MLB Leans ~ Monday 6/1

cocknocker · 06-01-09, 10:39 PM

You're welcome gentlemen. The Reds were due, and the Cardinals had to have some type of jet lag. I think that the A's 1st half was one hell of a call though considering what they were up against. It was like stealing money. Cahill islights out, but the A's bullpen is very unlike anything that I have seen Billy Beane put on the field in years...

ram1502 · 06-01-09, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

I know the Braves as well as anyone on this board. I've watched each of his last 3 starts closely. He's been a different pitcher. Keeping the ball down where he needs to be....starting the curve at the waist instead of the chest. He's even had a little more giddyup on the fastball. He's actually been fantastic lately. Check the numbers. I'm not pulling these out of my ass, trust me.

I don't think you are pulling anything out of your ass Jello. You have been killing the unders lately. I have my eye on you, lol.

Originally posted by Dexter

hes actually been pretty solid in his last 3 (era/whip of 2.89/1.18)

i was giving this under some consideration, but i have never seen wells pitch - nor do i know anything about him.

My "perception" of Kawakami was skewed. I knew he started the game against the Diamondbacks that the Braves lost 12-0....what I failed to realize was he was pulled after 5 and only gave up 3 of those runs. Looks solid after more research, but then again the Braves' bullpen is nothing to write home to mommy about and Kawakami has only gone past the 6th once this season. I may have to tail you Jello, but I don's know. Regardless, good luck sir. No disrespect intended, just food for thought.

jellobiafra · 06-01-09, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

hes actually been pretty solid in his last 3 (era/whip of 2.89/1.18)

i was giving this under some consideration, but i have never seen wells pitch - nor do i know anything about him.

Check out the ground ball/fly ball ratio on this kid. Not to mention WHIP, OPB, ERA, K/BB. The Braves will be pounding the ball into the dirt all night long.

jellobiafra · 06-01-09, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by ram1502

Regardless, good luck sir. No disrespect intended, just food for thought.

None taken at all. It's so hard to convey tone over a message board so if I seemed annoyed or anything along those lines it wasn't my intention. Just know that when I post an under, it is weighted very heavily on the starting pitchers and especially their last 3. I'm looking for several key indicators and if I find them I move on to things like trends, past performace, matchups, offenses (total, last 10, last 5).... and bunch other tedious stuff that I won't bore you with right now.

BOL

ram1502 · 06-01-09, 10:47 PM

More food for thought...I think we should all keep an eye out for Joe Blanton in his next start. He has been red hot his last 2 outings. He gave up 5 hits, with 11 K's in 7 innings his last time out to beat the Marlins. And tonight he has quietly only given up 4 hits, with 4 K's in 5 innings. I think he is about to go on a run. Another one is Josh Beckett, but he's not as likely to be "under the radar" as Blanton is.

EDIT: Guess I jinxed Blanton as he gave up 2 dingers in the bottom of the 6th. Figures.

ram1502 · 06-01-09, 10:51 PM

Meanwhile, somebody needs to pinch Billy Buckner and wake him up because he must be dreaming in La-La land. He is blanking this Dodgers team through 5. It can't be so. This kid has something like a 7.5 ERA in 16 innings this season.

jellobiafra · 06-01-09, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by ram1502

More food for thought...I think we should all keep an eye out for Joe Blanton in his next start. He has been red hot his last 2 outings. He gave up 5 hits, with 11 K's in 7 innings his last time out to beat the Marlins. And tonight he has quietly only given up 4 hits, with 4 K's in 5 innings. I think he is about to go on a run. Another one is Josh Beckett, but he's not as likely to be "under the radar" as Blanton is.

Well I be on the lookout, but a guy like Blanton would have a long way to go to make my radar to be honest. And he'd have to be matched up with somebody else that is meeting the criteria I'm applying. The only exceptions I'll make is for proven commodities...ace level or just below - Oswalt tonight for instance. His recent and overall indicators didn't really fall into what I look for, but I trust him (especially as we creep into the summer months) so I was willing to look past that. I took a bit of a flyer on Cook with that one too, which is where the "gut" comment I left came into play. It was an educated belief that Cook would give me an "under" outing. And he did.

I'm in the same spot with BOS/DET under 9.5 tomorrow - which I like. Just don't know whether I trust DiceK who's indicators are completely on the other side of what I'm looking for. Porcello is blinging off the board for me though.

RkD KiD · 06-01-09, 11:01 PM

Look at Billy Buckner Go!

ragiche · 06-01-09, 11:49 PM

3-2-1 for tonight ,not bad but also not good.Hopefully will get a little bit better tomorrow. See ya guys. I'm out.

ragiche · 06-01-09, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

didnt you go like 20x on a game recently? how did that do?

Yes I did Dex. Thanks for that walk off single.I ended up losing half of it instead the whole 20.That's baseball.

cocknocker · 06-02-09, 01:21 AM

Also playing Philadelphia+155. Antonio Bastardo is good.2-2 with a 1.82 era in nine starts in AAA. So he's coming in hot. If he isn't blown away by the lights he can blow the Padres minds. Obviously they have never seen the kid throw before.

khaliagent · 06-02-09, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by khaliagent

huge RLM on the dbacks ....take the dbacks.
just dont see why not with all the bets going to lad.
you would think if lad are going to take it that they would not make it cheaper for you to pick lad

hope yall payed attention!!

conmanx420 · 06-02-09, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

None taken at all. It's so hard to convey tone over a message board so if I seemed annoyed or anything along those lines it wasn't my intention. Just know that when I post an under, it is weighted very heavily on the starting pitchers and especially their last 3. I'm looking for several key indicators and if I find them I move on to things like trends, past performace, matchups, offenses (total, last 10, last 5).... and bunch other tedious stuff that I won't bore you with right now.

BOL

Hey Jello,

Just curious if you would advise doing UNDER for 1st 5 innings as well? (take the bullpen out of the equation basically)

Thanks in advance.

jellobiafra · 06-02-09, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by conmanx420

Hey Jello,

Just curious if you would advise doing UNDER for 1st 5 innings as well? (take the bullpen out of the equation basically)

Thanks in advance.

Actually, no. I don't like 5 inning lines with unders. When I cap these, I take bullpens into account. I commit to an under with the expectation that the starters will give me at least 6 strong and then that the bullpen likely to be used at that point and beyone will keep the game under. If the starters don't cooperate then I'm in trouble to begin with. That's no going to change whether I'm playing 5 innings or full. In fact, if ones starter struggles, playing the full game can end up saving you. Sunday night I took the under in the LAD/CHC game. Marshall gives up 5 runs in the 1st. The under looks blown, but low and behold it competed until the 8th inning and only went over by a half run. 5 inning line would have lost.

I could be wrong in this strategy, but I see just as many games that look to be flying over early fade back to the under as I do the other way. And again, I cap with the expectation that the bullpen will come into play - just that it will be the late inning guys involved.

conmanx420 · 06-02-09, 08:42 AM

Thanks, Jello.

I definitely see your point. I guess it can go both ways, but good to know your take on it.