Curious 500 Play Thread

[curious]

Okay, some crackhead in the Handicappers sub forum was talking smack to a bunch of us, acting like none of us know anything about anything. So, I mentioned my record on here over the last few years in NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB. The crackhead called me a liar and challenged me to 500 plays. But he put a bunch of rules on the challenge I don't agree with. LIke 1 unit per game, I don't flat bet so I'm not interested.

I'm posting my next 500 plays in this thread to shut this mother ****er up. I have to get the equivalent of 60% at -110. I'm not sure what that means to someone who doesn't flat bet but I'm sure I will blow that away, so who cares. Someone who cares about such things can do the math. If I dont' have 500 plays by the end of MLB season, I will move this thread to NCAAF when MLB ends.

Cardinals -110 1.1 to win 1
Phillies -165 3.3 to win 2
Tigers -140 4.2 to win 3
Red Sox RL -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Rays -160 4.8 to win 3
Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2
Twins -130 2.6 to win 2
Rockies -160 4.8 to win 3
Angels +120 1 to win 1.2
Rangers -120 2.4 to win 2

[therber2]

Goin for broke

Hey Curious. What is your betting criteria now? Did you change some stuff up?

Here's my card today. It is somewhere in between flat betting, weighted wagering. I did a little blurb on the Rangers picks just for you:

Cubs (previously posted) -103 (.5 unit)
BOS -1.5 -120 (.5 unit)
Cinci/NYM 9 -110 (1 unit)
TOR -109 (1 unit)
B-Jays/Bal-o's -105 (.5 unit)
OAK/TB u9 +110 (.5 unit)
FLA/ARI 7.5 +100 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (1 unit)
Rockies -145 (.5 units)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
LAA +117 (1 unit)
White Sox +112 (.5 unit)
Phillies -165 (2.5 units)
SDO/SFO 8.5 +105 (.5 units)
Texas -120 (2 units)
**Texas needs to win one today. Superior pitching, batting, and bullpen. Mariners have been playing well, but it is Friday now at home. Don't think that isn't a factor in this game.

[curious]

Hey Curious. What is your betting criteria now? Did you change some stuff up?

Here's my card today. It is somewhere in between flat betting, weighted wagering. I did a little blurb on the Rangers picks just for you:

Cubs (previously posted) -103 (.5 unit)
BOS -1.5 -120 (.5 unit)
Cinci/NYM 9 -110 (1 unit)
TOR -109 (1 unit)
B-Jays/Bal-o's -105 (.5 unit)
OAK/TB u9 +110 (.5 unit)
FLA/ARI 7.5 +100 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (1 unit)
Rockies -145 (.5 units)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
LAA +117 (1 unit)
White Sox +112 (.5 unit)
Phillies -165 (2.5 units)
SDO/SFO 8.5 +105 (.5 units)
Texas -120 (2 units)
**Texas needs to win one today. Superior pitching, batting, and bullpen. Mariners have been playing well, but it is Friday now at home. Don't think that isn't a factor in this game.

I am looking at the following:
$For/$Against at this streak
runs allowed / runs scored last 7 games
bullpen effectiveness last 7 games (or lack thereof)
$For/$Allowed last 12
$For/$Allowed at this line range home/away
starting pitcher vs this lineup
if too few at bats in starting pitcher vs lineup to matter then use starting pitcher last 5 starts

If all of this is more or less in agreement then that is a play. The number of units depends on how lopsided the above are between the two teams.

[therber2]

By the way, what is this talk now of the CFTC capping trades? First the uptick, then cap and trade, now this bullshit? People think these are actually good ideas? I believe the meeting took place on the day the news channels were swarmed with Michael Jackson fanatics. I couldn't wait for it all to blow over to see what shit would happen next. The best time to seize a shady opportunity is when some "important" prick dies and everyone's head is turned. I am fed up, and sold all of my commodity related holdings today. Basically just cash now.

[therber2]

I am looking at the following:
$For/$Against at this streak
runs allowed / runs scored last 7 games
bullpen effectiveness last 7 games (or lack thereof)
$For/$Allowed last 12
$For/$Allowed at this line range home/away
starting pitcher vs this lineup
if too few at bats in starting pitcher vs lineup to matter then use starting pitcher last 5 starts

If all of this is more or less in agreement then that is a play. The number of units depends on how lopsided the above are between the two teams.

Good to see you are tweaking it for the better here I think. Let's see if today is a bit better or if we just go broke. GL man.

[curious]

By the way, what is this talk now of the CFTC capping trades? First the uptick, then cap and trade, now this bullshit? People think these are actually good ideas? I believe the meeting took place on the day the news channels were swarmed with Michael Jackson fanatics. I couldn't wait for it all to blow over to see what shit would happen next. The best time to seize a shady opportunity is when some "important" prick dies and everyone's head is turned. I am fed up, and sold all of my commodity related holdings today. Basically just cash now.

As in all things when liberals are involved the goal sounds good but the actual policy they want to implement will have the opposite effect.

They want to make the commodity markets less susceptible to manipulation by speculators. The best way to do that is to increase margin requirements. What they want to do instead is limit the size/number of trades. They are using energy as their example. Only two problems with that, first energy is not a scarce resource, so I find it hard to believe that it can be manipulated. The global energy market is composed of BILLIONS of barrels of oil and TRILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas and TRILLIONS of tons of coal. Who can buy/sell enough contracts to matter in that market?

And utility companies that actually need to trade these contracts to hedge against price fluctuations won't be able to in sizes that matter and the energy market will become much more volatile than it is.

Anyway, whatever they do come up with there will be no empirical evidence, the policy will be total nonsense, but it will "sound good" to the dogooders in ObamaManiaLand.

If the policies are too draconian all that will happen is that the commodities futures market will move to London or Berlin or Moscow or Peking.

Here is what the rule changes should be.
For companies that are in a given industry where the price of the commodity effects their ability to compete then they should be able to trade contracts some % above the amount of that commodity that they actually use. Say 50%. So, an oil refinery that processes 500,000 bbl of oil should be able to trade 750,000 bbl worth of contracts on each side, 750,000 bbl worth of puts and 750,000 bbl worth of calls. For these "consumers" of commodities and for suppliers who are hedging against a price drop the margin requirements should be raised slightly above where they are now to ensure that the companies don't engage in gambling in the name of hedging as utility companies in the past have done.

For anyone else, the margin requirements should be very high, then you don't have to have a cap on the volume. You want to control $1 billion worth of oil? Fine, put up $500 million in cash, we don't take checks, oh we do take American Express because we want the miles.

[therber2]

I think the CFTC and Obama mafia is going more for an illogical approach that the public will applaud based on its cover....as usual. Folks who approve this must like getting blasted in the ass and taken for a ride on a daily basis. I don't understand. I think your idea would infuriate our environmentalist friends so it can't be done that way. It is funny they use oil as the example for speculation; holy shit. This is the CfvckinFTC. Not emissions control.

[curious]

I think the CFTC and Obama mafia is going more for an illogical approach that the public will applaud based on its cover....as usual. Folks who approve this must like getting blasted in the ass and taken for a ride on a daily basis. I don't understand. I think your idea would infuriate our environmentalist friends so it can't be done that way. It is funny they use oil as the example for speculation; holy shit. This is the CfvckinFTC. Not emissions control.

The "environmentalists", not the idiots who follow the church of environmentalism, but the high priests who mislead the followers, are totalitarians hiding behind a veil of altruism.

Their lies sound so wonderful. But their policies have as their aim to control the means of production of EVERYTHING. They want to totally cripple the American industrial base. This process has already started. Put in place policies that bankrupt American companies and then nationalize them.

The communists, er environmentalists, cannot win at the ballot box and they cannot win through running their own businesses, so they want to win through lies and theft.

They claim that everything is scarce. Food is scarce, water is scarce, energy is scarce. All of these statements are bold faced lies. They work because they are said in a context of "oooh, we are so wonderful we want to save food so we can feed the starving children". They then put in policies that control the production of these items, creating a contrived scarcity, then they pass more policies to give the now scarce resources to those who are "deserving". Meanwhile they exempt themselves from these controls.

The conservatives have only themselves to blame for this nonsense. We let the liberals/communists write the history books so people are raised believing this stupidity. And, economics, science, and REAL environmentalism are not taught in elementary/high school so most people don't have the tools they need to figure these things out for themselves.

A properly educated populace would treat these people as cartoon characters or put them in a mental home somewhere for being totally delusional instead of giving them political power.

[therber2]

Ehh. I need a beer and maybe a cigarette too. Glad I'm out of the stocks right now. Not sure when I'll get back into anything. I'm thinking let the attack on commodities happen. It might drag down oil, and a thing I like a lot: KMP (Kinder Morgan Pipeline). If that things gets dragged down in price; I'm swapping my money over from the old stuff. In the meantime, I'm waiting on ABR (Arbor realty) to get into the $1.00-$1.35 zone then buy up a pretty good amount of shares. This is my favorite roller coaster stock.

There are NO real investments right now. You can only pick things off, or make wagers with options. This is the most pathetic market I've ever seen.

[Oilcanada]

Good luck on the 500 challenge curious.
Glad you will be posting picks.

regards

[OtherSide]

Go Get em Curious.Show him whos boss!
If that is you in your pic you need to call Geico ASAP

[obamaismyuncle]

Okay, some crackhead in the Handicappers sub forum was talking smack to a bunch of us, acting like none of us know anything about anything. So, I mentioned my record on here over the last few years in NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB. The crackhead called me a liar and challenged me to 500 plays. But he put a bunch of rules on the challenge I don't agree with. LIke 1 unit per game, I don't flat bet so I'm not interested.

I'm posting my next 500 plays in this thread to shut this mother ****er up. I have to get the equivalent of 60% at -110. I'm not sure what that means to someone who doesn't flat bet but I'm sure I will blow that away, so who cares. Someone who cares about such things can do the math. If I dont' have 500 plays by the end of MLB season, I will move this thread to NCAAF when MLB ends.

Cardinals -110 1.1 to win 1
Phillies -165 3.3 to win 2
Tigers -140 4.2 to win 3
Red Sox RL -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Rays -160 4.8 to win 3
Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2
Twins -130 2.6 to win 2
Rockies -160 4.8 to win 3
Angels +120 1 to win 1.2
Rangers -120 2.4 to win 2

Love the picks today, great value in the Angels tonight, may make a play on them later.

[curious]

Ehh. I need a beer and maybe a cigarette too. Glad I'm out of the stocks right now. Not sure when I'll get back into anything. I'm thinking let the attack on commodities happen. It might drag down oil, and a thing I like a lot: KMP (Kinder Morgan Pipeline). If that things gets dragged down in price; I'm swapping my money over from the old stuff. In the meantime, I'm waiting on ABR (Arbor realty) to get into the $1.00-$1.35 zone then buy up a pretty good amount of shares. This is my favorite roller coaster stock.

There are NO real investments right now. You can only pick things off, or make wagers with options. This is the most pathetic market I've ever seen.

Implied volatility is still high while actual volatility is pretty calm right now. It is a good time to sell options.

Here is something I do sometimes. Sell an in the money put and call on the same underlying for the next expiration date out. As the price moves up or down adjust the position so that you are buying back the contract that became nearly worthless and selling more of the new in the money strike price and cover the leg that is moving against you, selling more contracts that are now slightly in the money.

If the stock price stays the same you clean up. If it wiggles a lot but ends up within the range covered by the premiums you have collected you clean up. If it breaks open in the up or down direction you just buy back the worthless leg and close out the leg that went against you for a small loss.

Only way you can lose big is if their is a gap up or a gap down that moves beyond the range covered by the premium you collected. I mean a big gap.

Let's say a stock is at $78. You sell the $80 call and the $80 put for a premium in your pocket of $10.00. You are now protected between $70 and $90. If the stock moves to $87 or so you now buy back the $80 put for under a buck. You now sell the $90 put, for say $8. You also sell the $85 call for say $9. Now you have $27 premium, you are upside down in the $80 call, closed out of the $80 put and have an $85 call and a $90 put working. If the stock closes at $87 at expiration you net around $17. That is a 22% return in less than one month.

In a market like this you can do this day in and day out.

You hedge against the Monday morning 20% +- SURPRISE by buying options on futures contracts 20% above and below where the Index is that most closely tracks that stock. usually being this far away from the market an option like that will cost a few pennies.

[curious]

Cardinals -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
Phillies -165 3.3 to win 2 Win +2
Tigers -140 4.2 to win 3 Win +3
Red Sox RL -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 Lost -2.2
Rays -160 4.8 to win 3 Win +3
Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2 Win +2
Twins -130 2.6 to win 2 Win +2
Rockies -160 4.8 to win 3 Lost -4.8
Angels +120 1 to win 1.2 Win +1.2
Rangers -120 2.4 to win 2 Win +2

Cardinals win an easy one.

[therber2]

Okay, some crackhead in the Handicappers sub forum was talking smack to a bunch of us, acting like none of us know anything about anything. So, I mentioned my record on here over the last few years in NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB. The crackhead called me a liar and challenged me to 500 plays. But he put a bunch of rules on the challenge I don't agree with. LIke 1 unit per game, I don't flat bet so I'm not interested.

I'm posting my next 500 plays in this thread to shut this mother ****er up. I have to get the equivalent of 60% at -110. I'm not sure what that means to someone who doesn't flat bet but I'm sure I will blow that away, so who cares. Someone who cares about such things can do the math. If I dont' have 500 plays by the end of MLB season, I will move this thread to NCAAF when MLB ends.

Cardinals -110 1.1 to win 1
Phillies -165 3.3 to win 2
Tigers -140 4.2 to win 3
Red Sox RL -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Rays -160 4.8 to win 3
Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2
Twins -130 2.6 to win 2
Rockies -160 4.8 to win 3
Angels +120 1 to win 1.2
Rangers -120 2.4 to win 2

Just realized that posting my card right after this might make it appear as if I am the crackhead. Just wanted to clear that up; I'm not THE crackhead.
Don't know who the crackhead is. After tonight I may certainly feel like a crackhead though. Just had a day where a card like this went something like 9-3. My worst day.

Curious, I am almost 90% sure I'm going to make a move on ABR at 1.20 or so. Mind taking a look at it, and tell me what you think? It is at 1.50 close today. This will be a quick buy and sell if it reaches my price. Thanks brutha.

[curious]

Just realized that posting my card right after this might make it appear as if I am the crackhead. Just wanted to clear that up; I'm not THE crackhead.
Don't know who the crackhead is. After tonight I may certainly feel like a crackhead though. Just had a day where a card like this went something like 9-3. My worst day.

Curious, I am almost 90% sure I'm going to make a move on ABR at 1.20 or so. Mind taking a look at it, and tell me what you think? It is at 1.50 close today. This will be a quick buy and sell if it reaches my price. Thanks brutha.

I don't trade stocks like that, my opinion wouldn't be worth much.

I can tell you why the market has tanked so much in the past few weeks. The Fed is deflating the money supply. OUCH. Bernake finally realized that endlessly inflating the money supply will give us the Wiemar Republic in 1932. If the Fed is totally committed to this approach and continues deflating the money supply over a long period of time it will cause a recession lasting for years. Look at the 14 year recession that Reagan inherited in 1980.

[curious]

Cardinals -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
Phillies -165 3.3 to win 2 Win +2
Tigers -140 4.2 to win 3 Win +3
Red Sox RL -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 Lost -2.2
Rays -160 4.8 to win 3 Win +3
Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2 Win +2
Twins -130 2.6 to win 2 Win +2
Rockies -160 4.8 to win 3 Lost -4.8
Angels +120 1 to win 1.2 Win +1.2
Rangers -120 2.4 to win 2 Win +2

Summary 8-2 +9.2 Units

[oda11]

Wow, curious great night! Congrats!


Rockies and Sox were a big disappointment....

[curious]

Wow, curious great night! Congrats!


Rockies and Sox were a big disappointment....

I don't think I have ever won a RL -1 1/2 bet.

Feels good to be back in the winning column.

[therber2]

Hey Curious. What is your betting criteria now? Did you change some stuff up?

Here's my card today. It is somewhere in between flat betting, weighted wagering. I did a little blurb on the Rangers picks just for you:
Cubs -103 (.5 unit)
BOS -1.5 -120 (.5 unit)
Cinci/NYM 9 -110 (1 unit)
TOR -109 (1 unit)
B-Jays/Bal-o's -105 (.5 unit)
OAK/TB u9 +110 (.5 unit)
FLA/ARI 7.5 +100 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (1 unit)
Rockies -145 (.5 units)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
LAA +117 (1 unit)
White Sox +112 (.5 unit)
Phillies -165 (2.5 units)
SDO/SFO 8.5 +105 (.5 units)
Texas -120 (2 units)
**Texas needs to win one today. Superior pitching, batting, and bullpen. Mariners have been playing well, but it is Friday now at home. Don't think that isn't a factor in this game.

10-5 +7.88 units

Good day for the both of us. Curious try out that "setting" you've got now, and let's see if it keeps on working. I think you're onto something. Not just saying the cause you came out on top either. I decided to post in here because our cards were similar. Good work today man.

No problem with the stocks. I can't honestly say I have a clue what is going on either.

[curious]

Sat July 11 2009 Plays YTD 10-2 +9.3 Units

YTD 10-2 +9.3 Units (for the purposes of the 500 play challenge)

Yesterday was GREAT. Let's see what we can do today:

Rays -175 3.5 to win 2 Lost -3.5
Blue Jays -110 1.1 to win 1 Lost -1
Dodgers -110 2.2 to win 2 Lost -2.2
Tigers -120 2.4 to win 2 Lost -2.4
Astros -155 1.55 to win 1 Lost -1.55
White Sox +100 2 to win 2 Win +2
Rockies -120 1.2 to win 1 Lost -1.2
Padres/Giants UNDER 8 -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1

Adding:
Red Sox -165 1.65 to win 1 Win +1
Marlins +120 1 to win 1.2 Lost -1

Adding:
Phillies RL -1 -190 1.9 to win 1 Push
Giants RL -1 -182 1.82 to win 1 Push

NOTE** For those of you who cannot get RL -1, you can create it yourself by playing the ML and the RL -1 1/2. The ML bet has to be to win the amount risked on the RL bet. So, for the Phillies you would do:
PHI ML 3 to win 1.2, and
PHI RL -1 1/2 -120 1.2 to win 1.
This ends up being 4.2 to win 2.2.
For the Giants you would do
SFO ML -240 2.88 to win 1.2, and
SFO RL -1 1/2 -120 1.2 to win 1.
This ends up being 4.08 to win 2.2.
I am listing these combined plays as RL -1 to keep the bookkeeping simpler.

[chubber911]

Nice work on last nights picks. We may have different opinions, but I'm not one of the crackheads that doubts you. BOL.

[Bogart45]

Wow, we must have a very similar system. My plays are very similar to yours the 2nd day in a row, TB, Dodgers, Hou, Tor, Florida, Det, and then +Sea. GL today.

[curious]

Wow, we must have a very similar system. My plays are very similar to yours the 2nd day in a row, TB, Dodgers, Hou, Tor, Florida, Det, and then +Sea. GL today.

I called the Rangers/Mariners game too close to call. Both teams do very well in the streak situation. Rangers RS-RA is way above Mariners which is negative. Millwood absolutely blows on the road, Washburn is a totally different Pitcher at home (for the better).

But the RAngers absolutely light up left handed pitching.

So, I don't see an edge here.

I also like these teams but don't want to pay the vig:
Phillies
Giants

Maybe I should put them in a parlay

[curious]

Nice work on last nights picks. We may have different opinions, but I'm not one of the crackheads that doubts you. BOL.

I call everybody crackhead. you can't worry about that. I just read an argument in software programming forum one time where one programmer called another programmer "Captain Crackhead" and I always thought that was hysterical.

I was at the movie theatre the other night and didn't recognize any of the movie titles so I asked some teenagers who were standing near the ticket line "Hey, did you crackheads just come out of the movie, what movie did you see"? And they got all indignant and said "CRACKHEADS"? It was pretty funny.

[Bogart45]

Very good points. I can tell your analysis goes deeper than mine.

I saw above a description of how you make picks. Can I ask how you make your o/u selections?

I called the Rangers/Mariners game too close to call. Both teams do very well in the streak situation. Rangers RS-RA is way above Mariners which is negative. Millwood absolutely blows on the road, Washburn is a totally different Pitcher at home (for the better).

But the RAngers absolutely light up left handed pitching.

So, I don't see an edge here.

I also like these teams but don't want to pay the vig:
Phillies
Giants

Maybe I should put them in a parlay

[curious]

Very good points. I can tell your analysis goes deeper than mine.

I saw above a description of how you make picks. Can I ask how you make your o/u selections?

Totals have been very tough this year. The last two years totals were so easy. Especially after the alll star break. In those seasons I just used the advanced matchup reports like are found on www.thespread.com. They highlight lopsided % in the O/U. If I saw multiple highlights of either the O or the U in both teams and the starting pitcher / opposing lineup matchup looked good and the bullpen performance matched the O/U pick then I went with it. This approach was amazing. >70% on totals two years in a row.

This year is a totally different story. The trends don't work at all.

So, I'm not playing many totals this year. When I do it is because something is really jumping off the page. Like these facts on the Giants/Padres game:
Giants U at home is +$ Won no matter who they play
Matt Cain's nickname is "The Undertaker"
Padres don't score
Padres trotting out a dude just up from the minors. He was killing 'em in AAA and AA ball. And he has been in the majors before so he won't suffer from the "golly gee wizz Auntie Em I am in the big leagues, oooo my stomach" butterflies. Teams usually have trouble vs a pitcher they have never seen.

[therber2]

Totals have been very tough this year. The last two years totals were so easy. Especially after the alll star break. In those seasons I just used the advanced matchup reports like are found on www.thespread.com. They highlight lopsided % in the O/U. If I saw multiple highlights of either the O or the U in both teams and the starting pitcher / opposing lineup matchup looked good and the bullpen performance matched the O/U pick then I went with it. This approach was amazing. >70% on totals two years in a row.

This year is a totally different story. The trends don't work at all.

So, I'm not playing many totals this year. When I do it is because something is really jumping off the page. Like these facts on the Giants/Padres game:
Giants U at home is +$ Won no matter who they play
Matt Cain's nickname is "The Undertaker"
Padres don't score
Padres trotting out a dude just up from the minors. He was killing 'em in AAA and AA ball. And he has been in the majors before so he won't suffer from the "golly gee wizz Auntie Em I am in the big leagues, oooo my stomach" butterflies. Teams usually have trouble vs a pitcher they have never seen.

Good read on the under man

[curious]

Geezuz what a massacre

3-7-2 -8.85

YTD 13-9-2 +.45

Well my 0-N record on the Runline continues. I have never won a RL -1 or RL -1 1/2 play. Amazing.

I screwed up one of the plays. Put the Astros down instead of the Angels. Actually bet the Angels but listed the Astros instead.

Phillies and Giants were both better ML plays but I just can't lay that much wood. Guess I'll have to give Jenna Jameson a call and ask her how she lays big wood.

[chubber911]

I'm the same as you, I never win -1.5 RL wagers. I always feel like an idiot when I take home team on -1.5 and they win by 1.

[therber2]

My opinion is -1.5 are more worth it than +1.5 runlines. I cashed the Pirates +1.5 today, but that was a scenario where I truly felt the game would be tight. Ask yourself though: how often has the +1.5 paid off. I feel like more of an idiot playing the +runline and it only coming in handy 3% of the time than I do missing the -1.5. I don't like to use either all that much however -1.5's are great when you think one team will smoke the other, but the line is -200 or more. Even then I'll go smaller with the units since the rough statisic for a team winning by more than 1 is something like 33% (might be wrong on that).

Curious what happened today man. You had a great write up on SDO/SFO under. Did you change anything? I say reduce the card, and try to put in more of those write ups. I think that you've got just as good a grip on the non scientific approach if not better.

Good luck tomorrow.

[chubber911]

therber2, you say it yourself with how often a team wins by more than 1 run. If an underdog has a good fighting chance, and it's fairly common for teams to win by only 1 run (especially home teams), that can make it quite profitable to put +1.5 on the underdog.

[curious]

My opinion is -1.5 are more worth it than +1.5 runlines. I cashed the Pirates +1.5 today, but that was a scenario where I truly felt the game would be tight. Ask yourself though: how often has the +1.5 paid off. I feel like more of an idiot playing the +runline and it only coming in handy 3% of the time than I do missing the -1.5. I don't like to use either all that much however -1.5's are great when you think one team will smoke the other, but the line is -200 or more. Even then I'll go smaller with the units since the rough statisic for a team winning by more than 1 is something like 33% (might be wrong on that).

Curious what happened today man. You had a great write up on SDO/SFO under. Did you change anything? I say reduce the card, and try to put in more of those write ups. I think that you've got just as good a grip on the non scientific approach if not better.

Good luck tomorrow.

I didn't change anything.

Several of these games were too close to call and instead of passing on them I overANALyzed the game. I also screwed up on the Phillies and Giants, I know better than to play the RL, but the lines were so outrageous I just couldn't lay that much wood. At least I did the RL -1 and got 2 pushes instead of the RL -1 1/2. Also I second guessed my system on two plays that turned winners into losers. The system said take the A's and the Nationals but I overANALyzed the games and found reasons to go against them instead.

Anyway, back to basics.

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

I didn't change anything.

Several of these games were too close to call and instead of passing on them I overANALyzed the game. I also screwed up on the Phillies and Giants, I know better than to play the RL, but the lines were so outrageous I just couldn't lay that much wood. At least I did the RL -1 and got 2 pushes instead of the RL -1 1/2. Also I second guessed my system on two plays that turned winners into losers. The system said take the A's and the Nationals but I overANALyzed the games and found reasons to go against them instead.

Anyway, back to basics.

[therber2]

I didn't change anything.

Several of these games were too close to call and instead of passing on them I overANALyzed the game. I also screwed up on the Phillies and Giants, I know better than to play the RL, but the lines were so outrageous I just couldn't lay that much wood. At least I did the RL -1 and got 2 pushes instead of the RL -1 1/2. Also I second guessed my system on two plays that turned winners into losers. The system said take the A's and the Nationals but I overANALyzed the games and found reasons to go against them instead.

Anyway, back to basics.

Less anal please.
Seriously though, I think you do better if you look at a whole list of games for the day through the glasses you used with the SFO/SDG under. You had some blurb in there saying something outlandish. I think it was "batters chicken out when they play a guy with the name "Undertaker" and they've never seen him before." I picked Texas a while back I remember because it was Friday at home for Seattle. They played hard aallll week long, and wanted to go home to bang their boyfriends; meanwhile the game was actually somewhat important for Texas. These things are nuts but sometimes the best edge you can get.

I'd run through those thoughts first, and THEN run the system check. I agree, I think that you go wrong when you do it in the reverse.

Here is my card as of now...might just leave it at this:
CWS +100 (.5 unit)
CWS/MIN 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
TB -186 (1 unit)
TB/OAK 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
KC Royals +1.5 +120 (.5 units)
NYY -135 (.5 units)
ATL +130 (.5 units)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
PIT +1.5 -120 (.5 units)
PIT/PHI 9 -115 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (.5 units)
TEX +135 (.5 units)