Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 7/7/09

[cocknocker]

Ah yes, for today's action I have to roll with the Royals again, as the public is all over my squad, the Pales, 86% to 14%. I have RLM working for me AND recent form (last 3 games) advantages in every statistical category, well never mind..I'll just show the formula for this one:

Starting Pitcher WHIP last 3 games

KC 1.05
CWS 1.37

Advantage Royals

Opening Line

KC+212
CWS-230

Power Ranking

KC+135*
CWS-135

Advantage Royals as the power ranking shows that they are not as big an underdog as th line would indicate. With only 14% of bettors on their side, the line is only above the opening line on ONE BOOK (Skybook). On all the other books te line has gonein reverse

Batting average ast 3 games

KC .300
CWS .277

Advantage Royals

Slugging% last 3 games

KC .480
CWS .340

Advantage Royals

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

KC 0.549
CWS 1.585

Advantage Royals

My pick: Royals+212

***************************************

Anyway on to the rest...

The Mets automatically qualify for a play being a home dog to my FAVORITE team (Dodgers). Still kind of hard to believe that the Mets are home dogs. I guess that's what happens when you hit a rough streak. Despite everything that is right with the Dodgers and what is wrong with the Mets, the Metropolitans sholud NOT be a home dog. I will also make a small wager, but enough to win a half a dime on the Mets RRL. The Mets haven't won a game by 2 runs in 11 tries. It would be a nice little sweetener on top if they should perform as expected tonight.

Mets+126
Mets-1.5 +240 RRL

The Twins are hot as shit opening this series with the Yankees, and get to loosen up CC's shoestrings tonight with balls hit back up the middle on his ass. The last time that he faced the Twins in the Dome was back in '07, so none of that shit has to do with today's game. All of the stats are about equal from the pitchers and hitting all the way to the bullpens. I will roll with the home dogs to keep streaking and jump all over the Yanks. I made a bet on this series taking the Twins +110 as well.

Twinkles+120

You all can look forward to me playing the O's 2X later on tonight as Bedard makes his return from injury against his old team after throwing only 54 pitches in a simulated game. The O's got shut out last night making them a great play for today as this is a great spot for them. Joe McLovin the Mariners and can smell the chicken roasting. Early numbers show a 81% of joes on the mariners. Of course i am going the other way on this one, and doubling up what I laid yesterday on the O-Hoes

O-Hoes+127 2X (Doubling up)


So there are my 4 games. I wanted to play the Cubs but I smelled the chicken cooking and backed away from it. The Braves haven't won a game by 2 runs in 4 tries now, and I smell a reversal of fortune in that game as you already know what happens when teams win one of those good old nationally televised games. When the lights are off again, they get stomped in the nuts. Good luck ladies and gentlemen as always

[GreatDanes52]

CK, Aren't the Royals playing Detroit?.... I really like the Mets pick I think Pelfreys gonna pitch a gem today, and the Mets are long overdue for not only a win but a win by two or more runs. Best of luck today

[therber2]

It is KC and DET right? Now you've got me confused; regardless KC has a very nice edge today as a big dog. Chen's has been doing slightly better than Verlander in the past 3. The stat matchup is pretty much what you posted. KC is far superior across the board in the last 3. Not exactly sure why this line is where it is. GL today.

[solobass]

Yesterday calling all games (minus the yankees/jays game for family time) 7-3 on the day. When I got up today and got in the shower my faucet was pouring money and that is the real mad flow.

Since calling all games my record is 28-27 50.9%. All of you know here how superstitious I am with the full moon so I am definitely dialing it back on the amount laid on plays today.

[Panekkkk]

Anybody else suddenly hungry for chicken ... ?

[solobass]

also non gambling related annoyance bulletin.......

tony montana never wore a scarface t-shirt.......

[cocknocker]

Oh my, the line is going in hyper speed reverse on the Cubs and the steam is getting harder and harder hard to ignore. The Braves are now -114 after starting off as the dog in this matchup.

Dempster has a sterling home record, and the Cubbos are suddenly hot. I have no idea why this line isgoing in reverse but it is.I will have to watch this RLM during the day. Joe McLovin smells chicken roasting and is all over the Cubbos...I may end up adding this play in if this shit continues...

Onto other news

The Blue Birds are going with a rook named Rzepczynski today who was -5 with a 2.66 era in AAA, so be advised boys who are loading up on the Rays today. I don't like going against call-ups. They have never been seen before, and that is usually good enough to get through the lineup two times..

[Panekkkk]

I am really liking the NATS/ROCKIES UNDER 10. Zimmerman and Hammel are both on top of their game. Hammel's numbers have been trending downards heavily since starting the season, and Zimmerman is the real ****ing deal. 10 is way too high for two pitchers peaking against teams that have never seen them b4.

[Panekkkk]

Agreed CK, this Blue Birds rookie has some impressive numbers. He sizzled in double A then went 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 2 games in triple A. My money would be on the Rays but I hate going against newcomers because it only ever goes 2 ways, lights out or blow out.

[solobass]

so true panekkkk i am relying on pythagorean expectation more than anything on that matchup.

[cocknocker]

Yeah, Panekkk. It's not a good idea to place your money with joe mclovin. And the Rays are garnering a lot of attention today in Vegas from my ears on the ground. The Mariners and the White Sox are the favorite play with the joes out there today. The Pales are in almost EVERY parlay from what I hear. I think folks will be in for a rude awakening. A little smart money is being placed on the Blue Birds.

[solobass]

CK i laid the wood on the braves about 20 mins ago. the cubbies are great @ home but my indicators point to a braves victory. i got the braves @ -112.

[solobass]

alright gentleman here we go.

CIN +120
LAD -137
PIT -105
ATL-112 (hopefully the offense puts up some runs for Vazquez)
MIL-143 (while i am calling this game, the price is too steep for the brew crew here. all signs point to a win for them but my numbers are much closer than what the oddsmakers have them installed as.)
WAS+120
ARI-155 (again, no real value here my numbers are closer than what the odds are indicating)
FLA-130
TB-200 (read everyone's comments on this game, yes i capped it, yes i think the rays will win but i am not putting a dime on this one either way)
DET-200 (2 teams with very high scores in my model today, but the tigers are a good parlay partner today)
BOS-250 (Oakland is a shammockery out on the field)
CWS-150
MIN+110 (nearly identical scores in my model, more of a tossup game than anything)
LAA-170
SEA-140 (look, you and i both know how much the orioles blow on the road and here they are out west)

best of luck today everyone!

[solobass]

alright alright allllright. forget what i said about tampa bay. after looking at the numbers they are the team most likely to rip off a prolonged winning streak. if they lose here i will make my $$$ back when oakland visits for the weekend series and i will bet the rays at the series price.

[woodman663]

Don't forget the Rays are awful against lefties, and they've never seen this one before...

[thegenix]

I'm tailing CK's picks today and adding Cleveland and the Blue Birds.

[Enogsiwon]

#'s off vasquez:

Lee 11-20 .550
Ramirez 7-16 .438
Fontenot 3-7 .429
Theroit 5-13 .385
Fox 2-4 .500

Soriano and soto are both useless against him.. But those are some good #'s. For the line to move the way it has.. The braves MUST have some kinda edge going into this.

Braves -110

[Panekkkk]

Braves hit Dempster reasonably well too. I haven't capped this game but I gaurantee sabermetrics caps this game at 10+ runs with those numbers. Cubs are currently slugging .500! This game has all the makings of an under trap. Over 8 is -120 and Over 7 is currently -196 at Pinny! Wow. I have trouble taking an over against Vazquez but my bet is that this game soars over 8. Hopefully the public nails the under and settles those lines.

Wow,

96% bettors on the under 8 and the line hasn't budged, in fact, it's inflated to +120. Time to nail the over.

I don't think I've ever seen a bigger under trap. Team totals over 3.5 cubs -129, over 4 braves -121. No other team totals line is lower than -110.

Line for the over is dropping nicely as the public continues to nail the under.

[shoebox]

Tuesday .........

braves -105 3 units
reds +135 3 units
det RL -105 5 units

[Enogsiwon]

Pirates at +103 might be worth a look.. 6 pirates starters hitting over .300 off moehler.. So you say, "the whole league hits .300 off moehler" more reason to take the pirates..

Maholm has pretty good #'s against the astros.

Pirates +103
braves -110
Padres +140
Padres under (9.5) -110

[Mr Handicapable]

Phils/Reds Over 8.5 is a GIFT!! Harang road #s are 4.94/1.57 WHIP/.316 batting avg. allowed! Happ for the Phils has been pretty good but 4.76 ERA w/a 1.76 WHIP at home! All 3 of his home starts have been Over 8.5 (9, 17, and 11 runs)! I expect the Reds to battle after being humiliated last night but Harang won't have a put away pitch vs these guys! I'm thinking something like 7-5?

[Enogsiwon]

One more thing on pirates..

Berkman, Lee, Tejada, rodriguez are combined 13-70(.185) against maholm. Only pence has hit him well.

[curious]

I used Jersey's runs scored in innings / innings played to calculate "out scoring", and runs allowed in innings / innings pitched to calculate "out pitching". Actual number of runs may not agree with these labels.

Phillies -145 2.9 to win 2 Lost -2.9
Phillies on win streak, Reds on losing streak, Phillies scoring more runs and giving up fewer runs last 12 games.

Royals +180 1 to win 1.8 Lost -1
Royals on win streak, Tigers on losing streak. Tigers bullpen gets lit up every game lately.

Rays RL -1 1/2 +110 1 to win 1.1 Win +1.1
Not sure about this one. Rays on a bad losing streak. Blue Jays starting a call up. Rays are outscoring and out pitching Jays last 12 games. I am going with the Rays because they are at home against a pitcher making his first start in the bigs. Going RL because rooks making their first BL start either pitch a shut out of get blown out.

Dodgers -140 2.8 to win 2 Win +2
Mets on losing streak. Dodgers out hit and out pitch Mets last 12.

Athletics +225 1 to win 2.25 Lost -1
Athletics won last 2, Red Sox not playing well lately. Athletics outscoring Red Sox last 12 if you can believe that.

Brewers -145 1.45 to win 1
Brewers outscoring Cardinals by large margin last 12.

Astros -120 1.2 to win 1 Lost -1.2
Astros outscoring Pirates last 12. Astros on win streak, Pirates on losing streak.

Cubs +100 1 to win 1 Lost -1
Cubs on win streak, Braves on losing streak.

Yankees -130 1.3 to win 1
This one worries me a bit, Twins pitching staff is amazing lately. Opponents scored in 1.82 innings per game lately. That is an incredible number. But the Yankees innings scored in is 3.5 vs Twins 2.6. That is two standard deviations. I don't know much about Scott Baker. Houston lit him up a few weeks ago. Not sure which Sabathia will show up, the guy seems to have multiple personalities.

White Sox -150 3 to win 2 Win +2
Sox are better last 12 games in every statistic that is measured.

Nationals +120 1 to win 1.2
Don't laugh. The Nationals score in 2.67 innings vs Rockies 2.09 last 12. Not sure how they are doing that.

Diamondbacks -155 1.55 to win 1
Diamondbacks on a win streak. HUH??? Let me check the stats again. Yes, DBacks on win streak, Padres on yet another losing streak.

Angels -170 1.7 to win 1
Angels finally put a win streak together. Beat Rangers yesterday. Let's try them again today.

Mariners -140 2.8 to win 2
No, I am not on crack. The Orioles are self destructing. The Mariners out perform the O's in every statistic last 12.

Giants +115 1 to win 1.15
Giants at home. Edge to Giants pitching, edge to Marlins hitting. Zito is a crackhead but maybe the Manager will take him out before the game gets away from them.

[jellobiafra]

Good god curious. That's a hell of a card. I don't like anybody's chances at positive units with that many plays, but good luck.

I like FLA and NYY tonight.

[cocknocker]

That's god shit curious. I like the Metropolitans to break the jump ALL OVER the Dodgers today because it doesn't make any sense to take the Mets! Good luck. Got to get back to watching the Michael Jackson Memorial

[obamaismyuncle]

I'm on:

Detroit -1.5
Red Sox -1.5
Whitesox -1.5

[curious]

Good god curious. That's a hell of a card. I don't like anybody's chances at positive units with that many plays, but good luck.

I like FLA and NYY tonight.

LOL

then you would have HATED my NCAAF and NCAAB seasons. At least 30 plays a day when games were on. Ended up > 70% in both. In NCAAF my specialty is big dogs on the ML. Made a killing.

Oh, and you would have loved my NBA season. Sheeeet. Side, total, quarters and halves in pretty much every game. Also ended up > 70%. Not one season, 2 seasons in a row. Also hit that rate in MLB last two seasons.

THIS year in MLB things are 50-50.

I'm trying to figure out a way to evaluate bullpens. I don't like the Save/Save Opp stat. Here is why:

Suppose that a team is down by 1 run and the bases have some runers on them and a relief pitcher is brought in. And he gets lit up and gives up 2 runs. Then he is taken out. HIS ERA is find. The starting pitcher's ERA just went up 2 runs. Now another reliever comes in and gives up a couple of runs. Now the team is down 5. Now they score 4. They lose the game. A game that they should have won if their relief pitcher's weren't smoking crack and texting the hot girls with the mini skirts sitting in the seats above the bullpen. lining up their assignation for after the game.

This wasn't a blown save but the relief pitchers cost the team the game. And it doesn't show up anywhere in the stats.

[jellobiafra]

Right on curious. Right on.

I will definitely have my eye on your picks for football and basketball at least. Good luck.

By the way, is your avatar a Nick Nolte mug shot?

[Panekkkk]

LOL

then you would have HATED my NCAAF and NCAAB seasons. At least 30 plays a day when games were on. Ended up > 70% in both. In NCAAF my specialty is big dogs on the ML. Made a killing.

Oh, and you would have loved my NBA season. Sheeeet. Side, total, quarters and halves in pretty much every game. Also ended up > 70%. Not one season, 2 seasons in a row. Also hit that rate in MLB last two seasons.

THIS year in MLB things are 50-50.

I'm trying to figure out a way to evaluate bullpens. I don't like the Save/Save Opp stat. Here is why:

Suppose that a team is down by 1 run and the bases have some runers on them and a relief pitcher is brought in. And he gets lit up and gives up 2 runs. Then he is taken out. HIS ERA is find. The starting pitcher's ERA just went up 2 runs. Now another reliever comes in and gives up a couple of runs. Now the team is down 5. Now they score 4. They lose the game. A game that they should have won if their relief pitcher's weren't smoking crack and texting the hot girls with the mini skirts sitting in the seats above the bullpen. lining up their assignation for after the game.

This wasn't a blown save but the relief pitchers cost the team the game. And it doesn't show up anywhere in the stats.

Relief pitching WHIP and maybe situational WHIP could pick that up. But you're right, I've never really understood the whole giving the run to the previous pitcher.

I honeslty think the run should be split between both pitchers.

[t-bone]

The D-backs/Pads UNDER looks tasty!

[Vreston]

I just checked the stats on Vazquez and Dempster.
It seems that Vazquez has better stats than Dempster.

Dempster in his last 3 starts has an era of 4.91 and a whip of 1.799
Vazquez in his last 3 starts has an era of 1.37 and a whip of 1.373

I copy-pasted much more stats from donbest since you guys were talking about this game, but that didn't work out as it showed up as a mess. I had to edit and I just wrote the era and whips.

I also saw that Vazquez is definitely an under pitcher whereas Dempster has gone both over and under in his recent games.

Of course CK you look at things from angles I can't even imagine. Just trying to help.

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/200742-fyi-cubs-braves-pitching-change.html#post2005588

fyi: PITCHING CHANGE FOR THE CUBBIES TONIGHT FELLAS

[Vreston]

So it's gonna be Zambrano.
Scratch my previous post!

[Tennispro]

Cubs and Astros for me tonight GL.

[oda11]

God, I can't see your picks, Tennispro...