GO! The "I tail the next poster, with half of my BR" -system

[Scrivero]

Rules of the system are simple:

I tail the next poster with half of my BR.

Definitions:
- "Next poster": The play that is posted in this thread by ANYONE after I have said "GO!". No matter if you want me to win or lose with your play, I tail it.
- "Half of my BR": Either bet half of my BR when the odds are minusodds OR bet to win half of my BR if the odds are plusodds.
- "BR": 9 units (from my previous line movement thread, which bored me already after 1 day). BR and hence the bets will increase if I win, see below for in depth rules.

In depth rules:
- I always play half my BR or to win half my BR. I will though make it 1/3 and 1/4 of my BR if I get to circa 45 and 70 units, respectively. I will define the change points later, if we ever get there.
- I never bet less than 1 unit, hence I will bet my whole BR if it goes under 2 units.
- This is similar to reverse martingale but not quite. The betting pattern is different and I dont have a certain bail out point.

Projections with even odds:
- I lose 4 nights in a roll, BR goes to 0 (minus 4.5, minus 2.25, minus 1.125, minus 1.125).
- I win 4 nights in a roll, BR goes to circa 45 units (plus 4.5, plus 6.5, plus 10, plus 15).

So, without further adue... GO!

And to clarify, when I say "GO!", it means that you can post any play you want, and I will tail it with half of my BR. And no, I still havent stopped my fade system, I just dont have the 1.5 to 2 hours per day to do it. This system should take 5 minutes per day which is perfect. This system is also very very gambly and interesting for me, unlike the hideous line movement system. So... GO!

Edit. Only MLB. All lines Pinnacle.

[SouthBayGame]

Cardinals -160

[JPTerriers8]

Darn it I was trying to be first and give you a HUGE GIFT
senators +175

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Go Cards!

[Scrivero]

Cardinals -160

Thanks!

Starting BR: 9 units

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals -146

[2daBank]

Darn it I was trying to be first and give you a HUGE GIFT
senators +175

I'm no hockey expert but huge gift? I'd agree odds of them winning most likely much better than line suggest but still you have to admit less than 50% no? Might be a great play but guy needs winners or he busto fast. Surely we wanna give him something that better than a coin flip not worse don't we?

[Scrivero]

Darn it I was trying to be first and give you a HUGE GIFT
senators +175

I appreciate the thought man! Though this is only MLB (I forgot to add it to the first post). And Southy was faster too.

[Scrivero]

Go Cards!

Go Cards indeed! I appreciate the love!

[Scrivero]

I'm no hockey expert but huge gift? I'd agree odds of them winning most likely much better than line suggest but still you have to admit less than 50% no? Might be a great play but guy needs winners or he busto fast. Surely we wanna give him something that better than a coin flip not worse don't we?

lol why do I never know if you are actually serious or not But you speak the truth in any case, I appreciate the kind words!

[JPTerriers8]

I'm no hockey expert but huge gift? I'd agree odds of them winning most likely much better than line suggest but still you have to admit less than 50% no? Might be a great play but guy needs winners or he busto fast. Surely we wanna give him something that better than a coin flip not worse don't we?

Your correct I misspoke it's not a gift. But with the line it's very hard not to throw some money on it. With those odds I'll take the coin flip. Good thing I was to late with the post and go Cards

[Scrivero]

I didnt come here now to celebrate a possible win (even if it does look good right now) but to let everyone know that... do NOT post the play for tomorrow before I actually say the magic word and ask you to do it. As I wont tail the play if the post comes before I post my "GO!" post. Basically I will post the result of the previous night alongside with the current BR and the amount I will bet for the next game, and at the same time I will give everyone free hands to post whatever MLB play they wish, and I will tail the first one with half of my new BR.

I might wait until tomorrow afternoon European time so that the Americans too will have a chance to post a play. I might arlready earlier post the result of the previous night's game earlier though and the BR and the amount to bet on the next game, and then give the "GO!" in a separate post later. I will see what to do.

[2daBank]

Your correct I misspoke it's not a gift. But with the line it's very hard not to throw some money on it. With those odds I'll take the coin flip. Good thing I was to late with the post and go Cards

I find in the playoffs when you talking about a superior team like penguins who not gonna lose this series that can become "false" value. As sure in a vacuum you would think Ottawa had a better chance to win than odds suggest after all it a hockey gm all you need to pull upset a fortunate bounce or 2 and a hot goaltender. However when you take out of the vacuum and realize it a pivotal game 5 that will go a long way in deciding series then chances penguins lose become far less likely imo.. I'm sure gm 6 they will offer a nice price on Ottawa at home but imo the only way to get involved rest of way is to back pit with a willingness to lay the heavy chalk and chase gm 7 as surely you don't believe pit losing this series?

[JPTerriers8]

I find in the playoffs when you talking about a superior team like penguins who not gonna lose this series that can become "false" value. As sure in a vacuum you would think Ottawa had a better chance to win than odds suggest after all it a hockey gm all you need to pull upset a fortunate bounce or 2 and a hot goaltender. However when you take out of the vacuum and realize it a pivotal game 5 that will go a long way in deciding series then chances penguins lose become far less likely imo.. I'm sure gm 6 they will offer a nice price on Ottawa at home but imo the only way to get involved rest of way is to back pit with a willingness to lay the heavy chalk and chase gm 7 as surely you don't believe pit losing this series?

I didn't expect a blowout like this. Was thinking a 2-1 game possibly 3-2 and thought there might be a good chance they tie it up and win in OT or have that chance at the end to get a W.

[Scrivero]

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals -146 WIN +3.082 units

Thanks SouthBayGame! And people, dont worry if your play doesnt hit when I tail it, one cant hit everything.

Starting BR: 9 units
Current BR: 12.082 units

With the next tail we will bet to win 6.041 units with plusodds and bet 6.041 units with minusodds.

BUT, dont post your play yet. I will say "GO!" when its ok to post it (as I wont tail the plays that are posted before I say it). I will give the ok in circa 6 hours from now.

[Scrivero]

GO! I will tail the next MLB-play posted in this thread!

[JPTerriers8]

Yankees ML -167 or Yankees RL +125 flip a coin

[Scrivero]

Yankees ML -167 or Yankees RL +125 flip a coin

Thanks! The first play is the Yankees ML so I will take that one in accordance with the thread rules.

5/21 play, 4.5 units:Cardinals ML -146 WIN +3.082 units
5/22 play, 6.041 units: Yankees ML -175

Starting BR: 9 units
Current BR: 12.082 units

[JPTerriers8]

Winner winner

[Scrivero]

Winner winner

Indeed! Thanks for the winner JP

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals ML -146 WIN +3.082 units
5/22 play, 6.041 units: Yankees ML WIN -175 +3.452 units

Starting BR: 9 units
Current BR: 15.534 units

Our next bet is for 7.767 units. I will post the "GO!" a bit earlier today, probably in 1 or 2 hours, so wait a while with your plays still.

[Scrivero]

GO! You (literally anyone) can now post any MLB play you want and I will tail it with half of my BR.

[jeffchitown]

Rangers +1.5 -110

[Scrivero]

Rangers +1.5 -110

Thanks!

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals ML -146 WIN +3.082 units
5/22 play, 6.041 units: Yankees ML WIN -175 +3.452 units
5/23 play, 7.767 units: Rangers +1,5 -109

Starting BR: 9 units
Current BR: 15.534 units

[JPTerriers8]

Like the play. Gonna do it myself but for first five. Don't trust there BP. Best of luck keep it rolling

[Scrivero]

Like the play. Gonna do it myself but for first five. Don't trust there BP. Best of luck keep it rolling

Thanks man, I appreciate it Good luck! This is a fun and exciting little system for sure.

[JPTerriers8]

Thanks man, I appreciate it Good luck! This is a fun and exciting little system for sure.

Of course it's fun it's WINNING, watch this thread and our collective plays win the most units this year

[Scrivero]

Of course it's fun it's WINNING, watch this thread and our collective plays win the most units this year

Lets hope so!

[2daBank]

Of course it's fun it's WINNING, watch this thread and our collective plays win the most units this year

Don't like this next play at all.

[Scrivero]

Don't like this next play at all.

I have no idea if its a good play or not, gotta roll with the system. Losses are inevitable too. I would though rather play and lose a +200 play than a -110 play as that would take a smller slice of the BR. -110 and -200 plays are the same value in this system. I lose the whole half of my BR if the play loses. Hence I would rather play a -200 play tahn a -110 play. Hopefully this system lasts forever, so going broke is the biggest fear.

[crackerjack]

Don't like this next play at all.

Not a horrible play but maybe not the best on the board. I like this thread though...fun times.

[2daBank]

I have no idea if its a good play or not, gotta roll with the system. Losses are inevitable too. I would though rather play and lose a +200 play than a -110 play as that would take a smller slice of the BR. -110 and -200 plays are the same value in this system. I lose the whole half of my BR if the play loses. Hence I would rather play a -200 play tahn a -110 play. Hopefully this system lasts forever, so going broke is the biggest fear.

Yea Honestly think you been better of with the money line here. Mostly cause I like there to be runs in this game (although line seems to be moving against me) which of course to me means the 1.5 far less valuable. Hope it cashes buddy.

[Scrivero]

Yea Honestly think you been better of with the money line here. Mostly cause I like there to be runs in this game (although line seems to be moving against me) which of course to me means the 1.5 far less valuable. Hope it cashes buddy.

I agree for sure about the ML being better but at the same time I do believe that the odds at least most of the time describe the chances of a game ending with a certain score quite well. So basically the ML "should" hit less often (when calculated the difference in odds) than the +1.5, and in theory it wouldnt matter in the long run if one takes the ML or the +1,5. Of course the odds are also there to induce bets on specific plays/teams. Like you mentioned, the line movement seems to show that either it is actually expected that the match will be a bit lower scoring than it was supposed to be in the morning, and that the Rangers is not gonna be as expected to lose as it was in the morning. It could also just show that there have been "too many" bets on the Under and for Rangers and the bookies want more bets on the Over and on Boston to decrease their risk, hence the line movement. I dont know much about how the lines move though, so that was most likely just good or bad guesses. But yea, lets hope it cashes.

@crackerjack Fun times indeed! Lets hope we cash again.

[garvardntl]

I used to do this with roulette. I made pitboss call red or black and bet it (or against it) in a predetermined fashion.

Good old times.

[Scrivero]

I used to do this with roulette. I made pitboss call red or black and bet it (or against it) in a predetermined fashion.

Good old times.

Sounds like fun! I gotta try that

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals ML -146 WIN +3.082 units
5/22 play, 6.041 units: Yankees ML WIN -175 +3.452 units
5/23 play, 7.767 units: Rangers +1,5 -109 LOSS -7.767 units

Starting BR: 9 units
Current BR: 7.767 units

Little change to rules:
- only ML bets, no RL. O/U bets are fine too.

I will give the GO! a bit later today, most likely in the afternoon. We will then bet half of 7.767 units.

We shall start another rise!

[2daBank]

Tried to prevent this one man. Let me be the override! I'll say when you should wait for different play!! I don't wanna actually give you plays, you can always look in my thread but not into feeling responsible for you losing half bankroll. I'll happily tell you when to lay off a pick tho!

[Scrivero]

GO! You can now post any MLB play that is ML or O/U and I will tail it with half of my BR.