MLB - Thursday, 8/18/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Tigers -113 (Heritage)
Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 349-362-18, -5.36

[44 Mag]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Tigers -113 (Heritage)
Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 349-362-18, -5.36

You figure the Red Sox are tired, huh? Plus Bucholtz sucks & Ortiz is resting. Tigers haven't hit worth a damn lately.

[44 Mag]

Cubs
LAD
Miami
Cleveland
SF

Cubs must be 70% plus.

[LT Profits]

Cubs
LAD
Miami
Cleveland
SF

Cubs must be 70% plus.

If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 72% (-257)
Dodgers 61% (-156)
Miami 66% (-194)
Cleveland 64% (-178)

[44 Mag]

If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.

Some day I will get it right.

[LT Profits]

If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.

To be fair, Giants were close at 59% (-144)

[44 Mag]

Hey, thoughts on AZ/SD over 8.5. Couple weak pitchers going ..........

[GP]

LT, couple of questions for you.

Does your model simulate each game many times?

Does your model ever expect double-digit Team Totals like we have seen lately(for example yesterday Min, Cws, Ari, Was, Col all scored 10 or more)?

[LT Profits]

Hey, thoughts on AZ/SD over 8.5. Couple weak pitchers going ..........

And yet model still gets just 7.4

Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors

[LT Profits]

LT, couple of questions for you.

Does your model simulate each game many times?

Does your model ever expect double-digit Team Totals like we have seen lately?

No just once based on default lineups, which I could change any time to produce new result.

If you mean double-digit GAME totals, then sure I have seen them quite a bit, i.e., just about every game in Colorado. If you literally mean TEAM totals, then NEVER, as it should be.

[Seaweed]

LT all those bets and youre -???

Time to change system

[44 Mag]

And yet model still gets just 7.4

Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors

Thanks .

[LT Profits]

LT all those bets and youre -???

Time to change system

Still beating closing line around 60% of the time, which is sure sign of a working model. I'll be fine.

[rollie_t651]

Good luck LT

[HeeluvaGuy]

And yet model still gets just 7.4

Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors

The over is 33-23 at Petco this season, FYI.

[LT Profits]

The over is 33-23 at Petco this season, FYI.

More to do with deflated totals. Model still shows 3% park run suppression for both righty and lefty bats

[Jayvegas420]

LT all those bets and youre -???

Time to change system

Fukk off seaweed. Take you shit to a thread that condones your trrolling.

[Jayvegas420]

GL today LT

[HeeluvaGuy]

More to do with deflated totals. Model still shows 3% park run suppression for both righty and lefty bats

I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.

[LT Profits]

I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.

Model park factors are longer term than just this season. It IS a factor though because the 3% is down from recent years.

[LT Profits]

I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.

Also, don't confuse park factors with shitty pitching. Padres have one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, which has contributed to the uptick in Petco scoring.

[Redscot]

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...mid=0&sort=2,d

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=0&season=2015

[HeeluvaGuy]

Also, don't confuse park factors with shitty pitching. Padres have one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, which has contributed to the uptick in Petco scoring.

Well, it's the same shitty pitching on the home and on the road, so I'm not sure that's the answer. But I agree that there's shitty pitching aplenty in this game.

[eddycash]

Any value on Brewers? I see Cubs but they are -300

[LT Profits]

Any value on Brewers? I see Cubs but they are -300

Look at the Milwaukee prices though. Not much variance from the +257 per the 60%ers.

[stackz125]

Under in Boston game? 9.5 +115

[funnyb25]

How's the Tigers pen been lately? Boyd got a million pitches thru 3

[McCarthyFam]

How's the Tigers pen been lately? Boyd got a million pitches thru 3

he's fine. average pitches per inning is around 15. at 52 thru 3. nothing to be concerned about thus far.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Tigers -113 (Heritage)
Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
White Sox / Indians UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)

[dirtycash66]

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Tigers -113 (Heritage)
Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
White Sox / Indians UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)

Good call on the tigers

[funnyb25]

Good call on the tigers

Doesn't matter...those 2 plays would hit in 2026...long term man

[dirtycash66]

I just don't understand how a person makes 90 units in one season and can't seem to make 1 unit the next season .. i guess that just goes to show how unpredictable MLB is. Time to save my money and wait for football to start

[funnyb25]

[funnyb25]

Tigers had bases loaded 0 out and got only 1 run on a walk. That's brutal