MLB - Saturday, 6/11/16

[44 Mag]

How can you even back a team on an 8 game losing streak? Seems kind of stupid to me. I wouldn't even ever think about putting money in that spot.

He says, there is no such thing as streaks, or they don't count in his model, something to that effect. Remember, he says, not me.

[RavensFan2k3]

LT how do you have Paxton and Colby Lewis rated?

[pocketrockets42]

He says, there is no such thing as streaks, or they don't count in his model, something to that effect. Remember, he says, not me.

Probably the single dumbest thing I've ever heard in my life.

[funnyb25]

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Phillies +150 (Heritage)
Royals +127 (Heritage)
Dodgers -114 (Heritage)
Angels -112 (Heritage)

Best thing to do in this spot is play both sides since no one knows what this even means,,,. That way we get a winner today...

[RavensFan2k3]

Best thing to do in this spot is play both sides since no one knows what this even means,,,. That way we get a winner today...

[44 Mag]

Best thing to do in this spot is play both sides since no one knows what this even means,,,. That way we get a winner today...

Some folks are just flat out stubborn, my way or the highway. Get out, you guys are dumb. LOL.

[Slanina]

How can you even back a team on an 8 game losing streak? Seems kind of stupid to me. I wouldn't even ever think about putting money in that spot.

For the second year and 349th time, his model does not factor in streaks/trends. Each game is its on entity.

[KavkasToxin]

Since 2004, teams on an 8+ game losing streak are 173-213 with an avg line of +130.8/-146.2

You wouldn't be profitable if you blindly backed them or bet against them though you would have actually lost LESS if you backed them every time. Just something to think about.

173-213 (-0.58, 44.8%)

avg line: 130.8 / -146.2

on / against: -$119 / -$1,899

ROI: -0.3% / -3.2%

[KavkasToxin]

Funny stat. Teams who have lost EXACTLY 8 in a row are actually slightly profitable to back.

82-89 (-0.34, 48.0%)

avg line: 122.4 / -136.1

on / against: +$624 / -$1,463

ROI: +3.3% / -5.9%

[funnyb25]

Funny stat. Teams who have lost EXACTLY 8 in a row are actually slightly profitable to back.

82-89 (-0.34, 48.0%)

avg line: 122.4 / -136.1

on / against: +$624 / -$1,463

ROI: +3.3% / -5.9%

None of this matters... each game is its own entity... - LT

[44 Mag]

For the second year and 349th time, his model does not factor in streaks/trends. Each game is its on entity.

We all know that. I guess the question is, don't you ever have a feeling for a game, follow a team's recent trip, home stand, hitting etc. That's all these guys are looking for. Sometimes the answer is right there in front of you, and going with a computer model might not always be the best way, especially if it isn't working. LT was the best last year, the BEST. 100 + units. Maybe things have changed, I don't know. BOL to him a s always. He always helps me.

[KavkasToxin]

None of this matters... each game is its own entity... - LT

well +3.3% ROI is hardly indicative of anything and can probably chalk it up to variance.

I was showing these stats as supportive of his stance.

[funnyb25]

We all know that. I guess the question is, don't you ever have a feeling for a game, follow a team's recent trip, home stand, hitting etc. That's all these guys are looking for. Sometimes the answer is right there in front of you, and going with a computer model might not always be the best way, especially if it isn't working. LT was the best last year, the BEST. 100 + units. Maybe things have changed, I don't know. BOL to him a s always. He always helps me.

Guy is an asset for sure... people see what he did last season and expect it every year now (I myself fall victim to these expectations at times...im no saint and im the first to admit it...)

The only thing now that will give me closure is this Dodgers, or Giants play, not sure what it is...

[Slanina]

We all know that. I guess the question is, don't you ever have a feeling for a game, follow a team's recent trip, home stand, hitting etc. That's all these guys are looking for. Sometimes the answer is right there in front of you, and going with a computer model might not always be the best way, especially if it isn't working. LT was the best last year, the BEST. 100 + units. Maybe things have changed, I don't know. BOL to him a s always. He always helps me.

Yes, for sure. Plenty of games I wanted no part in but tailed. I'm a casual gambler though so my handicapping isn't very extensive. And results last season convince me to see this through.

[44 Mag]

Yes, for sure. Plenty of games I wanted no part in but tailed. I'm a casual gambler though so my handicapping isn't very extensive. And results last season convince me to see this through.

[grey area]

been hunting for the biggest winner today and down to four

back soon GL and God bless you all he as many does not judge the ones who lie ahead when take from evil foe

[grey area]

How many times when more active this guy here takes the time to set up stuff and send invites for it

here is one in my pile we need to figure out guys CHC MIL PIT LAD

[LT Profits]

;&amp;amp;lt;br&amp;amp;gt;&amp;lt;br&am p;gt;&lt;br&gt;<br><br>
OK, I agree, can you guys mail ne my HOF ballot so I can include this guy Nola. WOW, 3 2/3 innings and only 4 runs. Guy is the balls.

Today was his worst start of the year, cut him some slack.

[LT Profits]

How can you even back a team on an 8 game losing streak? Seems kind of stupid to me. I wouldn't even ever think about putting money in that spot.

I ignore streaks because that have nothing to do with today's game. You have to Handicap each game on its own in a vacuum. Sometimes, streaks give an edge to the opposite side by padding today's line, or once in a while streaks continue because oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust for something. Either way, you have to cap today's game on its own merit.

[LT Profits]

LT how do you have Paxton and Colby Lewis rated?

Paxton is significantly better, key reason for my Seattle 61%.

[funnyb25]

Great pick on Royals...

[LT Profits]

Best thing to do in this spot is play both sides since no one knows what this even means,,,. That way we get a winner today...

I fixed it. Meant Dodgers +114.

[funnyb25]

I fixed it. Meant Dodgers +114.

[44 Mag]

Today was his worst start of the year, cut him some slack.

I'll cut him some slack, you stop telling me and everyone else he is one of the top ten pitchers in the MLB, because he is not and you should know that from a semi-rookie. I think he pitched 7 innings last year.

[mikefan1034]

Hey LT if ur were actually a good capper or to be taken seriously u would have taken advantage of Red Sox vs twins where the lines have been -133 and -140 range. But u have no clue u just go by a flawed system. Plus u prob never even played a day of sports in ur life, ur just a computer guy that crunches numbers. Actually watch a baseball game maybe u would see how flawed ur system is

[JassieJames]

LT, are you not posting through twitter any longer? Missed your plays earlier.

[RavensFan2k3]

Paxton is significantly better, key reason for my Seattle 61%.

Hopefully not tonight smh

[funnyb25]

LT has 45 plays yesterday and 4 today... i need to take girl out to dinner on 4 play nights.... less stressful...

[doubledime]

Hey LT if ur were actually a good capper or to be taken seriously u would have taken advantage of Red Sox vs twins where the lines have been -133 and -140 range. But u have no clue u just go by a flawed system. Plus u prob never even played a day of sports in ur life, ur just a computer guy that crunches numbers. Actually watch a baseball game maybe u would see how flawed ur system is

Why all the hate? You pick your games, LT will pick his. That kind of post is uncalled for IMHO. We're here to contribute, or at least that's what I thought. Good luck with your plays today.

[LT Profits]

LT, are you not posting through twitter any longer? Missed your plays earlier.

Yes they were posted on Twitter, I just double-checked.

[LT Profits]

Hey LT if ur were actually a good capper or to be taken seriously u would have taken advantage of Red Sox vs twins where the lines have been -133 and -140 range. But u have no clue u just go by a flawed system. Plus u prob never even played a day of sports in ur life, ur just a computer guy that crunches numbers. Actually watch a baseball game maybe u would see how flawed ur system is

So flawed it won 93 units last year.

And check the 60%ers in Post #8, I DID show Boston having value as model had them at 62% (-163). I just almost never lay more than -130 on anything because I bet every day of my life and don't want to risk too much on one play. I bet TO WIN 2.5% of bankroll, so once you get to -130, you are talking about risking 3.25%, which is a bit rich for my blood. But I would not criticize those that do it, I would just rather limit my risk as a personal preference.

[MMA_Oracle]

LT what's your model show for the Dodgers/Giants game- I see you're on the Dodgers but I cant get the same number as you

and in your model, which pitcher is rated higher, Kazmir or Samardzija?

[freddues]

Why all the hate? You pick your games, LT will pick his. That kind of post is uncalled for IMHO. We're here to contribute, or at least that's what I thought. Good luck with your plays today.

TRUE DAT DOUBLE--too bad these cromags can't see we all have ideas. And the one who comes out on top has the best information. A collective conscience of ideas that give you the best information. Double and Profit are creating this collective conscience. The funny part is so many are to slow to use, and profit, from the best information.

[LT Profits]

LT what's your model show for the Dodgers/Giants game- I see you're on the Dodgers but I cant get the same number as you

and in your model, which pitcher is rated higher, Kazmir or Samardzija?

Dodgers FAVORED 52% (-108)

Kazmir rated slightly better, although both pitchers rate above average.

[funnyb25]

Astros win... LT DO NOT TAKE ASTROS TOMORROW