GO! The "I tail the next poster, with half of my BR" -system

[Scrivero]

Tried to prevent this one man. Let me be the override! I'll say when you should wait for different play!! I don't wanna actually give you plays, you can always look in my thread but not into feeling responsible for you losing half bankroll. I'll happily tell you when to lay off a pick tho!

Actually, I kinda like that idea.... lets do it! Let me know if any play is really bad and I will either not play it OR if I have already played it, then I will play the opposite to override it and take the 5-10 % loss instead of losing the whole half.

[2daBank]

Will do. That one tonight I mean had no real chance imo. Most importantly loved the over so never want to take 1.5 runs in what gonna be high scoring gm, you save those plays for pitching duels like cards/lad tonight. Secondly cashner a gas can disguised as solid pitcher with his fraudulent era this season. I just didn't see much chance of you cashing as I mentioned.

Personally I hate favs and never play them over-130 but doesn't mean I don't often times like said team to win. It probably the type of bets you should stick with for this kind of thing. Liked the 1st 2 plays in thread. Not super hard to find a sizable favorite to win everyday!

[p3re]

Arizona at 1.90 (-122)

[Scrivero]

Arizona at 1.90 (-122)

Thanks! I will play this in 1 hour unless 2daBank overrides it.

[2daBank]

You can do better buddy. Hell there a decent chance chisox favs by time that game goes off. Chisox ace vs a guy that hasn't started a game in years, gotta believe he won't go more than 5 innings. If anything wait on price, I don't love chisox just don't think zona a great play..

[Scrivero]

I take that as an override. Sorry p3re, I gotta trust my overrider.

So... GO! Post a play and I will tail it (unless 2daBank hates the play). You can post another one too p3re.

By the way, 2daBank, I was gonna suggest that if you hate a play, then I would fade the play instead of looking for another. Would you be fine with that? I mean, you said that you dont want to feel responsble for me losing half the roll, but would that type of method make you feel responsible if the fade went south and lost? Would be just super easy to play all plays and then just fade the plays that you absolutely hate.

[2daBank]

Do what u do bud if it makes ya happy. I honestly dunno bout this last one, I just know that price gonna shift and has already started to get close to pickem. Don't wanna see you playing a team at -122 and wake up to see they dogs.

[2daBank]

I see chisox are actually already favs at pinny.

[Scrivero]

Do what u do bud if it makes ya happy. I honestly dunno bout this last one, I just know that price gonna shift and has already started to get close to pickem. Don't wanna see you playing a team at -122 and wake up to see they dogs.

Yea I think the way to go is to tail all plays but to fade the plays you hate. And no worries if the play that you say sounds bad and I fade would actually end up winning. You are not suggesting to play anything, you are merely saying that the play posted by someone else sounds like a bad idea, which is not the same as "fade it". Its on me if I listen and moreover if I decide to fade the play.

So:

5/21 play, 4.5 units: Cardinals ML -146 WIN +3.082 units
5/22 play, 6.041 units: Yankees ML WIN -175 +3.452 units
5/23 play, 7.767 units: Rangers +1,5 -109 LOSS -7.767 units
5/24 play, 3,8835 units: White Sox ML -105

You definitely saw the line movement coming man, great stuff. No matter if Arizona loses or not, it would have been a terrible play to play at -122 when its already now at -103.

[Scrivero]

Well, the game is not over but its probably going to lose, even though White Sox could still come back, 6-8 right now. The problem that I have is that I get bored very easily, especially when I lose. Hence I quit/modify my systems too easily. Im doing it again. I think that evrything is a learning experience though and lead to finding something very suitable and fun.

What I will do now/what I did is/was:
- I put the remaining 3.8 units on Pittsburgh (Ice-Hockey)
- If thay wins, I will start betting half of my BR on a clear favorite posted by anyone to this thread or some other. I will choose the play quickly though, not gonna research anything on the teams etc. Will just tail one play.
- Otherwise the rules with the BR and bet amounts are the same as before.
- If the Pitts game loses, then I will just take a little or longer break from MLB betting. Its been fun but as a novice when it comes to MLB its kind of expensive Dont feel like putting much more into it righg now.

Anyways, lets see what we can do tomorrow, good night!

[jeffchitown]

Your system is bad mlb is a numbers game. Anytime you put most your bankroll on one game your asking for trouble. I went 4 for 2 in mlb yesterday just happens 1 of my 2 losses were one i told you. Today so far im 2 and 1 in mlb. I risk about 1.5% of my bankroll each bet max 2.5%.

[Jolly_Rancher]

Tips for betting MLB:

1. Only bet moneyline odds +140 through -125.

2. Every morning, write down odds of each team. Look for odds that start moving in one direction, then heavily swing the other way. This is a sign of sharp money.

3. Use Sagarin MLB pitcher ratings to compare starting pitchers. Pitchers that get lots of K's are good bets for FF spreads and unders, unless they are facing a top 5 slugging percentage offense.

Edit: I hope that the Pens pull through so that you get to keep on playing.

[Scrivero]

Your system is bad mlb is a numbers game. Anytime you put most your bankroll on one game your asking for trouble. I went 4 for 2 in mlb yesterday just happens 1 of my 2 losses were one i told you. Today so far im 2 and 1 in mlb. I risk about 1.5% of my bankroll each bet max 2.5%.

I agree totally, no question about that. I should be doing it as you mention but I just cant keep it up (cant keep consistent, long term), I get bored and end up gambling. Its always fun but it just eats the BR after a while.

[Scrivero]

Tips for betting MLB:

1. Only bet moneyline odds +140 through -125.

2. Every morning, write down odds of each team. Look for odds that start moving in one direction, then heavily swing the other way. This is a sign of sharp money.

3. Use Sagarin MLB pitcher ratings to compare starting pitchers. Pitchers that get lots of K's are good bets for FF spreads and unders, unless they are facing a top 5 slugging percentage offense.

Edit: I hope that the Pens pull through so that you get to keep on playing.

Thanks for the tips man! I think with those tips one would have a good chance of being profitable, and if one adds more things to consider its for sure a (theoretically) winning way to do it. And yes the Pens pulled through so I am continuing today I will do like I mentioned in the pervious post though, I will try to look for "clear favorites" and bet half of my BR on them, one per day.

I will not follow the units won/lost per day etc etc so clearly, I will just post that:
- Half of my BR on: X ML
- Current BR: XX.XX

First play coming soon! You can still suggest plays people, clear ML favs. I wont tail the first one though, I will look at posters all around the board and pick one play to tail.

[Scrivero]

Uh oh, not as easy to find a play as it sounded in my head. Not sure if this is the way to go either, just seems too timetaking too. All ideas on how to easily and quickly choose a play each day are appreciated.

[Scrivero]

5/26:
Yankees ML 2.874 units -151

Starting BR (for this thread): 9 units
Current BR: 5.874 units

- So I will be betting circa half of my BR, dont feel like putting any extra time on even calculating the exact half.
- Im also thinking of always betting so that I will have a "full" number on my BR, such a 3 or 8 or 12.5 or 5.5 etc.
- Im also wondering if I should do so that if I get to a "full" number, such as 10 or 20 or 30 units, then I will "save" most of that and start again from e.g. 5 units or 10 units. If I lose that, then I can go to the savings. I will see what to do.

[Scrivero]

Alright, I think my MLB systems are coming to an end. Not having the time = Not putting in the time = Bad results.

Lets try one more thing with the remaining 3 units. I will make a play but wont post what I play. That is because I have noticed that I havent made some plays because I was aftaid how odd the plays look and probably afraid of the possible criticism. The criticism, and bad plays are very much ok to point out because Im no capper, I dont even know MLB. So lets try to bet whatever I feel sounds good and not reveal the actual play.

5/27:
Team X RL -1,5 3 units

I will post the plays after theyve hit. Not gonna post the losing plays.

[Scrivero]

5/27:
Team X RL -1,5 3 units
- And the team was....... Giants! at +170 RL -1.5. They almost blew it after a 5-0 lead.

Current BR: 8.1 units. Starting BR was 9 units.

So I will keep doing these "hidden" plays. I would not have done the Giants -1,5 if I was still posting my plays prior to games. Because of the reasons explained in the previous post. So now I can just do play based on how they feel and not even post them if they lose.

I will also start a "Units taken out from the BR" stat. I will take out 1.1 units now to tail the LakerCrazy guy's next total. So the BR is:

BR in play: 7 units.
Units taken out: 1.1 units
"Total" BR: 8.1 units
Starting BR: 9 units

The next play will be for half the BR again, so 3.5 units.

I understand that its probably a bit odd to follow this thread, as the plays come only after the games... but you can still follow the progress and give some ideas. Not sure if anyone would actually tail these plays because I dont have skills in capping. Maybe I will make the plays visible again at some point.

[Scrivero]

5/28
Team X 3.6 units RL -1.5

I definitely could get loads of questions about this play if I posted it. So again Im just gonna play and see how it goes I will again post the play after the game is over (or if its like 10-0 at some point) if it wins. If it loses, I wont reveal it. I can reveal that its one of the 12 very early games today and I bet on an away team, I might reveal more in the future

BR in play: 7.1 units.
Units taken out (to tail LakerCrazy): 1.0 units
"Total" BR: 8.1 units
Starting BR: 9 units

[JassieJames]

You have a new system every week.

[Scrivero]

You have a new system every week.

Yea it seems so Ive stopped making a new thread for each new system now though, kinda. This current thread is already on its 3rd system too But yea, I keep making new systems until I find a one that suits my schedule and at the same time keeps winning. Either that or until I lose this system's remaining 8.1 units, its a bit costly to test all this stuff.

[Scrivero]

Update to BR:

BR in play: 6.1 units.
Units taken out (to tail LakerCrazy): 1.0 units
Units taken out (to tail Machine Choice): 1.0 units
Total BR: 8.1 units
Starting BR: 9 units

And today is the 3.6 unit RL -1.5 play for an away Team X with odds of +xxx

[ken23lau]

How is this even a "system" lol

[Scrivero]

Youre kinda right. It was a system when this thread started. Then it changed to an experiment, and now its another experiment. Someone please go find some scientific definitions of a system though, I think we might still fall under that category The system being: "Choosing plays based on intuition but not posting the plays in order to avoid going against my intuition in the next plays because of the fear of being critizised".

[Scrivero]

Alright, looks very much like my play and my two tails are failing. Hence I will put all my eggs in one basket and try for once to actually cap a total. So I bet Cubs/Dodgers Under 6.5 with +102 for 2.5 units (both have good pitchers and Dodgers suck against lefties). And Im not afraid to say this play because if it loses (and my otehr plays/tails lose), then the possible comments in hindsight wont affect the future plays as there wont be any, as I wont invest more on MLB this season. If I win... well, then I think that I will give capping totals one shot. In any case, betting MLB has been fun, too bad its just so difficult lol.

[Scrivero]

Alright, I lost them all. This should be the end of my MLB for the year........ but guess what! I have a new system! A supersystem that combines all of my circa 10 systems from the last 6 weeks! I will start a new thread for it and I will start it already today if I have the time