MLB Leans ~ Memorial Day 2009

[Dexter]

Monday 5/25-

marlins +110 - the phillies just took 2 of 3 in Yankee Stadium and i can see a letdown here in game 1 vs the marlins. moyer goes for philly, and hes had a 12.09/2.21 in his last 3. volstad is solid away from home with a 2.96/1.11

cards +110 - have to back carpenter whenever hes an underdog this year - a world class ace

rangers -110 (Autobet - 3x) - hughes has a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3, while harrison a whip that is 1.00 or < in his last 3

tigers -130 3x - meche has an era/whip of 6.19/1.62 in his last 3, while verlander is at 1.27/.79. in his career vs the royaks, jv has a 2.43/1.12 and the tigers have won 8 of his 11 starts vs the royals

*whitesox (RL) and giants (RL) are potential auto-bets depending on the total going down to 7.5

___________________

under nuggets 209 (3x) - last 5 laker @ nugget games have avg'd 193ppg

[Dexter]

Belmont first post at 1pm eastern tomorrow - sneak away from your BBQ's like me and lets gamble

http://forum.sbrforum.com/horse-racing-betting/186683-belmont-park-monday-5-25-a.html#post1875957

[jellobiafra]

Man it would have been nice to have Harrison in a Braves uniform this year. Or Andrus. Or even Saltalamaccia. The Rangers absolutely robbed the Braves on that Texeira deal.

[Dexter]

you down for belmont jello?

[jellobiafra]

Ahhh. I don't know about the ponies tomorrow Dex. I'm gonna be out and about. I might pop in for a few races though. Good luck.

[johnnymapalo]

Monday 5/25-

marlins (ML) - the phillies just took 3 of 4 in Yankee Stadium and i can see a letdown here in game 1 vs the marlins. moyer goes for philly, and hes had a 12.09/2.21 in his last 3. volstad is solid away from home with a 2.96/1.11

cards (ML) - have to back carpenter whenever hes an underdog this year - a world class ace

rangers (ML) (Autobet - 3x) - hughes has a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3, while harrison a whip that is 1.00 or < in his last 3

tigers (ML) 3x - meche has an era/whip of 6.19/1.62 in his last 3, while verlander is at 1.27/.79. in his career vs the royaks, jv has a 2.43/1.12 and the tigers have won 8 of his 11 starts vs the royals

*whitesox (RL) and giants (RL) are potential auto-bets depending on the total going down to 7.5

___________________

under nuggets 209 (3x) - last 5 laker @ nugget games have avg'd 193ppg

Don't forget the Yanks/Rangers under 11.5. Yanks and Texas stinks on 1st games of series.. Usually low productive, low scoring games by both teams in game 1.

[Dexter]

Don't forget the Yanks/Rangers under 11.5. Yanks and Texas stinks on 1st games of series.. Usually low productive, low scoring games by both teams in game 1.

good info...i didnt know about that trend.

[Dexter]

the whole world is going to be on the cavs in game 4. i'll take the magic at home again in a line that will prob be +2

Game 4: magic (3x)

[ram1502]

Dex, do you pay attention to line movements in baseball as much as you do in basketball and football? I only ask because I made 7 small plays today based solely on RLM to try it out and they went 5-2 for +4.5 Units (6 of them were underdogs). Rockies, Phillies, Padres, Orioles, Giants, Twins, and Angels all had RLM with only the Orioles and Giants losing. All of the winners would have covered the Run Line as well. I'm just wondering if you think this is a coincidence. I know BigMoneyMan makes a lot of his plays based on exclusively line movements but I was just curious as to how much attention you pay to line movements in baseball. Also, are these plays booked or are they just early leans pending on the line movements? If you want to PM me, feel free. Thanks in advance.

[Dexter]

ram - i replied in the other thread

[danrman]

Belmont first post at 1pm eastern tomorrow - sneak away from your BBQ's like me and lets gamble

http://forum.sbrforum.com/horse-raci...ml#post1875957

now thats a gamblin fool.. sounds alot like me

[Dexter]

now thats a gamblin fool.. sounds alot like me

always bet the ponies on memorial day....

[hoop guru]

Carpenter does not like facing this brewer lineup. I am leaning towards brewers team total over 3.5 (-130).

[Dexter]

Carpenter does not like facing this brewer lineup. I am leaning towards brewers team total over 3.5 (-130).

carpenter does have a career 5.30/1.50 era/whip vs milw, but he hasnt faced them since 2006.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=260804124

much different lineup now (granted its better) but that era that carpenter has vs milw is kind of a throw away for me being that he hasnt faced this new group yet.

[thegenix]

Dexter where do you get your pitching stats for these games? I know there are a ton of site out there that have it just wondering which one you use the most?

[BmoreBucco]

As you can see, I'm a Bucco fan, but I promise you I don't ever bet them blindly. I do however know the team very well. They were struggling big time offensively going into Sunday and then came up with a 16-hit ninth inning feel-good comeback victory. They rested both Adam LaRocche and McLouth and are already in Chicago to face the 0-6 road trip Cubs traveling home to face the Bucs with righty Dempster on the hill. He's good and has a great track record at home, but the line at +159 with Maholm on the mound screams value. He's still under the radar for now, so I think it's worth a stab.

Dex, I love Carpenter as a dog, especially after the Brewers handed it to the Cards in St. Louis. I doubt Carpenter is a dog one more time this season. He's nasty.

As far as Marlins go, I hear you on Moyer, I think he is done. I'm just leary of going against that Phils line-up on Memorial Day game at home. I'm thinking over is the way to go.

I can't decide on whether to go Rangers ML or over. There is a reason that line is 11.5. Maybe both?

The O's are something like 1 and a season and a half on Sundays. Tomorrows game is Sunday on a Monday. I'll take my chances on the better Toronto team.

Go Pens!

[rezkoness69]

anyone else like doug davis and the D-backs tomorrow vs the padres?

[kmarinouofm]

tomorrow i like

Dodgers and Detroit both big...

[BmoreBucco]

anyone else like doug davis and the D-backs tomorrow vs the padres?

Actually, I really do. It's the one I meant to comment on, but didn't. The Padres sweeping the struggling, big-name Cubs is giving this line great value in my opinion. Doug Davis is a much better pitcher than the his numbers show. Gaudin is not very good and had a mirage of a last outing against a weak San Fran line-up last time out. Taking into account the Fathers haven't won on the road since April 28th, I love the underachieving as-of-yet D-Backs squad at a very reasonable -121 as of 2:10 AM est. The more I think about it the more I like it. Thanks for the reminder Rez!

[rezkoness69]

yup, seems like a good one Bucco...might parlay it with the cards, im liking that one a lot too. I would re-think the marlins/phils. Although moyer has been shitty as of late, he is 12-1 against the marlins all-time, I believe. Also volstad has been giving up way too many home runs this year, couple that with a strong, hot philly offense at home and it looks to me like the phils are the bet.

[tbill11]

I don't usually differentiate between heavy and light plays...they're usually all the same for me, but I'm thinking Dodgers HEAVY tomorrow.

Stults has never lost against Colorado, De La Rosa has never one against LA.
Stults is 2.29/.92 in his last three, De La Rosa is 4.82/1.18 in his last three
Dodgers just lost with Billingsley on the hill, Rockies are on a two game win streak

I expect the Dodgers to bounce back big tomorrow and pummel the Rockies. Take these dogs and grab some crumbs!

[kmarinouofm]

yeah i was thinking pretty much the same.. plus the dodgers just lost a series against the angeles..

[danrman]

i like mil small and your picks look very solid... you could get detroit looking ahead to facing grienke but verlander is so solid.. good luck w/ the horsees

[Jerry Seinfeld]

I really like your Texas and Detroit picks. Guess that's why they are autobets. The under looks very sexy in the Tex/NYY game.

[Jimbo42]

What up!
Early stuff....

Booked:
Atlanta -1.5 +115

St. Louis -105
St. Louis -1.5 +175

Baltimore -120

GL

[Dexter]

"

[Dexter]

anyone else like doug davis and the D-backs tomorrow vs the padres?

thats a slick play....i didnt realize the padres win streak was all at home. reality check in the desert today. i may play this now..

[peterpan19]

1 play so far for me:
ARIZONA big...they will end the streak today...Davis will be better today...trust me, he was still shocked about the death of Schoenweis wife...plus Davis always pitches great against SD as his ERA for the last 3 years is Under 2.5...

I will take a look at all the other games later...but Verlander is appealing as always and I really would like to get my money back from yesterday (maybe 5 Innings is the right play here)...

...plus I somehow like Pit as a huge underdog today...

GL

[jellobiafra]

Anybody else like the Jays at even money to bust out today? Familiar setting back in the AL East, Gascan Guthrie on the hill for the O's. I can envision TOR putting up about 12 runs this afternoon.

[showtime2000]

thats a slick play....i didnt realize the padres win streak was all at home. reality check in the desert today. i may play this now..

Dex, Arizona is 12-3 last 2 years first home game after road trip.

[macadams]

One quick note on the possibility of a "let down effect" for the Phillies today. They know how to be on the lookout for that now, and try to avoid it, because in that first game of the season the seremonial stole away from their focus, and they fell behind before they really knew the season had started again - they will remember this today. Moyer pitched that game too. Think they pride themselves om being consumate pros, I played Philly last night right after the winning run crossed the plate thinking the line would move. It didn't, but I have a unit on Philly.

[t-bone]

Anybody else like the Jays at even money to bust out today? Familiar setting back in the AL East, Gascan Guthrie on the hill for the O's. I can envision TOR putting up about 12 runs this afternoon.

I have my eye on the Tor/Balt OVER right now........Tallet is not dominating and you already labeled Guthrie.

Other leans:

Minn/Boston Under 9
Royals +114
Jays -108

[TodaysAction]

Something to dig into a little bit about JV in his last start. Compare that to his previous two/three outings and you should see something that might get you to think twice. Not trying to sway anyone one way or the other, just want people to look it up and see what I knew/learned/saw.

[jellobiafra]

Something to dig into a little bit about JV in his last start. Compare that to his previous two/three outings and you should see something that might get you to think twice. Not trying to sway anyone one way or the other, just want people to look it up and see what I knew/learned/saw.

Why do you have to be so cryptic? No offense man, but can't you just share whatever it is you discovered? I'm still a little annoyed at your "lesson" from yesterday, and this type of post is setting me off again.

[jellobiafra]

One quick note on the possibility of a "let down effect" for the Phillies today. They know how to be on the lookout for that now, and try to avoid it, because in that first game of the season the seremonial stole away from their focus, and they fell behind before they really knew the season had started again - they will remember this today. Moyer pitched that game too. Think they pride themselves om being consumate pros, I played Philly last night right after the winning run crossed the plate thinking the line would move. It didn't, but I have a unit on Philly.

Myers pitched that game. And Lowe pitched a 2 hitter. You guys just got beat by what might turn out to be the better team this season. It's funny to see Philly fans still making excuses for an opening day loss.

Good luck today though.