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Comment -
MLB Sweep System 2019
Official Season Series: 3-1
(A) 3-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(OAK -17.23 units)
Unofficial Season Series: 0-1
(A) 0-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(BAL -8.36 units)
V2 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
RESULTS
OFFICIAL
5/3 Kansas City Royals (.471, AWAY) vs Tigers (.480, HOME) Bet A Won! 3-4
5/3 Seattle Mariners (.506, AWAY) vs Indians (.503, HOME) Bet A Won! 1-2
RULES (including v2.0 and v3.0) - MLB Sweeps 2019 POST #3
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/6 Miami Marlins vs Cubs
5/9 Atlanta Braves vs Diamondbacks
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
5/13 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Diamondbacks
5/13 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
5/17 Cincinnati Reds vs Dodgers
5/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dodgers
5/24 Los Angeles Angels vs Rangers
5/27 Cincinnati Reds vs Pirates
6/3 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
6/7 Texas Rangers vs Athletics
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/17 Kansas City Royals vs Mariners
6/17 Toronto Blue Jays vs Angels
6/20 New York Yankees vs Astros
6/21 Colorado Rockies vs Dodgers
6/24 Cleveland Indians vs Royals
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs Braves
7/19 Chicago White Sox vs Rays
7/22 Toronto Blue Jays vs Indians
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/26 Miami Marlins vs RedsComment -
Happy KC and Sea covered, but I should have played a bit more aggressively for this one. Oh well, #TheMarathonContinues
@Betwithdaniel thanks a million!!!Comment -
Glad KC won with a miracle shot by Soler last night. I can't imagine trying to back a B bet with Homer Bailey on the mound.Comment -
Gents what did I tell you? Never had back to back losses on Official series. I split the 1 loss between the 2. Losses are so few and far between.sbrComment -
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JM
Champ MLB system bet for Monday May 6th:
Miami Marlins +1.5 Run Line - Unofficial betting series because RPI difference is too great
All the best,
The Champ Team
Comment -
MLB Sweep System 2019
Official Season Series: 3-1
(A) 3-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(OAK -17.23 units)
Unofficial Season Series: 0-1
(A) 0-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(BAL -8.36 units)
V2 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
PLAYS
*Please Read Filter Notes Before Betting*
UNOFFICIAL
5/6 Miami Marlins (.431, AWAY) vs Cubs (.553, HOME) Bet A +1.5 (+103 BetOnline 12:19PM ET on 5/6)
FILTER NOTES
- Top 3 rpi filter- If the team you are betting against is rated top 3 in the rpi then you should pass on this series. The Cubs are ranked #3 on the ESPN RPI chart.
- Worst road team filter- If the team you are betting on is a road team and in the bottom 10% of of losing road teams then you should pass on the series. Effectively he is saying the bottom 3 road teams. If they are the home team then it is okay to bet on them. The Marlins are the worst road team in MLB (3-9).
RULES (including v2.0 and v3.0) - MLB Sweeps 2019 POST #3
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/9 Atlanta Braves vs Diamondbacks
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
5/13 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Diamondbacks
5/13 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
5/17 Cincinnati Reds vs Dodgers
5/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dodgers
5/24 Los Angeles Angels vs Rangers
5/27 Cincinnati Reds vs Pirates
5/31 St Louis Cardinals vs Cubs
6/3 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
6/7 Texas Rangers vs Athletics
6/7 Miami Marlins vs Braves
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/17 Kansas City Royals vs Mariners
6/17 Toronto Blue Jays vs Angels
6/20 New York Yankees vs Astros
6/21 Colorado Rockies vs Dodgers
6/24 Cleveland Indians vs Royals
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs Braves
7/19 Chicago White Sox vs Rays
7/22 Toronto Blue Jays vs Indians
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/26 Miami Marlins vs RedsComment -
what is Pythagorean Betting System?Comment -
[QUOTE=19th Hole;28610256]~
JM
Here are my personal pick(s) for today based on the Pythagorean Betting System:
Pick #1: [MLB] 5* Star: Reds
Pick #2: [MLB] 2.5* Star: Nationals
Pick #3: [MLB] 1* Star: Blue Jays
All the best,
The Champ TeamComment -
MLB Sweep System 2019
Official Season Series: 3-1
(A) 3-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(OAK -17.23 units)
Unofficial Season Series: 1-1
(A) 1-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(BAL -8.36 units)
V2 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
RESULTS
UNOFFICIAL
5/6 Miami Marlins (.431, AWAY) vs Cubs (.553, HOME) Bet A Won! 6-5
PLAYS
V3 SERIES
5/7 Chicago Cubs (.543, HOME) vs Marlins (.433, AWAY) Bet A ML (-151 BetOnline 11:58AM ET on 5/7)
RULES (including v2.0 and v3.0) - MLB Sweeps 2019 POST #3
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/9 Atlanta Braves vs Diamondbacks
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
5/13 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Diamondbacks
5/13 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
5/17 Cincinnati Reds vs Dodgers
5/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dodgers
5/24 Los Angeles Angels vs Rangers
5/27 Cincinnati Reds vs Pirates
5/31 St Louis Cardinals vs Cubs
6/3 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
6/7 Texas Rangers vs Athletics
6/7 Miami Marlins vs Braves
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/17 Kansas City Royals vs Mariners
6/17 Toronto Blue Jays vs Angels
6/20 New York Yankees vs Astros
6/21 Colorado Rockies vs Dodgers
6/24 Cleveland Indians vs Royals
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs Braves
7/19 Chicago White Sox vs Rays
7/22 Toronto Blue Jays vs Indians
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/26 Miami Marlins vs RedsComment -
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The whole strategy here revolves around finding undervalued teams playing against overvalued teams. When a team that's losing far more than they should be losing is playing against a team that's winning far more than what they should be winning, it creates a powerful opportunity to exploit a possible inefficiency on the point spread.
The Pythagorean Expectation Theorem helps to identify those situations, but it alone does not tell the whole story because it does not take into account the strength of each team's opponents that they have faced so far.
So for example: If a team is losing far more than they should be losing, then that's an indicator that the team might be undervalued. What I do next is I then use my personally-devised to formula compare the results with the team's strength of schedule to see if the data makes sense.
After all, it's entirely possible that a team lost too much because they've just simply been playing difficult opponents all year long. If that's the case, then the Pythagorean Thereom results are highly misleading. Likewise, a team's results can certainly be inflated if they've had an easy SOS.
That's where I personally step in every single day to ensure that we are not just blindly taking undervalued teams playing against overvalued teams based on the Pythagorean Thereom alone, but that we are also doing so in conjunction and consideration of each team's strength of the opponents they've faced so far. Then and only then can we really understand the bigger picture.
I also consider many additional factors to ensure that we come away with the highest winning probability. This includes home vs away teams, favorites vs underdogs, in-conference vs out-of-conference games, point spread of certain margins, huge favorites vs heavy underdogs, taking the money line vs the point spread, buying points vs not buying points, 1st halves vs 2nd halves, taking the +1.5 or -1.5 run line or puck line vs the money line in MLB and NHL, injury factors, futures, severity of discrepancy between actual and expected win rates, and a combination of all these factors.
So keep in mind that any generic theorem should only be used as a starting point. This is exactly what I've done here. I am using The Pythagorean Thereom as a starting baseline to help determine undervalued and overvalued teams. However, I am always considering dozens of additional relevant factors to help ensure the highest level of accuracy in the selections I come up with, every single day.Comment -
JM
5/7/19
The Pythagorean Betting System:
[MLB] 4* Star: Texas Rangers
[MLB] 3* Star: Washington Nationals
[MLB] 2* Star: LA Angels
[MLB] 1* Star: Kansas City Royals
All the best,The Champ Team
Comment -
Keep’em coming!!!Comment -
MLB Sweep System 2019
Official Season Series: 3-1
(A) 3-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(OAK -17.23 units)
Unofficial Season Series: 1-1
(A) 1-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(BAL -8.36 units)
V2 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 1-0
(A) 1-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
RESULTS
V3 SERIES
5/7 Chicago Cubs (.543, HOME) vs Marlins (.433, AWAY) Bet A Won! 5-2
RULES (including v2.0 and v3.0) - MLB Sweeps 2019 POST #3
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/9 Atlanta Braves vs Diamondbacks
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
5/13 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Diamondbacks
5/13 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
5/17 Cincinnati Reds vs Dodgers
5/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dodgers
5/24 Los Angeles Angels vs Rangers
5/27 Cincinnati Reds vs Pirates
5/31 St Louis Cardinals vs Cubs
6/3 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
6/7 Texas Rangers vs Athletics
6/7 Miami Marlins vs Braves
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/17 Kansas City Royals vs Mariners
6/17 Toronto Blue Jays vs Angels
6/20 New York Yankees vs Astros
6/21 Colorado Rockies vs Dodgers
6/24 Cleveland Indians vs Royals
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs Braves
7/19 Chicago White Sox vs Rays
7/22 Toronto Blue Jays vs Indians
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/26 Miami Marlins vs RedsComment -
Nice hit! I wasn't planning on following the other systems but maybe I should reconsider.Comment -
If you remember reading a few pages back, when The Champ updated to the 2019 MLB system, he talked about the RPI filter taking a long time to develop early on in the season. It is also my strong suspicion based on my own personal testing that due to the evolving nature of RPI filters, good opportunities are sometimes missed early on if a good team starts the season badly for example, so it might make sense to play the V2 and V3 systems, but be extra careful as we get later on in the year. I am eager to recoup the losses so I want to jump on the bandwagon but they haven't performed anywhere near consistently as V1.
P.S. Atlanta Braves Moneyline A bet coming up in 12 hours time...Comment -
MLB Sweep System 2019
Official Season Series: 3-1
(A) 3-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(OAK -17.23 units)
Unofficial Season Series: 1-1
(A) 1-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-1
(D) 0-0
(BAL -8.36 units)
V2 Series: 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 1-0
(A) 1-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
PLAYS
*Please Read Filter Notes Before Betting*
UNOFFICIAL
5/9 Atlanta Braves (.490, AWAY) vs Diamondbacks (.550, HOME) Bet A ML (-103 BetOnline 10:33AM ET on 5/9)
FILTER NOTES
- Top 3 rpi filter- If the team you are betting against is rated top 3 in the rpi then you should pass on this series. The Diamondbacks are ranked #2 on the ESPN RPI chart.
- Alternate Run Line Rule- If the team you are betting on is favored by up to -115 odds then you should buy the +1.5 alternate run line. On BetOnline, the Braves are currently at -103 which means you should buy the +1.5 alternate run line (-225). The bet will be calculated via the closing odds.
RULES (including v2.0 and v3.0) - MLB Sweeps 2019 POST #3
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
5/13 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Diamondbacks
5/13 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
5/17 Cincinnati Reds vs Dodgers
5/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dodgers
5/24 Los Angeles Angels vs Rangers
5/27 Cincinnati Reds vs Pirates
5/31 St Louis Cardinals vs Cubs
6/3 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
6/7 Texas Rangers vs Athletics
6/7 Miami Marlins vs Braves
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/17 Kansas City Royals vs Mariners
6/17 Toronto Blue Jays vs Angels
6/20 New York Yankees vs Astros
6/21 Colorado Rockies vs Dodgers
6/24 Cleveland Indians vs Royals
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs Braves
7/19 Chicago White Sox vs Rays
7/22 Toronto Blue Jays vs Indians
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/16 Atlanta Braves vs Dodgers
8/16 Washington Nationals vs Brewers
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/26 Miami Marlins vs RedsComment -
The Braves are still a favorite on most books. A few books have started choosing the Diamondbacks as the favorite tonight. The line may dance around.Comment -
JM
The Champ's Pythagorean System Picks For 5/9
[MLB] 2* Star: Reds
Note: The higher the star number, the stronger the selection. Higher star ratings indicate that we may have a highly undervalued team playing against a highly overvalued team. An undervalued team is likely a team whose performance is better than their record indicates. An overvalued team is likely a team whose performance is worse than their record indicates. The reason is most likely due to certain teams being too unlucky or too lucky, thus creating either an inflated or deflated line due to an unfair and misleading public perception of their record that doesn't accurately represent the true nature of the team's actual strength.
Keep in mind that I expect there to be at least a pick on most days. However, there will be days when there are no picks. If there are no picks, then you will not receive an email for that day.
Note that my handicapping strategy revolves around using the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to identify teams that are undervalued playing against teams that are overvalued. When a team that's losing far more than they should be losing is playing against a team that's winning far more than what they should be winning, it creates a powerful opportunity to exploit a possible inefficiency on the point spread and money line odds.
I am rigorously testing various factors above to determine what could be the best possible combination to maximize profits using the Pythagorean Theorem approach. Here are just some of the factors I'm analyzing:
- Home vs Away teams
- Favorites vs Underdogs
- In-conference vs out-of-conference games
- Point spread of certain margins (for example: single vs double digit underdogs, single vs double digit favorites, similarly talented teams with spreads of -3 to +3, etc., heavy favorites and underdogs of at least +/-15)
- Taking the money line vs the point spread
- Buying points vs not buying points
- 1st halves vs 2nd halves
- Taking the +1.5 or -1.5 run line or puck line vs the money line in MLB and NHL
- A combination of any or all of the above factors (for example: away underdogs in out-of-conference games, double digit home favorites, etc.)
- Injury factors
- Futures
- The significance/severity in degrees of discrepancy between actual and expected win rates
- Each team's strength of schedule.
As of this right now, the default strategy is to wager on the point spread for all basketball and American football games, and to take the money line on all baseball and hockey selections.
Al the best,
The Champ Team
Comment -
From "JM":
"...please note that the Champ MLB system {A} bet for today on Atlanta has swapped from being a -120 money line favorite last night to an underdog as of right now. Therefore, this wager should be made on the +1.5 run line. And unless they turn into at least a -110 favorite on the closing line, Atlanta will be an unofficial bet."Comment -
Please, can you provide a link to your thread, then we can choose to follow you, or not? You are blocking my view of the MLB Sweep System.Comment -
The MLB Sweep is a renamed version of the "JM" / "Champ" MLB System from when the (not real) J Morrison sold it online. Some of us bought it and were meant to be notified of plays for life, which is no longer happening (and in my opinion is a breach of contract!) BUT the system was often sent out late and false stats about performance were kept. This thread, and previous year versions, was an attempt to be honest with results etc. As well as pick up on his mistakes. It is traditional to post announcements from "JM" if relevant for everybody. Post 3 is actually derived from an earlier email from JM and explains 2 additional variants called V2 and V3 here.
More recently out of the same group a "pythagorean" system was developed - by the way there are multiple versions of such a system! And several groups touting it! BUT it is different. I personally appreciate "19th Hole's" posting of the pythagorean system, but accept it mightt confuse some people. If we agree where to post it I'd accept an alternative place although it does make sense here too.Comment -
“BET365” was the ONLY sportsbook I could find offering +1.5 Run Line for Atlanta, all the others had them listed as a favorite. The Atlanta [A] bet should be a loss right?
From “JM” 5/10/19
At 9:31 AM PST earlier, I sent an email to alert you that the Champ MLB system {A} bet for Atlanta has swapped from being a -120 money line favorite the day before to an underdog, and that you should now make the {A} wager on the +1.5 run line. As it turned out: They needed every bit of that +1.5 for the win! I also stated that this will be an unofficial bet, and it will be recorded as such.
Comment -
That is very shady. Every other book has ATL at even or a slight favorite for most of the day and at closing as well and yet he grades the bet on the only book (Bet365) that had ATL as a dog which clearly was an error. ATL should have been a M/L bet period.Comment -
Yes I remembered just before the game that Pinnacle has a separate section for alternative run lines and "double dipped" so one win/one loss. But not sure I'd risk Atlanta tonight even at +1.5.
And those of us who have seen "JM" for many years know the things he does to make his numbers look better.
My biggest complaint right now though is his breach of contract. When I signed up it was for reminders/notice before each relevant play. I know they are often wrong, but I am grateful for this community so I don't have to fight him. I live outside the US so his service has always been legal for me, but hiss disregard for terms and conditions worries me.Last edited by Ergo19; 05-10-19, 09:13 AM.Comment -
I'm not his agent, but last few years, he doesn't seem to be playing loose with rules and win/loss interpretations IMHO
"At 9:31 AM PST earlier, I sent an email to alert you that the Champ MLB system {A} bet for Atlanta has swapped from being a -120 money line favorite the day before to an underdog, and that you should now make the {A} wager on the +1.5 run line. As it turned out: They needed every bit of that +1.5 for the win! I also stated that this will be an unofficial bet, and it will be recorded as such."Comment -
Official Record Date Team Result Bet {A} Odds Bet {B} Odds Bet {C} Odds Status Net 4/27/19 Tampa Bay WON! -185 Official 1 5/3/19 Kansas City WON! -150 Official 1 5/3/19 Seattle WON! -165 Official 1
Unofficial Record Date Team Result Bet {A} Odds Bet {B} Odds Bet {C} Odds Status Net 4/28/19 Orioles Lost -125 101 101 Unofficial -7.91 4/28/19 Athletics Lost -170 -105 -123 Unofficial, although the A&B bets were official -11.26 5/6/19 Miami WON! 110 Unofficial 1 5/9/19 Atlanta WON! -210 Unofficial 1 Comment
Still lots of units to go to cover the first losses though!
