On3's MLB 2024 Opening Day System

[atthehalf]

Oh my goodness! What a good chase move! Good stuff grecycle99! I love seeing guys stick it to the books like that!

[atthehalf]

Now I have something to watch for. I have Waldron ranked at #11 and Winckowski dead last today at #30. I don't have anything on this game to be sure based on Wincko's 64% use rate and his 6 at bats vs the Fathers and Waldron's 2 at bats vs the Red Sox. Not enough data for me to get involved as a fantasy stats bettor.

Traditional line and side bettors are factoring in also that the Red Sox shouldn't get swept off of their home field. Should be good. I am most definitely rooting for this to work considering how much consideration is on this play.

Get their bread grecycle99! Blast away babe!

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/30/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 25.94
(B) 2 * 25.94
(C) 4 * 25.94

REGULAR FOR 06/30/2024

(C) Boston -105 to win 2.6U

Filtered

(C) Boston -105 to win 2.6U

5/2

(B) Boston -105 to win 8.65

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/28/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 19.45
(B) 8 * 19.45
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/28/2024

(B) Arizona RL +108 to win 1.95U
(B) Boston -133 to win 1.95U

Filtered

(B) Arizona RL +108 to win 1.95U
(B) Boston -133 to win 1.95U

5/2

(A) Arizona RL +108 to win 5U
(A) Boston -133 to win 5U

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/27/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 14 * 11.26
(B) 2 * 11.26
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/27/2024

(A) Arizona -166 to win 1.13U
(A) Atlanta -189 to win 1.13U
(A) Boston -151 to win 1.13U
(A) Tampa Bay -161 to win 1.13U
(B) Philadelphia RL -106 to win 1.13U

Filtered

(A) Arizona -166 to win 1.13U
(A) Atlanta -189 to win 1.13U
(A) Boston -151 to win 1.13U
5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

Phi B
Bos A
TB A
Arz A
ATL A

Some action for Friday if lines hold.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/27/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 11.06
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/27/2024

(A) Baltimore -185 to win 1.11U
(A) Philadelphia RL -126 to win 1.11U

Watch STL -138

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/26/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 14.23
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/26/2024

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3695701-on3s-mlb-2022-opening-day-system-p8.html

I think we have to go back and test 2022 using a different method because that year go so out of hand! Was close to -600 units at one point. So I think this labby method needs to be more hybrid with some type of stop loss. Maybe 10-20 unit downswing the lines need to be reset. Other wise there is no way to scale this system and no bankroll can support this type of chase when a hurricane hits.

Maybe over the next month I'll spend some time on 2022 and share my results. Going to implement my method with a 20 unit stop loss where the lines get reset. There are multiple days in September of 2022 where there is close to 400 units at risk on A-wagers!

[J.M. Disciple]

Less than a unit left on the line. Just reset the line or do you add $10 (10 - 14.23) ?

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/25/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 106-4; Profit: 67.78 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 136-4; Profit: 135.88 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 71-39; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 27-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 14.23
(B) 2 * 14.23
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/25/2024

(B) San Diego +105 to win 1.43U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[packster77]

Cool thanks

[grecycle99]

You guys mind if I join?

Sure welcome

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/24/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 106-4; Profit: 67.78 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 136-4; Profit: 135.88 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 71-39; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 27-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 10 * 10.64
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/24/2024

(A) Boston -160 to win 1.07U

(A) Kansas City RL -117 to win 1.07U
(A) Milwaukee -171 to win 1.07U
(A) San Diego RL +108 to win 1.07U
Filtered

(A) Kansas City RL -115 to win 1.07U
5/2

No Play

[packster77]

You guys mind if I join?

[J.M. Disciple]

I always put the ml for dogs in here! but I never saw the rules for that one!

I don't actually know if the rule is +1.5 or not. I was thinking of other system's that play dogs ATS and favorite ML. But also this system was back tested by some of the same people, so that is why I was asking.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/23/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 106-4; Profit: 67.78 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 136-4; Profit: 135.88 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 71-39; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 27-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 16.34
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/23/2024

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

We rarely have a dog to bet on but dogs also ML? Not +1.5 RL?

I always put the ml for dogs in here! but I never saw the rules for that one!

[J.M. Disciple]

We rarely have a dog to bet on but dogs also ML? Not +1.5 RL?

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/22/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 104-4; Profit: 66.59 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 134-4; Profit: 134.69 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 70-38; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 16.34
(B) 2 * 16.34
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/22/2024

(B) Chicago Cubs +105 to win 1.64U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

How do you check pinnacle lines for games that have already started? Site I was looking at.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball...hups/#period:0

I use this

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/odds/?date=20240621

you go in settings and you can organise your sportsbook (so add pinnacle) you can have all closing lines

[RockLonemilk]

How do you check pinnacle lines for games that have already started? Site I was looking at.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball...hups/#period:0

Try this: https://www.oddsportal.com/baseball/usa/mlb/

Click any game and you can see what I presume is the closing line.

[J.M. Disciple]

How do you check pinnacle lines for games that have already started? Site I was looking at.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/mlb/matchups/#period:0

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/21/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 104-4; Profit: 66.59 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 134-4; Profit: 134.69 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 70-38; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 10.00
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/21/2024

(A) Chicago Cubs -145 to win 1u
(A) Detroit -171 to win 1U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/20/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 104-4; Profit: 66.59 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 134-4; Profit: 134.69 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 70-38; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A)
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/20/2024

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[RockLonemilk]

Oh, trust me, I've tracked every bet I've ever made and I study my results ad-nauseum, looking for where I went wrong and where I have edges, and adjusting accordingly. I also use a 1% unit size and and a 15% max per day, and I adjust my unit daily based on bankroll fluctuations. I know the risks of chase systems since I run an MLB away dog series chase system myself. As I've been learning to use labby lines, I've actually gone back and applied it to my dog chase system to see if I could improve my results, which have already been overwhelmingly positive.

[J.M. Disciple]

I guess what I meant is these system bets are no-brainers. If they qualify, you bet them. Since we have none today for this system, I have to do more work if I want to make any bets. I'm retired and don't like working.

Treating it as a business and scaling with 1% unit size or 0.5% unit size goes a long way compared to massive volume of bets. If you were betting $1,000 a game would you still be looking to bet on days where there are no plays? Also keep in mind if you are following the same labby method as is posted, I would urge you to go back and look at past results and bet sizes, as its not uncommon for bets to reach 10 units in size. Forcing plays only increases volatility which most people can't handle.

Maybe instead of looking for plays you can go back through this season and back test the labby method you are going to use to see what kind of variance you would have experienced this season.

[RockLonemilk]

I guess what I meant is these system bets are no-brainers. If they qualify, you bet them. Since we have none today for this system, I have to do more work if I want to make any bets. I'm retired and don't like working.

[J.M. Disciple]

I have mixed emotions about days like today. First, I'm happy because we've cleared all our lines with WINS, but second, I'm sad because I have to find other bets to make!

Why do you have to find other bets to make? Mental leak. If you treat it like a slot machine you'll get slot machine results.

[RockLonemilk]

I have mixed emotions about days like today. First, I'm happy because we've cleared all our lines with WINS, but second, I'm sad because I have to find other bets to make!

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/19/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 104-4; Profit: 66.59 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 134-4; Profit: 134.69 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 70-38; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A)
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/19/2024

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

LFG!!!!

[J.M. Disciple]

So, Atlanta won but you lost the -1.5 RL bet. Does that get scored as a loss and you bet again tomorrow, even though they actually won the game?

I bet the -1.0 RL on ATL and pushed, but since they won the game I'm just passing on the next 2 games in that series.

I've learned to trust the system. Passing on games is like saying don't give me a free $20. You are at peak profit right? So its only 1u risk if you are managing your line correctly.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/18/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 100-4; Profit: 61.53 units
Filtered System: 22-0; Profit: 37.58 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 129-4; Profit: 128.11 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 67-37; 15-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 25-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 2 * 18.00
(B) 2 * 18.00
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/18/2024

(A) Minnesota -160 to win 1.8U
(B) Atlanta -158 to win 1.8U

Watching NYY -144

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

So, Atlanta won but you lost the -1.5 RL bet. Does that get scored as a loss and you bet again tomorrow, even though they actually won the game?

I bet the -1.0 RL on ATL and pushed, but since they won the game I'm just passing on the next 2 games in that series.

yes it's a loss for the system on A bet and you bet them again on tuesday