CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Thursday 4/30/09

The_Kid · 04-30-09, 12:22 AM

I like that Toronto/KC OVER. Burres is a mess.

dfinn21 · 04-30-09, 12:24 AM

I couldn't agree more with you on LAA. I actually locked them in at +230 ML on betus. Insane value with this play.

laxdjock · 04-30-09, 12:34 AM

I like everything but TOR / KC. I really like the NYY to have a stinker of a game, as they are the antithesis of consistent this year. I may take the +190 and not sweat it out as much, in case they decide to show up.

I like Volstad against Marshall straight up, and you get +107. There is no RL as of yet (5dimes).

*edit....comments were before all of your additions this morning.....lol.*

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 01:28 AM

Yeah I am looking at that Cubs/Marlins game with special interest. I would like to take the over especially if it's 9 or so, but with no assigned totals line, it's hard to guage what the linemaker has in store for us. I estimate the line will be around 9 or 9.5. I fully believe that this game has all the ingredients of a game that will go over the total. Both teams need this game bad. Volstad is the better pitcher to be sure, but he's not the one who's ground zero for getting bombed.

It's Sean Marshall. He's green and prone to errors. He has 9 strikeouts on the year but also 4 free passes. You can't work your way out of bad situations against this Marlins squad. They either hit it out or they hit it and get out. No gray area. With or without Hanley Ramirez.

What are the Cubs more than a name? Lee just came back from injury on Wednesday, Bradley returned but he is hitting in the low .100's. This game seems to be a tale of two teams moving in different directions. Frankly I am very surprised that the Cubs are even favored in this game.

Crumbs-Play-of-the-Day

Marlins-1.5 +175 RRL

joanapoker · 04-30-09, 05:07 AM

Just want to say thx to CK for yesterdays picks! I got on board late (around 6:30 PM) but still made a nice winner (parlayed both) with those Reds and Sox picks

Thx Ck

Vonnegut · 04-30-09, 06:59 AM

Ya gotta love the line on the Angles against Burnett, one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball. Doesnt deserve a -200 I will be all over teh Halo's tonight.
Also leaning Texas (if Braden starts, they are crushing lefties) and over on Arizona/Milwaukee.

2daBank · 04-30-09, 07:47 AM

ck i really respect what you do on here. i was lookin into somthin the other nite and was wondering what you thought. im with you taken dogs for the most part and this just popped in my head. when takin the dawg go with reverse run line which i notice you do alot then go to prop where you can bet team to win by certain amount of runs every 1 ive seen if you take the dawg to win by 1 it pays ive seen anywhere from 4to1 to 8to1 seems to me then if your doggie pays plus 150 or more at -1.5 if they cover you still get the crumbs and 1 run gm nice juicy payout. just wanted to get yout thoughts and keep up the good work brother

2daBank · 04-30-09, 07:51 AM

like to day da fish -1.5 is plus 175 bodog doesnt have there props up yet but fish to win by 1 should be at the 5to1 range so 100 on fish-1.5 100 on fish to win by 1. they win by more than 1 great still up 75. but hey win by 1 400 payout! please tell me if my thinking is flaud

2daBank · 04-30-09, 08:13 AM

i know i just asked ck but value all your guys opinion let me know what you think

RoagBettor · 04-30-09, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

like to day da fish -1.5 is plus 175 bodog doesnt have there props up yet but fish to win by 1 should be at the 5to1 range so 100 on fish-1.5 100 on fish to win by 1. they win by more than 1 great still up 75. but hey win by 1 400 payout! please tell me if my thinking is flaud

I have to see this line to believe it. You're saying the prop bet of the Fish winning by just 1 run pays 4 to 1?

2daBank · 04-30-09, 08:30 AM

they not up yet but last nite lad was plus 190-1.5 and to win by 1 was 6to1

2daBank · 04-30-09, 08:31 AM

im ballparking it 4sure but it will be 4to1 at least

theplagy · 04-30-09, 08:54 AM

it's raining like a mther fker in KC right now

so if it continues to rain i think this one will be postponed

but you never know it's still 4 hours away

(just some FYI, not to get too much money stuck in that game)

Vonnegut · 04-30-09, 09:13 AM

Man I hope the days games arent rained out its my day off and I really wanted to watch some ball.

Smith · 04-30-09, 09:31 AM

I love the plays. I really like the Overs you got in the Tor/KC game and the SD/LA game. I would think one of them would be your play of the day. If the Tor/KC game doesnt get PPD, they may score 10 each. Good luck man. Love the picks.

RoagBettor · 04-30-09, 10:13 AM

I like the Rangers -1.5 today

therber2 · 04-30-09, 10:29 AM

Wow, I can't believe the Yanks are that much of a favorite! They are awful; this one IS worth taking a stab at.

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

I have to see this line to believe it. You're saying the prop bet of the Fish winning by just 1 run pays 4 to 1?

He's saying that if you take a dog on the moneyline that is +160 or so and also take the reverse runline at like +260 or so you get paid 4-1 ratio style for one game. 2 bets on the same underdog team. I am doing it today with Florida

laxdjock · 04-30-09, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Yeah I am looking at that Cubs/Marlins game with special interest.Crumbs-Play-of-the-Day

Marlins-1.5 +175 RRL

I'm glad to see we are on the same side....as this was my big play of the day. I am tempted to parlay against the yanks as a side bet.

GL all.

ragiche · 04-30-09, 10:42 AM

Picks of the day:

TB RL (5x) I know beckett is a good pitcher but tampa a home dog with garza on the mound?c'mon,I know boston is hot.But i don't think the sox can win this one with tb is desperately needs a W. (W)

Ari/Mil Over 9 (5x) Both teams are starting their bats hot.With these two pitchers on the hill (Scherzer/Suppan) this will be a high scoring affair between these two teams.

Flo ML (5x) Tailing CK

Sdg/Lad over 9 (5x) Tailing CK

Tex RL (5x) The 1st winning april for the rangers and what a perfect timing it is,Padilla who has been great against the a's and they are up against a leftie(braden) whom they are the best hitters in baseball against lefties. (L)

TheLemonDropKid · 04-30-09, 10:43 AM

Parlaying 6 ways

Padres/Dodgers over 9
Boston-110
Marlins-105 (That's where it is now-great movement overnight)
Toronto/KC over 9.5 -130 (Price also went way up on this one overnight)
Arizona-105
Marlins/Cubs over 9.5

$100.00 to win hella money!

Okay.....now I'm gonna sound like a noobie.....

I'm assuming this parlay is a "round-robin"?

For what amount do you play that to only cost $100?

Or just how do you play that in general???

ragiche · 04-30-09, 10:45 AM

So, what do you think CK? anything that i miss? Sorry if i didn't include the angels cause their offense is not that good as it would be no anderson,Guerrero.I just pass on this game but i will cheer for you all angels backers.Needs some opinions and advice.

NBA:

Bos +3 Pierce will finish off the bulls.

Hou -5 Series is already on the books.

Orl +5.5 I know Superman is not going to come to save the day but the other justice league(Lewis,Alston,Turkgulo) will finish the job.

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 11:02 AM

Yeah ragiche. I didn't place a whole lot of consideration on this play and slam down the hammer, but the crumbs are hard to ignore and I cannot let them go. The Angels have won three in a row and are getting that kind of money. C'mon man that's a no-brainer. Even if you lose you won't be giving away any vigorish. I 'll take a play like that anytime. As far as my parlay is concerned, I just went with pitchers that are a little more established than the kid.

LDK

A parlay is a wager where you choose multiple options and play a flat rate bet with much lower odds that pays a lot more money!

ragiche · 04-30-09, 11:06 AM

Thx CK.

Smith · 04-30-09, 11:06 AM

Just curious why you havent mentioned the Cards as a BIG play today. They are one of the Hottest Teams in the NL right now and match up vs the Nationals tonight at only -115. With a ML like that, im calling that my stongest play.

ragiche · 04-30-09, 11:08 AM

And CK,what do you think about my insights.(see post #21).Any suggestions?

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 11:11 AM

That line looks fishy Smith.

Why aren't the Cardinals favored by more? If we know tha Cabrera stinks, the linemaker knows Cabrera stinks. He is having a hard time adapting to the National League. Not like he was any good in the American League, but whatever. This one is gonna be a slugfest with both teams scoring over 5 runs apiece.

ragiche · 04-30-09, 11:15 AM

Smith,

I know what you mean,But i cannot push the trigger right now cause we all know that cabrera is a good pitcher and the cards haven't face him yet.I think that the nats have a good chance on winnig here SU.Don't be mistaken i'm a cards fan but i follow only where the money is.I cannot also pass this opportunity to be blown away. Additional pick Nats ML (5x).As CK said in this thread,if they win the last game they can continue winning again.My crumbs play of the day.

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by ragiche

And CK,what do you think about my insights.(see post #21).Any suggestions?

Texas looks good movement wise and Oakland is feast or famine on the road, but I am a little trouble by what I am seeing out of Tampa bay this year. Their hitting is not that timely anymore. I actually like the Red Sox in that game. And why not? Their bats are hot and they have been winning ooodles of games before their latest brush with the Tribe. of course all the rest look good. Good luck homes!

TheLemonDropKid · 04-30-09, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Yeah ragiche. I didn't place a whole lot of consideration on this play and slam down the hammer, but the crumbs are hard to ignore and I cannot let them go. The Angels have won three in a row and are getting that kind of money. C'mon man that's a no-brainer. Even if you lose you won't be giving away any vigorish. I 'll take a play like that anytime. As far as my parlay is concerned, I just went with pitchers that are a little more established than the kid.

LDK

A parlay is a wager where you choose multiple options and play a flat rate bet with much lower odds that pays a lot more money!

LOL!!! I know what a parlay is silly goose......I hust hit a desperate 4 teamer the day before yesterday that has kept me alive this week. I was asking what type of parlay you were playing (ie. round-robin 2 teamer, round-robin 3 teamer, etc.) I think I figured it out though......you are playing a round-robin 2-teamer with 6 different teams.

Thank you sweetie pie honey bun.

ragiche · 04-30-09, 11:21 AM

Thx again CK on that TB insights.

peterpan19 · 04-30-09, 11:23 AM

early pick:
TX -1 Padilla always pitched great against the A's...I just think it will continue today...and Braden always had his problems...even if Padilla sucks today I expect the Texas bats to bail him out...

GL

Killer Chihuahua · 04-30-09, 11:43 AM

winds blowing in over the centerfield wall towards home plate in KC......steady at 6mph with gusts to 20. Just some info for your over play. GL

TAPDATBOOK · 04-30-09, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

early pick:
TX -1 Padilla always pitched great against the A's...I just think it will continue today...and Braden always had his problems...even if Padilla sucks today I expect the Texas bats to bail him out...

GL

Hey Peter,
today texas pitcher is Feldman, where do you get Padilla??? thanks