Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 7/7/09

[paco]

5-0 Dodgers, mets are done. They suck

[maddogmadden86]

wow! how does doug davis go 0-3 in his last 3 with a .846 era, thats crazy i'm leaning toward the under in the Padres Dbacks game

[Panekkkk]

I was thinking more about it this way. The job of a relief pitcher is to improve the situation that they inherit. So, performance should be measured as the difference between the situation when the pitcher entered the game and the situation when the pitcher left the game.

I'm going to paraphrase a post that one of my friends made on Baseball fever discussing this issue, I'll also give the link. http://baseball-fever.com/showpost.p...1&postcount=36

Runners on 1st and 3rd, no one out. The scoring probability is 1.619.

We use that as the reference model.

Now say the reliever gives up a double play ball and the runner on 3rd scores.

Now we have 2 outs with no runners on. The scoring probability is now .095. The next better flies out ending the inning, the scoring probability is now .000.

So, the reliever inherited a situation with a scoring probability of 1.619 and left the game with a scoring probability of .000 with 1 run scored.

So, the relief pitcher would get:
1.619 - 1.00 = .619 runs saved performance points.

The starting pitcher starts the game with no outs, no one one, and a runner at the plate (the batter). This is a scoring probability of .454. When the starter leaves the game with the mess that the relief pitcher inherited, runners at 1st and 3rd with no outs, the starter gets:
.454 - 1.619 = -1.165 performance points.

Hah curious, there you go making things more complicated. I like it though

[cocknocker]

Piss on the Metropolitans!

[cocknocker]

Piss on the Royals! Chen couldn't keep it down today. Grienke will get it done tomorrow. This kind of loss is not as hard to take as a bullpen collapse though. Chen had it going but he didn't keep the ball down here in the 5th and it cost his team the game. He's outta there!

[maddogmadden86]

you never know CK the tigers bullpen is horrific! zumaya may be able to throw 100 but that ball if hit on the sweet spot goes out 400mph and real fast! I'm sweating out this under in the dodgers mets game not liking anything tonight if i had a gun to my head id take the marlins with big josh johnson but i dont like giving up the juice

[xxdjstriderxx]

lol

[cocknocker]

Piss on the Royals, Mets and Twins! Come on Baltimore! The only solace is that my system KILLED today so far!

[maddogmadden86]

touche CK i forgot about your system! good job today on that man i gotta open an account at you know where and start cashing in!

[maddogmadden86]

also i

[maddogmadden86]

my bad guys my internet has been whacky since we had this crazy 5 minute yes i sadi 5 minte storm here on the jersey shore and knocked out all of our power around here and the servers adn things have been kinda funny in the electrical department, but anyway i said about a week or two ago Javier Vacquez finally will finally get some run support behind him even though chipper wasnt starting tonight and when this happens he will be a cash cow! he is the most under rated pitcher in the MLB right now

[maddogmadden86]

phewww! sweated that under out like whoahhh! thats something like 10-0 since coming back man i love the MLB

[cocknocker]

Orioles finally playing like they have some sense!

[obamaismyuncle]

I'm on:

Detroit -1.5
Red Sox -1.5
Whitesox -1.5

yep i win again! 10-1 in my last 11 str8 bets$$$$

[xxdjstriderxx]

nice play on the O's i was feelin that shit CK

slammed the **** outta them, almost 20% of my bankroll

lets close it out in style boys.

[cocknocker]

Would be nice to get this double up money. Man I really hate that Chen got rocked in that one inning. The Royals were playing with them neck and neck...Oh well Greinke's going for me tomorrow. I also think it will be a good spot to get some Marlins too. Gotta get paid

Royals-130 (I took them for the series so this is an auto play for me)
Blue Birds+130 Kazmir is 0-5 against the Blue Birds at home
Twins+120 (No misprint. I took them for the series. I am determined to get paid)
Marlins+123

[jgbgsox]

good luck to you on the kc series i also have kc for the series just hope greinke can give us a strong outing tomorrow, i had marlins for series but they lost first two i see you think they will avoid the sweep, also i have reds for series at +170 im thinking about playing philly rl at +125 what would you do with the reds series let it ride or take philly rl at +125

[cocknocker]

Sherril comes in the 9th inning and gives up 2 hits and a run within 7 pitches. Relievers are so watered down. TheO's have to e up by double digits with this guy as their closer

[cocknocker]

good luck to you on the kc series i also have kc for the series just hope greinke can give us a strong outing tomorrow, i had marlins for series but they lost first two i see you think they will avoid the sweep, also i have reds for series at +170 im thinking about playing philly rl at +125 what would you do with the reds series let it ride or take philly rl at +125

Just let it ride at this point. You already have your win. You can't back Homer Bailey. He is the over waiting to happen by himself, lol!

[xxdjstriderxx]

pretty sure twins cash tomorrow. going to be a side play for me. gl ck

[cap10]

str8 bets in bbl are insane ;; case in pt;; bal sea;; bal puts up 8 zeros and then 5 in the 9th;; f me

[cap10]

fk the o's ;;; 2 games ago i had them o3.5 game;; they put up zero;; bal are bannned from my list period;; rot in hell