Mr. Crumbs Paper Bag Plays and Leans for Thursday 6/11/09

[cocknocker]

Today's Paper Bag Play (Lunchtime Play) is on the Red Birds. They are the superior team and it will show now that the wood is hot. Miller is an enigmatic underacheiver. Wellemeyer is a class pitcher and a gamer.

Anyway the breakdown will come tomorrow for the games.

Red Birds+100 HEAVY Paper Bag Play
D-Backs-1.5 +135 Paper Bag Play (Scherzer is lights out)
Twins-105 Paper Bag Play (The Twins are hot the A's are not)
Yanks-1.5 +110 The streak ends today
Mets-110*

I will have my breakdown available in the morning. I already put in my HEAVY play on the Red Birds at +100. I love even money wagers.


*Also i am looking at the movement on the Mets overnight as well. They have the potential to be a bigger play if the bats are correct.

[JayRow]

CK, What do you think about Greinke and KC at -135?

[tbill11]

Jay Row...The Indians are trash this season and will be hurting without Sizemore and Cabrera on the field. I think Greinke's a good choice tomorrow...he got lit up in his last start and it wont happen again, especially not against a dreadful Indians team. Throw on the fact that Sowers is awful, and I think -135 is a gift on this one.

[Jimbo42]

What up!... I love Paper Bag Plays!!!LOL

okie dokie...
Booked:

Seattle +140
Seattle -1.5 +210

Atlanta -1.5 +130

Cleveland +115
Cleveland -1.5 +230 (I'll take the home dog in a divsion rivalry coming off a loss... and pitchers are like teams.. after a streak of goodness is broken with badness... they many times follow up another badness..lol...you know what i mean)

GL homies!!

[jellobiafra]

DET/CWS under 9


Good luck!

[Panekkkk]

Scherzer is far from lights out, especially at home... 8 ERA or something. SF might make a run here. Probably not tho

[cocknocker]

Right Panekkk, but this is one of those games where you have to ask yourself, "If Vegas were to make a ton of money on this game, what would have to happen? We have a consensus of

Giants +1.5 96%
D-Backs-1.5 4%
Giants ML 42%
D-Backs 58%

So if the D-Backs were to beat the Giants by more than 1 run, Vegas would clean up on this game. And these are CURRENT consensus numbers too. I think that it is safe to say that I have lined up with the minority side of this game (4% of bettors on D-Backs -1.5), and that means that I am placing my money where the books money is.

And on another note, I never use ERA numbers. They are VERY misleading about how a pitcher competes.

[Panekkkk]

Right Panekkk, but this is one of those games where you have to ask yourself, "If Vegas were to make a ton of money on this game, what would have to happen? We have a consensus of

Giants +1.5 96%
D-Backs-1.5 4%
Giants ML 42%
D-Backs 58%

So if the D-Backs were to beat the Giants by more than 1 run, Vegas would clean up on this game. And these are CURRENT consensus numbers too. I think that it is safe to say that I have lined up with the minority side of this game (4% of bettors on D-Backs -1.5), and that means that I am placing my money where the books money is.

And on another note, I never use ERA numbers. They are VERY misleading about how a pitcher competes.

His WHIP is 1.70 BAA .308 at home. His WHIP is 2.065 in his last two home starts. But I do like your analysis his numbers just scare me. Thanks for the breakdown

[Panekkkk]

Any leans on the Cubs / Stros game? I'm liking the Cubbies alot. Not the best value though

[cocknocker]

CK, What do you think about Greinke and KC at -135?

It's a very public play, but it's a very strong one. I don't like to go over -135 vigorish, and in this case he is on the road. KC does have all of the ingredients and advantages that I look for in one of my plays, but the Indians were shut out yesterday, and the game has the look of Chicken Dinner. The public is all over the Royals with 80% of the consensus in their favor. If I were to play this game, I would have to take the Royals-1.5, as I don't think it's a good idea to pay that kind of vigorish for a road team. I just can't do it....

[AC1318]

blue jays +147 play of the day

[jellobiafra]

Anybody else like Lannan at a pretty fair price to salvage a game vs Owings and the Reds? I like Lannan and I don't like Owings. The more I think about this, the more it seems like the best play on the board to me.

[sportsguy04]

Went with:

Cardinals ML HEAVY
Detroit ML
Detroit/Chicago Under 8.5
Minnesota ML

[jellobiafra]

It's a very public play, but it's a very strong one. I don't like to go over -135 vigorish, and in this case he is on the road. KC does have all of the ingredients and advantages that I look for in one of my plays, but the Indians were shut out yesterday, and the game has the look of Chicken Dinner. The public is all over the Royals with 80% of the consensus in their favor. If I were to play this game, I would have to take the Royals-1.5, as I don't think it's a good idea to pay that kind of vigorish for a road team. I just can't do it....

I just threw a tiny bit at a 2-teamer with KC and WAS. Pays about 2-1. What the hell, right?

[cocknocker]

WHIP

STL 1.57
FLO 1.47

Advantage Florida

Power ranking

STL-135
FLO+135

Line

STL+104
FLO-112

Advantage Red Birds as Florida is a false favorite. The line is now STL-105/FLO-115

Slugging% last 3 games

STL .450
FLO .423

Advantage Red Birds

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

STL 1.967
FLO 1.220

Advantage Florida

My pick: Red Birds+100 (Played last night) HEAVY The Red Birds are a superior team over the Marlins and it will show again today. Wellemeyer is a gamer and he will keep the Red Birds in the game. Miller is overrated and doesn't have that many innings underneath his belt this year. He is not ready to face a hot hitting Red Birds lineup.
**************************************** **************************************** *

WHIP

MIN 1.32
OAK 1.40

Advantage Twins

Power ranking

MIN -110
OAK+110

Line

MIN+106
OAK-108

Advantage Twins as there is a false favorite in this game.

Slugging% last 3 games

MIN .426
OAK .269

Advantage Twins HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 Games

MIN 0.864
OAK 1.975

Advantage Twins

My pick: Twins+100 The only reason it's not HEAVY is because the Twins are ahead in this series already. I will play it cool knowing that this is a long baseball season.

**************************************** **************************************** *

WHIP

SFO 1.67
ARI 1.43

Advantage D-Backs

Power ranking

SFO +147
ARI -147

Line

SFO+144
ARI-152

Advantage D-Backs as the line was spot on. I alread ytouched on the consensus numbers. No need to go over them again.

Slugging% Last 3 Games

SFO .426
ARI .323

Advantage Giants

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 Games

SFO 0.870
ARI 1.087

Advantage Giants

My pick: D-Backs-1.5 +135 The D-Backs are favored by this much out of nowhere. The public doesn't buy it and they are playing the Giants+1.5 at an alarming rate (96%). A lot of advantages for the Giants in this game except one. The element of surprise: the power of the books to know what the public doesn't know.

**************************************** **************************************** *

WHIP

NYY 1.13
BOS 1.60

Advantage Yanks

Power ranking

NYY-160
BOS+160

Line

NYY-150
BOS+136

Advantage Yanks as for once this season they are slightly undervalued. They will always be a very publiclay so I disregard consensus numbers when wagering on the Yankees. If you are waiting for them to be a minority on a wager, you might as well quit wagering on baseball. It ain't happenin'. They have a fan base a moon long.

Slugging% Last 3 games

NYY .467
BOS .500

Advantage Boston

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 Games

NYY 0.985
BOS 1.099

Advantage Yanks

My pick: Yanks-1.5 +110

**************************************** **************************************** *

WHIP

PHI 1.51
MET 1.74

Advantage Phillies

Power ranking

PHI+104
MET-104

Line

PHI-110
MET+102

Advantage Mets as the wrong team is favored. With only 42% of bettors on their side the Mets are holding their own and keeping the line in their favor pushing this game to a -110 affair.

Slugging% last 3 games

PHI .518
MET 479

Advantage Phillies

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 Games

PHI 1.230
MET 1.000

My pick: Mets-110 of course. It is obvious that there is something up with this game, so I will take the fishy team that is holding their own despite the odds.

[sportsguy04]

Anybody else like Lannan at a pretty fair price to salvage a game vs Owings and the Reds? I like Lannan and I don't like Owings. The more I think about this, the more it seems like the best play on the board to me.

Yeah Owings sucks. Im not sure why we have not sent him back down to AAA. Once Volquez is back, he will be sent down b/c Maloney the rookie had an outstanding game against the cubs in his MLB debut. Owings is the walk king.

[cocknocker]

Any leans on the Cubs / Stros game? I'm liking the Cubbies alot. Not the best value though

Don't touch games with pitching changes overnight. You never know what you're going to get. I wanted to play Scott Richmond pitching for the Blue Jays today, but he ws pushed back due to the rain-out yesterday in Texas. So I am laying off of that game altogether, you underdig? The Cubs may come out and dominate, but it is kind of hard to handicap a game with a pitching change overnight

[waiverwire]

Really weak Marlins lineup today: http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/lineup.pl

[hockeytown71]

What about the Tigers! Ernest Jackson has been virtually unhittable as of late and it's basically a pk. Look at his whip in his last 3 (.69) and on the road (.90). This is all while pitching damn near complete games. The guy is a horse who goes deep into ballgames. I have to think the Tigers ml is a solid play today. As well as a smaller play on Under 8.5.

[Phillth]

My book shows the cards as a ML fav at -120 but the runline is +1.5 -240. this seems strange to me.

[peterpan19]

phillth
not at all...bc STL opened as the dog...so the RL is correct

[ragiche]

My plays for today so far:

Early Games.(BOOKED)

Palehose PK (12x)

Later Games. Note: If my early game cashes I will play them 2x each.If not 5x each.

Snakes -1.5 +140 Tailing CK.

Yanks -1.5 +110 Tailing CK.

Twinkies -110 Tailing CK.

GL all.

[Panekkkk]

Cards not looking good early and FLA with their weak lineup are starting to get to Welly!

[melincrea]

Cards not looking good early and FLA with their weak lineup are starting to get to Welly!

Yeah.. 3-1 early in the game, at 7-3 in hits.. not looking good at all.

[cocknocker]

C'mon Red Birdies! Time for some runs!

[melincrea]

C'mon Red Birdies! Time for some runs!

Agreed.

[ebbearsfb1]

andrew miller of a sudden is un hittable geezz... everytime i tail the heavy plays.....

[El Sol]

phillth
not at all...bc STL opened as the dog...so the RL is correct

Dont think they opened as a dog, i got them 901 St Louis Cardinals +113 on the overnght

edit, obviously im tired.....

[cocknocker]

Money is burning! Somebody please call the fire department!

[cocknocker]

And no one is warming up in the bullpen. Time for an early shot of whiskey

[wangichu]

i have to beg to differ with you. The A's won 7 straight prior to getting hit by the twinkies. They were very hot going into this series, i really expect them to bounce back and even it up. Haven't committed moneywise though.

Like the cards, debating on the mets.

have to like santana on the road getting plus money still. He came through for me against verlander and the angels are really coming around as a team. Meanwhile, until david price proves he can pitch past 5 innings i have to consider him an appropriate fade materia.

LAA ML

[Panekkkk]

Florida have 10 hits with a soft lineup going tonight to the Cards 3 (all in the first inning). This looks over

STL might be able to claw back but their hitting has been horrendous. Yesterday seemed somewhat of a fluke. A lot of runs scored on errors etc.

[thegenix]

Cards blowing it.

[cocknocker]

In between innings here in the 6th no one is warming up. Wellemeyer is coming out for more punishment in the 7th. Money is roasting.

[thegenix]

In between innings here in the 6th no one is warming up. Wellemeyer is coming out for more punishment in the 7th. Money is roasting.

Agh. They need to get him the hell out of there!