MLB Leans~Monday 6/15

JumpoffJoeBeezy · 06-15-09, 06:14 AM

I like the Brewers and the Giants.

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 06:25 AM

I might sit this one out today. Haven't decided yet.

One thing that might be worth mentioning about that Indians game. I don't know if any of you have paid attention at all to the "System Integrity" thread on this page. I was involved with it in the early stages but decided it was too risky and got out. The system is a chase which involves betting the biggest money favorite line (opening line) on the run line for up to 6 games in a row. I know it was throuroughly backtested for last season and the "system" proved perfect. I think it went to a 6 game chase once, a 5 game chace twice and a few 4 gamers and that was it. The rest were all 1-3 game chases and most of them 1 or 2.

Anyway, seems the system has hit a rough spot and they are on an "F" bet....which is the last of 6 games...which is as far the system ever stretched last season and as far as it is intended to go. Of course it doesn't have any effect on the matchup today, but it is of interest at least to point out that the biggest money line favorite on the board has failed to win on the run line for 5 consecutive days now. And that this only happened once last year and in that case the biggest favorite won on the run line the next (6th) game.

Being that it is only a 2 game schedule, those guys that have played this through to a 6th game and are following it to a T are really being put to the screws today. But a system is a system, and it might be worth a small play today just based on the last sentence of the above paragraph.

Good luck everyone!

theplagy · 06-15-09, 08:40 AM

hey jello,

Wouldnt LAA be the bet today for that system?

im seeing -118 for CLE and -120 for LAA

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by theplagy

hey jello,

Wouldnt LAA be the bet today for that system?

im seeing -118 for CLE and -120 for LAA

Damn, you know what... you're right. I was just going by what I thought I saw someone post in that thread last night.... that CLE was the play today. But LAA opened at -115 and CLE -113 so LAA run line would be the play.

So to summarize, if LAA doesn't cover the run line tonight it will be the first time in over a year and a half that the biggest opening favorite hasn't covered the run line for a streak of 6 straight days. Again, no handicapping involved but it might be worth a small play if you're dying for some action.

Panekkkk · 06-15-09, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

I might sit this one out today. Haven't decided yet.

One thing that might be worth mentioning about that Indians game. I don't know if any of you have paid attention at all to the "System Integrity" thread on this page. I was involved with it in the early stages but decided it was too risky and got out. The system is a chase which involves betting the biggest money favorite line (opening line) on the run line for up to 6 games in a row. I know it was throuroughly backtested for last season and the "system" proved perfect. I think it went to a 6 game chase once, a 5 game chace twice and a few 4 gamers and that was it. The rest were all 1-3 game chases and most of them 1 or 2.

Anyway, seems the system has hit a rough spot and they are on an "F" bet....which is the last of 6 games...which is as far the system ever stretched last season and as far as it is intended to go. Of course it doesn't have any effect on the matchup today, but it is of interest at least to point out that the biggest money line favorite on the board has failed to win on the run line for 5 consecutive days now. And that this only happened once last year and in that case the biggest favorite won on the run line the next (6th) game.

Being that it is only a 2 game schedule, those guys that have played this through to a 6th game and are following it to a T are really being put to the screws today. But a system is a system, and it might be worth a small play today just based on the last sentence of the above paragraph.

Good luck everyone!

Jello, this is exactly why I stopped the system. I started, and then backchecked and realized that the math doesn't add up. Over ten years there were 13 losses. If you hit two losses per year you are more than done, not to mention that on an F bet you are now laying several thousands on the line.

Not worth it IMO.

Panekkkk · 06-15-09, 09:30 AM

Everything is pushing me towards the Angels but I don't know if I can pull the trigger. Lackey has been garbage but he is due for a solid game. Angels are slugging .750 over their last 3 games and .593 over last 5. Giants not too shabby themselves though, slugging .424 over last 3. Zito is a decent pitcher, particularly at home and no Angels have good numbers against him, not that that really means anything. Both teams are coming off complete games so their bullpens are rather rested. SF clearly has the worse bullpen but over the last 5 the Angels bullpen has been significantly worse...

Ah screw it. I'm taking the Angels -118. Lackey will finally throw a decent game and the Angels bats are just way too hot to ignore. If they can get to Zito early he may meltdown.

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 09:43 AM

I might just lay off these two completely an run with whatever the ATM's have for WNBA tonight. I like Jimbo's angle on interleague AL teams at home 1st game.... but is there any research on that Jimbo or just a gut? Also like the idea of backing the Angels based on them being the better team and hitting better AND the whole 6th game in a row thing.... but I would just play them ML. I might just for kicks and giggles put CLE and LAA in a 1 unit parlay and say fvck it.

MrMonkey · 06-15-09, 09:54 AM

I know alot of guys are very successful with certain chase systems (which I'm

about) but I remember what our friend WillieBee wrote about his thoughts on these systems, so I go back to that whenever I get the urge! I go back to as a kid with your friends saying best of 3, ok, best of 5, no, 7, 9..... you gotta win sometime, right! Good luck to all!

MrMonkey

cocknocker · 06-15-09, 10:08 AM

For me I like the Brewers+112 and Angels-1.5 +140

WHIP

MIL 1.24
CLE 1.34

Advantage Brewers

Power ranking

MIL-110
CLE+110

Line

MIL+116
CLE-124

Advantage Brewers as there is a false favorite in this game. The line has for the most part stayed right where it is.

Slugging% last 3 games

MIL .376
CLE .385

Advantage Wahoos

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

MIL 0.984
CLE 1.875

Advantage Brewers

My pick: Brewers+112

**************************************** **********************

WHIP

LAA 1.60
SFO 1.43

Advantage Giants

Power ranking

LAA-112
SFO+112

Line

LAA-115
SFO+112

Advantage: Angels The line is spot on with the power ranking. Despite the factthat the Angels have a higher amount of bettors on their side, the line has moved up a bit to LAA-118/SFO+108. So the line is doing exactly what it is supposed to do.

Slugging % Last 3 Games

LAA .750 (Holy smokes)
SFO .424

Advantage Angels HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 Games

LAA 0.938
SFO 0.500

Advantage Giants

My pick: Angels-1.5. Lackey is more than overdue for a correction, and Zito just won't be able to throw the ball past the Angel hitters with the groove that they are in right now. The talent is there and so is the drive.

ragiche · 06-15-09, 10:08 AM

Hello guys,back from a very hectic work.wow that was 3 days straight.I was doing my boss's avery sh*tload of paperwork.But now i'm back and relax,My boss gave me a dayoff today so back to my betting practice for this week.Hopefully you've done great in these past 3 days. I'll post my plays later got to hit the showers.

suicidekings · 06-15-09, 10:13 AM

Neither game looks appealing to me. If I was going to play though, it would be over on the individial team totals that I would look at. The totals are 4.5 for CLE/MIL and 4 for LAA/SF. I'll bet at least 3 of them go over today...

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 10:48 AM

I've decided to lay off the MIL/CLE game. Instead, I've parlayed LSU -210 and LAA -118 for 1 unit.

Good luck!

The_Kid · 06-15-09, 12:10 PM

That Angels offense is certainly clicking now. I hope Lackey can at least look somewhat like his former self though.

ragiche · 06-15-09, 12:22 PM

Ok here are my plays for tonight's game.Gonna take out my wife to the mall to buy some things.I just don't usually plays the total very often but i'm gonna take a shot today.

Mil/Cle Over 9.5 (5x) The wahoos are starting to hit their strides plus pavano is also giving some runs.Total over to this game.

Laa/Sfo Under 8.5 (8x) As i can see is both teams are hot right now hitting the balls to all corners of the field,and zito as we all know that he gives alot of walks,why does the linemaker open at 8.5?It's kind sound of easy to take the over in this game.Mmmm.... I smell a trap here,or maybe they know that this will be a pitchers' duel, lackey gonna fix up his pitches and zito will continue to stop the angels here.But i'm not buying it,I think the under here will be my play.I know that i don't have stats to backup my plays,i just only take a look on the lines and the teams the way they played the last 5 games.

GL guys wish you all to have a very winningful week.

shoebox · 06-15-09, 12:57 PM

angels ML
angels under

djpremier36 · 06-15-09, 02:11 PM

2 unders for me today...

MIL/CLE under 9.5 -117 (3 units)

Both teams have been going under lately and both batting in the .230's in their last 10 games. Bush has gone under the number in his last 5 starts, while the under is 10-2-1 for the Tribe in their last 13 interleague games and 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games.

LAA/SF under 4.5 1st 5 -107 (5 units)

G-Men have gone over the number only 3 times in their last 12 overall. Lackey's only 2 starts against SF have gone under the number as well. The Halos have been scoring lately but not so much against lefties hitting only .217 in their last 10. The under is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 in SF. I like the first 5 better with LAA's crappy bullpen.

thegenix · 06-15-09, 02:27 PM

I'm on the Indians today. Deciding if I want to take the Angels also.

Panekkkk · 06-15-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by ragiche

Ok here are my plays for tonight's game.Gonna take out my wife to the mall to buy some things.I just don't usually plays the total very often but i'm gonna take a shot today.

Mil/Cle Over 9.5 (5x) The wahoos are starting to hit their strides plus pavano is also giving some runs.Total over to this game.

Laa/Sfo Under 8.5 (8x) As i can see is both teams are hot right now hitting the balls to all corners of the field,and zito as we all know that he gives alot of walks,why does the linemaker open at 8.5?It's kind sound of easy to take the over in this game.Mmmm.... I smell a trap here,or maybe they know that this will be a pitchers' duel, lackey gonna fix up his pitches and zito will continue to stop the angels here.But i'm not buying it,I think the under here will be my play.I know that i don't have stats to backup my plays,i just only take a look on the lines and the teams the way they played the last 5 games.

GL guys wish you all to have a very winningful week.

Yes, the line at 8.5 is mighty fishy and I'm suspecting it will be a pitcher's duel with the Angels coming out on top.

Steve0432 · 06-15-09, 02:55 PM

AL is going to flex today. If your feeling risky I would take the the spread and bump the payout but the moneyline is the safe money today.

macadams · 06-15-09, 03:47 PM

Booked:

2 units on parlay CLE/SFG @ 3.59

___________________________________ _

June: - 7.68 units

sportsguy04 · 06-15-09, 04:14 PM

Everyone seems to be on Indians.

Ill take the Brew Crew with Bush light pitching.

thegenix · 06-15-09, 04:20 PM

Anyone know the weather in Cleveland?

jgbgsox · 06-15-09, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by thegenix

Anyone know the weather in Cleveland?

Conditions: Partly Cloudy Temperature: 75.0 °
Humidity: 48 Wind: North at 9.2 MPH (8 KT)

Pick'nParlays · 06-15-09, 04:34 PM

no plays for me today

thegenix · 06-15-09, 04:37 PM

Thanks jgbg.

solobass · 06-15-09, 04:52 PM

giants and wahoos. so i have been putting the finishing touches on some stuff and can make calls on almost all games now. i will start tomorrow and post all my picks here. lets see how it goes. best of luck tonight, both of my plays are of the smallish variety.

Dexter · 06-15-09, 05:30 PM

over angels 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.80 or > in their last 3.

obamaismyuncle · 06-15-09, 05:55 PM

I'm on Clev ML and Angels ML. I threw the 4 teams in play tonights names into and hat and these are the 2 I pulled first. Good thing I didn't pull 2 teams names on the same game. Yesterday was ugly so I thought this may work. BOL ALL!

ram1502 · 06-15-09, 06:33 PM

Hey Jello.....Congrats on Virginia's big win today, knocking off Cal St Fullerton and in the process eliminating them. Maybe they can go all the way this year for ya. I'm rootin for you man.

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 07:27 PM

Thanks ram! It's gonna be a long and tough road though. They play the loser of this ARK/LSU game on WED (probably Ark).... then if they manage to win that they turn around and play the winner of this game Friday night. If they can somehow manage to win that one, they turn around and play that team again Sunday night. And those are all elimination game for UVA and even if they win all 3 they still have to play a best of 3 series against whoever comes out of the other bracket. So they have to win 4 in a row (now 3 after today) and then 2 out of 3.

I'm not complaining though. It's great just to be involved in this thing. I never thought I'd see it and now the more I'm reading about this team and their youth....I'm seeing they are going to be preseason top 5 or so next year (if not #1) so the future is very bright.

ragiche · 06-15-09, 07:52 PM

back from shopping,the over hits just in 4 innings.wow

ragiche · 06-15-09, 07:55 PM

these 2 teams are pilling up the scoreboard.

jellobiafra · 06-15-09, 07:57 PM

Pavano....get back in the gutter where you belong.

Dexter · 06-15-09, 08:17 PM

Tue-

*for my 5 autobets, i'm just going to list A1-A5 going forward. No need to keep writing out the criteria, as those who have followed know them by now for the most part. If someone wants clarification, just ask and i'll gladly post again.

nationals (RL - Autobet) - A1
brewers (ML - 2x) - gallardo has a 1.47/1.20 in his last 3 - sowers a 5.14/1.78 at home.
rangers (ML - 4x) - rodriguez has a 7.02/1.86 in his last 3 with a road whip of 1.58. millwood has a .87/1.11 in his last 3.
tigers (ML - 2x) - verlander has a 1.57/1.08 in his last 3 - wainwright a 4.50/1.60.
padres (RL - Autobet) - A2