Curious 500 Play Thread

[curious]

YTD 94-56 +32 units
Laying lots of heavy wood today. Just call me Jenna Jameson.

Tigers -120 1.2 to win 1 Loss -1.2
Cardinals -165 1.65 to win 1 Win +1
Twins +140 1 to win 1.4 Loss -1

Parlay: +200 1.5 to win 3 Loss -1.5
Yankees -255 Win
Phillies -275 Win
Braves -175 Lost

Twins/Angels OVER 8 1/2 -105 1.05 to win 1 Win +1
Indians/Blue Jays UNDER 9 -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1

5-3 -.7

YTD 99-59 +31.3 units

[curious]

Note on Thursday July 23

The system picked the Giants, but I just couldn't take them while staring at that 8 runs in 5 games vs 42 runs in 5 games Giants runs scored vs Braves run scored stat.

EVERY TIME I go against the system pick, the play loses.

Pretty amazing.

If I had not overANALyzed the picks we would have gone 6-2.

I won't change the system's picks any more.

[MexicanStallion]

Don't change your plays Curious. Trust your system. If it loses, no big deal. Easy for me to say on this end, but I think you have a solid system going, so just trust the plays. Keep up the good work.

[seanjohn007]

ya i have to agree with MS here. your one of the most thorough cappers in seen when it comes to stats and analysis. you created this system and it wins, no reason to go against it. how ever i understand if you didnt like it and decided not to play the game at all. but i prolly wouldnt go against the system from here on out. for what its worth i didnt think the giants had a shot either. keep up the good work buddy

[TheSwede]

Hi...

Boston Red Sox RL -1.5 +120, thoughts on that please

[cocknocker]

Keep hackin' curious. Alls that you want when the smoke clears is to hit 60% of your bets! It's a marathon, bro. If the criteria is there, then it gets played!

[Bogart45]

any plays today?

[curious]

any plays today?

i was busy today and did not have time to post them

[curious]

no posts for a while

I am extremely busy and will not be updating this thread for a while

[rake922]

busy with what bro?

[JustFlipACoin]

Oh no! This is bad news! I was making really good money off your plays! Please post some periodically when you have a chance. Please....

[curious]

the system completely broke down yesterday. i hated yesterday's card and for good reason.

today's card is worse.

i think what is going on is that some teams are different teams post all star break due to personnel changes, attitude adjustment, whatever.

I'll post the plays the system said to make today, you will see why I hate them:
Yankees laying 300 on Pettite at home? no way
Reds - different team last 2 weeks, no way I risk money on them
Rays - okay, if I have to
Twins - these turkeys are self destructing
Mariners - the Indians look like something is going on offensively
Mets - seriously?
Brewers - i'm not losing any more $ on these assholes
Rangers - okay, I kind of like this one
Rockies - i'm not laying 200 on De La Rosa, no way, no how
Tigers - okay, I like this one a little
Red Sox - no offense, team is in disarray, but they are plaing the orioles
Dodgers - i never win $ on these mother ****ers

ONe of the reasons I don't like most of these plays is that the lines just do not have any value in them. No way am I laying 300 on Pettitte at home against Gio Gonzalez.

If you twisted my arm and made me pick something I would say:
Rockies, BUT laying 200 on De La Rosa at home? Seriuosly? No way.
Tigers

Until I can figure out why the system broke down I'm not willing to risk everyone's money.

[BRyans]

Thanks for posting, and explaining.
Will play Colorado, and detroit.

[MexicanStallion]

Looks like it may have been a good call laying off the Yankees. I was considering it, but the chalk was too much.

[curious]

Now I am really confused

<sigh>

so yesterday was a total meltdown. sides went 1-6 only thing salvaged it was I did some totals that won. The card was so bad I didn't even post it.

Looked at today's card and thought the same thing.

BUT....
This was the card recommended by the system model:
Yankees
Reds
Rays
Tigers
Twins
Mariners
Mets
Brewers
Rangers
Red Sox
Dodgers

As I posted in another post no way I am laying 300 on Pettitte. So scratch the Yankees.

So far this card is 2-3 with 3 teams leading in their night games and 3 games scoreless or not started yet.

I'm going to scream if this card ends up 8-3.

I don't know what is wrong with me today, I should have played this card less the Yankees.

I just spent 3 days driving to Vegas, so maybe I just need to sleep.

[seanjohn007]

damn thats a tough drive. just take a couple days and rest before changing anything. it seems like there a couple days during every season where nothing makes sense, and this could be that time, i no it has been for me. if everything still in the shitter in a couple days then maybe you should start adjusting things. i no theres a lot of people on here, including me that appreciate what you do and the time you put into your systems and capping. so keep your head up and things will turn around

[Nickelicious]

These are crazy days indeed.... Up is down, down is up. Sitting out while tracking carefully makes sense.

But it goes against my blood. 30+ units going again on Sunday.

[JustFlipACoin]

hey curious, any plays for today? what are you up to in vegas?

[curious]

hey curious, any plays for today? what are you up to in vegas?

I'm going to turn my capping ability into a business.

2 plays today

Mariners +125 1 to win 1.25
Dodgers -130 1.3 to win 1

I also have the Astros but the game already started.

[themajormt]

Curious I posted a thread about getting data on 1st inning scores by team, anyway you can help assist? I think there could be some money to be made there...

[curious]

Curious I posted a thread about getting data on 1st inning scores by team, anyway you can help assist? I think there could be some money to be made there...

I analyzed 1st inning scores every way you can imagine, I could not find an exploitable edge.

But, there are several sources.

www.sportsdatabase.com - you can run queries to gather stats on first inning scores. inning runs[0] is the parameter you want.

www.mlb.com allows you to gather stats by first inning under the splits drop down

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp

Here is the full URL for the 1st inning for pitching.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=fi&timeSubFrame=2009&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

Here is the URL for batting:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=1&sitSplit=fi&timeSubFrame=2009&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

From these you can take number of runs scored and divide by games played which is also number of innings, since we did a split on first inning.

More important than average runs per inning in the first inning is frequency of scoring in the first inning. You can get that by going to www.sportsdatabase.com and running this query:
team and season=2009 and inning runs[0]>0

This will give you a W-L record, add the games together to get total number of games. Then divide that number by the total number of games played so far this season, that will give you the number of times the team has scored in the first inning.

You can do the same thing for runs allowed by using:
team and season=2009 and o:inning runs[0] > 0.

What you want to do is determine the frequency of runs scored and runs allowed for both teams and then match them up like so:
Home Team % of time first inning runs scored
Visitor Team % of time first inning runs allowed
Add these together and divide by 2

THen do the same thing for the Visitor team:
Visitor Team % of time first inning runs scored
Home Team % of time first inning runs allowed
Add these together and divide by 2

Now add the 2 numbers together. THat will give you the probability that these two teams score a run in the first inning.

[curious]

Another disaster

I'm going to turn my capping ability into a business.

2 plays today

Mariners +125 1 to win 1.25
Dodgers -130 1.3 to win 1

I also have the Astros but the game already started.

0-3

[TheSwede]

0-3

Yes .. Yesterday was ****ed up here to.... 0-6 -10 units for me

[Intuitive_Edge]

i think what is going on is that some teams are different teams post all star break due to personnel changes, attitude adjustment, whatever.

Definitely true.. having to reevaluate a lot of teams right now

[cmnjr24]

terrible day

Yesterday was very bad considering /boston let a rookie no name basically no hit them at fenway. This stuff seems fixed even though i know better than that Good Luck 2 Everyone Though

[JustFlipACoin]

yes yesterday hurt bad. damnit..

any picks for today curious?

[curious]

Monday July 27

Dodgers
Yankees
Rockies
Rangers
Brewers
CWS
Phillies
Angels
Orioles
Mariners
Pitt/SF UNDER
Cin/SD UNDER
Mil/WAS UNDER
CWS/MIN UNDER

Parlay
Giants
Red Sox
whoever else you really like, I'm probably going to go with the Rangers, still running stats to decide, will update the thread when I decide.

each game for 1 unit
the unders are for whatever line you can get, I will be using the closing line for grading purposes.

I do like the DBacks, the Athletics and the Pirates as possible upset candidates, so I built some parlays around them. Don't go crazy on it, but the value seems to be pretty solid.

[JustFlipACoin]

thanks for posting your plays I'll give them a shot. I have a local book that has wack run lines, He'll probably have boston and sf favoured by atleast two runs and still have juice on them, so i'll probably try Oakland and Pit.

thanks again and GL.

[curious]

Adding:
Houston/Cubs UNDER
Seattle/Toronto UNDER
LAA/CLE OVER
PHI/AZ OVER

I scratched the Orioles play got some info on the Orioles starter. He REALLY blows. Of course that means the Orioles are now the play of the year.

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck tonight Curious. I updated your request. I broke July down twice. You will see when you check out. Thanks for the support and continue your success.

[curious]

Adding:
Houston/Cubs UNDER Win +1
Seattle/Toronto UNDER Loss -1.1
LAA/CLE OVER Win _1
PHI/AZ OVER Loss -1.2

I scratched the Orioles play got some info on the Orioles starter. He REALLY blows. Of course that means the Orioles are now the play of the year.

These totals went 2-2 -.3 units

[curious]

Dodgers Loss -1
Yankees Win +1
Rockies Lost -1.5
Rangers Win +1
Brewers Lost -1.5
CWS Lost -1
Phillies Win +1
Angels Lost -1.5
Orioles Scratched
Mariners Lost -1.7
Pitt/SF UNDER Win +1
Cin/SD UNDER Lost -1.1
Mil/WAS UNDER Lost -1.1
CWS/MIN UNDER Win +1

Parlay Win +3
Giants
Red Sox
whoever else you really like, I'm probably going to go with the Rangers, still running stats to decide, will update the thread when I decide.

each game for 1 unit
the unders are for whatever line you can get, I will be using the closing line for grading purposes.

I do like the DBacks, the Athletics and the Pirates as possible upset candidates, so I built some parlays around them. Don't go crazy on it, but the value seems to be pretty solid.

8-8 -2.4 Units

[curious]

Tue July 28

Atlanta/Florida UNDER 8 1/2
Houston/Cubs UNDER
Philadelphia/Arizona UNDER 7 1/2
Toronto/Seattle UNDER 7 1/2
Cleveland/Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 1/2
Detroit / Texas OVER 9 1/2
San Diego / Cincinnatti OVER 9 1/2
Oakland / Boston OVER 9 1/2
Los Angeles Dodgers / St Louis UNDER 7 1/2
Pittsburgh / San Fransisco UNDER 8 1/2
Washington / Milwaukee OVER 9 1/2
Nationals
Cincinatti
Angels
Rockies
Houston
Kansas City
White Sox
Boston
Seattle

[curious]

Atlanta/Florida UNDER 8 1/2 Win +1
Houston/Cubs UNDER Lost -1.2
Philadelphia/Arizona UNDER 7 1/2 Win +1
Toronto/Seattle UNDER 7 1/2 Win +1
Cleveland/Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 1/2 Win +1
Detroit / Texas OVER 9 1/2 Win +1
San Diego / Cincinnatti OVER 9 1/2 Lost -1.2
Oakland / Boston OVER 9 1/2 Win +1
Los Angeles Dodgers / St Louis UNDER 7 1/2 Lost -1.2
Pittsburgh / San Fransisco UNDER 8 1/2 Win +1
Washington / Milwaukee OVER 9 1/2 Win +1
Nationals Win +1.9
Cincinatti Lost -1.3
Angels Win +1
Rockies Lost Lost -1.35
Houston Win +1
Kansas City Win +1.2
White Sox Lost -1
Boston Lost Lost -2.2
Seattle Win +1

13-7 + 4 units

[seanjohn007]

good job curious, looks like things are starting to turn around for you