College Bases 5/18

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tulane/Sam Hou, 1-1.

Interesting game to price: Small Conf Fav vs Bigger Conf Team that made field thru multiple upset wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dallas Baptist, up 4-1. Good team trying to take out top-seed Okla St.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dallas Baptist, up 4-1. Good team trying to take out top-seed Okla St.

Interesting bunt there. DBU asks guy hit Homer last AB to bunt. Nice bunt, trying to tack on Runs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2-1. Can Rider pull this out?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I’m gonna homer it and splash a little on Santa Clara +130.

Up 1-0 early. Good Luck on the play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I got +375. Any value in these upcoming later games? Shoot might as well keep posting winners

Ward, I'm glad you played that. Nice to see you get some bang out of that pick.

I know people will laugh at my logic. I know that NEern and Geo Mason used to play in the same basketball conference. I know NEern has an impressive record, but it wasn't a chasm.

Assuming that their recruiting bases are similar, I don't see how Geo Mason could be that big of a dog. Also, baseball is a game that plays to uncertainty. IE, unless there's just a gulf in class, things happen.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, I'll list an opinion. And this is just going against the grain on the line movement:

*TCU +200 (vs Arkansas)

...TCU has some pedigree in this tournament. Just not sure why they would be this big of a Dog.

Game postponed to Sunday, b/c of the delays. See what the line is for SUN, if you like TCU. Make sure you get a good price.

And see what the revised schedule looks like. Will TCU/Ark loser have to play a 2nd game on Sunday?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, marathon game Tenn/Clem. Into the 14th inn. Bullpens have to be toast.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Up 1-0 early. Good Luck on the play.

7-0, 7th inn.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very quick look at the Sunday card. My opinions are:

TCU +190 (at ARK)
Florida -250 (vs UConn). Off a Home Loss, they don't lose too many in Gainesville.

[ward106]

Too many games going cross eyed just looking at the 9:00 slate. Thanks for sharing.

[ward106]

Couple more winners nice picks sir. Anything in these afternoon games?

[mikmik]

Keep wm
coming

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Couple more winners nice picks sir. Anything in these afternoon games?

Thanks, Ward. Florida wins in style. TCU absolutely crushing right now.

*As I said above, these are just opinions. I'm not going to past-post and say that I had $$ on them.

FYI: Looks like South Point has the best odds on these games. 20-cent juice up to -195.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Couple more winners nice picks sir. Anything in these afternoon games?

Sorry, been travelling all day.

I really don't want to give an opinion on the OralRob/DallBapt game. A few notes to consider:
*BOTH of these teams feasted on weak schedules. Oral Rob, in particular, destroyed their conf foes.
*Earlier in the year, Dall Bapt swept a 3-gm series vs Oral Roberts. Just an FYI.

Lean to Dall Bapt. Just not sure about the -180.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Several MON games. Sorry, no opinions today. Just one game to note:

*Note how much the Ark/TCU line moved after recent results.

Ark was a highly-ranked team. Have to give the Hogs a look. Wonder what the pitching matchup looks like.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. We had some success on these.

Super-Regionals this weekend. See my other post: *Would be MUCH more interested in these games, if it was 20-cent juice.

I don't see a line on Alab/WakeFor. I wonder if Wake is such a prohibitive Favorite that they become hard to line.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit play = Oregon (gm1) -140.

...Both teams coming in hot. A few things point me toward the Ducks:
1) Eugene home field.
2) Stronger conf: class edge.
3) I referenced this last week. Oral Rob was swept in series at Dall Bapt earlier in the year.

Just think Oral Rob is hot right now. Think we catch a break on the price, GL.

[veriableodds]

1-unit play = Oregon (gm1) -140.

...Both teams coming in hot. A few things point me toward the Ducks:
1) Eugene home field.
2) Stronger conf: class edge.
3) I referenced this last week. Oral Rob was swept in series at Dall Bapt earlier in the year.

Just think Oral Rob is hot right now. Think we catch a break on the price, GL.

nice pick

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit play = Oregon (gm1) -140.

...Both teams coming in hot. A few things point me toward the Ducks:
1) Eugene home field.
2) Stronger conf: class edge.
3) I referenced this last week. Oral Rob was swept in series at Dall Bapt earlier in the year.

Just think Oral Rob is hot right now. Think we catch a break on the price, GL.

The Ducks come from WAY back. Were down 8-0, looked like this bet was dead.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: Wake For (gm1) -282

...I'm assuming that Lowder will start game 1. Forum notes (thx to Nash) show how dominate Wake has been, especially with Lowder.

In 16 starts, Lowder is 14-0 with a 1.77 ERA. K/BB ratio > 6.00. Will look for him to shine in this spot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: SO MISS (gm1) +161

Nice Home Dog, IMHO. Don't think this is the best Tenn team.

I expect SoMiss to start Tanner Hall. He has good stats, should give us a good shot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: Wake For (gm1) -282

...I'm assuming that Lowder will start game 1. Forum notes (thx to Nash) show how dominate Wake has been, especially with Lowder.

In 16 starts, Lowder is 14-0 with a 1.77 ERA. K/BB ratio > 6.00. Will look for him to shine in this spot.

Side/Total on this game has moved substantially.

Showcase game for Lowder. Let's see what this guy has. Looks like he should be ready to make some serious bank.

[mikmik]

My book has wake -400 now

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My book has wake -400 now

Yeah, I think you're way too late on this game now. A few things:

1) See my note on how bloated the Juice is on these games. Not even close to a reasonable straddle.
2) I take the line move to be a CONFIRMATION that Lowder is taking the mound. Somebody at the game surely has seen Lowder taking his warmup pitches.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Alab gets to him. Tied, 3-3.

[hehfest]

Bump. We had some success on these.

Super-Regionals this weekend. See my other post: *Would be MUCH more interested in these games, if it was 20-cent juice.

I don't see a line on Alab/WakeFor. I wonder if Wake is such a prohibitive Favorite that they become hard to line.

No. No lines will be allowed on Bama games because of the controversy over the large sums of $$$ bet on some of their games, etc. The only thing available at US books that I saw was Wake for future odds.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

No. No lines will be allowed on Bama games because of the controversy over the large sums of $$$ bet on some of their games, etc. The only thing available at US books that I saw was Wake for future odds.

OK. Forgot about that. Thing is...Who TF is going to tank a Super-Reg game?

Alab playing well today. Down, 4-3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lightning delay as of 3:17 p.m. CT.
...Wake trying to close it out, 5-4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, what a performance by reliever Sullivan. He records L8 outs...and gets SEVEN K's.

Wasn't easy. But Wake holds on to win, 5-4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Note on the KY/LSU game:

*I was scouting out KY as big dog. Now I see why:

...LSU top-P Skenes has eye-popping stats. 10/1 K/BB ratio! That's even better than Lowder from Wake.

No play for me on this game.

[mikmik]

Rain delay in Tenn game?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rain delay in Tenn game?

It was a Lightning delay. I was a little worried it was going to be cancelled.

Resumed now. Hope my 4-0 can hold.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Small play = ORAL ROBERTS (gm2) +124

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Small play = ORAL ROBERTS (gm2) +124

A few reasons for this:

1) They'll flip the batting order. Advantage of Batting Last here.
2) Oregon starter flamed out very early in Gm1. Duck bullpen more taxed in Gm1.
3) Oral Rob beat three good teams in the Regional, led 8-0 in Gm1. Have to feel like they can compete. Ducks a little flat off the historic comeback?