2016 mlb

[iloseagain]

angels? same.. opened -125 moved to -150

hou? they won.. opened -175 moved to -200

hou was the only one to win

[pigskinhedging]

So if I am reading this correctly just using Bookmaker against home teams


Rockies W Line Movement for CUBS -> -200 -> -240
Braves W Line Movement for MIA -> -185 -> -210
TWINS W Line Movement for Angels -> +105 -> +136
Royals W Line Movement for OAK-> -105 -> -119 (Below .20 fade threshold but close)

PADRES L Line Movement for D-backs -> +100 -> +133
Detroit L Line Movement for HOU -> -175 -> -210

So still 4 wins out of 2 here. Mostly I want to see if I am looking at this correctly. The team I first list is the team with the Line moving against them and if in caps they are the home team. Thus you'd hope that the team on the far left wins if you are fading against the line movement. Is this correct? I then show the team that is the beneficiary of the Line Movement, and finally I'm showing the line per Bookmaker which is always listed per the home team. So a home dog is a positive number in my chart (SD and Twins).

[iloseagain]

^^^ i have oak opening at -115 and ending around -115.. i woudnt count that one

[iloseagain]

today twins opened at EV and now -126

[iloseagain]

stl -175 to -143
mia -180 to -130
dodgers -120 to sf -109
sd -120 to zona -107
bal -120 to tex -112

[No coincidences]

MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)

[No coincidences]

^^^ i have oak opening at -115 and ending around -115.. i woudnt count that one

You need to check your opening lines.

[No coincidences]

4-1, +6.32U last night
27-17, +17.00U thread

[iloseagain]

You need to check your opening lines.

youre right but they opened at -105 and went to -115 then.. bookmaker open -105 end -115. 10 cents..

[Louisvillekid1]

MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)

Like this

[No coincidences]

youre right but they opened at -105 and went to -115 then.. bookmaker open -105 end -115. 10 cents..

They were +106 at BOL, +102 at Pinnacle and closed at -120 at a lot of sites. Not 20 full cents across the board, but pretty close (incredible, especially because books have already been giving free money away on KC for the third year in a row).

[No coincidences]

Like this

Thanks. I'd take the Twins, but don't trust Nolasco and hate taking a favorite that opened as a dog.

[twestacott]

Coiner whats you thoughts on Miami? Openned as -180 and now down to -133 at a lot of books. RedSox dropping as well from -150 to -133 at a lot of books.

[StackinGreen]

Under city

Looks like you're doing well though, NoCoin, keep it up

[KRIT]

MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)

Was going to play Twins but not feeling laying -120 with them so I'm gonna take your Twins TT over. GL to us. You playing much of the NBA playoffs? Don't think I saw your thread over there.

[BigDofBA]

St. Louis went from -179 to -133.

That means the Cardinals have to be a play.....

Wainwright shouldn't be juiced bc he just isn't the pitcher he used to be but that's too much line movement imo.

I'm also on the Twins again today.

[iloseagain]

St. Louis went from -179 to -133.

That means the Cardinals have to be a play.....

Wainwright shouldn't be juiced bc he just isn't the pitcher he used to be but that's too much line movement imo.

I'm also on the Twins again today.

im just curious as to what the theory is behind playing against these huge line movements? i always thought it was smart to play the other way..

[pigskinhedging]

Thanks. I'd take the Twins, but don't trust Nolasco and hate taking a favorite that opened as a dog.

I am just looking at Covers main page I'll check Bookmaker but wouldn't the pick here be fading the Twins? Bookmaker opened at +100 (EV) and is now -120. Given that you like the TT for the Twins, Game Total and Angels on Money Line might be good picks as well although for me I don't know how much I want to throw at this one.

[pigskinhedging]

Depending on who's book you use to track there is also line movement for the Cubs of greater than .20 which is mind-boggling given that they are laying over 300. So based on my quick check you could add these teams to the picks:

LAA
COL

[BigDofBA]

im just curious as to what the theory is behind playing against these huge line movements? i always thought it was smart to play the other way..

I'm 4-0 fading these this year. I can't explain it but I'm going to roll with it until it stops winning.

[iloseagain]

I'm 4-0 fading these this year. I can't explain it but I'm going to roll with it until it stops winning.

haha fair enough.. quite a few today.. GL

[iloseagain]

stl/mia/laa/bos/bal parlay.. fading all those movements.. lets see what happens. 1x pays 21.8x

[pigskinhedging]

stl/mia/laa/bos/bal parlay.. fading all those movements.. lets see what happens. 1x pays 21.8x

KC Royals... Oak line moved from -110 -> -147

[twestacott]

KC Royals... Oak line moved from -110 -> -147

That's due to pitching change though. Sonny Gray is now the starter so does not apply.

[BigDofBA]

Twins have had several chances to have big innings but can't get guys home from 2nd and 3rd with one out.

[iloseagain]

damn min had the chance last inning.. 2nd and 3rd no outs and they couldnt do it

[BigDofBA]

Really needed that Homer by the Twins. Whewwww

[pigskinhedging]

That's due to pitching change though. Sonny Gray is now the starter so does not apply.

Shit I missed that. So if there is any pitching change at all, scratch it? Or does the pitching change have to be one way or the other or just any change at all? Royals are screwing up a Parlay I have with Boston ML and Golden State -13. 4 more ABs but damn I wouldn't have included them.

[BigDofBA]

Shit I missed that. So if there is any pitching change at all, scratch it? Or does the pitching change have to be one way or the other or just any change at all? Royals are screwing up a Parlay I have with Boston ML and Golden State -13. 4 more ABs but damn I wouldn't have included them.

Just because a line moves more than 20 cents doesn't mean you need to lose your mind and bet the farm.

With that said, I've been trying to make 1-2 unit bets when I notice it and I have been very successful. Even when I see it and don't play it, fading the line movement seems to win a lot more than it should.

It's just a trend I have notice. Coin can vouch for it as well.

[No coincidences]

1-0, +4.4U yesterday
28-17, +21.4U thread

PHI +130 (3U to win 3.9)
SEA +121 (2U to win 2.42)

[No coincidences]

HOU -125 (2.5U to win 2)
COL +1.5 (+100) (1U to win 1)

[mlb]

These Wrigley lines are already insane less than 2 weeks into the season. A lot of season left to be -250+ every game.

[BigDofBA]

WTH happened to Kluber?

He can't get anyone out now.

[Breadloser]

The Mets won't score for the rest of the day. Matz will get bombed. Get on Cleveland +400

[iloseagain]

WTH happened to Kluber?

He can't get anyone out now.

unreal.. given up 6 already