MLB - Thursday, 8/18/16

[dirtycash66]

Tigers had bases loaded 0 out and got only 1 run on a walk. That's brutal

Thats MLB

[McCarthyFam]

Tigers had bases loaded 0 out and got only 1 run on a walk. That's brutal

i'd take a push over 2 unit loss anyday

[funnyb25]

i'd take a push over 2 unit loss anyday

For sure...k rod time..lol

[stackz125]

i'd take a push over 2 unit loss anyday

LT made money on those the Tigers. I'm pretty sure he bets to win 1 unit. RL was +money so he would not have bet a whole unit.

[McCarthyFam]

LT made money on those the Tigers. I'm pretty sure he bets to win 1 unit. RL was +money so he would not have bet a whole unit.

speaking on my behalf

[funnyb25]

LT made money on those the Tigers. I'm pretty sure he bets to win 1 unit. RL was +money so he would not have bet a whole unit.

He definitely broke even on the game. To win 1 unit on favs. Risk 1 unit on dogs

[LT Profits]

He definitely broke even on the game. To win 1 unit on favs. Risk 1 unit on dogs

Actually stackz125 is right regarding how I bet in real life. It is just MUCH easier to keep records at SBR the conventional way.

[funnyb25]

Actually stackz125 is right regarding how I bet in real life. It is just MUCH easier to keep records at SBR the conventional way.

So you don't even wager the way you advertise? Wow...

[LT Profits]

I bet TO WIN 2.5% of BR 99% of the time. Just that when you bet 1000 games a year, don't want to do extra math with record keeping when calculating using base method literally takes seconds.

[funnyb25]

At the end of the day it's the individuals decision to tail or not but I still think it's very misleading..BOL anyways...

[LT Profits]

At the end of the day it's the individuals decision to tail or not but I still think it's very misleading..BOL anyways...

Not really because its close enough in the long run, so it's really much ado about nothing. Besides it's never going to be exact because remember I bet % of BR and I recalc BR every morning. Also base record keeping works best for comparative purposes.

[funnyb25]

On another note...Salazar has now given up 14 runs in his last 2 starts plus this inning

[lakerboy]

Still beating closing line around 60% of the time, which is sure sign of a working model. I'll be fine.

Season is almost over.

[HeeluvaGuy]

On another note...Salazar has now given up 14 runs in his last 2 starts plus this inning

The over is 14-5 with this ump and his games are averaging 10.6 runs. He's the 4th most profitable over ump this season.

[No coincidences]

Still beating closing line around 60% of the time, which is sure sign of a working model. I'll be fine.

You're consistently beating the closer this season, yet you're in the red.

You have been getting crushed for two years straight on plays where you get an "outstanding" number vs. the closing number.

See what I'm getting at yet?

[LT Profits]

Season is almost over.

Right, my main point is that model is beating closers at the same rate as my +93 season last year, so no reason to overhaul things.

[LT Profits]

You're consistently beating the closer this season, yet you're in the red.

You have been getting crushed for two years straight on plays where you get an "outstanding" number vs. the closing number.

See what I'm getting at yet?

You are missing a critical point. It is ALWAYS good to beat the closer even when you are losing because it means you lose less. So even with a losing record, beating closers has enabled me to limit the damage to -5 units and keep me in a position where I could still easily finish in the black.

[funnyb25]

The over is 14-5 with this ump and his games are averaging 10.6 runs. He's the 4th most profitable over ump this season.

Yet LT has the under....prolly didn't adjust model for the new Salazar

[funnyb25]

Salazar done after 1 inning...hahaha

[LT Profits]

The over is 14-5 with this ump and his games are averaging 10.6 runs. He's the 4th most profitable over ump this season.

I notice from your comments that you put too much emphasis on this year only. I have Johnson neutral, umpire ratings are based on last three seasons (well last two full seasons plus current one).

[LT Profits]

Salazar done after 1 inning...hahaha

The "new" Salazar is hurt, can't cap that.

[funnyb25]

The "new" Salazar is hurt, can't cap that.

He gave up 10 runs in his 2 previous starts before this...you can cap that

[No coincidences]

You are missing a critical point. It is ALWAYS good to beat the closer even when you are losing because it means you lose less. So even with a losing record, beating closers has enabled me to limit the damage to -5 units and keep me in a position where I could still easily finish in the black.

I fully understand that concept, but you are missing my point.

If you aren't watching games and/or can't pick winners, everything you just said is completely and utterly irrelevant -- unless your goal as a gambler is simply to "lose less."

[No coincidences]

The "new" Salazar is hurt, can't cap that.

Have you watched him pitch (or try to pitch) recently?

(operative word being watched)

[LT Profits]

He gave up 10 runs in his 2 previous starts before this...you can cap that

But he still has great YTD numbers, so a couple of bad starts (without injury reported) doesn't bother me and it sometimes adds value in the next start.

[funnyb25]

Have you watched him pitch (or try to pitch) recently?

(operative word being watched)

10 earned runs past 2 starts didn't change his model at all..lol

[funnyb25]

But he still has great YTD numbers, so a couple of bad starts (without injury reported) doesn't bother me and it sometimes adds value in the next start.

Yet you lost every play. I really am starting to wonder if you even wager real money

[HeeluvaGuy]

I notice from your comments that you put too much emphasis on this year only. I have Johnson neutral, umpire ratings are based on last three seasons (well last two full seasons plus current one).

I agree that I tend to focus on the season at hand. I also get that you have a different approach. No biggie.

Also, I read (am not currently watching), that Salazaar was throwing in the pen after he was yanked. Would seem to indicate that he's not hurt.

[LT Profits]

I fully understand that concept, but you are missing my point.

If you aren't watching games and/or can't pick winners, everything you just said is completely and utterly irrelevant -- unless your goal as a gambler is simply to "lose less."

You (and seemingly everybody else) are overreacting, I am down FIVE freaking units after over 700 plays, so I think I am still doing a good job of finding value. And you have seen the imbalance of bad losses vs. lucky wins I have had this year. So again, I will be fine and, despite what your claim, I would not be where I am without the good BTCL rate.

[No coincidences]

So again, I will be fine and, despite what your claim, I would not be where I am without the good BTCL rate.

You said the exact opposite recently -- that both this year and last year, you've been losing the plays consistently when you handily BTCL.

So which is it?

[LT Profits]

10 earned runs past 2 starts didn't change his model at all..lol

Emphasis on 2 starts. Nobody should adjust for 2 bad starts when a guy is having a great year, that would be an extreme overreaction. But why do I even need to say this, that should be obvious.

[LT Profits]

[QUOTE=No coincidences;26149550]You said the exact opposite recently -- that both this year and last year, you've been losing the plays consistently when you handily BTCL.

How am I saying the opposite, they are two different things. I have losing record on game with extreme BTCL of 30+. But I am still in good shape because I limited the damage by getting those great lines (i.e., lost less), and I was over +100 units last year on games where I beat closers by < 30.

[No coincidences]

Emphasis on 2 starts. Nobody should adjust for 2 bad starts when a guy is having a great year, that would be an extreme overreaction. But why do I even need to say this, that should be obvious.

If you'd watched him pitch recently, you'd know his velocity was down and something like this was no surprise.

He now has an ERA well over 6 in his last 8 starts, BTW.

[funnyb25]

If you'd watched him pitch recently, you'd know his velocity was down and something like this was no surprise.

He now has an ERA well over 6 in his last 8 starts, BTW.

8 starts doesn't matter either man...it's all about what happened first 3 months of the season

[LT Profits]

Yet you lost every play. I really am starting to wonder if you even wager real money

WTF does this even mean? What do you mean I lost every play?