handed Shane Bieber. However, going to the right side could serve him well, as the inconsistent Bieber has given up a .935 OPS to righties this season.
It all might not matter much, though, as Raleigh posted a .909 regular-season OPS against righties from the left side. And being a homer-prone righty as Bieber has become this season (more on that below) certainly doesn't bode well when facing Big Dumper, who deposited a league-leading 60 home runs into the outfield seats, setting a record for catchers and switch-hitters.
Bieber gave up a homer in all but one of his seven regular-season appearances, including two apiece in the hurler's final two outings. And when he departs, Raleigh will get to face a Blue Jays bullpen again that's allowed a postseason-worst six homers thus far."
Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM)
"It's unclear which version of Bieber will show up tonight, or if he'll ever be a truly dominant ace again. But despite his wild inconsistencies, here's what we know for sure: He gives up bombs.
There have been so many loud detonations, even when the good or great version of Bieber is on the mound. Call it ineffectiveness or a layer of rust that still needs to be shaken off at the major-league level after a long layoff. It doesn't matter to us for this bet as part of our Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props, or to the smoldering-hot Julio Rodriguez.
Including the playoffs, Bieber has logged 43 innings for Toronto since being a trade-deadline acquisition and finishing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He's allowed eight homers during just that stretch, and the veteran ended the regular season with a 1.8 HR/9. That's significantly higher than his two pre-injury seasons (0.8 in 2022 and 1.0 in 2023).
A starter giving up a career-worst hard-hit rate of 48.2% will need to contend with Rodriguez, who hit 22 homers off righties during the season with an average exit velocity that sat in the 87th percentile. He's also still riding high after a second half in which Rodriguez posted a .900 OPS."
George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 via DraftKings)
"The Blue Jays seem to strike out almost never, recording the second-fewest regular-season strikeouts. The Jays boast a lineup filled with hitters who make consistent contact, resulting in an MLB-leading .265 average.
They've become even firmer in that approach throughout the playoffs. New York Yankees starting pitchers recorded a total of just seven strikeouts across four games against Toronto during the ALDS, and Mariners starters have tallied five throughout nine combined innings thus far.
Next up is George Kirby, who went below this 4.5 strikeout line 10 times during the regular season. He has three pitches he leans on 25% of the time or higher: a four-seamer, slider, and sinker. The fastball is effective, but right-handers are posting a .292 batting average with a .479 slugging percentage against the sinker, according to Baseball Savant."
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases (+112 via DraftKings)
"Cal Raleigh will surely bat from the left side against the right-handed Shane Bieber. However, going to the right side could serve him well, as the inconsistent Bieber has given up a .935 OPS to righties this season.
It all might not matter much, though, as Raleigh posted a .909 regular-season OPS against righties from the left side. And being a homer-prone righty as Bieber has become this season (more on that below) certainly doesn't bode well when facing Big Dumper, who deposited a league-leading 60 home runs into the outfield seats, setting a record for catchers and switch-hitters.
Bieber gave up a homer in all but one of his seven regular-season appearances, including two apiece in the hurler's final two outings. And when he departs, Raleigh will get to face a Blue Jays bullpen again that's allowed a postseason-worst six homers thus far."
Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM)
"It's unclear which version of Bieber will show up tonight, or if he'll ever be a truly dominant ace again. But despite his wild inconsistencies, here's what we know for sure: He gives up bombs.
There have been so many loud detonations, even when the good or great version of Bieber is on the mound. Call it ineffectiveness or a layer of rust that still needs to be shaken off at the major-league level after a long layoff. It doesn't matter to us for this bet as part of our Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props, or to the smoldering-hot Julio Rodriguez.
Including the playoffs, Bieber has logged 43 innings for Toronto since being a trade-deadline acquisition and finishing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He's allowed eight homers during just that stretch, and the veteran ended the regular season with a 1.8 HR/9. That's significantly higher than his two pre-injury seasons (0.8 in 2022 and 1.0 in 2023).
A starter giving up a career-worst hard-hit rate of 48.2% will need to contend with Rodriguez, who hit 22 homers off righties during the season with an average exit velocity that sat in the 87th percentile. He's also still riding high after a second half in which Rodriguez posted a .900 OPS."